Free Trade Trap
I've been arguing for the last four months that we have entered a New Normal era in which the combination of a naive embrace of free trade, aggressive use of automation and a substandard education and retraining system, has left the United States in a position where it can no longer create enough jobs for its citizens. Yesterday, the New York Times ran a long piece on permanent unemployment that started with this chart.
This is the largest number and percentage of long-term unemployment since the Labor Department started keeping the stats in 1948. But this is not a new issue--it has been building for the last three decades.
During periods of American economic expansion in the 1950s, '60s and '70s, the number of private-sector jobs increased about 3.5 percent a year, according to an analysis of Labor Department data by Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, a research firm. During expansions in the 1980s and '90s, jobs grew just 2.4 percent annually. And during the last decade, job growth fell to 0.9 percent annually.
It would be easy to blame Ronald Reagan, who started a war against unions for the loss of wage growth, but for me the real villains are the academic economists that sit at universities and proclaim the principles of free trade as inviolate.
I've been reading Free Trade Doesn't Work
For example, it has been obvious for 35 years now that America's economy needs to be internationally competitive. But many academic economists disparage the very concept of competitiveness, mainly because it has no accepted definition.
For Fletcher, the academic embrace of free trade is essentially applying 19th Century Laissez-Faire economics to global trade, when we have long since abandoned these ideas in our domestic economy. It is in fact a kind of unilateral disarmament against our global rivals who have never embraced free trade. Case in point: Chinese currency manipulation. Depending on who you talk to the Renminbi is 18-30% undervalued, because the Chinese government artificially pegs it to the dollar in order to make Chinese goods cheaper. This new form of Mercantilism, combined with an aggressive industrial espionage system to reverse engineer American and Japanese technology, puts the Chinese at a tremendous advantage.
We of course have aided our commercial rivals by American firms aggressive embrace of outsourcing. When Boeing decided to outsource many of the components of its new 787 Dreamliner to Asia and Europe, it not only surrendered its intellectual property, but ended up surrendering its control over the assembly and had to delay the introduction of the plane by two years. Ultimately they decided to end many of the outsourcing contracts and return to the US.
We are about to enter a new era of green manufacturing: solar, wind, nuclear, geothermal, high speed rail and hybrid cars. We need to build these technologies in America. Fortunately companies like GE are getting on board to return their factories to the U.S., but we also need to protect the start-ups against aggressive Asian and European dumping. As Fletcher points out the notion of the tariff is embedded in Article I, Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution. We should not be afraid to use it. Cynics will say we have no power over the Chinese because they would sell their huge portfolio of Treasury Bills if we ever levied a tariff on their solar panels. This is nonsense. As Bill Gross would tell you, the Chinese can't unload $1 trillion worth of bonds overnight and any large sale would become a self-fulfilling prophecy to the downside. Let's say they try to sell $1 billion of bonds worth $100 each. The next morning the value of their remaining portfolio of $900 billion might be cut by $100 billion as the market reacted.
As I've said for two years, America is entering a new era of lowered consumption and increased savings and investment. It is foolish to think that the 45 year old men in the New York Times article are going to find jobs in high finance or high tech. If we do not begin rebuilding our manufacturing economy we will enter an era of civil strife and conflict that will make the recent Tea Party rebellions look tame.
Nonsense with a capital N. Unemployment is high because the Cheney-Bush admin spent 8 years of their idiotic economic policies wrecking federal finances with tax cuts for the wealthy, deregulating recklessly, promoting creation of "jobs" building crap sprawl houses, the conning of people who couldn't afford such oversized ticky tacks into huge mortgages, and the blowing of gigantic financial bubbles on top of that whole dung heap, which has now collapsed into pure sewage. There is not enough money left even to hire people to clean up the mess, especially with Democrats in Washington cowering before every nitwit Republican's rant against them. Poorer countries can undercut American wages now, but that was also the case a few years ago when U.S. unemployment was much lower.
February 22, 2010 6:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
The chart is glaringly scary. I'd love to see those figures drop by a huge margin. We really should wonder what is happening exactly. So is free trade a bad thing, or is it a good thing? People are trying to make a difference in their lives by a large extent, and perhaps it is our time to see that love tips over to the good side of things very soon. Free trade or not, we should all help each other progress in this difficult time.
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February 22, 2011 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I must continue my rant aqainst the DNC's survey of the top 14 American priorities.
You had no option to rank labor or unions and you had no option to rank trade. These don't appear on the radar screen of today's establishment party.
China was not on the list of concerns. Iran, North Korea, Iraq and Afghanistan were on the list.
We need a party that has some connection with the real world.
February 22, 2010 6:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
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December 16, 2010 3:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think you're right about trade and the need for our government to do its job and to balance our priorities rather than just giving into the mercantilist economy that's emerging.
But anything that's done that raises the price of consumer goods (let's face it things are mostly cheap at Wal-Mart because Wal-Mart has struck evil bargains with suppliers backed by China's dictatorship) needs to be offset by immediate wage increases in America. There can't be a lag. People have suffered too much already. People must have the incomes to fund every increasing living standards, even if wages have to be subsidized.
February 22, 2010 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even though I disagree with a lot of what you say, this is a very, very important article you've written. This is what the nation should be discussing.
We can't - and shouldn't - stop automation.
Stopping free trade may be possible, but most likely would result in depression and war...and in any case would only be a temporary panacea. Those low skill jobs are all going to be replaced with robots, sooner rather than later. Or, if peak oil is a reality, we'll have more immediate problems to worry about that the unemployment and starvation of the unskilled.
The third part of the triad - education - is the most contentious. Face it - most of the unskilled can't ever be educated to the point where they can handle high technology. That's going to force everyone, not just the United States, to rethink the fundamentals of morality, religion, societal organization, economics, everything.
February 22, 2010 6:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
We already have depression and war.
February 22, 2010 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
And robots!
February 22, 2010 7:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't see "academic eggheads" blaming the victims. (We do have to give out grades however).
We are down here in the educational trenches doing the heavy lifting.
I would say that the situation is a mixed bag. The young people just entering the work force come in all shades and capacities. The older students who often are people who lost their jobs and need re-education are more motivated and serious about learning given that they have the advantage of having first-hand knowledge of becoming obsolete.
February 22, 2010 8:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
You had no option to rank labor or unions and you had no option to rank trade. These don't appear on the radar screen of today's establishment party. download grown ups | download knight and day
June 23, 2010 7:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's going to force everyone, not just the United States, to rethink the fundamentals of morality, religion, societal organization, economics, everything.
In what ways, Spider? You cop out and go cryptic at the end.
February 22, 2010 10:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
If half the population has no economic function how should we look at them, how should we deal with them? That's said from the point of view of the winners, the half of the population that remains useful. From the other side, how do the losers look at the winners? How are they going to feel about the enormous disparity in prestige and wealth which is sure to result?
Government is not going to be able to fix this. I can't see what will. We're dealing with the most basic psychology of living things.
February 23, 2010 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
An ambitious program. Perhaps somebody could start by forcing J. Tapling & Associates to come out for Protection fair and square [1] without any song-and-dance sophistry about True Freedom of Trade?
As long as frankness on the subject instantly casts one into outer darkness and unrespectability next to Neocomrade P. J. Buchanan &c., fundamental progress is not likely.
Healthy days.
__
[1] A "naive embrace" I suppose our publicist would call it.
February 23, 2010 1:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
You leave one gleam of light shining in this grim appraisal, and that is that things CAN change. Can we? Won't it be easier to blame America's decline on "poor workmanship" and greedy American workers. These academic eggheads are quite accustomed to blaming the victim. It's so easy.
February 22, 2010 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't see "academic eggheads" blaming the victims. (We do have to give out grades however).
We are down here in the educational trenches doing the heavy lifting.
I would say that the situation is a mixed bag. The young people just entering the work force come in all shades and capacities. The older students who often are people who lost their jobs and need re-education are more motivated and serious about learning given that they have the advantage of having first-hand knowledge of becoming obsolete
February 22, 2010 8:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I assume the Bell curve still applies to the distribution of most human abilities. So its easy to see that the more intellectually demanding jobs become the fewer people are capable of doing them.
February 22, 2010 8:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
“Free trade” works great for multinational corporations when the pit country against country, state against state, county against county in the competition to site their factories and distribution centers. Competition forces governments to use taxpayer funds to pay for the corporation’s costs of doing business: infrastructure, utilities, training workers. All of those costs and more are offloaded from the private sector to the public sector when government entities compete against each other instead of cooperate to regulate commerce.
Markets in most commodities do work to create efficiencies and provide incentives for innovations but when multinational corporations collude to flip the market for factory siting then the global race to the bottom of the labor market is on. Until there is international agreement on labor and environmental standards that market will continue to impoverish both workers and governments.
February 22, 2010 7:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
In general we are all victims of our circumstances. San Fernando Curt seems to be a victim of terminal cynicism but he does manage to shake things up around here; wakes us up from our dogmatic slumbers. I would be surprised however if ALL his gloomy musings were to totally correspond with reality.
February 22, 2010 9:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, hopefully, Washington will finally get the idea that a country needs a national economic strategy, with well-funded and targeted long-term national investments, and can't leave it all to the whims of individual enterprise and radically decentralized decision-making. We need a plan.
So then, let's think: What are our natural advantages? What are our greatest strengths? What can we build on?
And how do we build and sustain intellectual capital? Perhaps we need a new 21st homestead act. Perhaps we should be paying the world's brightest and most creative people to come here, become Americans, start businesses and employ American citizens.
February 22, 2010 11:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
We don't have any real understanding of the causes of our problems, and even less agreement on their solutions. Economic theory is virtually useless, completely overwhelmed by the unexpected and unexpectedly severe depression...but you think getting a bunch of liberal eggheads to force a populist, half-ass, government plan on the population is going to make things better?
February 23, 2010 10:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let me be the one with the courage to say it: we need to shift more towards Socialism. Capitalism has failed here, as it has in most of the rest of the world. If the wealth of our country was distributed more evenly - not evenly, just more evenly - we would not have the problem of joblessness and a vanishing middle class. When corporations are required to keep their employee salaries withing a range of 5 to 1, with the officers earning no more than 5 times what the lowest paid clerk gets, our problems become manageable. When the super skilled are limited to earning 5 times what the unskilled earn our problems become manageable. But when a CEO and a NBA player can earn $20,000,000 a year, while the lowest paid clerk/laborer earns $20,000 a year, there is no hope for us.
February 22, 2010 11:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are right. Corporations are being run with an eye to increasing compensation for top executives and little else. Show good numbers on the quarterly report and get big bonuses. Take big stock options and then goose the numbers then unload the stock. And when reality hits bail out the window with a huge golden parachute leaving stokholders holding a bag of s**t. Isn't capitalism wonderful?
But whether it's capitalism or socialism it's gotta be manufacturing. A service oriented economy is no economy (remember that was Ronnie Reagan's dream). If you ain't making stuff you ain't making wealth. Tarrifs? Hell yes! Targeted tax incentives. Absolutly.
America needs a trade policy that promotes bringing back manufacturing jobs. America needs a trade policy period.
February 23, 2010 5:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
You want socialism because you think it means taking money from those richer than you while leaving you untouched or better off.
But suppose you had to sacrifice? Suppose you were forced to live on $10,000 a year and in one room (or under a bed) while everything you owned beyond that were given to those who had less.
How would you like that? What rationalizations would you come up with to show that that wasn't proper at all? That you were a "victim" and shouldn't be asked to sacrifice anything.
February 23, 2010 11:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, you have no rational argument here. Unemployment compensation is almost $20,000 a year, or was the last time I checked. And, this is not a 3rd world country yet, even though it is getting close to being one, so it is irrelevant what $20,000 a year would mean in Haiti, for example. In this country $20,000 a year is poverty wages.
It is not in the best interest of our nation to have the huge disparity in incomes we now have. So, whatever it takes to rectify that is the action that must be taken. Or, do you feel that the "needs" of the wealthy take precedence over the needs of the nation as a whole?
February 24, 2010 12:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
In other words, you won't even consider sacrificing anything.
February 24, 2010 12:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
You proposed an utterly asinine situation and asked what I would do. I did what I would do - I ignored your asinine proposition.
If you want to discuss reality I will do so.
February 24, 2010 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
You can't face reality. If you were ever capable of having an idea you lost that ability in the Eisenhower era.
Progressive taxation - never very effective - belongs to a different time, a time when the U.S. had half the world's wealth and was the manufacturing engine which was rebuilding a war-torn world. Have you looked at, for example, General Motors recently? They're enormously profitable in China but virtually bankrupt here. How are you going to tax those overseas profits at confiscatory rates? Can't be done.
Today a world-wide glut of manufacturing capability and technology has forced manufacturers to produce where costs are lowest. You claim that third world wages and standards of living are irrelevant. You couldn't be more wrong. As long as the standard of living of the average Chinese worker is significantly lower than that of a middle class American that American standard is unsustainable. No realistic amount of redistribution will change that - which is why I asked you how much you were willing to sacrifice. The days of liberal generosity with other peoples' money are over. O-V-E-R! Try to think, will you.
Taplin is wrong about tariffs. And bluebell and Destor are not clever about robots, depression and war. They're stupid. The robotic age is just beginning. More and more jobs will be lost as their use increases...and it will increase because cost per unit will decrease as technology improves while labor costs will remain bounded by basic human needs. War has many causes, as does depression. What we're experiencing now will look like heaven if we engage in a tariff driven trade war. That was proven in the '30s. No need to prove it again.
Finally, there are the new problems of over-population and environmental degredation. Long predicted, they may finally be upon us. The consensus is that, without major technological advances in the next few years, the world can sustainably support no more than 2 or 3 billions. How do you think that will play out?
February 24, 2010 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Everybody is wrong and stupid except you. I think head doctors have a new name for that condition, but I'm obviously too stupid to know what that is.
February 24, 2010 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obviously.
February 24, 2010 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is ad hominem and stupid.
One may not advocate that those above you sacrifice without first being willing to sacrifice yourself.
Yet, those who make their fortunes shipping all productive labor opportunities out of the country must not be asked to sacrifice a thing.
In other words, the current distribution of wealth cannot legitimately be challenged.
Some contribution.
Oh, and by the way, one possibility you left out - advocating that those above me sacrifice and distribute those sacrifices to those below me.
February 24, 2010 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was making a point - liberals are awfully generous with other peoples' money. When they are asked to sacrifice they're not home.
My other points also seem to be lost on you - globalization has unified the world to the point where those doing similar jobs must be paid the same wages and enjoy the same standards of living WORLDWIDE, and, at present, international corporations are in many unchangeable ways free from populist pressures, and the unskilled and poorly skilled in America are fucked for the foreseeable future, PERIOD.
February 24, 2010 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Come on, Jon, lets get real.
The "free trade" laws were passed to enable US corporations to get their wares manufactured cheaper outside the country and import them duty free for final assembly (if required) and sales.
And guess what -- it worked just like the corporate-loving congress knew it would. There have been no changes to this basic model, and apparently there will be no changes, except for the situation to worsen as now almost all services can be performed cheaper outside the US.
Doesn't matter if it's green or brown -- same deal. Free trade trap -- come on.
February 23, 2010 10:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Econ 101 and Basic Morality 101:
If you want to help the lower income segments in a society (because those who can do so ought to help those in need) and if foreign trade raises average income in that society (see "comparative advantage"), then blocking foreign trade allows LESS assistance than would be possible WITH trade.
February 23, 2010 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remember the old joke: When a homeless man, living by begging in the street sits at the bar, and Warren Buffet walks in the bar and sits down, the average income of the patrons is $millions a year. Raising the average income is no answer by itself. The answer is bringing the incomes of the lower income people closer to the incomes of the high income people. My suggestion was that no one should be allowed to make more than 5 times what the lower income people make. If the low income folks make $20,000 a year, the high income people should make no more than $100,000. This used to be done by having progressive tax rates, with a very high maximum tax rate, and by corporations having some social responsibility. Neither is the case today.
February 24, 2010 12:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
"free trade" is an oxymoron.
The only true wealth for a nation is obtained from production. And most of our production has now been outsourced...ensuring our demise as a powerful nation with liberty & justice & a job for all ...unless regulation and FAIR trade is reinstituted.
In the 80's, in the name of small gov't, we began to deregulate industries allowing them to develop immense power monopolies. The gov. never did get smaller however (in fact it tripled the deficit under Reagan), But the trans-national corporate powers grew and bought off more of our legislators. A vicious cycle of disabling our government began...leading to the spectacle we see today where the about half of our legislators no longer serves the people...but do the bidding of their campaign donors...trans national corporations and monopolies of immense global power.
99% of the Senate Republicans are now nothing more than puppets of their owners. There is also a growing number of Democrats in that same subset. These are the enablers who are killing America in the pursuit of trans national corporate profit.
Unregulated captitalism kills democracy. Regulated capitalism aids democracy.
February 24, 2010 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Free Trade creates wealth, that's indisputable. Faster and greater than non-free trade. The issue is that the governments did not regulate and redistribute the companies and wealth gained so it screwed up. Yes, like ALL markets, pure free trade eventually reaches efficiency at the expense of people.
February 24, 2010 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Working class / middle class wage stagnation coupled with job losses and rising costs is a recipe for failure and failure is what it's delivering.
You can't have a robust or a growing economy when you keep taking money away from the majority of the population. For those unable to figure this out...well there is no hope for them. The scheme that has evolved over the years has no chance whatsoever of working. No matter how inexpensively you can produce goods, if you destroy your target maketplace in the process, you will end up operating at a loss.
March 1, 2010 7:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
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This discourse is always be an eternal debate: free trade or socialism? Your article may reflect that socialism which is represented by China nowadays is crushing American economy slowly but surely. However, that is not going to be my main point of view regarding to this post.
As we may understand, American economy was heavily relied on the financial sector which drove the national economy in "collapse". I think I'm with you when it you argued that manufacturing sector must be strengthened to cope with keen competition with China and Europe.
China is "cheating" the world with its undervalued currency. Many countries suffered from this policy since their competitiveness is getting lower and lower day by day. The next question is: can America face China? Free trade should also obey rule that is fair to every player. And China is unfair in this case. Indonesian Teak Furniture
December 12, 2010 7:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that in general free trade is a big trap. But we need it and we cant avoid it. Many countries cant avoid it. Because it is one of the engines of progress.
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