US Rejects Brazil, Turkish Iran Offer -- Chooses The AIPAC Route
The Obama administration is essentially ignoring the Iranian nuclear deal brokered by Turkey and Brazil.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton responded today by announcing that the United States has reached an agreement on sanctions with the other permanent members of the Security Council, including Russia and China.
She said nothing about the deal brokered by our Turkish and Brazilian allies even though we strongly promoted an almost identical deal last fall. Furthermore, the administration had encouraged the Turkish and Brazilian effort, but now, with an agreement in hand, we have gone mute. What a blunder!
No doubt, skepticism about Iranian intentions is well-placed. Last fall, the administration embraced a deal it believed the Iranians were supporting only to have Tehran back off in the face of opposition from hardliners.
But we should know the pattern.
The Iranian leadership tends to respond to its most reactionary and chauvinistic elements the same way Israel's does. Israeli prime ministers refuse to cross the powerful settler lobby. Iranian leaders turn tail in the face of opposition from the hard-line clerics, the Revolutionary Guard and their various allies.
That is why the proposal could easily disappear into the spring mist. But that does not mean we should simply pretend that it doesn't exist. Or that Brazil and Turkey's effort to get the Iranians to agree to a deal should be ignored. How does that advance US interests?
Since FDR's day, American leaders have given lip service to the idea that the planet should not be run by a few superpowers. Turkey and Brazil are "next tier" powers and deserve credit for stepping up to help resolve the stalemate over Tehran's nuclear development.
Under the terms of the deal, Iran would send 1200kg of low-enriched uranium to Turkey and, in return, will receive 120kg of enriched nuclear fuel for use in a medical research reactor for cancer treatment.
This is essentially the same deal the United States endorsed back in the fall of 2009, although the involvement of Turkey and Brazil is new.
The Turkish/Brazilian package is not perfect. Iran would send out of the country less low-enriched uranium than under the 2009 proposal. Iran would also continue its own uranium enrichment program, although only to a level of 20%, far below the threshold for producing a nuclear weapon.
But so what? Few things in international politics are perfect, or even close.
At the very least, the proposal offers a vehicle for the renewal of talks (direct, indirect, whatever) over Iran's nuclear program. At best, it offers a way to end the crisis and commence a dialogue with Iran on the whole host of issues that divide us -- including Iranian support for Hezbollah and other terrorists.
That dialogue should also cover the one issue the United States refuses even to discuss: Israel's nuclear arsenal.
This is not to say that Israel does not need a nuclear deterrent. But it is simply ridiculous to believe that America can ever be taken seriously on proliferation issues while our President's response to any question about Israel's 200-plus weapons is to look away and say "next question." Does anyone outside of Washington or Jerusalem believe that we can simultaneously wink both eyes at Israel's existing nuclear arsenal and insist that Iran end all its efforts at any enrichment?
Add to that the fact that US policy on Iran is AIPAC's policy.
AIPAC wanted no part of the Turkish/Brazil deal, wants the international sanctions and are happily waiting for both Houses of Congress to pass its bills that would, in AIPAC's lovely term, apply "crippling sanctions" to the Iranian people by blocking all oil exports to the country.
So, we can thank the lobby for pushing Obama to ignore the Brazil/Turkey opportunity, for vehemently exempting Israel from international nonproliferation policies, and for a gas embargo that will inflict suffering on the Iranian people while bolstering the regime.
But sanctions will not work -- whether multilateral or unilateral. They will only deprive ordinary Iranians (including, of course, old people, women and children) of some of life's necessities -- thereby punishing people who are being punished enough by having to live under a repressive regime. And they will enrich the worst elements in Iranian society who will sell the gas they easily corner at an astronomical profit.
Nor will sanctions weaken the regime. More likely, they will strengthen a teetering dictatorship by providing it the outside enemy it needs to galvanize support it does not currently enjoy.
Of course, many advocates of sanctions don't expect or even want them to succeed. They simply want to exhaust the sanctions options to get the option they prefer: an attack on Iranian nuclear sites by Israel or the United States.
A military strike on Iran is no option at all. Not only would it jeopardize US interests throughout the Arab and Muslim world (including, most significantly, our troops), it would likely produce a devastating attack on Israel by Hezbollah which is based on Israel's northern border. The idea of Israelis being forced to flee from towns and cities as far south as Tel Aviv is horrific to contemplate.
Nonetheless, the neocons and others who championed war with Iraq are undaunted by the possibility of an even worse debacle in Iran.
At this point, it is impossible to know how this will all play out. But we can say this. Those in the media (and among the neocon establishment) who are treating the Turkish-Brazilian proposal as some sort of threat to US interests are as wrongheaded in 2010 as they were in 2002-3. Whether we like it or not, Iran will have a say in determining the nature of its nuclear program. Acting as if it doesn't, as if we decide, will only encourage the most xenophobic elements in that country. (Imagine telling the Israelis that they have to implement our plan for them!)
The goal of America's Iranian policy should not be exacerbating the situation but defusing it. If the Turkish-Brazilian proposal leads to the export of Iran's nuclear material and to a US-Iranian dialogue on all the issues that divide us, we will all be better off.
Al Smith, the 1928 Democratic candidate for President, used to say: "The only cure for the ills of democracy is more democracy." The same goes for diplomacy, especially in a world with 20,000 nuclear warheads.
Sanctions are not the answer.
Clinton didn't ignore the Iran-Brazil-Turkey deal; on the opposite, she took it as a sign that it was more urgent than ever to press China and Russia to agree to some sort of "UN sanctions", whatever that means in reality (every couple of weeks, Clinton claims to have received such an agreement from Moscow and Beijing). This in turn will allow the US and the EU to add some really "crippling" sanctions of their own, under the cover of the UN Security Council: for the media and the public, they will seem more legitimate, although the two sets of policies won't be related.
The lesson here is that all this has nothing to do with the new Brazil-Turkey deal, or even the Iranian non-existing nuclear weapon program. It is obvious by now that harsh sanctions are the real and only goal - as a prelude to "regime change", by war if necessary. The debate over the nuclear program is the means, not the end.
Until a puppet in the mold of Karzai is in charge in Teheran, no deal will ever be good enough for the warmongers in Washington (including Obama), Europe and Israel.
May 19, 2010 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
The only connection to Aipac would be the lack of trust in both selected groups of leadership!
Neither country has duly elected leaders ! Thee World has little to no trust in anything they may agree to...The agreement lead by Lula is a small side deal...that Iran was using to divert attention and avoid more sanctions..Sounds familiar!...
May 21, 2010 9:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think this announcement is as convincing an answer to the efforts undertaken in Tehran over the last few days as any we çizgi film izle could provide," Mrs. Clinton said. Despite her trumpeting, some doubt the degree of enthusism among our Big-Player partners. fal bak türkçe fal siteniz If they do finally come through, however, we can expect bedava çizgi film izle Russia to be welcomed back into our VIP lounge, fal bak and more duty-free Chinese merchandise fal bak on American shelves and poisoning our homes. Iran, çizgi film izle of course, says the swap is off if the UN fal bak applies sanctions.
January 25, 2011 12:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Obama administration is a center-right administration, and although Obama is good with rhetorics, he has failed miserably on all tracks domestically and internationally. There was a big hope that is turning to be a huge gust of wind (or should I say fart!?) void of any substance. However, it is not only Obama's fault. The American democratic system is broken (if ever there was a democracy!). One hand,there is a huge clique of public representatives (congressmen and senators), who are willing to sell their souls to the highest bidder and AIPAC and the like are striving on it. AIPAC roars and the poodle-president whimpers (State Secretary Clinton is only happy to serve) and on the other hand the huge military budget, which makes almost half of the American deficit, must be maintained at any cost to lubricate the falling (failed!) capitalist economy. Endless imperialist games and oppression of the poor. It is not the force of the law, but the force of the mighty and powerful. But, like all empires, one day, they will come down crashing on their own weight.
Happily, we might be seeing the end of an empire and the rise of economically powerful small states that will want to challenge the the most powerful Emperor.
The old emperor will still show some gist in him for some time to come and may even prove that he still a powerful as ever. Nevertheless, he will be like the old European aristocracy, living beyond his means, minting a lot of coins with his own image that will turn out to be worthless someday.
Alas, Israel, with the help AIPAC and the guilt of Europeans for the holocaust, is capable of subduing the Palestinians (the latest news is that Israel is preparing to reoccupy Gaza). However, it will be a terrible mistake, for which it might have to pay dearly.
Israel has a golden opportunity to negotiate real peace that it should not waste instead of inciting the west to declare war on Iran.
May 19, 2010 10:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
"That dialogue should also cover the one issue the United States refuses even to discuss: Israel's nuclear arsenal.
This is not to say that Israel does not need a nuclear deterrent."
This is incoherent. You're saying first that the isssues of Iranian and Israeli nuclear arms need to be tied. Then you're strongly implying that Israel should keep it's nuclear arms.
If Iran's nuclear program is necessarily tied to Israeli capabilities and if Israel should not give up those capabilities, how does this lead towards a nuclear-free Iran? There's nothing there to negotiate.
May 19, 2010 10:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
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Dear Sir,
please find below an excellent 'partner piece' to your article written by nom de plume author San Fernando Curt,
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"...One hundred and forty-five years ago this month, Confederate President Jefferson Davis roamed the countryside of Virginia and the tidewater states, his administrative offices a creaking buggy caked with mud and horseshit. Lee had surrendered at Appomattox and the war was over, but before he was captured by Union troops, Davis spent his lonely hejira urging the South to fight on.
But what had been the Confederacy was broke, broken and sick of war - so his battle cries were rigorously ignored.
That's the hapless situation in which the U.S. now finds itself. Despite a brokered nuclear deal that cut us out of the loop and yet accomplished everything we said we wanted from Iran only months ago, Washington and our jackass media have decided to deny reality and reject the Brazil-Turkey agreement for chickenshit reasons.
We're huffing and putting to get back on track with excruciating sanctions applied to the Persian State. but few are enthralled by our bombast. This deal stole our thunder. Iran looks like the good guy, the reasonable player in this tragicomedy.
We're the bloodthirsty buffoon, prowling the wilderness - raving, threatening and howling at the moon.
Our stealth-neoconservative press and the Israel Lobby have done what legions of Marxist states and true-believers here at home failed to do - they've kicked America out of first class and reduced us to coach.
Great.
At issue is a deal reached Sunday between foreign ministers of Iran, Brazil and Turkey calling for Iran to hand over nearly half of its estimated supply of low-enriched uranium to Turkey. Within a year, according to CNN International, Western governments and the International Atomic Energy Agency would be expected to exchange 1,200 kilograms of 3.5-percent enriched uranium for 120 kilograms of 20 percent medium-enriched uranium.
An emerging power in its own right, Brazil has been critical of our violence and bullying, and is among a growing chorus of nations calling on the U.S. to stop strafing the world. The pact undercuts the case for American and Israel-backed sanctions against Iran to halt an apparently nonexistent nuclear weapons program; this sideswipe wasn't so much to rub our nose in our own ineffectuality as much as chill our drive for yet another idiotic war.
Somebody had to.
Two old policy hands from the Clinton and Bush I administrations were on Newshour last night, both agreeing the swap deal would stymie UN sanctions. Nevertheless, our pit bull Secretary of State told Congress this morning that a draft resolution applying the fourth - fourth! - round of sanctions on Iran has "100 percent" backing of Russia and China, and would be circulated to the UN Security Council Today. Today!
"I think this announcement is as convincing an answer to the efforts undertaken in Tehran over the last few days as any we could provide," Mrs. Clinton said. Despite her trumpeting, some doubt the degree of enthusism among our Big-Player partners. If they do finally come through, however, we can expect Russia to be welcomed back into our VIP lounge, and more duty-free Chinese merchandise on American shelves and poisoning our homes. Iran, of course, says the swap is off if the UN applies sanctions.
Ah... geopolitics.
We want Iran reduced to vassal state in the Mideast, so it's no longer a threat to our brave li'l ally, and we'll move heaven and earth to do it. Iran looks like it's cooperating with our incessant demands regarding its nuclear program? We just move the bar higher. The way we've rigged the game, Iran can't comply until it's fully Jordanized.
We'd expect the Washington Post to slag the Brazil-Turkey deal, but even the liberal blog world is foursquare against it, as former ambassador Marc Ginsberg is in the Huffpo:
Don't be fooled! Swapping fuel for fuel rods is a circus side show... If this eleventh hour "breakthrough" heralds an ironclad commitment by Iran's ruling clique in the face of a tougher sanctions hammer to come clean and fulfill its international treaty obligations to abide by the NPT and UN Security Council resolutions, well then, "Hallelujah!"
And just in case I'll place a bottle of Champagne Philiponnat Clos de Goisses on ice.
OK, Mr. Ginsberg. We get it: You have very, very high-falutin' standards..."
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"A military strike on Iran is no option at all. Not only would it jeopardize US interests throughout the Arab and Muslim world (including, most significantly, our troops), it would likely produce a devastating attack on Israel by Hezbollah which is based on Israel's northern border. The idea of Israelis being forced to flee from towns and cities as far south as Tel Aviv is horrific to contemplate."
MJ. Israel has been preparing for another go @ Lebanon ever since 2006. Everyone (outside of the US ) is quite aware of the situation. The Israeli thinking is to preemptively thwart any possibility of Lebanese/Syrian retaliation in advance of a strike on Iran. The assumption that Hezbollah would automatically attack Israel on Iran's behalf is based on uninformed conjecture and utter bullshit about Hezbollah's priorities. All politics are local and the recent gains by Hezbollah in Lebanon's crazy political milieu would be completely eviscerated by unprovoked aggression against Israel.
Of course, HA and the Lebanese Armed Forces and the whole of the Lebanese polity (with the possible exception of some Maronite Christians) would be united in defending Lebanon from Israeli aggressions. As would the growing coalition of nation states in the region.
The situation re alliances has undergone some drastic shifts over the past several years:
........
......
..........
http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100520/FOREIGN/705199919/1002
PS. Tel Aviv (& points south) will not be a safe refuge if Israel starts another regional war.
May 20, 2010 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
“This will explain to Obama that if he can stop Israel from starting a war, the Syrians and Hizbollah will not start one; in other words, Obama can keep the peace in the region this summer.”
The question then becomes: "Does Obama really want peace in the Middle East?"
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To paraphrase LBJ re Walter Cronkite: "If we've lost MJ, we've lost the war."
I suspect the U.S. just lost Russia and China, too. Brazil and Turkey are not going to sit quietly while their efforts are trashed, either.
Chinese and Russian tentative support for sanctions (hurriedly proclaimed by Clinton) was predicated on Iranian non-cooperation. The Brazil-Turkey deal fundamentally changes the dynamic.
Ball's in your court, Mr. President.
May 21, 2010 3:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
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"I think this announcement is as convincing an answer to the efforts undertaken in Tehran over the last few days as any we could provide," Mrs. Clinton said. Despite her trumpeting, some doubt the degree of enthusism among our Big-Player partners. يوتيوبوسائط If they do finally come through, however, we can expect Russia to be welcomed back into our VIP lounge, and more duty-free Chinese merchandise on American shelves and poisoning our homes. Iran, of course, says the swap is off if the UN applies sanctions.
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April 25, 2011 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
I dunno if nuclear really works for everyone. You know what happen to japan with there nuclear. The consequences with this is forever. It's not bec. they're allies they are goin' to say yes. That's great decision from them. federal pell grant
April 25, 2011 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
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April 26, 2011 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, the US rejected the Turkish offer huh? Wonder whose interests are being served here.
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April 27, 2011 12:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Iran has for some time now been contending that they're using nuclear energy for scientific and medical purposes, and not for armaments. This is despite the fact that Iran refuses to let international observers check out their nuclear facilities.
Very interesting discussion indeed.
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April 27, 2011 12:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
May I digress a bit here and touch on Donald Trump and his great relationship with "The blacks."
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April 27, 2011 12:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
I would think that america's involvement is fueled by self interest. Let's see where this heading.
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What's the lesson here is that all this has nothing new in Brazil and Turkey a lot, or even non-existent Iranian nuclear weapons program. It is clear now that the tough sanctions against the real and only goal - a prelude to "regime change" by war if necessary. Debate on the nuclear program is a tool, not an end.
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April 28, 2011 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
"They will only deprive ordinary Iranians (including, of course, old people, women and children) of some of life's necessities -- thereby punishing people who are being punished enough by having to live under a repressive regime. And they will enrich the worst elements in Iranian society who will sell the gas they easily corner at an astronomical profit." - how true!!
You have to see the life in Iran for yourself to fully grasp whom it hits! Pity only a handful of people understand this!!
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