Itchy Fingers on the Iran Sanctions Trigger
After taking part in discussions of several excellent foreign policy books over at TPMCafe Book Club, I'm grateful to the editors here for letting me join the fun as a regular blogger in the Cafe. I should quickly add a plug for my original blog home of Democracy Arsenal, a thriving collective of card-carrying foreign policy wonks.
So let me start with the negotiations over Iran's nuclear program -- conservative drumbeats for imposing stronger sanctions in particular. In Thursday's Washington Post, Bob Kagan gave his version of the real-presidents-bring-the-hammer-down argument (Peter Feaver of Shadow Government was ahead of Bob by a month). These arguments are only partly aimed at achieving the desired outcome with Iran; to a great extent they're a continuation of the debate over toughness, resolve, and the proper use of American power. They also reveal conservatives' lingering naivete about both the practicalities and likely effect of a premature push for sanctions.
To review exactly where things stand, Iran, the US, and other key powers are negotiating over a plan to ship nearly three-quarters of Iran's declared supply of enriched Uranium to Russia to be turned into fuel rods that Iran can then use in civilian reactors. If carried out, this plan would significantly slow Iran's progress toward nuclear weapon capability and buy valuable time. According to the latest reports, Iran is balking at the deal, giving contrasting public and private messages, and potentially insisting on terms that would undercut the agreement.
What's to be done when confronted with such resistance? The conservatives say slap on some additional sanctions (Iran remains under a set of existing sanctions). But there's an internal tension in their position. The advocates of new sanctions are the same skeptics who have expressed such doubt that key powers like Russia -- whose support of course is needed to impose sanctions -- would really step up. My response to which is, yes, they won't go along until Iran is convincingly shown to be uncooperative. To press the matter before good faith has truly been strained is bound to be taken as a provocation, and maybe that would be gratifying to conservatives in order to validate their belief in the uselessness of diplomacy.
Instead, in the words of a senator from last year's campaign, really "we need patient diplomacy, and that requires two things: patience and diplomacy." In other words, it's important to avoid underestimating the amount of time to reach a solution, but it's also crucial to make fullest use of that time by negotiating at a pretty rapid tempo.
To be sure, the recent indications are decidedly mixed, and there's no reason to be cheerily hopeful. One (underplayed) thing that strikes me, though, is the relatively swift pace of these talks. It would be interesting to have an empirical comparison, but this strikes me as a period of fairly steady interaction. The real enemies of a successful solution are diplomatic delay and drift, and so far I'm not seeing that.
Of course patience can't be limitless, or we'll find ourselves with an (at least "virtual") nuclear-armed Iran. Foreign Policy today has this thorough analysis from Hillary Mann Leverett, highlighting some interesting and seemingly legitimate practical considerations from the Iranian side. I do take issue, though, on one key point. Leverett attributes most of the skepticism and suspicion toward Iran to a cultural stereotype of Iranians as fundamentally untrustworthy. As someone who agrees with President Obama when he insists that talks lead to meaningful action by Iran, rather than being strung along, I say stereotypes have nothing to do with it. This is the game of any country trying to fend off intense international pressure and preserve its options. And it doesn't lead anywhere good.





















Oddly enough, I'm in favor of weaker sanctions here. While it's true that free traders often overstate the benefits of economic engagement I think we've been isolated from Iran for too long almost like Cuba. We could use the oil, frankly and might as well buy it might provide a bridge for diplomacy.
October 29, 2009 8:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
A new approach is needed for the Middle East.
Following the successes of the VietNam resurgance over the last ten years and the fact that it has become a friendly trading partner to the USA, it is past time for the USA to declare defeat in Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan, let them settle their own problems without outside interference, and in twenty (20) years or so, become friends and trading partners with them.
The USA has much to offer - other than guns, destruction, and the creation of poverty.
.
October 30, 2009 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
From media reports, part of the stalling by Iran appears to reflect internal divisions between hardliners resisting any concessions (and perhaps committed to achieving a nuclear weapons capability) and more moderate elements willing to make accomodations and refrain from rushing the pace of progress toward nuclear arms if Iran can achieve important concessions in return.
October 29, 2009 8:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I doubt there is a single reporter in the US media who has even the slightest idea what is happening inside Iran at the national government level.
October 30, 2009 7:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Some of the conflict has been played out in public, including denunciations of Ahmadinejad for being too conciliatory.
October 30, 2009 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Iran's concerns about shipping all of its LEU out are legitimate. How does it know it will get any bacK? Shipping the stuff in batches does in fact make more sense, and you'd do the same in their position
October 30, 2009 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
David,
Thank you for joining the fun, and for this measured post on the status of negotiations with Iran.
We've done our best (not without provocation) to let Iran know we had no desire to be friendly over the past 30 years. Then the previous administration put them on notice that we were their mortal enemy.
Like you, I'm struck, even a little surprised, by the pace of negotiations today. We don't know where it will lead, but I think the majority of the country understands, by now, that following the Neocon lead is a recipe for further disaster.
October 29, 2009 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm also a little shocked by how little we seem to be able to identify with Iran when it comes to what should really be easy negotiations.
Of COURSE they want nuclear weapons. Israel has them and can strike Iran if it wants. If you were Iran, what would you do?
October 29, 2009 10:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course I would. Any sane (or insane) neighbor of an aggressive nuclear-armed state backed by the world's foremost war-making superpower would.
That doesn't have to make it right, from our point of view, but it sure as hell makes it easy to understand.
October 29, 2009 10:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is what the Iranians say:
Secondly, we do not feel any real threat from our neighbours. Pakistan and the Persian Gulf, we have no particular problems with them, nor with Afghanistan. The only powerful country is Russia in the north, and no matter how many nuclear weapons we had we could not match Russia.
Israel, our next neighbour, we do not consider an entity by itself but as part of the US. Facing Israel means facing the US. We cannot match the US.
http://tinyurl.com/yan7kb8
October 30, 2009 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the link, haas.
October 30, 2009 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bob Kagan, the moron behind PNAC who pushed from the start for the Iraq War.
Peter Feaver, veteran of the disgraced Cheney administration.
Can we get a new foreign policy / punditry class? What will it take for these people to go away? How many times can they get it wrong?
October 29, 2009 10:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
The disgrace is that these arrogant traitors are even tolerated in public.
October 29, 2009 10:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
the primary mover to isolate and push america to attack iran is israel. what israel fears is 1) america making a strategic grand bargain with iran where iran becomes important than israel in helping american strategic interests in the middle east and 2) israel losing its bully status in the neighborhood which would prevent israel from realizing their greater israel dream.
October 29, 2009 11:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
where iran becomes more important than israel in helping american strategic interests in the middle east
October 29, 2009 11:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
The neocons haven't gone anywhere. If you want to know the skinny on the sanctions state of play (sorry) just watch the watchers @ the Weekly Standard et al. They know where the action is....
The itchiest trigger fingers are as always, in Congress. They're moving all this sanctions stuff to the forefront via the
."Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability and Divestment Act of 2009"; negotiations be damned:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2009/10/corker_amendment_shall_not_be.asp
The above article mentions other legislative sanctions efforts in addition to cutting off refined petroleum, "attempts to halt the flow of goods into Iran from Middle East ports" among them.
A blockade by any other name?
October 29, 2009 11:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Julian Borger @ The Guardian, October 29:
in the news section:
& on his blog:
October 30, 2009 12:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Premature? Surely you jest. It hardly seems likely that another decade of hemming and hawing will do much good.
October 30, 2009 1:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're absolutely right--it's due time for sanctions against Israel.
For starters, enforcing the Symington amendment.
October 31, 2009 2:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
What isn't clear is whether the "negotiations" were designed to fail.
In any case, just in case, we are finishing up a massive joint military operation, "Juniper Cobra", with Israel that is built around protecting Israel from anything launched their way from Iran, Syria, Lebanon and/or Gaza:
http://www.defense-update.com/analysis/juniper_cobra10_israel_211009.html
(The X-Band installation is the first and only official US base in Israel and access to it is tightly controlled and restricted to limited US personnel only. Nice to know that DOD contractors are involved at this level of "sensitivity")
October 30, 2009 2:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Another just in case report from the Happi Warriors @ DEBKAFILE:
http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=6343
How very gracious of Angela should this come to pass.
October 30, 2009 4:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
The NeoCons see sanctions as simply an increment towards war.
October 30, 2009 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is it to anyone's surprise if we come out and admit that it is us that wants to talk with the Iranians and not the other way around! But why is that?
Why is it that we need to speak with the Iranians and why they DO NOT want to speak with US?! Are we making the Iranian Nuclear program an issue to have an excuse to get them to talk with us?!
The Iranians are a signatory to the NPT, but that DOES NOT stipulates that any signatory to the NPT has to speak with the US afterward or to negotiate with us! So, why Iran has to negotiate with us? Other than the Military force that we posses, what else are we offering the Iranians to show some sort of interest in speaking with us?!
Iran has grate potential to become the next Japan. It has all the resources it needs, oil and energy, an educated population access to a market that we can’t reach. The Central Asia countries and the grater Middle East are just a start. The Iranians know that and wants us to pay attention to them and become a partner with them, but on their own terms not ours, is that to hard to way around. If we don’t show interest and force them into a corner, we are only going to be the loser at end. They need the Nuclear energy to speed up this goal to become industrialized and advance. That is only in our interest and they know it and if we are smart we should give them the leverage they need and become the partner they want. If we don’t, they will achieve it eventually, whether we like it or not.
If we relay want to stop the nuclear proliferation, we should start with the Zionists who have 200+ A-bombs for certain and have the IAEA to give the Dimona nuclear facilities a surprise inspection. We need to take care of what is for certain before going into another war for another imaginary WMD that is not there. So, lets have the Zionists to give up their 200+ A-bombs to set an example for the rest. After all they are the chosen people.
October 31, 2009 7:28 PM | Reply | Permalink