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On U.S Middle East Policy and Amateurism

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This was not a good week for the Obama administration's Middle East peace efforts. Speaking alongside Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in Jerusalem last Saturday, Secretary Clinton seemed to be praising the distinctively partial limitations that Israel was willing to implement on settlement non-expansion. During the following days in Morocco and Cairo, she walked those remarks back, but the damage had been done.

By Thursday, the American-sponsored Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas was sufficiently exasperated to announce that he will not be standing for re-election, and all week the media and political commentary on the U.S. approach was scathing about America's efforts--even by Middle East standards.

Speaking to the Washington Post, I described the U.S. approach of the past days as amateurish--a perhaps harsh, but unfortunately apt, label. On the positive side, I think the administration folks are themselves aware that this is not going swimmingly. The overall administration scorecard on Middle East peace is slipping into the red.

But first, let's be fair about that record.

The Obama administration merits significant credit for having acknowledged from the get-go that advancing a solution on Israel-Palestine, or at least reaching a post-occupation equilibrium, is a key American national interest--a realization that was belatedly groped at by the Bush administration and was set forth from day one by its successor. That displays a keen understanding of the centrality of how the Israeli-Palestinian issue impacts America's standing and ability to advance its goals, including the push back against extremism in the region and beyond. National Security adviser General Jones repeated the assertion last week at the J Street conference. Credit, too, for the administration for acting on this. A senior envoy, Senator Mitchell, was appointed on day two, and deployed shuttling back and forth to the region. The President delivered a ground-breaking speech in Cairo, the Arab world was deeply engaged (unlike the past), and a marker was set down on settlements. It was on this latter issue of settlements, however, where things began to unravel.

The Obama team's call for a comprehensive settlement freeze was consistent with past U.S. policy (notably Bush's Roadmap of 2003), although it was perhaps treated with more seriousness coming from the new 'hope and change' President. The Israel Prime Minister's answer came in June, and it was a rejectionist one: no full freeze, and no limitations whatsoever on settlements in East Jerusalem. That is when the malaise set in.

The administration had three possible options in responding:

1) Stick to its guns and calibrate a set of escalating consequences in response to possible ongoing Israeli recalcitrance.

2) Make a smart pivot by declaring, for instance, that if Israel could not for its own reasons freeze settlements, then this would make all the more urgent the need to quickly define and agree a border for an Israel-Palestine two-state solution. And the U.S. could reasonably have adopted a formula regarding that border (such as based on the 1967 lines, minor mutual modifications to accommodate settlements close to the Green Line in a one-to-one land swap). The U.S. could have explained to its Israeli friends that absent a defined border, the settlement freeze would have to be comprehensive, but in the discussion on borders, there could be more flexibility given the one-to-one land swaps.

3) Dig themselves into a hole. Insisting on a freeze, heightening expectations, without a plan for achieving that end, and by then acceding to talks with the Israeli government over koshering aspects of settlements expansion.

It is certainly legitimate for the administration to have not chosen option one, and to have decided that this was the wrong issue and/or wrong timing to escalate with the Netanyahu government. My own preference would have been for option two, and indeed, the administration could reasonably be perceived to have laid the ground deftly for such a pivot. Unfortunately, they went for option three, and it all came crashing down around their feet this week.

The Secretary's last minute stop in Cairo to round off the trip said it all. The Mubarak regime tried to help salvage some American pride, lining up behind the Secretary's efforts. Except that it is precisely the Mubarak government whose credibility is so severely questioned in the region, it is the largest Arab recipient of American financial assistance, and is obsessed with leadership succession--in short, getting a smile out of the Egyptian leader doesn't even register on the congratulatory charts.

There is nonetheless potentially good news in all of this. Those who are writing off the administration's peace efforts, friend and foe alike, are being premature in the extreme. This is a benefit of starting on day one--you can acknowledge the need for a course correction in month ten. In fact, it is not the new approach of the Obama administration that has failed, but rather, this is a moment of clarity regarding the bankruptcy of the old approach that has guided policy for over a decade and that the Obama team had inherited and embraced.

As Rob Malley and others have argued, what is needed now is a review (as has been conducted in other foreign policy areas) and a testing and likely abandonment of many of the prevailing policy assumptions. These might include the notion that one can incrementally build confidence between the sides when the prevailing reality is one of occupation, that bilateral negotiations between representatives of an occupied people and the occupying party can deliver de-occupation, that Palestinian political division should be encouraged (not overcome), or that proven self governance capacity under occupation is a precondition for freedom and independence.

If the goal still is Israel's security, recognition, and a guaranteed future as a democracy and a Jewish national home, alongside a secure, viable, and post-occupation Palestine and advancing America's national interest, and this should be the goal, then a new path is needed for reaching that destination. It will certainly require more international and U.S. lifting.

The Obama team is perfectly capable of charting a course from a bad week to a game-changing success, but more of the same won't get them there.


18 Comments

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The Obama team is perfectly capable of charting a course from a bad week to a game-changing success,

I guess my crystal ball is not as sparkling clean as yours. I don't know what, other than past performance, is a good predictor of future success. So yes, everything is possible. In Principle. But the most likely future, for a reasonable observer, is that the US will not change course.

It would be a more useful analysis to ask why, what forces are operating and keeping the US on the current path, rather than to cheer lead.

If you insist on the latter, please dress accordingly.

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http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/support-the-boycott-israel-campaign-1.522042

This is an article that brings up Issues that I thought only J Street was addressing!

There is a story going around that the Obama admin may have cut a deal in Pakistan with the military leaders..In the Asia Times...

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What a waste of time. Our government should expend effort where there is some likelihood of making a difference.

Anyone want to bet a coke there will be no progress whatsoever in the next ten years ? Zero.

Fantasy : ignore them, shut off outside help to all sides, put up a wall around the whole mess and turn the cameras off. Let them fight in isolation until they get tired and quit. Alas it will never happen.

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There's going to be a readjust. Obama's staked a great deal of his presidency on this issue and won't let it go just because of a setback. Plus, the administration's awareness of the policy implications for the region won't permit them to abandon the peace process.

Such are the hazards of dealing with multiple domestic and foreign crises at a time. At least he can't be accused of "dithering" on the I/P question like his critics are alleging with Afghanistan.

I can't help but think that the heated domestic climate is clouding our ability to evaluate Obama's foreign policy. Judgments are being based on short-term news and the president's domestic opponents' willingness to fill airtime when they sense vulnerability.

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US policy toward Israel is unsustainable as presently conceived and as conducted for the past four decades. The whole relationship needs rethinking or our Middle East policy will forever be captive to this tiny and basically insignificant nation.

"Now is the time to say to the United States: Enough flattery. If you don't change the tone, nothing will change. As long as Israel feels the United States is in its pocket, and that America's automatic veto will save it from condemnations and sanctions, that it will receive massive aid unconditionally, and that it can continue waging punitive, lethal campaigns without a word from Washington, killing, destroying and imprisoning without the world's policeman making a sound, it will continue in its ways." - Gideon Levy (Haaretz), quoted in Glenn Greenwald's column on the current debacle:

http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/glenn_greenwald/2009/11/02/levy/index.html


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One state is the only solution. Everything else is a distraction that gives Israelis false hope of superiority forever and prolongs Palestinian misery.

Lots of Jewish people will leave when Israel/Palestine finally becomes a true democracy, just like countless Afrikaners did in South Africa once apartheid ended, but many will stay and help figure out how to make it work as an egalitarian state.

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There will be no readjustment because David Axelrod knows damn well what happened to the last Democratic President who tried to mess with Israel. Not gonna happen.

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Why not try option 1? Why not play hardball with Israel for a change? Why let the tail wag the dog?

Why?

I'll tell you why: because Israeli supporters control our MSM; they are key players in this administration (e.g. Rahm Emanuel, David Axelrod); and they own Congress as a consequence of AIPAC bribes . . . uh, I mean . . . campaign contributions.

And of course, the Israeli cabal knows better than any of us that our leaders are totally and completely gutless. Witness the House this week whooping thru a resolution (H Res 867) that was 16 paragraphs of nothing but lies, distortions and fiction unbelievable enough to make even a Hollywood screen writer blush.

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from Joe Klein: The Israelis have been difficult, as always: whenever Mitchell raises East Jerusalem in talks with the Israeli Foreign Minister, the Israeli stands up and walks out of the room. Despite Netanyahu's momentary, tactical enthusiasm for peace talks, his Likud Party has always favored the de facto incorporation of Palestinian lands into the state of Israel.

who's the boss? certainly it's not the US that is in the drivers seat. the US and the EU right now are sitting in the back seat with netanyahu behind the wheel and lieberman riding shotgun. unless this dynamic changes, this car is not following any road map other than that of a greater apartheid israel.

here is the next step that the obama administration is contemplating:

The American plan will include inviting Abbas and Netanyahu to the White House, where the resumption of negotiations will be announced. This remains conditional on Abbas lifting his opposition. Subsequently an international conference will be held in Moscow, similar to the Madrid Conference of 1991, with the participation of Arab leaders, the UN, the EU and Russia. At the conference it will be declared that the negotiations aim to bring Israel's occupation to an end and the establishment of a Palestinian state within 18 to 24 months. [ link ]

what pressure will be brought on recalcitrant israel to establish a 'palestinian state within 18 to 24 months'? there is international agreement about what the general outline to the resolution of the I-P conflict should be. what is lacking is international will. unless there are any international pressures with solid consequences, this car will just spin its wheels while the back seat passengers sleep and dream of nobel peace prizes and the front seat driver laughs and jokes about the suckers sitting in the back.

destination: jerusalem, the eternal undivided capital of israel via ethnic cleansing.

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It is a long time since I have read such a complete load of crap!

I don't know who you are, Daniel Levy, (other than one of us), but you come over as a young intern who has been asked by your boss to write 250 words on the conflict and you have stayed up all night with Wiki etc and produced this load of garbage replete a plethora of polysyllabic text that is absolutely meaningless.

Nowhere do you even mention AIPAC's hold on US foreign policy! As if that is a figment of the fevered imagination of anti-Zionists or rabid anti_Semites - instead of being the glaringly obvious truth that even a 4 year old kid would know.

Nowhere do you acknowledge that it is Likud's agenda to achieve a 'Greater Israel' as if you have never even heard of such a policy! Where have you been - in a plastic bag?

My old Daddy used to say, 'If you have nothing to say, keep your fucking mouth tightly shut so that no one will guess you're real stupid'. I think that's what he used to say.

My advice: get real. Divorce yourself from propaganda and learn the facts and the truth. Then try writing a few words on the subject. Until then, keep stum.

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Being facetious or don't know how to Google?

By the way, he's been a regular contributor here for several years, and he usually does write at length for his pieces here.

Example: his Dec. 2008 post titled Israeli Settler Pogrom Against Palestinians; CFR/Brookings Report Suggests Linking U.S. Aid to Settlement Freeze.

It's a pity that, as with several of the Cafe contributors, the tech people seem to have screwed up the availability of his archives and one has to find his past posts here through Google. Another pity is that they seem to have lost the contributor biographies they used to have when you clicked on the writer's name. (I recall one of the reasons Marshall gave for changing the software here because it was getting too cliquish and assumed knowledge of the site to comment--well it doesn't help much on that front if regular users have to explain who the columnists are and what their history here is.)

On the shortness of the post, maybe he's finally learning to do the more simplistic posts on topic that the many commenters here seem to prefer? (Now I the one being facetious.)

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A fair assessment by a dedicated proponent of peace.

Daniel may be guilty of forever trying to squeeze the proverbial 11 lbs of hummous into the 10 lb bag, but that's the chick pea conundrum that is the conflict. The tireless efforts of characters like Daniel and his Palestinian partners will eventually contribute to a sustainable peace for Israel and the other chick pea nations.

Israelis know Obama presents them with a whole new set of new opportunities. It will behoove Israel to be a part of the regional rethink.

Some disappointing comments from the troglodyte contingent here.

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AIPAC has had Congress in its pocket for decades. Half of the members of Congress showed up at its last convention. None of them dares to reduce, restrict, or qualify the literally untold billions in annual military aid to Israel. Whatever Israel wants. How may we help you?

AIPAC calls the shots in US Middle East policy and probably always will. Netanyahu doesn't have to do anything the President tells him too as long as AIPAC says he doesn't have to. AIPAC in effect runs the US State Department regardless how many speeches President Obama makes in Cairo. Note that the State Department finds itself in essential agreement with the shameless anti-Goldstone resolution which the House passed this week.

It's quite a system. AIPAC, ironically and bizarrely, (i)resembles(/i) nothing quite so much as "the learned elders of Zion," yet if anyone dares to speak a word in protest of the extent of their control he is labeled an anti-Semite by the ADL, the Israeli Embassy, and the Israeli UN Ambassador. This is why Israel policy is never debated as openly and as vigorously in our MSM as in Israel itself. In Israel you can question extreme right policy positions and not have to worry about being personally attacked as a Jew-hater. Not so in the USA. Ask Jimmy Carter and any number of American professors. Ask Ezra Klein, Joe Klein, Matt Yglesias, Spencer Ackerman and Dana Goldstein. Ask Daniel Levy.

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John/; how can you have the temerity to even suggest such a thing? AIPAC having undue influence over legislators? What nonsense! We live in a democracy where the majority will prevails - not the will of a tiny minority.

I guess you just must be confused. Obama is the US president not Netanyahu. AIPAC exists as an organization purely for the benefit and welfare of its members and their legitimate interests. It has no control or influence over Middle East foreign policy decisions. And it has no financial link with Israel or with any arms manufacturers in any country.

And lastly, AIPAC is not in the business of coercing anyone, either in or out of the political arena. AIPAC is a completely transparent lobby group that speaks for ...er ... well anyway, it's completely transparent and certainly doesn't use its substantial funds in endorsing political candidates or rejecting others. That is the job of the electorate.

As I have said, American democracy is well and strong and acts for the good of the majority.

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"It has no control or influence over Middle East foreign policy decisions." - bluecanary

Surely you must be writing with tongue in cheek.

In the current brouhaha over settlements, AIPAC is promoting policies which are opposite the announced policy goals of President Obama and the US State Department, which has re-stated existing US policy that the settlements are illegal and illegitimate under international law. Netanyahu called on AIPAC which was able to drive a wedge between the Administration and its friends in Congress in support of Netanyahu's intransigience on the matter, forcing the President of the United States to back down. The POTUS is not in control of policy; AIPAC is.

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If you're for partition then you're for segregation. And if you think the proper road-map for the future of the world is the path of segregation, then let's keep driving down this dead-end street.

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Segregation or official apartheid is exactly the road Israel is headed down. At the end of that road in a matter of decades is a disenfranchised Palestinian-Arab majority living in "a Jewish state" run by the Jewish minority.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUMeyUlx6yc

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