Jobs and Change, Communications and Energy
Jobs are the chief concerns of most Americans right now. Those with them are scared they might lose them. Those without them want to find one. What we need to do is clear: pass laws that open new industries to job opportunities for millions of Americans - and in a hurry. Predictions that we will not return to full employment for five or more years should drive us to act as we did in the early 1990s, when we faced a similar, although far less, serious economic slump.
When Congress enacted the spectrum auction authority in 1993 and the market-opening Telecommunications Act of 1996, we intended to create new opportunities for high-paid work in the communications industry. As a legislator and a regulator, we partnered to create policies that did that, and we would freely admit that what happened exceeded our wildest dreams.
In the ten years that followed the spectrum auctions that created competition in digital cellular and the regulatory framework that opened Internet access to competition and the telephone network to innovation - 1997 to 2007 - investors, according to McKinsey and Company, poured more than $850 billion in new capital into mobile, data, and expanded cable networks in the United States.
This investment drove job creation beyond any economist's prediction. Unemployment fell to 4 percent by the end of 1990s, and nearly 65 percent of the population was employed. That's a remarkable contrast to the numbers today: 9.7 percent of Americans are unemployed and only 58 percent of people are employed. The job growth led to national income growth and increased tax revenue, so that the federal budget, contrary to every estimate at the beginning of the 90s, was balanced by 1998.
We can get the same upside surprises if we pass a law that retools the carbon-based energy sector of the last century and encourages private investment in a 21st century energy economy built on alternatives such as wind, sun, biomass and geothermal. That's the purpose of the Waxman-Markey bill, which passed the House of Representatives last June.
Reform in communications stimulated creative destruction. For example, the old long distance industry charged ten cents a minute for a call when we passed the Telecommunications Act. Now people are not even aware that there used to be a long distance charge when they use their phones to call anywhere.
The replacement of the old networks with the new led to waves of innovation. Our reforms permitted everyone to unplug the phone line from the back of the telephone and stick it into the back of the computer. That connection was the first pathway to the World Wide Web - in large part because we did not permit the telephone company to charge extra money for all that extra and unpredicted use. The new demand for data connections drove telephone companies to buy routers and switches, to build data centers, and to upgrade lines. Cable companies were driven to respond by switching some of their capacity from one-way video programs to high speed two-way internet access, giving rise to broadband. In response, the phone companies are now installing fiber, taking broadband to new levels of speed and lower price per bit.
Similarly, in the energy sector we need to retool the existing generation and distribution networks with cleaner forms of generation, open markets to innovators who will build power lines that lose fewer electrons and connect new sources of clean power to users, and reward investors for installing more efficient ways of using electricity. Creating the right framework for our communications networks led investors to commit about $850 billion to rebuild those networks. With the right set of policies, it is reasonable expect a similar explosion of private sector investment in the energy sector. This will result in consumers paying less for heating, cooling and lighting, and America's energy sector will be firmly based on abundant, cheap and clean fuels. Nothing will pull innovation into the energy sector more than wind farms demanding better storage technology, solar farms demanding better ways of capturing and converting sunlight into electricity, and appliances and electric vehicles that can talk to the grid if it is smart enough.
There are other areas of the economy where Americans can and should find new jobs. In the energy sector we not only will need millions of employees, but we also know that those millions will help us achieve independence from foreign oil and an end to the pollution of the environment from carbon emissions. The trifecta of huge employment, national security, and protection of the environment is a winning ticket for America. We have found that winning formula before in hard times that proved to be the dawn of economic growth; we can turn the dark days of the present into sunny optimism about our future once again.
Rep. Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) is the chairman of the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming.
Reed Hundt was chairman of the Federal Communications Commission from 1993-1997.
Legislation designed to stimulate investment is great, but what purpose does it serve if it stimulates manufacturing in China? If you want to create jobs, then we need legislation that will return these manufacturing jobs to the US so that we can provide both the knowledge and the hardware for the next generation power systems, whatever they might be.
March 9, 2010 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, Reed and Ed, a couple of questions:
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March 24, 2011 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good luck getting that through the Senate and past the Tea Bagger crowd's aggressive obstruction.
March 9, 2010 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Another great idea that will be completely ignored by Barack Obama and his adherence to Reagnism -- "Only Markets create jobs, wealth" (paraphrased... Maybe from the recent Financial Times fiasco interview...). He could employ 2 Million people asap tearing down our dead cities (ie, Detroit), but nooooooo... That would be to smart and efficient and productive.
March 9, 2010 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is one of almost 300 bills sitting in the Senate with no discernible movement. I'm not sure who you think your audience is, but it should be the 100 people on the other side of Capitol Hill. You should be talking to them and putting them on the spot. We are the choir.
March 9, 2010 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
The expansion of debt and speculation that characterized the US economy (and advanced capitalism as a whole) since the 1960's represented the main means by which the system waa able to avoid sinking into a deep slump while not enabling it to overcome the stagnation of the 'real' economy.
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August 16, 2010 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
An old American truism had it that "as goes GM, so goes the nation." Now it would seem that as goes Goldman-Sachs, so goes the nation.
The former made something while the latter makes nothing. A supporting truth of successful capitalism? We create wealth by making things.
The expansion of debt and speculation that characterized the US economy (and advanced capitalism as a whole) since the 1960's represented the main means by which the system waa able to avoid sinking into a deep slump while not enabling it to overcome the stagnation of the 'real' economy.
Stagnation to dormancy to death pretty well describes the trajectory the American economy has been on.
March 9, 2010 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Umm...wasn't there a telecom bubble? Where like, LOTS of people lost their shirt, and tremendous overcapacity (in some markets) were created?
There was a sobering article in the NYT today about Spain's experience with hothousing green technology. I'd like to see that compared with this.
March 9, 2010 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
There was indeed a telecom bubble.
But before that, there was also a real foundation of telecomunications infrastructure laid that put the US in the lead for telecomunications technology and the various enabled business models.
Unfortunatley, that was followed by the bubble and the ensuing economic policies designed explicity to "keep the wealthy wealthy" aka "supply side economics" aka "cut capital gains taxes". That policy perverted us into a nation of speculators and tools. In case you haven't figured it out, we are the tools and Goldman/AIG are the speculators.
I, personally would welcome a return to designing and building products and technologies that people want and need, as opposed to financial products that amount to nothing more than an excuse to give bonuses to management.
March 9, 2010 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
"What we need to do is clear: pass laws that open new industries"
- And there, quietly, go all the existing industries that could create jobs. That's probably because Obama already saved and created every last one in the existing industries.
And there's nothing wrong with taking credit for all the economic boom of the 1990s.
March 9, 2010 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
All of which would make sense if this were the country it is purported to be. However, the oil companies and their allies and other corporations who benefit from the status quo will throw up lies, buy themselves just enough politicians to gum up the works the corporate media will hum along and the teabaggers will wail about socialism.
March 9, 2010 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
The most effective way to spur growth in the green energy area is really quite simple and rather inexpensive, at that: low cost loans and/or loan guarantees to finance the cost of construction. There already exists lots of technological solutions to these problems, but implementation is hampered by the need to raise capital. Also, no one wants to spend money developing new technologies if they're uneconomic due the cost of capital investment. Providing that capital at low cost would create a boom in green energy construction that would rival that of the telecommunications boom.
March 9, 2010 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Any of you wise people driven I70 through Kansas. Wind power is here and it is here with a vengence. The other day there was a fight between wind power proponents and bird lovers in Montana. The bird lovers lost. What the government can do that can't be done privately is up grade the transmission lines from the Midwest and West to the population centers in the East. Of course that infrastructure change will create lots of jobs.
March 9, 2010 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course, we must do this. But it will not be like the telecom boom/bubble, exactly.
Cheap energy drove that bubble as it has driven our industrial society for 300 years. Now we stand on Hubbert's peak, and the view of the other side doesn't look so good.
Yes, we must now put as much energy (in every sense) as possible into energy. But it will not result in cheaper energy in the long run. Make no mistake -- there is no form of energy as cheap as fossil fuels. Not by a long shot.
Oil gives 50x to 200x the return on energy invested -- you burn one barrel of oil, you can get 50 to 200 barrels out of the ground. Wind can give about 7x. Solar (photovoltaic) is about 1x.
I'm all for what you advocate in this post, Reed and Ed. Let's do it, as best we can. But we should have no illusions about our future. It's too late to make a smooth transition to a sustainable industrial economy. To do that, we would have had to start in the '70s. (But, thanks to Reagan and the neocons, we pissed away that opportunity.)
-- ARG
March 9, 2010 11:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gearing up for the new “Energy Economy” should be priority one for the US. With a strong national push we could solve three major problems: 1) millions of people in long-term unemployment, 2) trillions in oil money to petrodictators and terrorists, 3) severe environmental degradation (mainly due to “cheap” energy from coal and oil.)
The timing could not be better. Here’s why. We need to put people to work now. The societal and personal costs of long-term unemployment are simply terrible. We also have factories and other productive assets that lay idle. As a nation we are burdened by the debts incurred to build these productive assets. We need them generating revenue to offset our overhead. Another issue is that investment returns are too low because there are more people wanting to save and invest than there are good investment opportunities to pursue. Start a massive new clean energy industry and there will be a strong need for lots of private capital. That will increase the returns to investing which will help people to compound enough of a nest egg for a secure retirement. The Energy Economy is here and we’ve already let ourselves fall behind China, Germany and others. Given the size of our economy and the natural resources at our disposal we could be the dominant force in this massive new industry if we have the will to lead.
The conventional wisdom though is that as a nation we are broke and can’t afford to spend any extra money. The idea that we are in a perilous fiscal position is certainly true. Unfortunately, the call for us all to hunker down and spend less money (especially government) is all wrong. Any money you and I or even the government saves is money that someone else loses. It is known as the paradox of thrift. If we all save, we all lose. Saving (i.e. fewer and smaller transactions) leads to smaller earnings and fewer jobs. As a result, the economy as a whole shrinks and so do tax revenues. Most of our current federal deficit comes from lost tax revenue and increased spending on the safety net (unemployment, etc.) that are largely a result of the recession. One of the worst things we could do for our fiscal position is to allow our economy to remain stagnant. The economy and employment would still be shrinking right now if not for federal deficit spending (i.e. the Stimulus). It is starting to wind down though and we are in real danger of a double dip recession as this critical support is removed.
Fortunately for us, our federal government can borrow money at extremely low interest rates. Right now, we are using these borrowed funds to prop up a sick economy and pay tremendous national security costs to try and offset the risks we create by sending trillions of dollars to irresponsible oil exporters in troubled areas around the world. Instead we could be investing in the generation and transmission of clean energy right here at home. And sadly, no Virginia, there is no such thing as “clean” coal. Burning coal frees up massive amounts of CO2 in comparison to the energy released. The only way this could be clean is if the CO2 could be safely and permanently sequestered. This is very hard and expensive to do as the physics of bottling up large amounts of pressurized gas presents many difficulties and would almost surely lead to a number of unintended consequences. How much pressurized CO2 do you want stored in the ground beneath your home or in or near the water table you rely on for drinking water?
So, what should our government be doing? For starters, we should stop subsidizing and giving preferential treatment to the oil, gas and coal companies. Let’s try and even the playing field. Next, let’s make energy markets more efficient. These markets are distorted by large negative externalities (pollution) that impose huge costs on society. Right now, energy producers (and users) basically ignore the costs imposed by pollution because those costs are spread out all over the world from our asthmatic children to the innumerable species threatened with extinction. Something needs to be done to fix the huge distortions in energy markets so that individual actors (producers and consumers) can make the best decisions based on all relevant costs and benefits. Cap and trade has been proven to work right here in the US (remember “acid rain” due to sulfur emissions?) If you believe like I do that efficient markets are really the best way to make production and consumption decisions than it follows that it is the role of our government to ensure markets are efficient.
I have no problem with large corporations (banks and oil companies come to mind) making lots of money on the backs of large national assets (infrastructure, a large educated workforce, contract law, etc.) as long as they do so in efficient markets that take into account most of the relevant costs and benefits affected by their decision making. In inefficient markets, corporations can not help but harm society as they seek to maximize profits. If one company doesn’t take the low road then another will. Banks offer us “cheap” credit and boost profits by piling up risk they don’t really understand. When it turns out they made poor decisions we all pay to cover their losses. It works the same with oil and coal companies. We think we are getting cheap energy. In reality, we just can’t see all of the costs. The corporations get to keep their profits and the rest of us are saddled with the risks incurred by their actions. It is up to us working through government and NGOs to protect ourselves. It is unaccounted for and little understood risk that has led us to global recession and widespread environmental degradation. We were given the Earth to provide for our needs and the needs of those with whom we share it. The planet itself will be fine but we are making lots of short term decisions that reduce the ability of the Earth to provide for our needs. It is perhaps our most valuable asset. We should take steps to protect it. Efficient markets and good government are the best tools we have at our disposal to provide for the common good. It should go without saying but we can not rely on politicians to protect the interests of the many over the few without our active involvement. Narrow special interests have the incentives, focus and cash to sway public policy. If they fight government attempts to ensure efficient markets and win then the rest of us will lose.
March 10, 2010 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
One of the nice things about a lot of green jobs is that they have to be performed close to where the energy is being generated, used or conserved. Works against outsourcing in a structural fashion.
March 10, 2010 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seriously, everyone is indeed struggling. I know a lot of couples who were once rich who are now having a hard time coping up. Guess we all have to man up out of our little girls mindset and face it the best way we can. After all, it has to get better someday, right?
October 11, 2010 7:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
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