Nation-building at Home
When ideology trumps reality, political parties enter a dead zone where no facts can be marshalled and politicians seem to live in a truth-free world. Take Mitt Romney this morning.
Romney said on CBS's "The Early Show" that the administration's stimulus plan "didn't work" and he said the reason things seem to be ticking up in the business world is because the "private sector" has regained its equilibrium on its own.
The reality as Paul Krugman points out is the opposite of what Romney contends.
Not that long ago the U.S. economy was in free fall. Without the recovery act, the free fall would probably have continued, as unemployed workers slashed their spending, cash-strapped state and local governments engaged in mass layoffs, and more.
But now, pushed by the new found Republican fear of deficits (when did that ever stop Reagan or Bush from pushing Pentagon budgets through the roof?) and centrist Democrats lack of economic literacy, the thought is: "the recessions over, lets cut spending." But Krugman points out the fallacy.
Suppose that the economy were to keep growing at 3.5 percent. If that happened, unemployment would eventually start falling -- but very, very slowly. The experience of the Clinton era, when the economy grew at an average rate of 3.7 percent for eight years (did you know that?) suggests that at current growth rates we'd be lucky to see the unemployment rate fall by half a percentage point per year, meaning that it would take a decade to return to something like full employment.Worse yet, it's far from clear that growth will continue at this rate. The effects of the stimulus will build over time -- it's still likely to create or save a total of around three million jobs -- but its peak impact on the growth of G.D.P. (as opposed to its level) is already behind us. Solid growth will continue only if private spending takes up the baton as the effect of the stimulus fades. And so far there's no sign that this is happening.
So the government needs to do much more. Unfortunately, the political prospects for further action aren't good.
Friday's consumption report shows that for the first time in two decades, American's are learning how to save. For the long-term health of our economy this is a good thing. But the for the short-term prospects of an economy addicted to consumer spending (72% compared to China's 38% and Germany's 51%), it means that the private sector will not be providing any jobs soon. In fact, I'm guessing that after Christmas a lot more retail stores will close, bringing with it the possibility of a double dip recession.
Tom Friedman suggested that the reason that Obama has not been able to get everyone on board politically is that he hasn't brought all the threads together.
He has not tied all his programs into a single narrative that shows the links between his health care, banking, economic, climate, energy, education and foreign policies. Such a narrative would enable each issue and each constituency to reinforce the other and evoke the kind of popular excitement that got him elected...What is that project? What is that narrative? Quite simply it is nation-building at home. It is nation-building in America.
I've always believed that Mr. Obama was elected because a majority of Americans fear that we're becoming a declining great power. Everything from our schools to our energy and transportation systems are falling apart and in need of reinvention and reinvigoration. And what people want most from Washington today is nation-building at home.
Here's the deal. It's time to stop the $2 Trillion nation-building program in Iraq and Afghanistan and bring the money and troops home. We have a much more important nation-building project called the United States of America.





















Republican and Centrist Democrat Mantra: Money to Kill those you despise -> GOOD ! Money to Help those you despise -> BAD !
C
November 2, 2009 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's what Roubini has to say about the world economy
http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/257912/mother_of_all_carry_trades_faces_an_inevitable_bust
He has an excellent record in these matters.
I believe that the American economy is increasingly unable to maintain full employment due to technological increases in productivity, population growth, and globalization. Hence ever more frequent and severe bubbles as the whole system approaches collapse.
Bringing the troops home is a ridiculous solution. It will significantly reduce our access to raw materials and provide less employment for the uneducated and unskilled. The world is becoming more dangerous, not less. Leaving the field to others will not improve our situation.
As far as I know, no one has a solution. Politicians, of course, run for office on promises...but each guy fails and leaves the problems to his successor.
November 2, 2009 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mitt Romney is also not in line with the very mianstream Wall Street economists that firms like Bain Capital rely on.
Most are forecasting slower growth for 2010 as stimulus leaks out of the system. The Fed will slowly curtail some programs. Cash for Clunkers is already over. The first time homebuyer credit will expire. The inventory replenishment cycle will eventually end as companies realize there's plenty of inventory out there to meet reduced demand...
And lets not forget that 3.5% GDP growth is not good. It's not robust. It's not going to provide improving living standards.
The stimulus was okay but not enough.
November 2, 2009 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
We're definitely on a sinking ship and depending on how much longer bailing it out will keep it afloat will determine how long before we go under - but I'm afraid we are going under, it's just a matter of time.
Politicians', as has been blatantly obvious since Reagan, only concern is to appear disassociated from the entire economic debacle - inception to final result, which is why their periodic soundings off on the subject are not and need not be coherent.
November 2, 2009 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the signs of trouble were out before Reagan - Nixon had to take us off the gold standard - , maybe long before Reagan.
The frontier closed in 1912, the third world was significantly industrializing even before WWII.
November 2, 2009 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that any money we have sent or will send to Iraq is basically a waste.
I disagree that Krugman is any more reliable a source than Romney on the stimulus. They are equally hostage to their respective partisan agendas, and have an equal disrespect for the actual situation, not that either of them bother to investigate it.
The stimulus may have done some good, but no one has, to date, done any respectable study on what the actual cetaris paribus effects have been on the economy.
November 3, 2009 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink