TPMCafe
« Medical Technology Arms Race | Home | Connected Cars: The 'Killer App' For The Smart Grid--And The New Driver of Growth »

What Happened Tonight

user-pic

It's 10:45 PM at the White House and I hope Barack and David Axelrod are having a beer on the second floor. One year ago they won a generational election as the anti-establishment candidate of change. Tonight, no matter how you slice it, the Democrats lost two big statehouses (New Jersey and Virginia), because they were perceived as the party of the establishment. A little more than two hours ago I read a speech by a famous investor who explained in simple terms how a Democratic Congress, in the fall of 2008 and then a Democratic administration, in the spring of 2009, got played by the oligarchs on Wall Street.

David Einhorn, who runs Greenlight Capital is a pretty smart investor. I don't always agree with him, but he gave a speech a couple of weeks ago that I hope will eventually reach the desk of our President. Einhorn's belief, like mine, is that much of the backlash flowing around the health care debate (or even tonight's election) is not really about healthcare--but more about a general sense that the average citizen is a pawn in a rigged game run by corporate special interests and a clueless Congress. The real root of the populist anger was in the bailout of the banks.

In the context of the recent economic crisis, a highly motivated and organized banking lobby has demonstrated enormous influence. Bankers advance ideas like, "without banks, we would have no economy." Of course, there was a public interest in protecting the guts of the system, but the ATMs could have continued working, even with forced debt-to-equity conversions that would not have required any public funds. Instead, our leaders responded by handing over hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars to protect the speculative investments of bank shareholders and creditors. This has been particularly remarkable, considering that most agree that these same banks had an enormous role in creating this mess which has thrown millions out of their homes and jobs.

The critical line here is, "but the ATMs could have continued working, even with forced debt-to-equity conversions that would not have required any public funds". In other words, Goldman Sachs, Citibank, JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch bondholders might have had to convert all their debt to equity, but the system would have survived without the $700 billion tax-payer bailout. But what is Geithner proposing now?
On the anniversary of Lehman's failure, President Obama gave a terrific speech. He said, "Those on Wall Street cannot resume taking risks without regard for the consequences, and expect that next time, American taxpayers will be there to break the fall." Later he advocated an end of "too big to fail." Then he added, "For a market to function, those who invest and lend in that market must believe that their money is actually at risk." These are good points that he should run by his policy team, because Secretary Geithner's reform proposal does exactly the opposite.

The financial reform on the table is analogous to our response to airline terrorism by frisking grandma and taking away everyone's shampoo, in that it gives the appearance of officially "doing something" and adds to our bureaucracy without really making anything safer. With the ensuing government bailout, we have now institutionalized the idea of too big- to-fail and insulated investors from risk.


And Einhorn also points out that the problem of Credit Default Swaps has not gone away, it's merely been subsidized by the taxpayers while the vultures throw more companies into bankruptcy (CIT yesterday, GMAC maybe tomorrow).
The proposed reform does not deal with the serious risks that the recent crisis exposed. Credit Default Swaps, which create large, correlated and asymmetric risks, scared the authorities into spending hundreds of billions of taxpayer money to prevent the speculators who made bad bets from having to pay. CDS are also highly anti-social. Bondholders who also hold CDS make a bigger return when the issuing firms fail. As a result, holders of so-called "basis packages" - a bond and a CDS - have an incentive to use their position as bondholders to force bankruptcy triggering payment on their CDS, rather than negotiate traditional out of court restructurings or covenant amendments with troubled creditors. Press accounts have noted that this dynamic has contributed to the recent bankruptcies of Abitibi-Bowater, General Growth Properties, Six Flags and even General Motors. They are a pending problem in CIT's efforts to avoid bankruptcy. The reform proposal to create a CDS clearing house does nothing more than maintain private profits and socialized risks by moving the counter-party risk from the private sector to a newly created too-big-to-fail entity. I think that trying to make safer CDS is like trying to make safer asbestos. How many real businesses have to fail before policy makers decide to simply ban them?

Larry Summers and Tim Geithner and even Rahm Emanuel, have been so inside the Wall Street game for so long that they have no idea of the level of anger directed at the capitalists who have managed to scam a few trillion out of the public coffers with phrases like "without the banks, we would have no economy". President Obama needs to listen to other voices on the economy or else the pitchfork brigade may show up outside the White House next November. We did not elect him to bring us more of the same--more dominance of our national policy by the military industrial complex, the Big Banks, Big Pharma, Big Insurance and Big Oil.

The irony is that if Obama started kicking ass and taking names with the syncophants of the Fortune 500 that sit in Congress, I bet a lot of Glenn Beck's audience might even take notice. And surely, Axelrod doesn't plan to run the 2010 campaign without the youth vote, which was totally absent tonight. This is a teaching moment. Let's hope the President understands this.


41 Comments

| Leave a comment
user-pic

"We did not elect him to bring us more of the same--more dominance of our national policy by the military industrial complex, the Big Banks, Big Pharma, Big Insurance and Big Oil."

You nailed it there. You could build a third party around that. 2010 is likely to be another throw the bums out election - unfortunate for the majority party but not necessarily for the American people. We may need several throw the bums out elections before we get to that change we can believe in.

user-pic

Supreme Court determined money is free speech and will soon rule (this term) that corporations are the same as citizens (without the responsibilities, of course).
Third party, shmird party. Nobody gets elected without corporate backing. Anbody TRULY anti-establishment who managed to somehow attain the presidency would be bought off or killed.
Don't struggle too much as they slip on the chains my friends.

user-pic

The election today was a reaction to Obama's lack of providing the "change we can believe in".

There has been no change in many very important areas.

The wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan.
The politicization of the Justice Department.
Guantanimo.
Bushies now serving as Obama's US Attorneys.
The stimulus packages (giveaways) started by the Bush Administration.
The lack of progress on health care reform.

In general, the lack of any meaningful change in Washington.
.

user-pic

I read it.

If the job is to big for the current crop of executives and legislators, they need replacement.

There is much Obama could have done already in his capacity as Commander-in-Chief concerning the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan. He has esclated at least three of these.

There is much he could have done concerning closing Guantanimo - he has done nothing except talk about closing it.

There is much Obama could have done about health care reform. He has been conspicuously silent - not taking a stand on this issue.

There is much he could have done to counter the appointments of "Bushies" to US Attorneys and to posts in the Department of Justice - he has left them in their positions.

There is much he could have done to promote open government - he has used the same "National Security" and "Executive Priviledge" arguments that Bush used to prevent open government.

There is much he could have done to halt the giveaway's to banks in the form of "bailouts" - he continued the bailout process.

Where is all this "Change we can Believe in?

It is no wonder voters are turning against Obama.

Note: The only major "success" of democrats was against a really right wingnut in New York State.

These are not the promised "Changes We Can Believe In" that were promised to the American people.

user-pic

of course the youth vote was missing. Obama was not on the ticket and the candidates he endorsed were not exciting whatsoever to young people.

Let's not read too much into this. My favorite NBA team has won their first four games straight, but I'm not betting on them to beat the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals just yet.

user-pic

Deeds was a disaster and deserved to lose after the failed candidacy he presented. I guess my big question here is how did he become the nominee? Did the Democratic party drop the ball in letting him get this far, or was the roster of alternatives that weak as to offer no better candidate?

Corzine was roundly disliked in New Jersey, a very high tax state, and was ripe for the picking. In spite of that, he did come close to pulling a victory out of his hat.

We still have Owens in NY 23, who could very well be the first Democrat elected from the district in over a century. I see that as a more startling turn of evens than the NJ & VA losses, although a Congressman has nowhere near the juice a governor does when elections come around.

user-pic

I'll offer the following observations as a northern Virginia resident. Deeds won the nomination partly because it was a weak field, from the standpoint of candidates with curb appeal.

Many Dems, me included, intensely dislike the brand of politics Terry McAuliffe is seen as representing. Brian Moran, a little-known state rep from northern Virginia who was the 3rd Dem candidate in the primary, never got much traction. Deeds had no previous visibility in vote-rich northern Virginia, whereas McDonnell claimed northern Virginia roots.

Even in endorsing Deeds, the WashPost noted--3 times!--that he was a poor campaigner.

I think that was true on both an optics/stylistic level and on a campaign-content level. Watching ads from McDonnell and Bolling I could not tell whether they were Democrats or Republicans. They emphasized transportation, class-size cuts, increasing teacher salary, and, oh, by the way, cutting taxes.

But tax cuts was never the lead theme on the TV ads I saw in northern Virginia, where transportation is a huge problem. It is important to bear in mind, in response to those claiming last night's results as a rebuke to Obama, that the Republican candidates did not lead in their general public audience pitches with tax cuts or other historically dominant Republican themes. I never saw a TV ad graphic or audio mention of Obama.

Contrast this campaign with the campaign run by the last Republican gubernatorial victor, Jim Gilmore, whose big issue was eliminating the car tax, pre-Warner. He proved to be a terrible governor.

I kept hoping the Deeds campaign would hammer McDonnell for offering a bunch of proposals which, combined, didn't come close to passing the smell test. One thing a lot of Virginians who aren't especially partisan have appreciated about both Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, our two preceding Democratic governors, is that they've done a good job with the state's finances while protecting spending priorities important to the voters.

Deeds had little effective to say or offer on these issues or any other issues of importance to the voters. He was not a good communicator. So we're stuck with McDonnell, who is telegenic and a pretty good campaigner who succeeded in persuading most of the swing voters he wasn't scary as some of his past actions suggest he was, and may still be.

If anyone has links to exit poll or other data bearing on any of the above, or Jonathan's, interpretations, I'd appreciate those being posted.

user-pic

A wake up call moment.

The message I take from tonight, with Corzine losing and Bloomberg's close call, is that it is not a good thing to be associated with Wall Street/the oligarchy right now. This was not some referendum on Obama nor does it represent a GOP renessaince (as the TV talking heads seem to be trying to spin tonight)...this was a referendum on the powers to be who put corporations, and their CEO's, ahead of the American people. You stand with the obscenely rich SOB's who aren't satisfied with what they have and somehow feel entitled to it all...you will be voted out. Have pitchforks will travel!!!

Raise taxes on the Wall Street types, ease back on what the rest of us have to pay and get Americans back to work in good paying jobs or you will be history, end of story...and, pun intended, you can take that to the bank(s).

user-pic

And now Hoffman's loss in NY-23 is the exclamation point to the unmistakable message sent tonight...if you are part of the 'powers to be', left or right (Beck, Limbaugh and Palin take note your golden boy lost a solid R seat that the party had held for 100 years) you will be taken out at the ballot box.

user-pic

If the "powers that be" are in such distaste, then Obama should also be nervous come 2012. And in NY-23 interestingly 6% of the people voted for Scozzofava...maybe they didn't realize she had dropped out? If that was the case, who would they have voted for instead?

user-pic

EVERY incumbent needs to watch out in 2010, never mind 2012. Either things get done or people will be shown the door in a truly bi-partisan way. And I shortchanged the R's NY-23...I think a R has held that seat since the Civil War. And the people who voted for Scozzafava knew exactly who they were voting for. In an off-off-year election only the most die hard voters are hitting the polls. The Scozzafava voters were protest voters...protesting carpetbaggers coming in and trying to tell them who to elect. Like I said, no a good night to be an establishment candidate on either side.

user-pic

If you thought it would be a close enough race and you cared who won, would you really "protest" and vote for somebody who had dropped out?

user-pic

And why did the D candidates do so poorly in NJ and Virginia? Because the liberals/progressives are pissed off and they stayed home...en masse. It didn't help that Deeds and Corzine were terrible, in biblical proportions, candidates. Wake up D's...more people are still losing their jobs, homes and have no health care and you own the problems now. You can play bi-partisan footsies with the R's and get nothing accomplished, which is the R's goal, and be back out of power in a New York minute.

user-pic

I disagree. I live in Jersey and most of these people are greedy idiots who really think Christie will somehow be able to cut their taxes AND maintain the mandatory balanced budget.
My conspiracy theory is that Corzine lost on purpose because he sees some other opportunity that is more attractive to him. Remember, he has been through a near death experience after all.

user-pic

"Larry Summers and Tim Geithner and even Rahm Emanuel, have been so inside the Wall Street game for so long that they have no idea of the level of anger directed at the capitalists who have managed to scam a few trillion out of the public coffers with phrases like "without the banks, we would have no economy"."

Ya think?

I find it interesting that Mr. Taplin seems to fall into the category of wishful thinkers who believe that Obama is somehow not "one of them" meaning Geithner, Summers and Emmanuel. Let me be the first to burst your bubble Mr. Taplin: Obama IS one of them!

He too has been so submerged for so long in the bullshit elitist atmosphere of money and influence that he not only is one of them but he is the number one one of them. He has sold out the nation's common people and not because his evil advisors have tricked our good President into doing bad things. He knew and knows exactly what he did and he has no more problem with it than those creeps he has hired to help him.

user-pic

The big losers tonight? The political center and far right wing, aka 'the powers to be'. Nobody who is part of the status quo is safe in their office right now...the barbarians are at the gate.

The American people, said in the words of Dave Wyndorf, time to kill this game and are willing to search and destroy.

Space Lord Mother Mother...HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

8-)

user-pic

Not so much the political center but "centrists" the amoral, bought and paid for political hacks.

user-pic



Geez ... I'm soooooo suprised . . .


Einhorn's belief, like mine, is that much of the backlash flowing around the health care debate (or even tonight's election) is not really about healthcare--but more about a general sense that the average citizen is a pawn in a rigged game run by corporate special interests and a clueless Congress.

Anyone wish to buy a used car?

Nothing down only $100 a month ..... for the rest of your life.

Make sure you go visit my latest Cafe blog and take a quick read of the health care bullcrap of "...the big print giveth... and the small print taketh away. . .

~OGD~

user-pic

"A rigged game" that's the phrase John Edwards used to describe our system of government and economics long before the economic collapse last year. It's a shame he imploded as he did. Perhaps someone with some stature will pick up that banner and direct all that anger in a positive direction for change.

user-pic

The names Russ Feingold, Sherrod Brown and Bernie Sanders jump to mind right now...

user-pic

Bernie is my number one pick. Despite his non-kennedyesque looks, I think he could actually win using the novel tactic of honestly addressing the concerns of the vast majority of Americans and offering real solutions... that work instead of band aids that only help those who need no help to begin with.

user-pic

Actually, the way it should be reported is, the Hoffman defeat in NY-23 is the most significant development of the evening. While the R's defeats are noteworthy the R's have held the statehouses in NJ and VA repeatedly, and recently, in the past. NY-23 was a seat that was one of the safest of the safe seats for the R's, for 100 years in fact. That was the biggest stunner in terms of being an upset tonight. But of course the press will talk about NJ and VA and try to explain some how why the results are a negative message about Obama and the D's.

user-pic

I meant to say while the D's defeats are noteworthy in the above post.

user-pic

It's the 3 am phone call for both parties, for different reasons.

Tonight's message is that the Republican base is still somewhat bamboozleable if there's no Republican moderate in the mix and the Democratic candidate has a flaw that can be attacked.

The Passionate Democrats, though--the ideologicaly driven Green-leaners--not so much. They're really peeved about the Captains of Industry snuffling at the trough a year into this thing. And when you take a bunch of passionate, do the right thing types and underwhelm them, the silence is deafening.

So yeah, this is a beer moment for Obama and Axelrod.

user-pic

Obama's let's just all get along approach is one that would make America and the world better off with if more people followed it as a general long term philosophy, but it is not a good way to tackle some of America's most immediate and thorniest challenges. It is also very much not what the Democrats need electorally. They need a hard kick in the behind, repeated regularly, and coming from mainstream America, not the loony bin wing nut mythmakers. Maybe this election will help start delivering such kicks, though I doubt it.

Dems did not lose yesterday because they are "the establishment." They haven't even had the White House for a year yet. Without 9-11 to make Americans become massively stupid and gullible, W would have been floundering worse than Obama at this early stage.

No, they lost because they have been their usual complete wimp selfs throughout 2009, largely wasting their best opportunity for accomplishing things, ready to agonize endlessly over the supposed trauma of racial bitterness that was supposedly relevant to an actually foregone Supreme Court appointment confirmation, but not able to roll up their sleeves, use their majorities and mandates to pass laws dealing with real immediate tangible and serious problems, and tell the Republicans to go to the hell they were busy making for the previous 8 years.

user-pic
user-pic

In NJ and VA it was a status quo election because these exact results have been happening there for decades now.

What that means is that the only talked about revolutionary party is the republican party, the democrats being the status quo party.

There is an opening for the Independent parties to take advantage of.

user-pic

Jonathan, much as I might prefer to accept your interpretation of last night's results over some others being freely offered, do you have any data to support your argument on what last night meant?

Yahoo's home page now links to Politico's election night summary. It quotes numerous spinners on both sides without citing a single piece of data--exit polls, pre-Election polls, statements by non-spinner voters, whatever--to support the opinions its authors express. I'd expect better from John Harris, one of the co-authors of the piece.

user-pic

The data I have is that the Obama victory coalition: The Young, people of color and hard core progressives stayed home yesterday.

user-pic

Thank you for replying. I appreciate it.

Would you be so kind as to provide a source or two to support those statements?

user-pic

From Mike Allen at Politico
http://www.politico.com/playbook/

HOWARD FINEMAN, on MSNBC’s “Countdown”: “This was a revolution in reverse, or a rebellion reverse in the sense that it was as much about people who didn’t turn out in Virginia and maybe as much about people who don’t turn out in New Jersey. The Obama supporters didn’t show up in anywhere near the numbers they did.”

EXIT POLLS:
— OBAMA APPROVAL — Virginia: 51 percent. New Jersey: 57 percent.
— OBAMA NOT A FACTOR IN VOTE — Virginia: 55 percent. New Jersey: 60 percent.

user-pic

One more
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/

Lesson No. 2: Obama’s Base Is No Longer Fired Up And Ready To Go: While last night wasn’t a referendum on Obama, Creigh Deeds probably wishes it was; he might have performed better. According to the exit polls, just 10% of the voters in Virginia were under the age of 30, down from 21% last year. What’s more, McDonnell won 18-29 year olds, 54%-44%. Also in Virginia yesterday, African Americans made up 16% of the vote, down from 20% last year. And then there’s this: 51% of yesterday’s voters in Virginia said they voted for McCain, while just 43% said they voted for Obama. Folks, Obama won this state last year by a nearly 53%-46% margin.

user-pic

Jonathan, thank you for replying and for the links--I will check them out. I appreciate it.

user-pic

There is also the following, from the astute and thoughtful John Judis, part of his election results review at The New Republic:

"In the exit polls, a majority of voters said Obama didn’t figure in their preferences, and Obama also scored relatively high in approval on exit polls. But I suspect that Obama was still a factor. If you look at the graphs that pollster.com [2] puts up that average out the polling findings, you find that towards the end of July, or in early August, the margin between Deeds and McDonnell jumped, and remained high for the rest of the election. At the very same time, Obama’s approval [3] numbers in Virginia plummeted, and except for some outlier polls, have remained below fifty percent.

In the polls put out by Public Policy Polling [4] in North Carolina, a Democratic firm whose estimates in Virginia and New Jersey turned out to be remarkably accurate, McDonnell’s margin over Deeds jumped from six points to 14 points between June 30 and July 31. At the same time, Obama’s approval went from plus two to minus nine. On the eve of the election, PPP still had Obama with a minus nine in approval.

In PPP’s last poll, there is also another interesting correlation. The poll shows McDonnell winning 15 percent of the electorate that voted for Obama in 2008, and 13 percent of Democrats disapproving of the job that Obama is doing in office. That suggests that Democrats who disapproved of Obama were likely to vote for McDonnell. This is not to say that disapproval of Obama doomed Deeds; only that it may have been a factor in the defeat of Deeds and other Democrats on the statewide ticket."

I'm sure Judis would readily acknowledge that correlation is not causation and that what he is offering is also conjecture.

user-pic

And why wouldn't they? Obama has produced nothing they were hoping for and neither Corzine nor Deeds offered anything attractive at all, let alone change on the order minorities and the young want to see.

user-pic

Where are the progressives on this? Their primary villains, at least on these pages, seem to be tea-bagger hoi-polloi, the grudge drudges clinging to God and guns, not the economic elite. Where were solid demands to re-regulate? One smart move: Stop pouring contempt on favored targets, picturing the fight as Freedom Riders facing hayseed racists. Make the left viable again. Make it relevant. Stop living in the past. Or we're lost.

user-pic

All this is pretty funny since it really wasn't the banks that were bailed out. The people who were bailed out were the bondholders, who had their interests protected by the federal government. A modern financial institution is really just a collection of contracts with a pretty logo; the Federal government has, time and again, favored certain kinds of contracts over other kinds.

And the favoritism is an outgrowth of a longtime Wall Street preference and bias toward the fixed income securities markets, at the expense of equity.

I've learned something in the past year: bondholders have better lobbyists than stockholders.

user-pic

I'd argue that the Wall Street bailout was Obama's finest moment. True, many hate the idea that these greedy financial corporations were propped up with taxpayer dollars. But at least Obama looked like a decisive leader during the bailout. Post-bailout, Obama has looked weak and ineffectual. His inability to set a clear path toward health care reform and rein in the Democratic party has hurt him. Combine this with a confusing policy in Afghanistan and no strong agenda in other areas and he starts to look like a lightweight. I love his intelligence and his values, but the guy is starting to drift. He's got to get focused or his Presidency is headed the way of the Carter Presidency. Best intentions . . . no results . . . no second term.

user-pic

Leave a comment

Advertisement
Please disable your adblocker!
Ads are how we pay the bills!

Subscribe

The Coffee House
TPMCafe's regulars

House Brew
From Your Cafe Editor

Special Guests
Big names and big brains

Special Features
Pressing topics and trends

Table for One
An expert's week-long talk.

All Reader Posts
TPM readers discuss.

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address