A Foreign-Policy Confab That Yale Should Host
"APPEASEMENT!" What a powerful term it has become... It is much stronger a form of opprobrium than even the loaded 'L' word," writes Paul Kennedy, the distinguished assessor of empires at Yale and a Commander of the Order of the British Empire, in his provocatively titled "Time to Appease," in The National Interest.
He acknowledges that it's "risky to ask," even "in a scholarly way, whether acts of appeasing a rival might not sometimes be a good thing. You wanted to continue negotiations with Saddam Hussein? Appeaser.... To wriggle out of Afghanistan? Appeaser. . . Before such abuse of the term gets worse, perhaps we should all take a small History lesson."
Actually, Kennedy's "small history lesson" is magisterial in its specificity and range, but indeed it's as risky as his purpose in offering it: to commend appeasement, not only in rare circumstances, but as a more general policy, to would-be grand strategists (including one at Yale) who've hurled the "A" word at policymakers they consider insufficiently vigilant and aggressive. This controversy is more than semantic. Is there a way out?
Kennedy knows what it's like to be on the receiving end of this kind of "A"-bomb. He condemns statesmen who accommodated rising fascism in the 1920s and 30s, but he insists that "This great [American] hegemon, like all who have preceded it..., cannot escape the constraints of history and geography. Its culture, ideology and domestic politics mean that it can never become Alexandrian, Roman or Napoleonic....
He cites the Princeton political scientist Aaron Friedberg's "rather wonderful book entitled The Weary Titan.... about how a worried Great Britain began to come to terms with the changing world order around 1900,... but it really was a subtle plea for Washington to make a cold-blooded assessment of how many overseas commitments it could sustain over the long haul."
That is Kennedy's plea now, too, and, ever since he published The Rise and Fall of Great Powers in 1987, he's been called a "declininst" who reads the British Empire's descent onto America's future.
The neo-conservative historian Robert Kagan's Dangerous Nation, a bellicose celebration of an expansionist America, is a virtual rebuttal to Kennedy. And it was Kagan's father, Donald Kagan, a scholar of Thucydides and a colleague of Kennedy's at Yale, who actually hurled the "A" word at him in 2001.
A week after the attacks of September 11, the elder Kagan published a column in the Yale Daily News assailing Kennedy and Strobe Talbott -- the former Clinton under-secretary of state who in 2001 was directing Yale's Center for the Study of Globalization (he now heads the Brookings Institution, where Robert Kagan is now a fellow) -- for reckoning not with the threat of terrorism posed by the attacks but, he charged, with "reasons that caused the perpetrators to act and our need to understand and sympathize with them."
Donald Kagan's column -- re-published immediately by the neo-conservative Weekly Standard -- reminded its readers that intellectuals of the 1930s had accepted Hitler's rise as a consequence of Weimar Germany's humiliation by World War I's victors.
Then Kagan wrote: "Kennedy's comments....seem to suggest we react by appeasing the terrorists by a measured retreat....
Noting that Kennedy, on a panel discussing the September 11 attacks two days after they'd occurred, had said that the United States "doth bestride the world like a colossus," Kagan retorted that when Shakespeare's Cassius said that about Julius Caesar, "he hated him and would soon plot to assassinate him" and that his words "probably reflect the feelings of the terrorists toward the United States and, apparently, those of Kennedy."
Such a breach of collegial decorum between eminent professors, especially in a student newspaper, is all-but unthinkable at Yale, where faculty communication is often conducted with arched eyebrows and significant silences. But Kagan had reason to feel aggrieved. In 2000 he and his other son Fred, a West Point professor and future champion of "the surge" in Iraq, had published While America Sleeps, its title an echo of their hero Winston Churchill's While England Slept.
"In the past," they wrote, "the collapse of an international system.... deprived Americans of access to markets or caused American casualties on faraway battlefields. In the future, it will bring attacks on the American homeland.... This warning, in many respects, is already too late.... Now the United States must begin to gird itself for the next round of conflict."
Liberals responded that, just as a stopped clock is right twice a day, obsessives like the Kagans do sometimes mark dangers that others miss but that they seem to live for those dangerous moments: For them, it's always 1938, when Churchill could only wring his hands over Neville Chamberlain's credulity about Hitler, but it's never 1914, when war fever spurred nationalists very much like the Kagans to cheer on the Götterdämmerung that would seed Hitler's rise.
The attacks of September 11 did seem to confirm the Kagans' darkest warnings and strategic doctrines, and, three days later, both Donald and Robert Kagan and their Yale colleague Charles Hill signed a public letter to President George W. Bush, written by William Kristol for the neoconservative Project for The New American Century, urging that "even if evidence does not link Iraq directly to the attack...the eradication of terrorism... must include a determined effort to remove Saddam Hussein."
History hasn't taken long to judge the wisdom of that presumption and the strategy behind it, but September 11 gave the Kagans a "teachable moment," as Bush and Britain's Tony Blair seemed to incarnate an injunction leaping right out of the West's great epics and chronicles: Sometimes, humanist Truth-seekers and republican Power wielders must fight together against common enemies. The attackers had been willing to die for their convoluted convictions and rage; were we willing to die for anything worth defending against them?
Kennedy acknowledges that, "Yes, there comes a time when you have to stand and fight; to draw a line in the sand." But he notes that the anti-appeasement crowd seldom rues Britain's 19th-century appeasements of the United States with territorial and other concessions, and they don't belabor American eagerness in the 1920s to keep up business dealings with Hitler's Reich and float loans for Mussolini. "When," he asks, "do you say to yourself, 'This guy can only be stopped by the threat of serious armed force and, most probably, having to use that force?'"
I'm not wholly on board with Kennedy here. Britain's "appeasement" of former colonists who were rising within a Western Enlightenment dispensation made a lot more sense than Chamberlain's truckling to fascists. And liberal democracy itself may have more at stake in a degree of continued American "hegemony," albeit one less swashbuckling and corrupt, than it would in anything that seems likely to replace it. Kennedy's benign omniscience about such matters is a relief from neoconservative bombast, but it sounds a bit weary, too. Since I posed this assessment yesterday in The Guardian, perhaps we'll learn what some of its British readers are thinking of such arguments now.
There's an alternative that neither Kennedy nor the Kagans address: Since 1947, powerful, armed regimes - of the British in India, segregationists in the American South, Afrikaners in South Africa, and the Soviets in Eastern Europe -- have been brought down without carnage thanks to shifts in popular beliefs about power and legitimacy that have shaken up the ancient relationships of power, violence, and viable authority.
As the classical historian Daniel Tompkins of Temple University puts it, "The field of international relations over the past two decades has witnessed a widespread discursive turn as many political scientists have noticed situations in which argument prevailed over force and state identity and ideation had causal functions."
With a depth and breadth worthy of Kennedy, the writer Jonathan Schell has traced the unprecedented emergence of such constructive, bottom-up configurations of power in whole societies, not fringe movements. His The Unconquerable World, published in 2004 and excerpted in Harper's at that time, shows why power resides at least a little less often now with those who give orders coercively than it does with those who either obey or disobey them creatively with enough good faith, courage, and discipline to avoid descending into the anarchy which the Kagans think always awaits them.
Schell's argument and the recent history driving it deserve far more consideration, and if the Kennedy-Kagan controversy continues, this author of one of this new century's neglected great books and, like them, a teacher at Yale, ought to be up on stage with them.

















An informative and well-balanced comparative analysis, except for the unnecessary degree of appeasement in tiptoeing around the Kagans' outrageous idiocy of 2001-03.
August 13, 2010 9:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not a brilliant scholar of fancy-pants diplomatic history, or a much-decorated noncombatant like Kagan, but isn't there a world of difference between yielding fearfully to belligerent demands and simply not launching hell on earth? Somewhere in between is equitable negotiation. We don't do that now. We attack. No talk, no pantywaist nonsense that so upsets the Kagans - militant at keyboards, absent on battlefields. Down here in the social strata that actually produces troops that kill and die in our pointless wars, I think the vote would be "appease". And faster, please.
August 13, 2010 9:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Since 1947, powerful, armed regimes - of the British in India, segregationists in the American South, Afrikaners in South Africa, and the Soviets in Eastern Europe -- have been brought down without carnage thanks to shifts in popular beliefs about power and legitimacy that have shaken up the ancient relationships of power, violence, and viable authority."
And we all hope Israel is next.
August 13, 2010 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'd rather see the Arab dictatorships and kingdoms reform first.
August 13, 2010 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
"I'd rather see the Arab dictatorships and kingdoms reform first."
We support those dictatorships and kingdoms. It's democracy that worries the US most. MJ Rosenberg himself said on these pages that the US needs to make deals with dictators because arab democracy is dangerous for Israel.
Adam Shatz
mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/08/11/what_do_arabs_really_think_about_iranDepressing to have to repeat this all the time.http://www.lrb.co.uk/v32/n10/adam-shatz/mubaraks-last-breath
August 13, 2010 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I propose another venue for this summit. I suggest that it be hosted at NIACC in order that the people most impacted by the deployments have the opportunity to attend. I suggest those who wish to travel from Yale to the NIACC Conference drive. It might given them some perspective.
August 13, 2010 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Shit happens, 9/11, when we appease rather than taking out a Saddam seems to be the Kristol etal argument against appeasement. However, Kristol wrote a letter to Clinton in 1999 advising him to in essence take out Saddam.
If Kristol is using 9/11 to support his argument against appeasement, he must explain what he bases his argument on given his letter to Clinton in 1999.
Neoliberalism (imperialism,) neoliberal globalization is capital (large corporations financial and non-financial) using government and especially leadership of US government to make it easier to exploit the world's resources and its people. Capital, ideally, needs to be able to sell where and when, to invest where and when, to move money and products in and out of countries and to repatriate profits at will. When governments threaten to nationalize a resource - we attack.
I suspect that Kristol's etal reason for urging war on Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11 and nothing to do with his letter to Clinton. It has to do with neoliberal doctrine.
August 13, 2010 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'd like to know what you mean by this, Jim:
"And liberal democracy itself may have more at stake in a degree of continued American "hegemony," albeit one less swashbuckling and corrupt, than it would in anything that seems likely to replace it."
The neo-Liberalism phelicity alludes to? Marketing and resources?
Also: I wonder about the notion of Diplomacy; for the Kristols and the Kagans, is it always at the tip of a sword, otherwise just appeasement?
Is US diplomacy more bellicose now than it needs to be? I'm losing track.
August 13, 2010 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
All this "liberal democracy" stuff made a lot more sense back in the day when John F. Kennedy, George Bush, Sr., and an Iowa farmer like my father all shared the common experience of a generation.
You'll host your fine gathering at Yale, but whatever policies you come up with won't be paid for with the blood of Yale students as they carry their swords into the imperial battle. They aren't going near any battle unless you count hedge fund wars. How can you discuss "appeasement" in an environment that depends on other people's kids fighting the wars?
Liberal democracies depend of values liked shared sacrifice.
August 13, 2010 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
History is Bunk!
For the reason that there is no such thing as history, only interpretation of events which were the result of facts whose contingent nature will never be repeated. Boiled down to its basics history is nothing but one of many arguments in search of a national elite to sponsor it.
Successful historians are opportunists, sycophants attuned to the sociopolitical and economic needs of the elite of the moment.
August 13, 2010 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was going to teach history until I discovered that I had to know how to coach basketball to get hired.
August 13, 2010 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Bluebell -- I taught studio art, but only with the proviso that I also maintain current shows inn the gallery, produce the yearbook (which lasted all year rather than one season) as well as a history of the school....plus dorm duty and weekend duty... in other words -- you made the right choice to "just say no." Wish I had, as the combination of all of the above, under a corrupt administration, truly broke me -- all for for appropriately slavish wages.
August 13, 2010 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, if you earned a pension, they'll probably be coming after that too.
August 14, 2010 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
There you go again Ellen mixing up epistemology and metaphysics. Metaphysically speaking history is that which actually happened. Granted at the scale that historians work (massive scale) it is impossible to reproduce in text "what exactly happened" in all its detail, that's an epistemological constraint.
But to say that History is nothing but interpretation is to imply that it is metaphysically ungrounded and thus made out of whole cloth ( http://alt-usage-english.org/excerpts/fxwholec.html) . But there is a difference between fiction and even the most distorted historical interpretation.
I do agree with you however that "historians" as they are, are (self?)constrained by what is deemed acceptable "interpretation" in their time as well as such things as their own prejudices and intellectual limitations.
August 13, 2010 11:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
What happened, however difficult it may be to discover, is history; History, on the other hand, is a list of facts selected by the Historian and argued to be the cause(s) of what happened.
What happened is of interest only to antiquarians; why, according to History, it happened is of principal interest to salesmen whose wares will, the "disinterested science" assures us, prevent or foster the recurrence of that history.
August 14, 2010 1:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
That x caused y is just as much a fact-schema (part of objective reality) as that z is round is. Causal relations (unless we take Hume seriously) are just as much part of history as of History.*
Reality is not composed primarily of unconnected facts (if there even are such things) even if--as you say (and I doubt it)--antiquarians are wont to take note of them by amassing them in conceptual heaps. Reality is intrinsically a fabric.
But here is the thing no matter how prevaricating the “historian” might be nobody would claim that he is in the business of writing fiction in the strict sense of the word. To say that he is, is to be unfair to the fiction writer.
* (leaving aside acausal cosmologies)
August 14, 2010 2:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, but getting from x to y calls for interpretation which as someone said -- now I remember who said it, it was moi -- is all that History is.
August 14, 2010 4:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's where you make the same mistate over and over in your writing. Getting from x to y requres only the forces of nature to be in effect and not some feeble mind interpreting anything. Nature does not need your intervention in order to accomplish Her causal dance. Geesh Ellen, get a grip!!
August 14, 2010 10:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
The world "speaks for itself," eh?
And it communicates in a language which one godlike man, Andrew Strat, understands directly -- sans interpretation.
August 15, 2010 7:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I never claimed to have an edge on the truth. My only claim is that it makes no sense to talk of truth if all you require is interpretation without acknowledging that it is an interpretation OF reality and not something that has no relation to it. That's all we are saying.
I personally believe that historical interpretations can be ranked in terms of being more plausible or less plausible. The alternative is all interpretations are on an equal footing--namely--nowhere different than fictional accounts. That simply is NOT the case Ellen.
August 15, 2010 9:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
obviously when I said "the world speaks for itself" I was using metaphor. The world does not speak except in creatures such as ourselves. The world just IS, which you find hard to accept for some curious reason.
August 15, 2010 9:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
The ancients INTERPRETED Lightning as the actions of a divinity they called Zeus. We take lightning to be an electrical discharge from sky to ground due to a sufficiently high potential difference between the two. I happened to believe that our modern explanation/interpretation is closer to the truth than that of the ancients. But note those ancients and the moderns BOTH agree that something (i.e. a real thing) causes lightning and neither they nor we subscribe to the bizarre notion that there is no fact of the matter as to what causes lightning.
August 15, 2010 9:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Foreign policy for those not attending Yale:
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/gallery?Avis=D2&Dato=20100806&Kategori=NEWS&Lopenr=8060807&Ref=PH
August 14, 2010 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
The most important thing world leaders could do right now to diffuse potential conflict is to hold another Bretton Woods summit, where we discuss how to write down all this massive debt held by governments all over the world. We are past the point of ever paying ours off, so writing it off is our only alternative. Fortunately, many other nations are in the same boat.
August 14, 2010 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
What? You're expecting the Second Coming of J.M.Keynes?
August 15, 2010 6:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Cool photo, Ellen.
August 15, 2010 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Better Keynes than Cain and Able.
August 16, 2010 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
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August 18, 2010 9:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
The most important thing world leaders could do right now to diffuse potential conflict is to hold another Bretton Woods summit, where we discuss how to write down all this massive debt held by governments all over the world. We are past the point of ever paying ours off, so writing it off is our only alternative. Fortunately, many other nations are in the same boat.
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August 20, 2010 8:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
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August 24, 2010 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink