Bill Clinton's Magical Mystery Tour to North Korea
Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry might have brought Senatorial gravitas to the US-North Korea relationship and have opened connections for Pyongyang beyond the White House. Al Gore, if he had gone to help secure the release of journalists Laura Ling and Euna Lee from the hard labor camp where they have been incarcerated, would have diversified his public profile. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, had he gone, would have added to his somewhat legendary roster of successful engagements with global thugs to try and secure the release of innocent people from the trap of hard-edged international tensions.
But Bill Clinton, who is today in North Korea, ignored potential landmines and surprisingly took on the challenge of engaging North Korea to win the release of these journalists. For his efforts, Clinton will most likely reap significant political credits with Barack Obama and his team -- not just for pulling a Bill Richardson and getting the woman out of the hole they were in -- but for steadying a US-North Korea relationship that was in a fast downward spiral.
As former State Department official and Korea Society President Evans J.R. Revere told me today, sending Bill Clinton was a significant "High Risk, High Reward" strategy for both Barack Obama and Clinton himself. Although everyone goes to great pains to state that Clinton's trip was a private trip, everyone -- particularly North Korea premier Kim Jong Il -- knows that the trip had both Obama's support and Hillary Clinton's.
Revere, who has been engaged in some private diplomacy himself with the North Koreans about the two journalists, felt that Clinton had the most to lose from this trip among all of the other potential unofficial envoys -- and also the most to gain for American policy overall. The North Koreans could have embarrassed the former President and could have engaged in some unsavory behavior to continue to show how they wished to defy the international community's demands. But Kim Jong Il, pictured with a wide smile in photos next to the more solemn Clinton, rolled out the red carpet for the President and seemed extremely pleased with Clinton's outreach.
Evans Revere, who used to manage the North Korea portfolio at the State Department, has been working quietly over the past several weeks with the North Koreans from his Korea Society perch in New York to encourage them to resolve the journalist issue quickly. He reported to me that he had a number of "intense and useful, even positive,exchanges" -- the results of which he had shared with the administration. Revere protege David Straub -- who also used to be at the State Department -- is traveling with Bill Clinton. Center for American Progress President and former Clinton White House Chief of Staff John Podesta is also on the trip. Evans Revere was also in constant touch with one of the family members of one of the imprisoned journalists.
Given the spade work done by a number of players -- through formal and informal channels -- Bill Clinton has now secured pardons from Kim Jong Il for the two journalists who he has now met with -- but more importantly, Clinton has engaged directly with North Korea President Kim Jong Il and this may steady things in Northeast Asia for a bit.
As one observer told me today, engaging Kim directly matters and prevents the complex filters around him from distorting and derailing earnest efforts to get the relationship pointed in a more constructive direction. Former Japan Prime Minister Koizumi learned this through two direct meetings with Kim, and the Chinese and South Koreans also have learned that direct engagement with the North Korean leader produces radically different results than dealing with the bureaucratic minions around him.
Clinton may have just given North Korea a "face-saving way" back to negotiations in the Six Party Talks -- and North Korea may have found a valuable informal back channel to both President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton to partially sate its own yearning for direct bilateral talks with the United States that America can't endorse given other stakeholders in Northeast Asia committed to a six party process.
And by the way, John Bolton, political market indicator that he is, is on the verge of another apoplectic fit, which generally means that the Obama White House is on a good course.
-- Steve Clemons publishes the popular political blog, The Washington Note


















You are spot on. If John Bolton is going off the deep end, that's a good thing.
August 4, 2009 4:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some said Kim turned down an offer to meet with George Dubya, even though the very unsought after ex-President sweetened the deal by offering to bring along his gun, and let Kim handle it. You know the one he got from Saddam. Bush is still trying to rack up a confirmed American he can say he saved, after 8 years of filling the graveyards with victims of his misleadership.
August 4, 2009 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Better late than never.
President Clinton was working very hard to arrange a summit before he left office, but the GOPers "impeachment" denied him the opportunity to make the trip.
The Clinton White House then explained how close they were to a break through to Dubious & Co, only to be told that the new (mal)administration wasn't interested in reducing tensions at all.
Hence, North Korea's nuclear weapons tests.
August 4, 2009 9:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ain't it great when the Big Dog makes good?
August 4, 2009 10:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ain't it great when the Big Dog makes good?
You can say that again.
And Steve, thanks for the laugh about Bolton.
August 5, 2009 10:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
I sent this link to TPM earlier this week, but it's not something that is being reported on much.
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2009/08/113_49466.html
W. was in South Korea over the last weekend prior to the Clinton trip speaking with President Lee and giving talks to industry leaders on the economic crisis, defense contractors (family business connections?), and high school students. Not many details seem to have emerged and I suspect that the meeting with Lee was simply Asian courtesy to his status. But with Bolton's stirring the pot, what kind of meddling was Dubya really up to there? Private defense contract interests? I'd call that arms dealing or maybe lobbying. And we all know what a good warmonger he is, especially when it comes to selling fear.
August 5, 2009 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Steve: You kicked a$$ on MSNBC the other night; You really explained this stuff so I could understand it...
August 5, 2009 9:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are you saying the Bill brought some kind of breakthrough or equilibrium to our relationship with North Korea?
The release of the two journalists strikes me as a dog and pony show orchestrated by the Dear Leader. No knock against Bill, it was nice of him to go, and if it got the job done fine.
But Dear Leader will do whatever the f**k he wants to, Bill or no Bill.
To expect anything other than continued sabre-rattling from Dear Leader strikes me as naive.
You probably know more than me, so I hope that you are correct when you wrote that "direct engagement with the North Korean leader [will] produce[] radically different results than dealing with the bureaucratic minions around him."
I find that hard to believe, especially because the minions around him no doubt cater to his ever whim, and wouldn't take a piss without his permission.
I hope you are right, although I never quite understand how you make "progress" with someone like him. What does he give up? His yearly missle launch? He is never going to give up his nukes.
August 6, 2009 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bill Clinton did a good deed in North Korea, but he's no John Ensign.
See:
http://notionscapital.wordpress.com/2009/08/21/john-ensign-man-of-integrity/
August 22, 2009 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink