Too Dumb to Breathe in California
I had been sympathetic to the people of California. They got stuck in the epicenter of the housing bubble. When it burst it both gave the state a more severe recession than the rest of the country and also wreaked havoc on the state budget. This set the people of the state up for a double whammy because their archaic budget process left them ill-equipped to cope with the massive budget shortfalls created by the downturn.
But, rather than trying to get serious in the face of a real crisis, the legislators in California got loopy. In March of last year the state legislature set aside $100 million for people who bought new homes. This was badly thought out policy which could perhaps be forgiven as a panic response to an economy and housing market in free fall.
But, now they have done it again.
The state legislature created two separate tax credits. One will provide up to $10,000 to first-time homebuyers. The other will provide up $10,000 to buyers of new homes. The total cost of each credit is capped at $100 million.
This one is painful in so many ways it is hard to know where to begin. First, the credit is intended to prop up house prices. Why does California want to have an unaffordable housing policy? Let's make homes too expensive for our kids to afford. What a great policy for a state that already has some of the highest priced housing in the country.
What is even more painful is that the credit will not even have this intended effect. The $100 million will be sufficient to finance the purchase of roughly10,000 homes, assuming that most buyers get near the maximum credit. Even in a depressed market, first time buyers would easily account for more than 100,000 home sales a year in California. This means that the credit is unlikely to increase total first-time purchases in California, but it is likely to move some forward to before the money for the credit runs out. (The credit is awarded on a first-come basis.)
So, if there were some special economic benefit from getting people to buy homes before June or July rather than after June or July, then this credit would be a great idea. Unfortunately, it is hard to think of why we would care which month a home was purchased in. That means that we have just given people $10,000 of taxpayers money for nothing -- great idea for a cash starved state -- we'll just lay off some teachers or cut back on child health care spending to make up the cost. The credit for new home purchases could have some small effect on demand (this market is much smaller) although it's not clear that California need more new home construction right now.
But, the really great part of the story is who gets the credit. It is only homebuyers, which means that the poorer segment of the population, who tend to be renters, lose out. That's okay, why shouldn't renters be subsidizing the housing of homebuyers? But, it's also worth noting that the credit is not refundable. It is a credit against state income tax over the next three years. So, those who don't owe $10,000 in state income tax will not be able to get the full benefit of the credit.
So, we have a regressive subsidy that is intended to raise house prices, but will likely not even have that effect. And it will cost the state $200 million. When these folks come to Washington asking for money, the pre-condition should be that the state legislature and governor stop doing drugs.



















Hey. I live in CA. It's proof positive that Democrats can be fiscally irresponsible as Republicans. The Dems pass idiotic spending programs (like this one) and Repubs are the enablers by blocking tax increases.
Sanity? Not a chance.
April 5, 2010 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Breathe.
April 5, 2010 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
When these folks come to Washington asking for money . . . .
And this is about all that "Washington" -- which was first out of the gate with these sorts of programs* -- will be able to say.
* Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008
April 5, 2010 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, California is both buying more services that in can afford, and paying more for those services than it can afford. This is but one sad example.
The state reportedly has over 15,000 retirees pulling down over $100,000 each in pension alone. Raising taxes on the working poor directly or indirectly to pay these well to do folks is a crime.
April 5, 2010 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly, but a deal is a deal and the California legislature passed these deals but failed to pay for them. Rather, they just issue more debt. If they had to pay for it (increase taxes) rather than shove it off to the future it would require some actual thought and they would not be in this pickle. The "more goodies - no new taxes" mentality that has permeated CA and DC for the last 10 years will come to no good end.
April 5, 2010 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
10 years, no; much longer
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2009/01/26-0
April 5, 2010 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey . . .
Everything you never wish to really know about Jude Wanniski...
http://www.polyconomics.com/ssu.html
~OGD~
April 7, 2010 4:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh well . . .
Of course the dumb bunnies in Sacramento are going to attempt to prop-up real estate values. That's where they get there property tax from. The higher the costs of housing, new or old, the more into the kitty...
And what the hell did my fellow California voters think back in 1978 when they were sold the bill-of-goods of Prop-13?
Jarvis and his bunch of apartment/commercial property lobbyists and cronies really knew how to sell that load of crap.
And it since set the stage for the nation-wide tax-revolt bullshit such as the TABOR legislation in Colorado advocated by conservative and free market libertarian groups the the likes of Americans for Prosperity and Americans for Limited Government.
Go back and read Greg Anrig from June 17, 2005:
It continues here
~OGD~
April 7, 2010 4:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
"When these folks come to Washington asking for money, the pre-condition should be that the state legislature and governor stop doing drugs."
No, the precondition should be that the California legislature raises taxes to cover the costs of the programs they have initiated.
.
April 7, 2010 8:04 AM | Reply | Permalink