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Itchy Fingers on the Iran Sanctions Trigger

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After taking part in discussions of several excellent foreign policy books over at TPMCafe Book Club, I'm grateful to the editors here for letting me join the fun as a regular blogger in the Cafe. I should quickly add a plug for my original blog home of Democracy Arsenal, a thriving collective of card-carrying foreign policy wonks.

So let me start with the negotiations over Iran's nuclear program -- conservative drumbeats for imposing stronger sanctions in particular. In Thursday's Washington Post, Bob Kagan gave his version of the real-presidents-bring-the-hammer-down argument (Peter Feaver of Shadow Government was ahead of Bob by a month). These arguments are only partly aimed at achieving the desired outcome with Iran; to a great extent they're a continuation of the debate over toughness, resolve, and the proper use of American power. They also reveal conservatives' lingering naivete about both the practicalities and likely effect of a premature push for sanctions.

To review exactly where things stand, Iran, the US, and other key powers are negotiating over a plan to ship nearly three-quarters of Iran's declared supply of enriched Uranium to Russia to be turned into fuel rods that Iran can then use in civilian reactors. If carried out, this plan would significantly slow Iran's progress toward nuclear weapon capability and buy valuable time. According to the latest reports, Iran is balking at the deal, giving contrasting public and private messages, and potentially insisting on terms that would undercut the agreement.

What's to be done when confronted with such resistance? The conservatives say slap on some additional sanctions (Iran remains under a set of existing sanctions). But there's an internal tension in their position. The advocates of new sanctions are the same skeptics who have expressed such doubt that key powers like Russia -- whose support of course is needed to impose sanctions -- would really step up. My response to which is, yes, they won't go along until Iran is convincingly shown to be uncooperative. To press the matter before good faith has truly been strained is bound to be taken as a provocation, and maybe that would be gratifying to conservatives in order to validate their belief in the uselessness of diplomacy.

Instead, in the words of a senator from last year's campaign, really "we need patient diplomacy, and that requires two things: patience and diplomacy." In other words, it's important to avoid underestimating the amount of time to reach a solution, but it's also crucial to make fullest use of that time by negotiating at a pretty rapid tempo.

To be sure, the recent indications are decidedly mixed, and there's no reason to be cheerily hopeful. One (underplayed) thing that strikes me, though, is the relatively swift pace of these talks. It would be interesting to have an empirical comparison, but this strikes me as a period of fairly steady interaction. The real enemies of a successful solution are diplomatic delay and drift, and so far I'm not seeing that.

Of course patience can't be limitless, or we'll find ourselves with an (at least "virtual") nuclear-armed Iran. Foreign Policy today has this thorough analysis from Hillary Mann Leverett, highlighting some interesting and seemingly legitimate practical considerations from the Iranian side. I do take issue, though, on one key point. Leverett attributes most of the skepticism and suspicion toward Iran to a cultural stereotype of Iranians as fundamentally untrustworthy. As someone who agrees with President Obama when he insists that talks lead to meaningful action by Iran, rather than being strung along, I say stereotypes have nothing to do with it. This is the game of any country trying to fend off intense international pressure and preserve its options. And it doesn't lead anywhere good.


23 Comments

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Oddly enough, I'm in favor of weaker sanctions here. While it's true that free traders often overstate the benefits of economic engagement I think we've been isolated from Iran for too long almost like Cuba. We could use the oil, frankly and might as well buy it might provide a bridge for diplomacy.

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A new approach is needed for the Middle East.

Following the successes of the VietNam resurgance over the last ten years and the fact that it has become a friendly trading partner to the USA, it is past time for the USA to declare defeat in Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan, let them settle their own problems without outside interference, and in twenty (20) years or so, become friends and trading partners with them.

The USA has much to offer - other than guns, destruction, and the creation of poverty.
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From media reports, part of the stalling by Iran appears to reflect internal divisions between hardliners resisting any concessions (and perhaps committed to achieving a nuclear weapons capability) and more moderate elements willing to make accomodations and refrain from rushing the pace of progress toward nuclear arms if Iran can achieve important concessions in return.

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I doubt there is a single reporter in the US media who has even the slightest idea what is happening inside Iran at the national government level.

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Some of the conflict has been played out in public, including denunciations of Ahmadinejad for being too conciliatory.

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Iran's concerns about shipping all of its LEU out are legitimate. How does it know it will get any bacK? Shipping the stuff in batches does in fact make more sense, and you'd do the same in their position

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David,

Thank you for joining the fun, and for this measured post on the status of negotiations with Iran.

We've done our best (not without provocation) to let Iran know we had no desire to be friendly over the past 30 years. Then the previous administration put them on notice that we were their mortal enemy.

Like you, I'm struck, even a little surprised, by the pace of negotiations today. We don't know where it will lead, but I think the majority of the country understands, by now, that following the Neocon lead is a recipe for further disaster.

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I'm also a little shocked by how little we seem to be able to identify with Iran when it comes to what should really be easy negotiations.

Of COURSE they want nuclear weapons. Israel has them and can strike Iran if it wants. If you were Iran, what would you do?

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Of course I would. Any sane (or insane) neighbor of an aggressive nuclear-armed state backed by the world's foremost war-making superpower would.

That doesn't have to make it right, from our point of view, but it sure as hell makes it easy to understand.

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This is what the Iranians say:


We do not think a nuclear Iran would be stronger. The leader of the country [Ayatollah Ali Khamanei] has issued an edict saying having a nuclear weapon is not allowed – this is a government principle. We have come to the conclusion that the best security for Iran is to have the Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction. If we have weapons of mass destruction we are not going to use them – we cannot. We did not use chemical weapons against Iraq.

Secondly, we do not feel any real threat from our neighbours. Pakistan and the Persian Gulf, we have no particular problems with them, nor with Afghanistan. The only powerful country is Russia in the north, and no matter how many nuclear weapons we had we could not match Russia.

Israel, our next neighbour, we do not consider an entity by itself but as part of the US. Facing Israel means facing the US. We cannot match the US.
http://tinyurl.com/yan7kb8

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Thanks for the link, haas.

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Bob Kagan, the moron behind PNAC who pushed from the start for the Iraq War.
Peter Feaver, veteran of the disgraced Cheney administration.

Can we get a new foreign policy / punditry class? What will it take for these people to go away? How many times can they get it wrong?

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The disgrace is that these arrogant traitors are even tolerated in public.

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the primary mover to isolate and push america to attack iran is israel. what israel fears is 1) america making a strategic grand bargain with iran where iran becomes important than israel in helping american strategic interests in the middle east and 2) israel losing its bully status in the neighborhood which would prevent israel from realizing their greater israel dream.

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where iran becomes more important than israel in helping american strategic interests in the middle east

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The neocons haven't gone anywhere. If you want to know the skinny on the sanctions state of play (sorry) just watch the watchers @ the Weekly Standard et al. They know where the action is....

The itchiest trigger fingers are as always, in Congress. They're moving all this sanctions stuff to the forefront via the
"Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability and Divestment Act of 2009"; negotiations be damned:

Senator Bob Corker introduced an amendment yesterday calling for these sanctions to be imposed in coordination with Russia and China. The amendment was adopted, and in an interview with THE WEEKLY STANDARD this afternoon, Corker warned that if unilateral U.S. sanctions were imposed, the difference in Iran's imports would "easily be made up by Russia and China." The Obama administration can "exercise some testosterone doing it ourselves," but in Iran, Corker says, "the effect that we can have on refined petroleum is very small."
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Of course, targeting gasoline imports was a key plank of Obama's Iran policy during the campaign, and the measure itself seems to have broad bipartisan support in both houses of Congress. During the campaign Obama talked a lot about multilateral sanctions, but in the event he's been unable to secure the support of either Russia or China and looks to have little hope of doing so. Multilateral sanctions would be better than unilateral sanctions, but unilateral sanctions look likely to be the only option.
However, it wasn't the amendment that Corker introduced yesterday that had Iran-watchers talking, it was an amendment he had planned to introduce today but pulled at the last minute. This second amendment would have changed the 'shalls' in the bill to 'mays' -- i.e., the bill would no longer command President Obama to impose petroleum sanctions in 120 days barring some major diplomatic breakthrough (the president shall...), but would instead allow the president to impose those sanctions (the president may...).
Corker offered several rationales for this attempt to change the language. First off, he said, "when we pass this the president has to do it in 120 days...I question the timing." In other words, Corker worries that the language would limit the president's flexibility. However, it's not at all clear that's true -- the bill, like many other pieces of Iran legislation, contains a national security waiver that can be invoked at the president's discretion (it also has several other waivers, including a waiver that would allow the president to waive sanctions on individual companies based in allied countries where the government is cooperating with the United States on the Iran threat).
Corker also said that he "made the point that by using the word 'shall,' they were sending a message of no confidence in the president." Corker said that observation was met by silence from the Democrats in the room, but sources familiar with the history of this legislation note the language was crafted before Obama's election, and add that the use of the word 'shall' is standard legislative language.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2009/10/corker_amendment_shall_not_be.asp

The above article mentions other legislative sanctions efforts in addition to cutting off refined petroleum, "attempts to halt the flow of goods into Iran from Middle East ports" among them.

A blockade by any other name?


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Julian Borger @ The Guardian, October 29:

in the news section:

Iran's conditions push nuclear deal close to collapse

• Tehran wants to hand over uranium only in batches
• Move represents blow to US policy of engagement

& on his blog:

The fading of an Iranian mirage

An apparent diplomatic breakthrough over Iran's nuclear programme a month ago may have been no more than a fleeting triumph of hope over experience....

....No one I have talked to is at all optimistic. There is reticence, however, to declare the whole process dead, because the alternatives are so depressing....

Javier Solana, the EU foreign policy chief, and Angela Merkel are both due in Washington for talks with the Obama administration on Tuesday, when this will be the top item on the agenda. If no rabbits have been produced from hats before then, it will be grim session.

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...a premature push for sanctions.

Premature? Surely you jest. It hardly seems likely that another decade of hemming and hawing will do much good.

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You're absolutely right--it's due time for sanctions against Israel.

For starters, enforcing the Symington amendment.

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What isn't clear is whether the "negotiations" were designed to fail.

In any case, just in case, we are finishing up a massive joint military operation, "Juniper Cobra", with Israel that is built around protecting Israel from anything launched their way from Iran, Syria, Lebanon and/or Gaza:

17 Sixth Fleet warships, including AEGIS destroyers armed with Standard SM2 missiles and support vessels are participating in the drills, along with 1,000 personnel from the U.S. European Command and about the same number of Israeli military personnel. The Juniper Cobra biannual exercises began in 2001, as the missile defense cooperation between Israel and the U.S. expanded. U.S. Patriot air defense batteries were deployed to Israel for the first time in 1991, to help defend the country from Iraqi missile attacks. These exercises are improving the interoperability and coordination between the two forces and establish close working relations between Israeli and U.S. personnel involved with missile defense.

As Exercise Juniper Cobra unfolds, it is expected to deal with an escalating scenario, challenging the bilateral, integrated missile defense systems with multiple types of simultaneous threats fired from different ranges. These could include coordinated missile barrages launched from Iran and Syria, along with continuous attacks by medium and short range rockets fired by Hezbollah from Lebanon and Hamas from Gaza. Such air defense missions will be performed simultaneously with extensive air operations, characteristic of wartime activity. According to Brig. General Doron Gavish, commander of Israel's air defense forces, the exercise will focus on active defense (missile interceptors) and will not address other aspects of Israel's defense posture, such as pre-emptive - offensive or passive defense. During the first phase unfolding this week, the forces will practice field deployments of air defense units. The second week will focus on command-post exercises, as deployed units and command posts on land and at sea will deal with simulated threats . The third and phase will involve live firing of Israeli Patriot missiles.

Among the systems expected to be deployed and tested during the drills are the Arrow-2 System Improvement Program (ASIP), and its associated Advanced Green Pine radar, the U.S. TPY-2 radar already positioned and operating in southern Israel, Israel Air Force Patriot and Hawk missiles systems; Patriot PAC-3 missile-interceptors deployed by U.S. forces from their European based, elements of the new Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system and the naval-deployed AEGIS missile defense systems.

The U.S. forces are conducting regular exercises with international allied nations. Such exercises are planned more than a year in advance and require extensive coordination and preparation. However, joint exercises could also be used to mask strategic movements of forces. Just recently, the U.S. Central Command concluded the bi-annual Bright Star exercise in Egypt, rehearsing a massive parachute airdrop and equipment delivery. A similar exercise in 1990 preceded the coalition liberation of Kuwait, in response to the Iraqi invasion. According to some speculations, the U.S. could leave behind some of its advanced air defense systems deployed for the Juniper Cobra exercise. Such systems could include infrastructure equipment of even complete Patriot PAC-3 systems or elements of the THAAD, to be stored in the U.S. Army prepositioned equipment storages in Israel. However RADM Richardson stated that all U.S. units will be redeployed after the exercise.

In April this year, about 100 Europe-based personnel took part in a missile defense exercise that for the first time incorporated the U.S. owned X-Band TPY-2 radar system, which was deployed to Israel' AIr Force base at Nevatim in the Negev desert in October 2008. This radar is intended to give Israel early warning in the event of a missile launch from Iran. For the past year, a small unit of U.S. troops and Defense Department contractors have been managing the radar station's operations on site.

http://www.defense-update.com/analysis/juniper_cobra10_israel_211009.html

(The X-Band installation is the first and only official US base in Israel and access to it is tightly controlled and restricted to limited US personnel only. Nice to know that DOD contractors are involved at this level of "sensitivity")

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Another just in case report from the Happi Warriors @ DEBKAFILE:

Israeli urgently orders two stealth corvettes from Germany DEBKAfile Special Report October 27, 2009, 5:55 PM (GMT+02:00)


German MEKO A-100 Corvette

DEBKAfile's military sources report that the two corvettes are needed to meet the build-up of Iranian submarines and Syria warships in the Mediterranean Sea and defend coastal infrastructure facilities such as power stations and naval bases which Israel intelligence fears will be at risk in a regional war.

The order placed during Israeli chief of staff Lt. Gen. Gaby Ashkenazi's three-day visit to Berlin this week as guest of the German high command surprised the defense ministry. Germany is contributing 500 million euros toward the two Dolphin submarines already on order for the Israeli Navy. The new order is worth several million more. German sources report that the Israeli request has been referred to Chancellor Angela Merkel for her to decide.

The German corvette is a 2,200-tonner, 91 meters long and 13.4 meters wide. It carries a crew of 94, a medium-sized helicopter on its deck and 24 weapons systems - 16 sea-to-shore and 8 ship-to-ship launchers adapted to US-made missiles, as well as missile defenses and automatic cannons. It has a range of 7,400 kilometers and maximum speed of 30 knots. The corvette's great advantages for the Israeli navy are its formidable firepower and advanced radar-evading capabilities, making it extremely hard to spot by shore- or ship-based radar.
Before commissioning the warships from Germany, the Israeli Navy researched the market: After the US Lockheed Martin's product proved too pricey - $600 million apiece - purchasing agents opened negotiatons with the Hamburg shipbuilders Blohm and Voss. The initial plan was to have the order subcontracted to Haifa shipyards with Israel's aero industry and Navy installing the weapons systems and electronics. But in view of the spiraling tensions with Iran, Israel's high command decided to set about strengthening the country's marine defenses in the shortest time possible.

Also taken note of was the new clause inserted in the new Merkel government's coalition agreement: promising to phase out the Germany fleet operating off Lebanese shores as part of the UN peacekeeping mission: "Within the scope of the United Nations we will work towards a phased reduction of our German contribution to the Maritime Task Force of UNIFIL with the aim to terminate it."

Because the fleet to be phased out includes two corvettes, the possibility of transferring them directly to Israel instead of sending them back to home base in Germany is under consideration in view of the troublesome vibes besetting in the region.

http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=6343

How very gracious of Angela should this come to pass.

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The NeoCons see sanctions as simply an increment towards war.

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Is it to anyone's surprise if we come out and admit that it is us that wants to talk with the Iranians and not the other way around! But why is that?
Why is it that we need to speak with the Iranians and why they DO NOT want to speak with US?! Are we making the Iranian Nuclear program an issue to have an excuse to get them to talk with us?!
The Iranians are a signatory to the NPT, but that DOES NOT stipulates that any signatory to the NPT has to speak with the US afterward or to negotiate with us! So, why Iran has to negotiate with us? Other than the Military force that we posses, what else are we offering the Iranians to show some sort of interest in speaking with us?!

Iran has grate potential to become the next Japan. It has all the resources it needs, oil and energy, an educated population access to a market that we can’t reach. The Central Asia countries and the grater Middle East are just a start. The Iranians know that and wants us to pay attention to them and become a partner with them, but on their own terms not ours, is that to hard to way around. If we don’t show interest and force them into a corner, we are only going to be the loser at end. They need the Nuclear energy to speed up this goal to become industrialized and advance. That is only in our interest and they know it and if we are smart we should give them the leverage they need and become the partner they want. If we don’t, they will achieve it eventually, whether we like it or not.

If we relay want to stop the nuclear proliferation, we should start with the Zionists who have 200+ A-bombs for certain and have the IAEA to give the Dimona nuclear facilities a surprise inspection. We need to take care of what is for certain before going into another war for another imaginary WMD that is not there. So, lets have the Zionists to give up their 200+ A-bombs to set an example for the rest. After all they are the chosen people.

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