I have no reason to doubt that MJ has more inside knowledge about the goings on in Washington than I do. But think of it, he is saying that if AIPAC wants Congress to give the green light for an attack by Israel on Iran, it will most likely happen. Then he says “.....we could have a third Middle East war in our hand, with the entire Muslim world arrayed against us. Just what we need!" That's the understatement of the century.

You mean to tell me that these spineless so-called congressmen and so-called senators would rather appease AIPAC than avert a catastrophe in the Middle east and beyond? You need to let that sink in because, if true, it is a profound statement about who is "governing" us, if that's the word.

Great post M.J. The thing is, a conflict with Iran could be viewed by Obama and his aides as a great distraction and rallying point in the wake of a crappy health care bill.

His approval rating is already tanking, and it could go down to 40% if/when some shit bill is thrown in our face.

And who doesn't want to be a war president?

Hopefully he stands strong, and no convincing false flag operations are unleashed and blamed on Iran. I don't think he'd have the guts to point the finger at American Intelligence, or foreigners working for Blackwater.

I doubt he'd point the finger at Mossad if evidence pointed to them. And he wouldn't want to look weak when Americans were blasted with 24/7 coverage of the "Iranian Attack," and the public supported retaliation.

I get the feeling Presidents really can be bullied into war, or at least tolerating wars sparked by close allies with strong lobbies.

AIPAC may indeed be pushing for sanctions against Iran (and maybe even war), but I'm just not seeing a lot of momentum in congress for confrontation with Iran. With war mongers Bush and Cheney out of the White House, the Republicans in congress weakened, and other more pressing issues (like health care) taking priority, I find it hard to believe that the drive to punish Iran will gain any traction. In fact, after the recent elections in that country, there's some sympathy in the US for the Iranian populace, and that goodwill might make it harder for anyone to suggest anything like sanctions or bombing that would put the Iranian people under even greater stress.

It occurs to me that if AIPAC, (aka the American Zionist Committee for Public Affairs), were to move its offices into the White House, it would obviate any ambiguity as to who is running America and could reduce AIPAC’s overheads, thereby leaving it more funds available for one-page press ads calculated to influence public opinion.

It’s called ‘lobbying’. It’s completely legitimate, only not particularly democratic in that it seeks to influence legislation on behalf of a small special interest group which is not necessarily in the national interest or indeed in anybody’s interest other than that of itself and its members. That, unfortunately, is American democracy – AIPAC style.

Of course, if the rest of the 300 million people in the U.S ensured that their voices were heard and their interests served, things could be dramatically different. Instead of billions of dollars going to Israel every year, and to Egypt on behalf of Israel, that lost revenue could benefit millions of ordinary Americans in need of financial help during these hard economic times.

But it needs those 300 million Americans to make their voices heard. Only then will Special Interest Group lobbying on behalf of foreign states, cease to have any influence in the House or the Senate. That was, and is, 20th century American politics. It’s now the 21st century and it’s time for a radical re-think on how the US legislature serves the electorate.

Ok, MJ, is this just a hypothetical post, or do you have information? Are you expecting something?

Cordesman and a co-author released a study in March about an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities that showed clearly (though Cordesman tried to bury it somewhat) that it could not be done without US selective blindness to the use of Iraqi airspace on the way in and the active assistance of US air-refueling capability on the way out and probably on the way in. Or the use of air bases in Iraq for that refueling.

Israel does not have air refueling capability on it's own to pull this off, by a factor of 50%. attempts to argue that alternate routes across Turkey or over Saudi Arabia do not hold up to scrutiny both on range and opportunities to stage refueling planes. Alternative scenarios based on submarine launched attacks or drones refueling drones so as to go around Saudi Arabia via the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf similarly fall apart. Without direct US complicity a Israeli strike on Iran is a logistical impossibility. An inconvenient fact but clear from Cordesman's study. I am working from my phone and not able to supply a link but a search on 'cordesman Israel Iran nuclear' should pull it up.

AIPAC and the Neo-cons are pulling a huge bluff designed to get the US to provide the necessary cover and direct logistic support needed to pull this off under the line that they can just do this without us. They can't. Israel has the capacity to kick the crap out of everyone in the Arab world but as long as the US is in control of Iraqi airspace they can do nothing against Iran without our go ahead. Consult a map and Cordesman's study.

MJ

Bottom line. We better start paying attention.

Yes and thanks for your efforts in this regard. Your "turf" is where lots of the action takes place.....

Bottom line is - nobody is paying attention.

Israel's massive nuclear arsenal is not sitting there for no reason. It will be used against Iran for the simple reason that Iran is considered by the Israelis as an existentialist threat.

The US needs to fully recognize that the Israeli state cares not one iota what the world or the UN thinks. Arrogance will drive the Likud government to mount an attack because they believe it will be just another commando raid on Entebbe, only a little more difficult.

Israel has been built-up by America, over the past decades of AIPAC influence, to be the estimated fourth or fifth most powerful nuclear entity in the world. We need to ask ourselves the reason and logic for this extraordinary situation given that Israel is, in fact, of no strategic importance whatsoever nor does it have any natural resources.

Israel's nuclear option is primed and ready for use and we can only now wait, impotently, to see what is in store for us in the months to come. We are all just pawns in a situation that has become way beyond our control.