I was thinking the only way for this to happen is for the DNC to run an ad featuring Obama and taking the tack that his first two years in office have been a consistent effort to find common cause with responsible GOP leadership. Their public proclamations that they want him to fail should be front and center of a national Dem campaign to buoy up local candidates. Without a bright line being drawn between GOP obstructionism and DC stagnation, all local voters will either stay home or unhappily vote for Republican incumbents or challengers.

Chances of actually happening? Nil.

Well, Gettysburg, it does appear that the Senate bill contains a number of the GOP's pet ideas: some tort reform, cross-state competition, and the other one that keeps escaping me.

OK, the narrative is set, but we will need some substantive successes to keep selling it.

I've always wondered: Poll numbers reveal opinions, supposedly true, but then in turn do those same numbers influence further opinions? The band-wagon phenomenon needs to be taken into consideration when reading polls.

Obama is not running this year.

We lost two governorships, a senate seat and in my humble NY state assembly district, we lost a dem seat in a special election this week to a less experienced and less well funded republican with a mediocre record.

It is not looking good.

And by way of example, I would never, BUT NEVER, vote for Schumer. I may not vote for his adversary, but I would never pull the lever for a corporate whore the likes of Chuckie, who bravely stepped in a few years back to make sure his hedge fund buddies only got their income taxed at the capital gains rate, rather then the rate all us other non-master of the universe have to pay.

He is a disgusting phony.

So let me tell you, I won't make predictions, but just because Obama polls a little higher than a generic republican on some issues is awfully thin gruel to hang your hat on (sorry for the mixed metaphors).

Dangerous conclusion, I think. I agree with ABrod that Obama is not running this year.

And I believe it will be a terrible outcome for any incumbent who is older, long-serving, and not able to make a convincing presentation for changing the way things are done. I think this explains the Republican retirements as well as the few surprising Democrat retirements. I also think it explains the Democrats who meet the criteria and somehow believe, as you do, that being on Obama's side will be enough. It will not be enough.

Ads won't be enough. The fall candidates will have to display their own energy instead of just ad energy (the two governships that went to the Republicans), to show their own ability to move past the established "family" approvals or conventional party strategies and wage their own fight (Massachusetts and the NY special election), and to generate quick and continued support from new and established voters.

This reminds me most of the period starting with JFK's election and ending with Watergate--it was the passing of the torch to the next generation. The boomers of the age of Bush II and Clinton fought the same battles prevalent in the era I just mentioned but were never able to move past those earlier battles. Obama is more like JFK in the era he will represent.

And we'll have a volatile polls, voting behaviors, and conclusions by pundits for at least Obama's two terms--and, yes, he will certainly win in 2012.

I agree with you that the Republican tide will now start to go out, helped along by economic recovery, however modest, and Democratic pushback.

If the unemployment rate goes down substantially - very unlikely - and if something that can credibly be called "health care reform" is passed - very unlikely - and if there are no terrorist attacks on our country - very likely - the Democrats will hold on to Congress. Only one of those is likely to happen, so I doubt that we will see another big Democratic majority in Congress for the next 6 years.

John Taplin advises Barack Obama...

Obama's narrative for 2010 is...

Yada yada yada!

Barack Obama replies to Jon Taplin:

Thanks for the advice, moron, but my actual slogan for 2010 will be...

Vote for Republicans!

'Cuz I'm a very bipartisan guy!

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