The Vanishing American Consumer And The Coming Trade War
President Obama has vowed to double U.S. exports within the next five years. That's because exports are critical for rebooting the American economy. It's clear American consumers can't get the economy going on their own. They can't restart the jobs machine. They've run out of money and credit.
It's not just that one out of four Americans is unemployed or underemployed (working part-time, overqualified, or at a lower wage than before). More significantly, the Great Recession burst the housing bubble that had let American consumers turn their homes into ATMs. Now the cash machines are closed.
So the Administration figures foreign consumers will have to fill the gap.
Problem is, most other economies also relied on American consumers. Remember the trade gap? Americans used to be the world's biggest and most reliable customers - sucking in high-tech gadgets assembled in China, car parts from Japan, shirts and shoes from Southeast Asia, and precision instruments from Germany.
With American consumers pulling back, these other economies have also been slowing down. Their unemployment is rising.
Last week I attended a conference with global business executives. When I asked them where they expected to find new customers to replace Americans who are pulling back, they all said China and India and quoted me the same number: 800 million new middle-class consumers from these and other fast-developing countries over the next decade.
Yes, but. As of now China and India are still relying on net exports to fuel their growth. Even if you think their middle classes will eventually become so big and rich they can buy everything these nations will be able to produce, that doesn't mean they'll also buy what the rest of the world produces.
Yes, global companies will do wonderfully well. General Motors is well on the way to selling more cars in China than it does in the U.S. But American workers won't get the jobs, and nor will workers in Europe, Japan, or the rest of the world. GM makes the cars it sells to Chinese consumers in China.
Meanwhile, the productive capacities of China and India will continue to grow: More workers, more factories, more high-tech equipment, more offices. The buying power of their middle classes will have to expand rapidly just to catch up with what these nations will be able to produce.
This means Obama and others won't easily find the export markets they need to create enough jobs to make up for the vanishing American consumer.
When the world's productive capacities exceed the buying power of the world's consumers, every government wants to increase exports and discourage imports. That spells trade war.
Last week the representatives of the world's 20 biggest economies vowed to slash their budget deficits by half by 2013. The result will be even less domestic demand and even more pressure to export in order to avoid higher joblessness.
We're unlikely to see a repeat of the disastrous Smoot-Hawley tariffs that worsened and lengthened the Great Depression. But you can forget trade-opening agreements. In Toronto last week, the G-20 leaders dropped their 2009 pledge to finish the Doha round this year. In the U.S., agreements with South Korea, Panama, and Columbia are languishing.
And watch out for under-the-radar protectionist moves. Since the start of 2008, when the Great Recession began, countries around the world have already imposed at least 443 measures to block imports, according to the Center for Economic Policy Research.
This is just the start.

















But who knows? We should know, but we don't.
BLS Report June 2010
Employed persons:
Persons 16 years and over in the civilian noninstitutional population who, during the reference week, (a) did any work at all (at least 1 hour) as paid employees; worked in their own business, profession, or on their own farm, or worked 15 hours or more as unpaid workers in an enterprise operated by a member of the family; and (b) all those who were not working but who had jobs or businesses from which they were temporarily absent because of vacation, illness, bad weather, childcare problems, maternity or paternity leave, labor-management dispute, job training, or other family or personal reasons, whether or not they were paid for the time off or were seeking other jobs.
Unemployed persons:
Persons are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work.
.
July 12, 2010 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
So is this coming protectionism good or bad? From your past writings I've gotten the sense that you favored establishing trade barriers to protect American jobs.
July 12, 2010 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think we need to acknowledge that our current life style is non-sustainable. Our living standards are based on buying stuff cheap, made in another country by vastly underpaid workers. To get the money to buy that cheap stuff we have been cashing in our equity in our homes. The cash machine is now virtually empty, and the jobs that generated our income are largely gone.
Also, we built our economy on the raw materials we could obtain cheaply from other countries. But, those countries now demand to be paid more nearly what the raw materials are worth. Oil is an example.
This is not a disaster. If you want to talk about a disaster, let's discuss how a small group of our citizens now own a huge percentage of all of the wealth of the nation, and that percentage is going up, as those wealthy folks now own the government too. This is what is going to destroy our country.
Living without lots of cheap stuff isn't going to harm us at all. Living is a joy that doesn't depend at all on lots of cheap stuff.
But, living as serfs beholden to the capitalists who own everything harms all of us beyond belief.
July 12, 2010 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well said, and so the obvious, rational conclusion IMO is that we should all make those individual life-changing decisions which enable us to ditch both the cheap stuff and our reliance on corporations.
What we should not do is to stay on autopilot and cry for help from the government.
July 12, 2010 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
"It's clear American consumers can't get the economy going on their own. They can't restart the jobs machine. They've run out of money and credit."
This is why the "economic stimulus package" went to banks and auto companies (corporations), rather than to individual Americans?
.
July 14, 2010 8:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think we need to acknowledge that our current life style is non-sustainable. Our living standards are based on buying stuff cheap, made in another country by vastly underpaid workers. To get the money to buy that cheap stuff we have been cashing in our equity in our homes. The cash machine is now virtually empty, and the jobs that generated our income are largely gone.
It was done under the guise that the better that the rich do the better we all do. Which is of course a lie. And when the economy really went south, and the American consumers found themselves in dire straits, the rich said "up your's baby, we got ours, and the rest of you can go pound sand". The rubber has met the road on a fundamental truth...
July 12, 2010 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
The high living standards the we enjoyed from 1950s through the 1970s were paid for to a large extent by the federal government through defense contracts for the cold war, Korean War and Vietnam War. As well as the the space race.
Even the Interstate Highway system was partially funded for defense purposes with the passage of the National Interstate and Defense Highways Act of 1956.
Also in the late 1970s some of out largest corporations started to be run by people who were only interested in short term profits and then systematically trashed and sold off. Their plants close when they no-longer proved to be profitable enough.
C
July 12, 2010 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Living without lots of cheap stuff isn't going to harm us at all. Living is a joy that doesn't depend at all on lots of cheap stuff.
But, living as serfs beholden to the capitalists who own everything harms all of us beyond belief.
well said!
July 12, 2010 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's unfortunate to see Professor Reich repeating US Chamber of Commerce talking points, though it reveals just how far right wing economic premises have taken over the thinking of even so-called liberals.
let's unpack the oversights and untruths (in no particular order)which Prof Reich, whom I respect, has unfortunately put forward:
"the disastrous Smoot-Hawley tariffs that worsened and lengthened the Great Depression": -
A favorite untruth of the economic royalists, straight from the Wall Street Journal editorial page and the pen of Jude Wanniski, notorious crackpot, fabulist and supporter of Slobodan Milosevic.
Paul Krugman knocked this particular canard down, let's see, 2 days ago:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/10/hayek-trade-restrictions-and-the-great-depression/
Professor Reich is absolutely right when he says that American middle-class families used their homes as ATMS, borrowing against their bubble-inflated values to pay for consumer spending (which maintained the illusion of American prosperity for the last decade or two).
He also has it right that most of that spending went for imported goods "high-tech gadgets assembled in China, car parts from Japan, shirts and shoes from Southeast Asia, and precision instruments from Germany."
He is correct to identify the role American consumer played as the engine of the world economy, the consumer of last resort. From that, he properly questions why we should be able to export our way to prosperity, as the Administration proposes, since the rest of the world has been using our market to export its way to prosperity.
But while Bob correctly questions the Administration's proposal- "President Obama has vowed to double U.S. exports within the next five years" - and although he convincingly concludes there aren't enough foreign consumers to fill the gap - and even after he shows that domestic production in China and India will fill demand in those countries, he still stubbornly clings to the false premise of the Administration's flawed policy: "exports are critical for rebooting the American economy."
Why? What word is conspicuous in its absence? Why does Prof Reich, like so many mainstream commentators, have a blind spot to imports? If foreign consumers are not there to purchase the goods we want to produce and sell them, how about we produce more of the goods we consume here at home.
Instead of doubling exports in five years to cut the trade deficit in half, how about we halve the deficit cutting imports in half - make the crap here, and put our people to work in the process.
Well, the US (Multinational) Chamber of Commerce and the big-box cheap retailer lobby, if not Professor Reich, would call this "protectionism."
Nonsense.
One final note to the good professor regarding his title "The Vanishing American Consumer and the Coming Trade War"
The trade war is not coming - it's been here. And we've been losing. (Which is why the American consumer is vanishing.)
As Michael Moore, and Walter Reuther before him, said, when the Big Three (and the same goes for any manufacturer) moved production offshore, they weren't just firing their workers - they were firing their customers.
To repeat, we were able to maintain the illusion of prosperity despite the loss of stable jobs and incomes for a substantial number of families because the customers/ex-workers papered over the predicament by borrowing against their homes.
Until we reinvigorate domestic production, employment and demand by putting our citizens back to work producing the goods we consume and paying them enough to buy the goods they produce (Fordism), there is no solution to the economic ditch we've landed in thanks to the Washington/Geneva consensus.
July 12, 2010 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bravo.
"when the Big Three (and the same goes for any manufacturer) moved production offshore, they weren't just firing their workers - they were firing their customers."
Henry Ford had it right. When asked why he was paying his workers such a high salary, he said it was so they could buy the cars they were producing.
.
July 14, 2010 8:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's unfortunate to see Professor Reich repeating US Chamber of Commerce talking points, though it reveals just how far right wing economic premises have taken over the thinking of even so-called liberals.
let's unpack the oversights and untruths (in no particular order)which Prof Reich, whom I respect, has unfortunately put forward:
"the disastrous Smoot-Hawley tariffs that worsened and lengthened the Great Depression": -
A favorite untruth of the economic royalists, straight from the Wall Street Journal editorial page and the pen of Jude Wanniski, notorious crackpot, fabulist and supporter of Slobodan Milosevic.
Paul Krugman knocked this particular canard down, let's see, 2 days ago:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/10/hayek-trade-restrictions-and-the-great-depression/
Professor Reich is absolutely right when he says that American middle-class families used their homes as ATMS, borrowing against their bubble-inflated values to pay for consumer spending (which maintained the illusion of American prosperity for the last decade or two).
He also has it right that most of that spending went for imported goods "high-tech gadgets assembled in China, car parts from Japan, shirts and shoes from Southeast Asia, and precision instruments from Germany."
He is correct to identify the role American consumer played as the engine of the world economy, the consumer of last resort. From that, he properly questions why we should be able to export our way to prosperity, as the Administration proposes, since the rest of the world has been using our market to export its way to prosperity.
But while Bob correctly questions the Administration's proposal- "President Obama has vowed to double U.S. exports within the next five years" - and although he convincingly concludes there aren't enough foreign consumers to fill the gap - and even after he shows that domestic production in China and India will fill demand in those countries, he still stubbornly clings to the false premise of the Administration's flawed policy: "exports are critical for rebooting the American economy."
Why? What word is conspicuous in its absence? Why does Prof Reich, like so many mainstream commentators, have a blind spot to imports? If foreign consumers are not there to purchase the goods we want to produce and sell them, how about we produce more of the goods we consume here at home.
Instead of doubling exports in five years to cut the trade deficit in half, how about we halve the deficit cutting imports in half - make the crap here, and put our people to work in the process.
Well, the US (Multinational) Chamber of Commerce and the big-box cheap retailer lobby, if not Professor Reich, would call this "protectionism."
Nonsense.
One final note to the good professor regarding his title "The Vanishing American Consumer and the Coming Trade War"
The trade war is not coming - it's been here. And we've been losing. (Which is why the American consumer is vanishing.)
As Michael Moore, and Walter Reuther before him, said, when the Big Three (and the same goes for any manufacturer) moved production offshore, they weren't just firing their workers - they were firing their customers.
To repeat, we were able to maintain the illusion of prosperity despite the loss of stable jobs and incomes for a substantial number of families because the customers/ex-workers papered over the predicament by borrowing against their homes.
Until we reinvigorate domestic production, employment and demand by putting our citizens back to work producing the goods we consume and paying them enough to buy the goods they produce (Fordism), there is no solution to the economic ditch we've landed in thanks to the Washington/Geneva consensus.
July 12, 2010 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just to add one obvious factor to our prospects for growth and increased employment; 800 million more people in Asia who want to drive a car and eat meat will massively increase demand for fossil fuels, even if half of them are electric cars and free range chickens. Every time there is a surge in demand the increased price for oil will drive up the cost of everything worldwide.
All of our political memes are premised on the economics of expansion because, for the most part, that has been our experience for the last 70 years. We are now experiencing the economics of contraction which means the underlying political reality is the apportionment of loss. The wealthy are out to socialize their losses and preserve liquid assets so they can consolidate their gains when the underlying fundamentals bring markets back to reality.
July 12, 2010 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good point on our economic models being premised on endless expansion, BobFred2.
Seen in this light, the economic system we (most of us) live in takes on an aspect of a Ponzi scheme.
One of the economic models not premised on endless expansion is Fordism (for lack of a better term), which says pay workers enough to buy the goods they produce. It is in a sense a closed-loop system. Ford understood he needed to create a mass market for the goods his factories would mass produce.
Industrial mass production, which Ford helped advance, has been the despoiler of the planet. However, closed loop manufacturing, which produces no waste by recycling it into the production process, promises to be the solution.
Fordism, ideally, is closer to closed loop (or perpetual motion machine) than Ponzi scheme: it distributes profits to workers who spend that money buying products from the company, which profits and then distributes the profits to the workers, who can then spend, etc etc.
July 12, 2010 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah the wonderful perpetual motion machine! Clearly it isn't possible for a company to pay its 100 workers enough so those 100 can buy the 100,000 gadgets the company produces. It just can't work that way.
But, it can work when all 100,000 industries pay well enough so all of each of their 100 employees can buy the 100,000 different gadgets they all produce. That does lead to inflation in the price of gadgets. But, the system eventually stabilizes, as long as the industries don't seek to "improve the bottom line" every quarter by hook or crook. And, that improvement normally means less pay and benefits for the employees.
That type economy is the traditional economy, with few billionaires, little or no need for a "financial sector", and no collateralised debt obligations. Plus, the compensation of managers cannot be the current several 100's times that of the workers. In other words greed cannot be the driver of the economy.
July 12, 2010 6:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
To dream ... the impossible dream ...
To fight ... the unbeatable foe ...
To bear ... with unbearable sorrow ...
To run ... where the brave dare not go ...
To right ... the unrightable wrong ...
To love ... pure and chaste from afar ...
To try ... when your arms are too weary ...
To reach ... the unreachable star ...
C
July 12, 2010 6:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not only a trade war, but also a war against American retirees
From an email I received
“If you sell your $400,000 home, there will be a $15,200 tax. This bill is set to screw the retiring generation who often downsize their homes.”
Health law’s heavy impact (3.8% tax on home sales)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2503010/posts
July 12, 2010 8:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
In today's economy, if you sell your $400,000 home, that house probably cost you either $800,000 or $20,000, depending on when you bought it. If the former, you owe no taxes - no profit, no tax. If the latter, you made $380,000, so of course you owe taxes on the profit. In any case, an owner of a $400,000 home is not in financial difficulty. And, a $15,000 tax is a tax rate of less than 4%, which is an extremely low tax.
July 12, 2010 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink