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There again . . .

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Thanks to the army of commenters. I've tried to read all the comments. I appreciate the bracing criticism of Marquis SeaToShiningSea and Economides as well as what I take to be the supportive comments from artappraiser and buck. Now I will take the opportunity, as Dan Quayle used to say, to stand by all my misstatements.

Let me stipulate at the outset that I favor more public involvement in health care, up to and including a single-payer system. Contrary to kgb999, I don't want to suggest market-based rationing is in any way superior to some kind of public make-over. In any system public or private there is some kind of rationing. The question will be, what kind? My fear is that rationing in a system reformed by Democrats will screen out treatments that can prolong life that is worth extending, from the standpoint of the patients themselves. It goes without saying that a system reformed by Republicans will suck, but they are not the ones presently at the wheel.

hoppycalif notes that not every life is worth prolonging. Of course I agree, except in my own case. I look forward to a system where the individual's choice is not constrained by cost. Aggregate cost should be a social, democratic decision. Should the individual be able to choose any treatment that might work? Yes, insofar as we as a society decide to insure ourselves to provide for this option. In this context, contary to Economides, it is NOT "somebody else's money." If you kicked in for the social insurance, it would be your money.

I was not trying to make a moral appeal, contrary to readytoblowagasket. I wanted to present it as a question of perception; how you look at a question in a state of repose, rather than under the gun. Some might say that in the actual event you will not think clearly. Fear of death will bias your decision. Well, making a decision in the sunny day of perfect health is biased too, just the other way. How often have you wished you took some kind of precautionary measure against an uncertain, unpleasant event, once such an event came to pass and it was too late for such precautions? Our lack of foresight is undisputed. I probably need a new smoke alarm, but I don't bother. Or course I'd regret it if the house burns down. Who is to say there has been a rational, collective judgement to avoid so-called diseconomical care? All we really know is we're spending a ton, compared to other countries, and not getting our money's worth.

A number of comments had the perspective of having 'been there' to experience an unhappy ending. Hence they reflect a resignation that is real in light of that experience, after the fact. But there can also be hope. People need to make their own decisions. If you'd just spent a year with 100 good days and 265 lousy ones, is that good enough, or is it time to call it quits? artappraiser raises this point. Ideally that would be up to you, nobody else. In principle there is no reason why we as a society should not insure for low-probability options. Maybe you've been there and are discouraged. But maybe you will get there and choose to fight. It could prove to be the right choice.

Am I paranoid? Fred M. and BobFred2 say no reform would deny a treatment. Maybe it's true, but I very much doubt it. A basic objective of reform, for me as for others, is to reduce the growth of costs. buck talks about this. As I said in my post, you can reduce quantities or prices or both. I am wary of quantity reduction, what Fred calls "prioritization," by whatever means. With enough nudging, there will be some patients moved to abstain from treatment, some providers discouraged from raising it as an option. I would work from the side of squeezing prices.

Economides makes the interesting point that reduced prices would spur the provision of increased services. I don't doubt it. But couldn't the converse be true as well? I suppose a public system will have controls of some sort on both sides. My view is beware an imbalance on the side of reduced services, especially under the rubric of canards of "last year of life" and "heroic measures" and "we (sic) can't afford more (socialized) health care." Economides describes how the best care is provided, but he or she doesn't say what makes that possible.

Marquis de SeaToShiningSea says I have no experience with crappy private health insurance. My experience is this: if you get really sick, you will burn through your out-of-pocket maximum. If you're not poor, that's not so bad. If you stay sick, you will get suggestions that maybe you should think of hanging it up, make your way to the nearest Hospice. If you are not sick enough for hospital (require "acute care"), but too sick for home, you are in the land of give the nursing home or home nursing providers all your money, and give all your time to the afflicted. Is that crappy enough? I suppose it could be worse. We've gotten pretty much any treatment we wanted, as much as we wanted, and gosh darn it we're still here, keeping the meter running, having some good days and some bad ones.

The Marquis seems to think I'm defending private insurance. No, I'm trying to avert bad public insurance. Single-payer is not on the table. Neither, Goshen, is paying doctors salaries. Instead we're getting some kind of convoluted reincarnation of HillaryCare. Private insurance sucks, end of story. Will HillaryCare ObamaCare be better? We don't know yet. Marquis provides a little list of low-hanging fruit in health care savings, one that I agree with. Now, is this the fruit harvested under the pending reform? Tell me it is, and I'll feel better. More evidence about treatment efficacy would be swell, but that's one thing. The other is, how is this information going to be used.

I have to object to the Marquis' momentary attack of Econ 101, the nostrum about scarce resources. Sure, a dollar spent on health care is a dollar not available for something else. Thing is, there are more dollars every year, and there will be more health care every year under any imaginable circumstance. The question is how much more, before we say not a dollar more.

I haven't been there. I am there now. Again, let's focus on a broadened perception, on a reasonable decision. Naturally the situation pushes emotions to the surface, but let's just try thinking. If my wife dies, the big bucks expended over the past year will be chalked into the "spent in the last year of life" column. She was in ICU on a breathing machine, heavily sedated, three weeks ago. We were asked (me, really) if we wanted this; the real question was, are you ready to check out? We said hell no, plug that sucker in. Today she's eating roast beef and watching the cooking shows. A little Dilaudid helps you through the day, and it's not a bad day.

The U.S. is a rich country. We can afford desperate measures that sometimes work. We can decide collectively to insure for them at some level. I would put the level high. You may not think you want them, but if you are there, shielded by insurance from the influence of cost, you may think differently. Will you be wrong?


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Rotwang,

I thought your position on all this was pretty clear the firts time but it's good to see you reiterating it.

One thing you said today was:

"Single-payer is not on the table. Neither, Goshen, is paying doctors salaries. Instead we're getting some kind of convoluted reincarnation of HillaryCare. Private insurance sucks, end of story."

True enough and IMHO it demonstrates quite clearly why taking single payer off the table was the dumbest move Obama and the Democrats could have made!

The convoluted piece of crap they are now working in in DC will, as likely as not, not be worth having and will serve as the prime example in the future (if it even passes) for the right to use to argue why we don't want government involved in healthcare. this is made possible because we conceded in advance to accepting a convoluted, weak and ineffective "reform" not of healthcare but of the current health insurance industry.

Settling for keeping what currently exists (and sucks) in tact and adding a crappy public insurance plan is foolish. It would be better to start all over and make a forceful push for some form of single payer.

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Fred M. and BobFred2 say no reform would deny a treatment. Maybe it's true, but I very much doubt it.

Rotwang - I agreed with much of your previous argument and well as this one, including your overview of the rationing concept. On the specific point, however, I would say that although I have not scrutinized every law passed in every other nation that provides better health care than we do to more people, and at lower cost, I'm unaware of any that prohibit the use of treatments except for those known to be unsafe. I was trying to distinguish between denial of treatments and denial of payment for them by the government or insurers. Denial of payment in our current health care system is an abomination that reform would partially correct, but no system has the resources that would allow it to pay for everything for everyone and in every circumstance.

I believe that many members of the public confuse the two, and have succumbed to misinformation claiming that proposed legislation would "kill granny" by denying her lifesaving care. Prioriitzing limited resources is one thing, and a necessary activity, but dishonesty on the part of reform opponents, designed to perpetuate current abuses, is something we can do without. If the public can be induced to understand the difference, and then judge the principles underlying how a society might prioritize, I will be content.

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I agree that this point is absolutely crucial to the public's understanding of what is going on here. It is much easier to scare people than to ask them to be mature and adult about what we really face.

I would only add the fact that there is a very reasonable expectation that we can under the current budget limit, or even a 25% smaller one, provide better care to everyone.

The debate sadly has been narrowed to more vs less which is exactly how the opponents of reform want to frame it. No one wants less, right? The correct frame is better or worse. We are doing poorly and we are only going to get worse. Reform is about making things better for everyone.

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Three points:

One,I think most of us agree with is that the autonomy should be the patient's whether it is life or death, elective surgery, or an allergy medication. There is an entire school of what is called "shared decision making" or "informed patient choice" as opposed to simply informed consent. I respect that you personally have one set of values and circumstances that leads you to a particular choice. Overall, experience shows that the values of patients tend to diverge somewhat from their physicians. Physicians are willing to take more risks and risk more side effects than patients. When given the informed choice, patients tend to choose less invasive and less expensive interventions than their physicians might want to do. If insurance company have the incentive to under-treat, physicians have an incentive to over-treat. I think neither one is healthy. We should be looking for the best possible outcome in accordance with a patient's wishes.

Two, the central tension here is how in a system of shared risk, either through a private insurance pool or a public one, do we decide how much we are willing to spend collectively so that we protect the prerogatives of any individual. When I said you are spending other people's money, I meant simply that in every insurance scheme the healthy subsidize the sick and in a tax payer funded system, the rich tend to subsidize the poor. If you were to self-insure against "catostrophic costs" no doubt it would be extremely expensive. But at least you could then decide what you are willing to pay for the peace of mind. In a system of shared risk, your expenses affect mine. It becomes a collective decision. There is no way around that. It doesn't mean that we should let the accountant and budget examiners make medical decisions, but on a systemic level, whether our system of risk sharing is sustainable is a collective one.

Three, and most important, I have argued that the reality of cutting cost--or deciding that we have reached the limit of our collective budget--does not have to mean limiting care as a result. In fact just the opposite is true. We can have better care for everyone, at less cost. To understand why this is possible you have to understand how much we currently over-utilize unnecessary services and (just as important) under-utilize effective ones. Rotwang asks how do we get there: The short answer is to promote integrated, coordinated care, develop and use evidence of what works best and what does not (and use that as the baseline for medical decisions, not as the accounting rule) and develop payment systems which have incentives to provide the best quality care. You can read lots and lots about how Mayo Clinic and Intermountain Health operate to name just two. It's not magic. Also read the white paper from the Dartmouth Atlas. These guys are arguing for great advances in the improvement of care delivery, not using some stupid budget rules to deny the care peple want or need. These guys have been to the mountain top, and the view is, to use the oh so nineties phrase, a paradigm shift.

Anyway thanks for the thoughtful discussion.

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Thanks for this comment (& for the others).

I want to take exception to one bit -- that the healthy subsidize the sick. Before you know who is going to be sick and who isn't, in a fair payment system (however you want to define fair), nobody is subsidizing anyone. The exception would be those who could take steps to improve their health and reduce their costs (exercising, not overeating, etc.). The voluntarily unhealthy (e.g., yours truly) are subsidized. You are not subsidized by virtue of catching some awful disease you could not avoid and then availing yourself of the benefits of risk pooling. Somebody who failed to contribute to the system or to obtain insurance (assuming it was available and not prohibitively costly) and then obtains treatment is being subsidized, insofar as he fails to pay for what he gets.

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Under proposed legislation, young, healthy adults would pay premiums similar to those with a current or past history of illness. On an actuarial basis, the healthy individuals would end up paying, on average, more than the cost of future care they receive, while the ill would end up paying less in premiums than the care they receive. That's practical, fair, and humane, but it does involve one group subsidizing another. A problem now, among many others, is that healthy young adults who don't buy insurance drive up the cost for everyone else, because the insurers now insure a pool with a higher average risk. The importance in proposed reform bills of mandated insurance (with tax penalties for non-participation) lies in its ability to compel the healthy to share risk with those who are less fortunate.

Some opponents vehemently impose this principle, asking "why should I have to pay for you?" Most Americans, I hope, would find it reasonable to think that if someone is sick, we might want to avoid adding to the burden of illness a burden of financially devastating medical costs.

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I agree that all members of the pool buy the same value of insurance. And I could just have easily written the lucky subsidize the unlucky. In any case, despite the loaded term I wasn't implying that being subsidized is makes you morally less worthy of reaping the subsidy. That's the nature of insurance and I am no Republican.

In a pure public system funded by tax revenue the subsidies may be more explicit if contributions to the systems are in part based on income or wages.

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I am happy to see that you now endorse health care reform with some sort of public plan and you acknowledge the shortcomings of private insurance. I do not acknowledge misunderstanding your first post, instead I took the most apparent interpretation. I, too, would hate to see a public plan (or any plan, unfortunately, that includes many private or employer based insurance plans already extant) that interferes very much in the autonomy of the patient. That is, after all, the shortcoming of ceding decision making to a collective body of any sort, is it not?

I do not acknowledge an error in "Econ 101." Yes, we will have more in the future than we have now. But the public's desire for goods paid with someone else's dime knows no special limit. I do not say this with disrespect. Paying attention to this matter is what I do for work and what I have done for work for 25 years.

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My dear Marquis, you've been reading me a while and should know I'm the Left of the Left. How could you imagine me not supporting movement towards collective provision?

Actually I have some involvement with "this matter" myself. I reiterate that the truism that resources are scarce offers little guidance as to how to organize provision.

To Fred, if the young and health abstain from insurance, eventually they will get to the point where they can't afford insurance and will need 'subsidy' from the younger and healthier. So in that sense there is no subsidy. Sooner or later everybody is uninsurable in the market. So there is no subsidy in a universal system, with the behavioral exception I noted.

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That's not true, Rotwang. Under the proposed legislation, a healthy 22 year-old would pay the same premium as a 45-year old diabetic. However, during the remaining lifetime of those two individuals, the annual medical costs for the 22-year old will be less than the premium payments, while the annual medical costs for the diabetic will be more than the premium payments. One will be subsidizing the other, averaged over all individuals in each category.

I believe it's appropriate, for reasons I stated above, and most other civilized nations agree.

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Fred, the current 45 year old is in one of the following conditions:
(1) Already has insurance, just needs to be able to keep it.
(2) Had insurance, lost it, cannot get it back, either (a) recently lost it, or (b) lost it some time ago. In either case, may well be paying substantial health costs out of pocket (that would be the "cannot get it back" part).
(3) Never had a realistic offer of insurance and was always substantially low income.
(4) Thought he/she would be better off putting the cost of insurance off, (possibly thinking that it would be a subsidy for mom/pop or grandma/pop who possibly was at some point economically better off).
(5) Never gave a thought to insurance.

This list seems exhaustive to me, but perhaps you could add something to it.

Now, you are essentially saying the 22 year old shouldn't have to go on equal footing with the 45 year old because the 45 year old is in status (4) or (5). If they are (1) or (2) then they have contributed a lifetime actuarial share just as the 22 year old can be expected to contribute. If they are status (3) they will eventually fall into Medicaid, unless they die of what's ailing them first.

So, let's be frank. There will, in fact, be a few folks who catch a break. The cost will be passed along to the rest of us, not just to the 22 year olds, but to everyone who directly or indirectly subsidizes any public program that is created. Life is, as you may have heard, unfair. Every public policy has these little glitches at start up. It is no big deal. If you do a little checking, you will find that most uninsured folks at age 45 (except those at the bottom of the economic scale) have had insurance at some point. They may have foolishly changed jobs without thinking about the insurance consequences or they may be more or less culpable than that.

I am sure you can live with it.

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I'm pretty sure he said the fact that both pay the same price for insurance but one "collects" more payouts is not unfair. It is the nature of insurance. Both folks over their lifetime consume the same amount of insurance per year, the net cash flows, obviously will not be the same.

I think most people would rather pay the premium until a ripe old age and never have to file a claim.

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That's correct. What is unfair is life itself, which afflicts some individuals with illnesses they did nothing to deserve (not everything is attributable to bad habits). It would add unfairness onto unfairness to ask them to spend more money as well.

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There's so much fear of "rationing" in a public system. There's already rationing! Every time your health insurance decides not to cover something, it's rationing. Why don't people get that?

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Just one comment on the good days/bad days thing: although it's easy to dissect this one when you're in full control of your faculties, that's not the situation where the decision usually has to be made.

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