John Bolton Opposed to Israel Nukes!
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Former US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton appeared Wednesday this week on The Daily Show for a third time and got a 'friendship bracelet' from Jon Stewart for doing so.
Bolton is a smart war-monger who is careful with words and couches his cheerleading for an Israeli strike against Tehran in lots of buffer material like calling his wanted Iran strike an "unattactive option".
Given his typical lawyerly shrewdness that I have come to expect and never underestimate, I was stunned when he abandoned his support of Israel's nuclear weapons stash.
At 6:58 into this eight minute long Daily Show clip, Bolton said that he is close to the anti-nukes liberals of the world because he wants "only one country to have nuclear weapons" -- the United States.
He definitely left every other nation of the list, including Israel.
Here is the exchange:
Jon Stewart: Best case scenario in your mind, really, heart of hearts, do you see a World War III? Because every scenario you write in your papers seems like it triggers massive confrontation on a global scale and at that point we are involved with World War III in a hot way....John Bolton: The purpose of statesmanship is to look into the future, look at the risks and opportunities and try and shape developments to get us into the optimal situation. Looking at all these very dangerous scenarios, what it should argue to us is the continuing importance of the strategic reality in the world that we have to try and deal with.
Every country that gets nuclear weapons is an additional threat to our friends around the world.
Jon Stewart: Who -- and this is your final question -- maybe this is an easier one. . .Who wouldn't you bomb?
John Bolton: There's not that much difference between me and the people who want a world where no government has nuclear weapons. There's not much difference. I only want one government to have nuclear weapons...
Jon Stewart: I know....Switzerland! Uh...hold on....
John Bolton: You're sitting in it...[the United States]
Given Bolton's typical precision, whether deployed bluntly or with a lighter touch, John Bolton not standing up for Israeli nuclear weapons might be considered "progress".
-- Steve Clemons
It's already too late for Bolton to change his mind. Israeli nuclear-armed submarines are even now awaiting instructions to strike.
Israel probably plans to send nuclear-armed, Dolphin class submarines through the Suez canal, skirting Yemen and Oman , up into the Straits of Hormuz in the Gulf, offshore from the UAE, there to fire warheads directly into Iran. These would have air-support from US supplied, missile loaded, Israeli F16 multi-strike aircraft
'The first subs of this class, equipped with sophisticated navigation and combat systems, were supplied to Israel by Germany in the 1990s, two of them as a gift. At Israel ’s request, besides the six 533 mm launching tubes, suitable for short-range cruising missiles, all the subs were outfitted with four additional 659 mm tubes for launching long-range nuclear cruising missiles: the Popeye Turbos, which can strike targets up to 1500 km away. These missiles are a spin-off from the US versions and were manufactured jointly by the Israeli firm Rafael and Lockheed-Martin in an airborne version.
In 2010 the three nuclear attack-submarines were joined by two others, again from Germany . They were built in the Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft AG shipyards at a cost of 1.27 billion dollars, one third of which was financed by the German government. The Jerusalem Post confirms that also the two new ones, whose type-code is U-212, were built according to “Israeli specifications”: they are faster (20 knots), have a wider range of action (4,500 km), and are more silent, allowing them to close in on objectives without being spotted.
According to military experts, one of the three Dolphins furnished by Germany patrols the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, the second is deployed in the Mediterranean , while the third is held in reserve. With the addition of two more, the number of those under sail, ready to launch a nuclear attack, has as much as doubled. And this is only part of Israel ’s nuclear might, estimated as between 200-400 warheads, equivalent to almost four thousand Hiroshima-type bombs, and whose vectors include over three-hundred US F-16 and F-15 fighter planes and about fifty Jericho II ballistic missiles on mobile launching ramps. These and other nuclear weapons are ready for launching around the clock.’
It is doubtful whether the United Arab Emirates will be happy that a damaging nuclear conflict will be brought to their doorsteps.
The danger to peace of disproportionate nuclear capability
Estimated worldwide nuclear stockpiles, 2009
Country: Total Warheads: Population
Russia:13,000 / 142,000,000
United States:9,400 / 307,000,000
*Israel (undeclared):100 - 400 max / 7,400,000
France:300 / 65,000,000
China:240 / 1,332,000,000
United Kingdom:185 / 62,000,000
India:60 / 1,167,000,000
Pakistan:60 / 167,000,000
North Korea:10 / 24,000,000
Dependent on the true number of undeclared nuclear warheads, Israel could be the 3rd most powerful nuclear state in the world if possessing the maximum estimated number of WMD. In that event she would be twice as powerful as the UK with a demographic just over only 1/10th the size of Britain’s.
Undeclared nuclear states (from Wikipedia)
Nuclear weapons and Israel
Israel is not a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and refuses to officially confirm or deny having a nuclear arsenal, or having developed nuclear weapons, or even having a nuclear weapons program. Israel has pledged not to be the first country to introduce nuclear weapons into the region, but is also pursuing a policy of strategic ambiguity with regard to their possession. In the late 1960s, Israeli Ambassador to the US Yitzhak Rabin informed the United States State Department, that its understanding of "introducing" such weapons meant that they would be tested and publicly declared, while merely possessing the weapons did not constitute "introducing" them. Although Israel claims that the Negev Nuclear Research Center near Dimona is a "research reactor", or, as was originally claimed, a "textile factory," no scientific reports based on work done there have ever been published. Extensive information about the program in Dimona was also disclosed by technician Mordechai Vanunu in 1986.
According to the Natural Resources Defense Council and the Federation of American Scientists, Israel possesses around 75–200 weapons. Imagery analysts can identify weapon bunkers, mobile missile launchers, and launch sites in satellite photographs. Israel may have tested a nuclear weapon along with South Africa in 1979, but this has never been confirmed (see Vela Incident).
On May 26, 2008, former US president Jimmy Carter stated that Israel has “150 or more nuclear warheads” at a press conference at the annual literary Hay festival in Wales.
GDR 073109
July 31, 2009 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for GD. Perhaps you could incorporate this into a blog so more people would see it.
I really did not have a foggy notion as to the actual numbers.
Thank you for this.
July 31, 2009 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
What is meaningful about the ration of warheads to population? Whoever has the most nukes has the advantage. What does the population of the country that launches the nukes have to do with it?
If anything a small country like Israel is at a disadvantage because the targets are concentrated in a smaller area, making them more vulnerable to a first strike.
July 31, 2009 10:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wouldn't it be a little tough for Israeli nuclear subs to go through the Suez Canal without bumping into something?
August 1, 2009 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is such a mix of half-truths as to defy deconstruction. I made a start last June with this post.
http://angrybear.blogspot.com/2009/06/trace-bombing-route-from-israel-to-iran.html & comments
But don't take my word for it, start with the recent study by Cordesman and Toukan
http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/090316_israelistrikeiran.pdf (large PDF 3.5MB)
Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Development Facilities
Israel's F-16's and F-15's do not have the range to fly to Iran and back without refueling twice and per Cordesman and Toukan this would overwhelm Israel's own air-refueling capacity. And on my reading would require the complicity of the U.S. to make it happen.
Plus there is a big difference between a nuclear-capable sub and a nuclear sub. The Dolphin Class are diesel-electric subs meaning they have a limited range they can sail submerged plus they would need periodic refueling.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dolphin_class_submarine (yes I know the weaknesses of Wiki as a source, on the other hand GDR doesn't source anything at all). Per this article two subs operate in the Med while one of them sailed to the Red Sea this June. I would like to see some sourcing as to the claim that one patrols the Persian Gulf, given the range and fueling limitations that would seem improbable at best.
I would also like to see the sourcing that the nuclear equipped Popeye actually has a range of 1500 km. This seems based on a report of a test launch off Sri Lanka in 2000 but given what we know kind of unlikely. http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/israel/popeye-t.htm
Wiki, which seems to be drawing on the same sources as GDR reports that the nuke equipped version of the Popeye Turbo has a range of 78 km (48 miles) which would put all important nuclear sites well out of range of a sub launched missile.
Even if the range problem was overcome the Popeye is guided either visually or by infrared meaning either you have planes flying somewhere in a line of sight or you have some way of identifying an infrared (heat) signal from a deeply buried facility across a mountain range from your missile platform.
So really despite all of the unsourced detail I don't believe a word of the overall claim that Israel could launch a large scale nuclear attack from diesel subs in the Persian Gulf. Even waving away all the technical difficulties each Dolphin only has four of the larger size torpedo tubes needed to fit a Popeye Turbo, And even these seem mostly designed to accomodate Swimmer Delivery Vehicles. It seems all a big fat bluff, a couple of diesel subs does not a strategic capability make.
August 2, 2009 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would add that the March 2009 Cordesman/Toukan study discusses the requirements for Israel to launch an attack by air or by ballistic missile with all kinds of supporting technical detail (there is a lot of information about both Israeli and Iranian capabilities) but unless I missed something didn't even bother to discuss the sub launch alternative. In my opinion for good reason.
August 2, 2009 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
This somewhat angry response sounds suspiciously like an hasbara speak diversion. The German modified Dolphin subs are already in the Arabian Sea and certainly capable of attacking Iran with nuclear warheads. That is their prime purpose.
August 2, 2009 8:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bolton was just being lawyerly anyway. He'd never give up Israeli nukes.
July 31, 2009 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is ironic that the son of a fireman grew up to be such a 'fire starter'. Daddy issues?
"Firestarter" musisc video - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmin5WkOuPw
July 31, 2009 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I recommend reading Seymour Hersh, "The Samson Option" for a history of Israel's development of nuclear weapons. I don't recall when it was written - late '80s? early '90s?
July 31, 2009 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only viable explanation for Bolton's position is that he is taking some kind of new medication.
August 3, 2009 9:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bolton is still a neocon, and he still believes in the PNAC plan.
http://www.newamericancentury.org
http://pnac.info/
August 3, 2009 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's what is happening. If Israel gives up nukes, then he'll push the US to extend the nuke shield to Israel. Then every time there is a terrorist attack Bolton will call for a nuke response and if Iran gets nukes Bolton believes they will be used against Israel, and then we will be justified in Nuking Iran.
Remember, the end game is to Nuke Iran.
August 3, 2009 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink