Who Didn't Get the Memo--Israel's President or its D.C. Ambassador?
Israel's parliament, the Knesset, reopened today after a long break for the summer and the Jewish holidays. In line with protocol, Israel's president opened the winter session and Shimon Peres had this to say on the linkage between reaching peace with the Palestinians and addressing the Iran issue:
In my opinion, if we move forwards with peace and make peace with the Palestinians, and if we start negotiations with Syria and Lebanon, we will remove the main pretext for the Iranian madness - against us and against the other residents of this region. (President Peres, October 12th in the Israeli Knesset).
Now Mr. Peres is in reality not exactly the dove he is portrayed to be (he authorized many of the settlements, he supported Israel's recent wars with Lebanon and Gaza, and he never really earned his own Nobel peace prize), but this was nonetheless an interesting acknowledgement of the linkage from Israel's head of state--and it seems to directly contradict the messaging coming from Israel's ambassador to Washington D.C., Michael Oren.
Here's Michael Oren in an interview on October 3rd for Newsweek:
Q: Do you believe that the Arab states would make their support of action against Iran contingent on progress in the peace process?A: No, there is no linkage whatsoever. The Arab states understand that the peace process is going to take a while, and we don't have a while with Iran. The peace clock and the Iranian nuclear clock are running at completely different speeds.
Oren was simply, and spiritedly, sticking to a lame PR line that has now been exposed as rubbish by none other than Israels' own president. On entering office six months ago, Prime Minister Netanyahu tried a similar trick, arguing that Iran would have to be dealt with first and that the Palestinian issue could be placed on the backburner. But President Obama wasn't buying any of that, insisting that both issues be addressed in parallel, and much to the chagrin of the Likud hawks, making Israeli-Palestinian peace a priority--something he repeated when responding to being awarded the Nobel peace prize last Friday.
The linkage, though aggressively denied by occupation apologists, is all too real (and credit to President Peres for acknowledging that). Here's how it works.
Iran's ability to spread influence and use leverage in the region is partly a product of the largesse it spreads around and of the allies it has through denominational allegiance or simple patronage. But crucially, it also depends on the narrative that Iran espouses--and the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict is central to that. Iran does not have an appealing story to tell the region when it comes to it system of governance based on an interpretation of Shia jurisprudence (Velayat-e Faqih) or when it comes to its internal freedoms and achievements.
Rather, the narrative which allows Iran to speak to the Muslim and notably Sunni street, above the heads of Arab leaders, can be paraphrased as follows:
Only we, Iran, are standing up to the Israelis and the Americans in defense of our downtrodden Palestinian brothers and sisters; you, the Arab leadership who are close to America, host American troops, visit Washington and do Washington's bidding, and are even openly or sometimes secretly in contact with the Israelis--all these friendships have done nothing to help the Palestinians or address their grievance; our version of resistance is therefore honorable when compared to your shameful collusion.
It may be grating to the ear and make us feel uncomfortable, but that is a message that resonates. And that is what President Peres seemed to understand in suggesting that peace with the Palestinians would, in his words, "remove the main pretext for the Iranian madness."
Ending the occupation and delivering peace would fundamentally undermine Iran's narrative and its leverage.
Realizing a comprehensive peace can be done as part of a process of U.S. dialogue with Iran in which these issues are also raised, or it can be done in parallel to an engagement with Iran (it should not be done as part of a blunt, unsophisticated frontal assault on Iran, as was tried at Annapolis during the Bush presidency).
However, it appears that the neoconservatives in this country and their Likud friends in Israel, who expend so much time and energy in refuting this linkage, just forgot to cc Israel's president on the talking points memo.





















Whether this latest in a long series of diplomatic dance steps from Israel, the Palestinians, Obama Admin, and Tehran actually leads anywhere, other than around in circles, remains to be seen. The analysis here is very common sensical but maniacal common-sense-defying hypocrites have long been powerful elements throughout the Mideast, including Israel, Iran, and the Palestinian territories. Obama is neither a maniac nor a hypocrite and will no doubt continue to try to earn the Nobel prize he has now received, but the constraints upon him are considerable, as are demands for progress on other issues.
October 12, 2009 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
You say, "maniacal common-sense-defying hypocrites..."
Why is it defying common sense? Bibi wants the West Bank. And he knows he's going to get it. Haven't you watched how the IDF's level of violence and violation of every norm of decency has drawn less and less of a reaction from the so-called "civilized" nations since 2006? Do you really think the US would do anything if he ethnically cleansed the West Bank?
Evidence? (We just sh*t-cannned a report about war crimes because Israel asked us to. What is Goldstone going to do: write another report about "really bad" war crimes that the USG would take seriousely?
And the Irans are adopting a foreign cause that increases their influence. Pretty smart. Kinda like us being outraged by the Iranian election but not so much about the vote thieving in Afghanistan or the coup in Honduras.
All these players are acting very rationally, albeit monstrously.
October 12, 2009 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
predictable good cop, bad cop routine. here peres is playing the good cop. lieberman and netanyahu play the bad cop.
October 12, 2009 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, "dumb cop, dumber cop, and dumbest cop" routine.
October 12, 2009 6:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I do not believe for a minute 'the main pretext for the Iranian madness' is the failure of Israel to make peace with the Palestinians.
Iran does not need any fictitious reason when she has a genuine cause for alarm in the shape of the undeclared and uninspected secret nuclear arsenal in the Israeli Negev estimated by the US to contain up to 400 nuclear warheads.
That fact, astonishingly, makes tiny Israel the dominant power in the region over not only Iran but also Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon. A country the size of Wales, controlling the whole Middle East region including the Gulf.
Clearly the status quo is untenable. If the world wants Iran not to have nuclear weapons then Israel must disarm and dismantle its nuclear weapons store.
The target must be a nuclear weapons free Middle East and international pressure must be applied to achieve this, urgently.
WE cannot wait for a nuclear war that will spread to Europe, and around the world.
October 12, 2009 6:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
The West doesn't like resource countries having the ability to resist gunboat diplomacy. "Chicago school" economics is always imposed at the end of a bayonet.
How do you say "Pinochet" in Farsi?
October 12, 2009 6:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
"The target must be a nuclear weapons free Middle East and international pressure must be applied to achieve this, urgently."
The target should probably be a nuclear weapons free world.. not only middle east. The US has a few of its own nukes it could get rid of.
"If the world wants Iran not to have nuclear weapons then Israel must disarm and dismantle its nuclear weapons store."
Ya sure, becuase Israel is just loved by the whole world and should feel secure to let go of its nukes. Israel will dismantle its nukes when the US dismantles its own and when there is real world peace. Neither is likley to ever happen.
"WE cannot wait for a nuclear war that will spread to Europe, and around the world"
What are you willing to do if diplomatic solutions dont work and Israel mantains its nukes while Iran builds its own?
October 13, 2009 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Doesn't Israel have more friends than Iran? So by your logic, doesn't that support Iran needing weapons because the world is hostile?
(Sound of small brain trying to process non-hasbara thought.....)
October 13, 2009 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why do you feel a need to always be an ass? whats the point of attacking me and telling me i have a small brain?
to the point - personally I dont care if Iran gets nukes (of course i prefer they dont but wont go to war for it). At this point it doesnt scare me anymore than Pakistan, Russia, China, US, North Korea, Britain, Israel or anyone else having them. So far the only country to ever use a nuke is the US - and i wouldnt be suprised if its the US who decides to use them again before anyone else.
Therefore, i said the goal should be to remove nukes altogether - not only in the ME but everywhere, and the US can start. As long as there are other nukes out there Israel wont remove there own, unless of course as i said there will be world peace.
October 14, 2009 5:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oren's comment "The Arab states understand that the peace process is going to take a while, and we don't have a while with Iran." made me gag. Isn't 42 years a while enough? Come to think of it, maybe Obama should tell Oren we'll deal with Iran in 41 years - that's a faster clock than Israel's peace efforts.
Israel's problem in honestly dealing with Palestinians peace efforts is they NEVER put on the table an offer that is fair to both sides (the only kind of deal that has perpetuity). It's always - what is the least I can give and get away with. Israel holds all the cards and they are the ones who are going to have to set the ante.
October 12, 2009 8:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
the USA is part of the problem in resolving the I-P conflict. on the one hand you have israel which wants the kind of peace that includes all the land and a few token arabs. on the other hand you have the USA trying to impose it's own fantasy solution which is to have another puppet arab regime in the west bank. the majority of the onus on bringing about peace in that region rests with the USA and israel as the majority of the power rests with them. hamas and fatah are bit players in the drama.
October 12, 2009 9:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
One state is the only solution.
Some Jewish people will leave if they can't have their Jewish-only state, but many will remain and help figure out how to make it work like the Afrikaners in South Africa did once that country finally became a true democracy.
October 13, 2009 12:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
If there were some way to completely de-link my country's foreign policy from that of Israel, two great things could happen: first, there would be, for the first time, a real chance for a peaceful resolution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and second, I wouldn't have to care what these assholes from Tel Aviv have to say about anything.
The only thing which is clear to me is that our servile attachment to the zionist cause is generating a lot of unnecessary hatred for us in the very, very much larger, arab world.
The Israelis have made it plainly clear that they will not be satisfied until they have driven all the sand-niggers out of their land. Why should we allign ourselves with such a reprehensible goal ?
October 13, 2009 3:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Most of what Levy has to say is right. But the idea, at the end, that peace can come through negotiations with the Iranians seems at odds with what Levy has said in the preceeding paragraphs.
If the Palestinians' plight is a pretext for the Iranians to gain support in the Arab street, then the last thing Iran wants is a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians.
Levy is right that Iran is weakened by the removal of the Palestinian/Israeli conflict, but that is precisely why they are not the ones to go to in order to remove that conflict.
Peace with the Palestinians will have to come from dealing with the Palestinians. That means negotiating with Hamas, not with the Iranians. (We have other things to talk to the Iranians about, but it is silly to look for other people to represent the Palestinians.
October 13, 2009 9:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
For the record, the Israeli position on Iran and the Palestinians:
"The new Israeli government will not move ahead on the core issues of peace talks with the Palestinians until it sees progress in U.S. efforts to stop Iran's suspected pursuit of a nuclear weapon and limit Tehran's rising influence in the region, according to top government officials familiar with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's developing policy on the issue."
(snip)
"Netanyahu's national security adviser, Uzi Arad, has publicly urged the United States to take stronger action against the Islamic state and has equated diplomatic engagement with Iran to 'appeasement'."
(snip)
"Netanyahu's approach "completely recalibrates expectations and understandings about where we really are," said Dan Diker, a senior foreign policy analyst at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, a think tank that is close to the Netanyahu administration. 'We can only address the region in the context of an ascendant Iran that is close to nuclear weapons and is destabilizing nearly every country in the Middle East'."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/21/AR2009042103998_pf.html
October 13, 2009 10:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
And tomorrow, it will be because of Saudi Arabia...
Then Egypt.....
Then Syria....
Then the Emirates....
There will never be a time that Israel can move forward.
Prediction: Israel will decide it is secure when it has completely colonized the West Bank. And not before.
Notice the Hashemites have been getting nervous recently? All they got for the "peace deal" with Israel was (1) a small amount of American aid; (2) the total disdain of the Arab world; and (3) more than 3 million potential new subjects after Israel drives the Palestinians east of the Jordan River (stream, actually.)
Second prediction: The day after the ethnic cleansing American politicians will show concern for the Palestinians and blame Jordan for not immediately giving them citizenship.
October 13, 2009 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Peres speaks the truth about the Israeli government's game plan
There needn't be any "formal" linkage.
October 13, 2009 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama needs to get health care reform delivered signed and sealed
Then he needs to kick some serious ass
October 13, 2009 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Did Rahm give him permission to do that?
October 13, 2009 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink