Show Me the Strategy
According to the Washington Post's Glen Kessler, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made a surprising comment to the BBC this week. She said that the recent US-Israel confrontation was "paying off".
This would imply that the public declarations on both sides of the relationship being at historic lows was more John Bolton-like bluster deployed tactically to try and win some leverage rather than a real break. If someone in outer space was feeling really generous toward the Obama administration, one might even consider the tiff a sign of real strategy.
But not on this planet. What has been completely missing from President Obama's Israel-Palestine efforts is serious, deep engagement in the complex challenges there. He has an envoy, George Mitchell, who seems to be groveling for Israeli and Palestinian support.
We've seen systemic irresponsibility on both the Israel and Palestine sides of the equation for a very long time -- and it amazes me that Dennis Ross and other well-informed advisers to the President aren't making it clear that at this point, only a process that actively involves most of the responsible stakeholders in the region will move past the paralysis. That demands an expression of Presidential expectations of what a final status package might look like -- and would make clear what the US, Arab neighbors, Europe, the UN, and Russia would expect Israel and Palestine to abide by.
There has been no sign that the administration is willing to deal with the region as it is - rather than as it might fantasize about. The failure of negotiations under George Mitchell, the failure to get Israel to agree to Obama's cessation of settlement demands, the recent blow up during Biden's visit -- all of these cannot be blamed on the regular pin-up target for problems in the region -- Hamas.
Hamas has been mostly quiet despite the assassination, allegedly by the Mossad, of one of its military leaders. Hamas was negotiating directly with Netanyahu's government over a prisoner exchange, and Hamas has been a credible participant in unity talk efforts brokered by the Egyptians.
The reality behind the scenes with these negotiations is that Netanyahu doesn't want to achieve Shalit's release and secure a deal with Hamas -- both because it will empower Hamas and put him in an odd spot. The Egyptians are both brokering a unity government peace effort in Palestine with one hand and blocking it with the other.
The Egyptians, the Americans, and Netanyahu are the blocks on dealmaking in the region that might lead to a different equilibrium that could be more productive than the mess we have now.
Has the US even noticed the shift in Hamas' behavior? Are we doing anything to test the reality of this shift or to take advantage of it?
I think not as George Mitchell is still chasing a "too much, too late" strategy to shower so-called Palestinian moderates with his attention, US resources, and his 'hopes.' Mitchell also doesn't get that Israel-Palestine is a globally significant fault-line unlike Northern Ireland which could have raged a few hundred more years without having the same global consequences of an unresolved Israel-Palestine conflict.
Whether the US is going to punish Israel for its ongoing settlement misbehavior or appease it doesn't really matter.
What does matter is whether the Secretary of State expresses a sense of vision and direction for the region that rises above Israel's regrettable behavior and moves beyond the fragmentation and incompetence of the Palestinian government. All eyes and ears will be waiting for some sign that the administration has strategic depth during her speech before the annual AIPAC national policy summit on Monday.
If not, she will be reinforcing the sense much of the world has of Obama's lack of seriousness about America's geostrategic position. She will be reinforcing a global profound sense of doubt about America's ability to achieve the objectives it declares itself committed to.
And as Joe Biden warned appropriately during the campaign, President Obama will continue to be tested and tested and tested -- not just by Netanyahu but many other world players who sense lack of resolve, an absence of strategy and weakness on the US side.
It took Kennedy the Cuban Missile Crisis to finally regain his balance and restore American global credibility.
I wonder what crisis Obama will finally have to confront to restore global confidence in him -- and what risks that will entail.
This article first appeared at the Middle East issues blog, the Palestine Note.
-- Steve Clemons publishes the popular political blog, The Washington Note. Clemons can be followed on Twitter @SCClemons
Here is the oh-so-subtle Steve Clemons to perpetuate the "Obama is a wimpy tyro" theme of the neocons right after his "Obama needs to get rid of his incompetent crowd from Chicago" campaign.
Don't tell me, Steve, you'd rather see Dennis Ross as envoy than the "grovelly" George Mitchell.
Let's not forget, folks, that Steve Clemons signed one of the PNAC letters. This post raises further concern as to whether he has actually detached from his old neocon crowd since he is still pushing their line. No doubt he is doing this to grease his social entree around the AIPAC conference. Tsk. Tsk.
March 20, 2010 7:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your note seems to want to be offensive rather than reasoned - but what the heck. I am not perpetuating an Obama is a wimp line. I want him to succeed. When you aren't venting, check out my comments on Obama's winning the Nobel Peace prize. You might have to eat some of what you just posted. And on my relationship with the neocons, google my name and neocons and you'll get a quite different picture. I did sign two PNAC letters dealing with Hong Kong reversion and an important issue about respect for law in Hong Kong -- with some encouragement from Hong Kong's then Solicitor General. I have been quite clear in my opposition to the neocons since. And if you have doubts, check this week's cover story on Dick and Liz Cheney in the Nation. I have a bunch of comments in it that are contrary to your post here.
So, happy to play with you any time -- but it might be worth your time to study up a bit.
all best, steve clemons
March 20, 2010 7:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah. I'm sorry Steve. I know you do good things. I just get so irritated when people tear down our negotiator. Dennis Ross is after Mitchell's job you know. That says to me that there actually is a strategy and Dennis Ross wants to get in there to muck it up.
But please forgive me for flying off the handle. I won't do it again.
By the way, Bibi caved on the settlements.
March 21, 2010 12:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
It just so happens that Dennis Ross was responsible for negotiating the earlier settlement freeze that sapped the President's power. Steve, you should be saying "Fire Dennis Ross!" instead of going after Mitchell.
March 21, 2010 4:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
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February 12, 2011 12:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
A few more points if I may. You call Mitchell grovelly and trash his understanding of the issues while touting Ross as "well-informed."
Laura Rozen is also touting Ross to replace Mitchell. http://www.politico.com/blogs/laurarozen/0310/All_of_Netanyahus_advisors_.html?showall
Glenn Kessler was implicated meeting with the spies and traitors in the AIPAC spy case.
Obama should revoke the veto that Israel has over our government apppointments. He should start by collecting Ross' scalp to establish the principle.
March 21, 2010 5:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting stuff Mad as Hell. While you have more confidence in Mitchell than I do, I would never recommend replacing Mitchell with Dennis Ross. I saw MJ Rosenberg's note about Bibi caving, which could be great news. Let's see what that really means now though. More soon - all best, steve
March 21, 2010 8:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think not as George Mitchell is still chasing a "too much, too late" strategy to shower so-called Palestinian moderates with his attention, US resources, and his 'hopes.' Mitchell also doesn't get that Israel-Palestine is a globally significant fault-line unlike Northern Ireland which could have raged a few hundred more years without having the same global consequences of an unresolved Israel-Palestine conflict.
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December 13, 2010 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
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January 9, 2011 11:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
my prediction: the US and israel will play a "don't ask, don't tell" wink-wink, nod-nod with superficial displeasure expressed by the US towards israel to maintain the pretense of an honest broker. all the while, isreal will continue to expand it's land grab and ethnic cleansing.
at some point, the palestinian will ask that a state be recognized by the UN, european, and russians along the international consensus of the 1967 borders. the US and israel will first block this move but eventually the US will have to cave as supporting israel as an apartheid state will become untenable. there will also be an ever growing BDS movement.
israel will continue to resist as fantasies of a greater biblical israel are hard to let go of. the problem is that all of the people of consequence in israel have various degrees of the jerusalem syndrome.
at that point, will israel see the light? will the two-state view be recognized has having been DOA? will israel take a defiant "you can't make me", us-against-the world attitude? will israel initiate a regional conflict to implement nabka 2.0?
March 20, 2010 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
FIRST : sorry for the bad English
Lets start diving with FACTS ON THE GROUND (As contrary to your fanatsies & wishes ):
I don't know which numbers you read ?
But by all the predictions by most of the economists around the world : In 2020 Israel will be in the 10 (Today Israel in the 20's league) richest countries in the world , even in the 5 in 2030
-any wars/conflicts/threats didn't stop that in the last 65 years - The Israeli train still gallop .
In the 50's , 60's , 70's when the major Arab embargo against international companies operating in Israel (Even coca cola didn't operate here) exists - The Israeli economy growth was the higher in the world (Always remember the enormous spending on defense in Israel) - you can Google it,
In the last 10 Years Israel is the biggest recipient of Nobel prices compare to the size of the Population
BDS movement ? Lets examine that ?
2009 had the biggest number of tourists in Israel in all times : 60 % of the tourists were Non Jews or Christians pilgrim.
The predictions for the Next years are greater.
The Israeli arm companies win almost everyday contracts worth Millions of $$ in every hole across the globe,
( some anecdotes : All the surveillance systems in Dubai ( Remember Hamas leader meeting right now his 72 years old virgin up stairs) and all the security systems were from an Israeli company (My friend work there some years ago) , some contracts to secure the Saudi , Gulf, Iraq oil fields won by an Israeli companies )
This week The ISRAELI TEVA pharmaceutical company buy 5.5 Billion $ German company - currently TEVA is one of the biggest pharmaceutical company in the world , In north America cities (NY,Las Vegas, Toronto and etc..) Israeli tycoons but Real states like peanuts - same in Europe .
many Headquarters Of the EMEA (The Mediterranean countries -Greece, Cyprus and etc... + Africa + Middle east) are in Israel (Intel ,Google,Motorola , SAP and many more companies -You know what saved Intel from collapsing in the 90's - The Israelis MMX,Pentium Chips developed in Intel Haifa laboratories Without sounding arrogant ) , Israel began this year for the first time to give
loans to Africa/Asia countries through the IMF.
Some examples :
**In the 60 Independence of Israel - The Paris Books fair honored Israel(Very exclusive Club) as the guest of honor Even China with their 1.3 Billion ppl speaking & reading Chinese compare to Less than 13 Millions Hebrew readers - The regular suspects (Islamofascists & Collaborators - Loony left wing nuts ) protested and did the USUAL threats and call for the cancellation BUT you know what happen - This fair had the highest number of visitors
**In Canada last year there was An Israeli wines air . again The Regular dogs bark , Guess what happen the stock was sell one hour before the opening !
** "Code pink " lesbo nuts try to boycott the selling of the Dead sea cosmetics , Guess what ?
Today Almost every lady use this stuff
** I work in An Financial international company , Israel is very small compare to the 140 countries she operate BUT many times we are managing the Projects that involved many countries ,
**Israel has the bigest R&D centers beside the USA ,Lets take for examples Just the Israeli IT (My occupation) companies (Amdocs , Comverse , Checkpoint ,ECI telecoms , GIlAT satellites , Tadrian , Elbit Systems and many more ) become bigger and bigger in the course of time and today they are the world leading in their area
**Most of the high quality Fruits ,Vegetables ,Flowers In Europe are From Israel.
THERE ARE MORE INDICATORS AND I WILL NOT exhausting you with facts & numbers BUT remeber aleays one thing :
Money talk
- And the '*Juice*' are really good at that (Even the anti Semites right some times with their "Jewish bankers Conspiracy" theories )
March 20, 2010 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
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February 8, 2011 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
The issue is a waste of our president's time. He should spend as little time as possible struggling with it.
Netanyahu : like Cheney but a whole lot more intransigent. Would you, Mr Clemons, be able to get Cheney/Netanyahu to compromise ? No you could not. Not on anything.
White phosphorus : made in the USA, sold to our ally, dumped onto civilians, seen by the whole world. No one in the USA knows or gives a rat's behind about this. Why should the Palestinians trust us ?
You propose that the US government thrash around inside the same old constraints that keep anything from changing. The secretary of state and Mitchell should keep flying their planes back and forth between here and there ? So what ? All the players over there hold our government in the deepest contempt.
Americans are bored of this squalid fight going nowhere.
Here is a fresh idea : build a wall around the whole mess, let no money or support get in to anyone on either side, and make them sort it out.
March 20, 2010 8:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here is a fresh idea : build a wall around the whole mess, let no money or support get in to anyone on either side, and make them sort it out.
At least some one here has a brain,
Very good Idea , I support that !
March 20, 2010 9:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hi Steve. Agree on Ross. He is as credible as a mediator as Mrs. Netanyahu. He has never been an honest broker. He has never understood that Israel's interests and US interests diverge. The whole dumb Biden statement about "there must be no light between US and Israeli positions" is pure Ross and pure AIPAC.
Someone wrote that Ross takes orders from AIPAC. No way. Not from Israel either. He doesn't have to. His orders come from the heart which internalized the Israeli line decades ago.
When he retired from government a few years ago, he became head of a big Zionist organization. Nothing wrong with that. But a mediator! Honest broker! Insane. He is the Democrats' Elliot Abrams. Each gets his order from his boss in the Oval then tells Jerusalem how to finesse the President. Yuk.
March 21, 2010 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
The post of Mr. Clemons is persuasive but stops short of addressing some core difficulties.
Eight years of Bush Junior being the Israeli government's lap dog drove the credibility of the US government's objectivity in the region to an all-time low. Obama had a year's "honeymoon" of benefit of the doubt that something might have changed. Now that year has passed without any substantive change. After nine years then of no progress, Obama has to show the world he can accomplish something. This looks unlikely to me, given the current Israeli regime, unless he unrelentingly insists that BOTH that regime and Abbas/Fatah stand up firm against their extremists. Since Netanyahu, and his tool AIPAC, are in bed with the Israeli extremists, that would have to include Obama unwaveringly confronting AIPAC which would be very unlikely, even if Obama were an unrelenting type. Ergo, some others have to confront AIPAC instead, and at the head of those others have to be leading exponents of the religious group in America which AIPAC claims to represent. This has been happening for some time already, but at the level of wrist slaps whereas hammer blows are needed, and from the mid-range and fringes not the top levels.
March 21, 2010 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Steve:
This is an absolutely excellent analysis of where things are I think, and very much appreciated. Let me add that I listened to Secretary Clinton's speech today before I went to work because I was so curious about what she would say and how she would be recevied.
I must say it was a truly impressive performance on her part, for which she was well-received, and notwithstanding her insistence that, inter alia, the United States would continue to publicly criticize Israel when appropriate, and that the continued growth of settlements waa an impediment to peace.
That she was well received I believe is grounded in something that Dan Fleshler has written about, and that is that the Executive Branch, so much more so than the Congress, can move Israel and its more "right or wrong" supporters when there is a relationship of underying and implicit trust. Here's a link about Dan's book, "Transforming America's Israel Lobby" (which includes a forward by MJ Rosenberg) and let me note for the record that Dan has offered to host a discussion about his book at the Cafe which I think would just be terrific:
http://www.realisticdove.org/buy-the-book/
I think most supporters of Israel, even the hard-core "right or wrong" types that you probably find at an AIPAC conference, genuinely believe that Hillary Clinton is really and firmly committed to Israel's security. And that gives her standing on behalf of the Administration to say things that need to be said at a venue like an AIPAC conference and for the most part have not been said in the past.
As to your question about where we go from here, I think it's fair to say that the Administration does not have a strategy that is easy to discern. But I'm not sure laying out a bold proposal--at least publicly--works at this point. I'm not opposed to it; I just think that at this point getting the parties to the table based, among other things, on the expectation that the international community, including the United States, is expecting good faith negotiations to ensue is a sufficient and productive short-term objective.
Finally, I don't know what Netanyahu is going to say before AIPAC, and really more importantly what he will say when he meets with President Obama tomorrow. But I am looking forward to signs that things have moved and will continue to move in a positive direction, and so maybe we genuinely can conclude that the pressure placed on Israel over the past couple of weeks has provided a tangible dividend.
Thanks again for your contribution.
Bruce S Levine
New York, New York
March 22, 2010 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Only someone have the strong willing to leave something in the history of the Middle East can really solve the question of Israel and the Palestinians. What we can do, just watch, keep on watching. David, driving games club.
April 26, 2010 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I dont think we can do anything about Israel.. I cant wait what will happen in the next 5 years!
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September 15, 2010 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess everybody has a different definition of what is "paying off"! I am sure that European must have a different definition...
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November 2, 2010 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Only someone have the strong willing to leave something in the history of the Middle East can really solve the question of Israel and the Palestinians. What we can do, just watch, keep on watching.
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November 2, 2010 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Glad to see Hamas mentioned.
My opinion is that Isr and the US went even harder as a 'terrier' group after Hamas when they actually won their election because they know Hamas would be a much tougher negotiator for Palestine land and rights than Abbas ever would be.
Hamas is the true 'loyalist' group for Palestine.
More dedicated and less corrupted by US ties and I am sure with a clear end game picture of what a final settlement with Israel would look like. They also know Palestine isn't going to get a fair deal from the US and Israel alone, they have to go to and bring in others to gain support for their visions of the deal.
I am also disappointed in Mitchell. Said before Jim Baker was the man to send to Israel and the ME.
And I agree with Steve about lack of stragety. The only possible stragety my devious mind can conceive is that Obama is using events to toss half this hot potatoe to the international community so they will get louder and even more involved so he can say the US is moving in accordance with the world majority opinions.
And maybe deflect some of the domestic political heat Obama, his adm and party is getting and will get toward any kind of settlement and for a settlement itself if there is one, from jewish donors and lobby groups in the next elections.
Although really, if he looked at Americans opinions he would know that putting an end to I/P and the Israeli problem would be a positive for him now voter wise.
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November 16, 2010 9:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
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I just finished a term paper about the political upheaval surrounding the entire campaign and I still don't now which side is telling the truth. The Administration does not have a clear idea of what they want to accomplish and because of this, the entire ordeal with Israel has been a mess.
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What has been completely missing from President Obama's Israel-Palestine efforts is serious, deep engagement in the complex challenges there. He has an envoy, George Mitchell, who seems to be groveling for Israeli and Palestinian support. occupational safety degrees
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Ross has never been an honest broker and never understood that Israel's interests and US interests diverge. The whole dumb Biden statement about "there must be no light between US and Israeli positions" is pure Ross and pure AIPAC.
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Interesting stuff Mad as Hell. While you have more confidence in Mitchell than I do, I would never recommend replacing Mitchell with Dennis Ross. I saw MJ Rosenberg's note about Bibi caving, which could be great news. Let's see what that really means now though. More soon - all best, steve Thailand Hotels
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April 19, 2011 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
US interests diverge. The whole dumb Biden statement about "there must be no light between US and Israeli positions" is pure Ross and pure AIPAC. ran แรน
April 22, 2011 6:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
I really liked the post and great tips..even I also think that hard work is the most important aspect of getting success keep it up :)
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April 27, 2011 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
unless US is going to punish Israel for its ongoing settlement misbehavior, nothing going to change in ME region.
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May 5, 2011 3:19 AM | Reply | Permalink