Inflation is Not the Problem
Here is a scary chart. A second wave of foreclosures in California seems to be growing monthly. More disturbing is that twice the number of homes sold each month are coming back on the market through foreclosure. With this kind of supply- demand imbalance anyone who thinks that prices will stabilize soon is smoking something from Humboldt County.
And as for the inflation hawks on Wall Street, what are they snorting?




















A second great article from you, Taplin. That's two more than most people ever publish. I didn't think you had it in you. My apologies. This is definitely the kind of stuff we should be seeing and discussing...even though I often disagree with you on facts and interpretations.
June 24, 2009 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Do you have to be a douchebag everytime you post?
June 24, 2009 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Seems to be growing"? This wave of foreclosures has been predictable and predicted for some time because all those adjustables are resetting at higher rates than people can afford.
Despite knowing this was coming, the Obama administration has pursued a policy of assisting the banks but doing little for the homeowners who the banks need to keep paying. The piddling mortgage assistance program of the adminstration has had little impact on the situation and relatively few homeowners have been able to benefit from it.
It's my understanding that the Obama assistance program, instead of helping to head off financial disasters for families, only kicks in in cases where foreclosure is imminent and so is provided so late in the process the homeowner is nearly broke anyway. The government needs to be implementing a program of direct mortgage relief to homeowners. The banks, despite an effective cost to them of near zero are charging rates higher than necessary to those seeking mortgages.
Given the massive public funds spent to keep the bankers in the game, one would think the government would do a better job of making them charge the lowest interest rates possible to help bring an end to the unprecedented number of foreclosures that have been going on for the past year or more. Instead, the rich guys and their "financial institutions" are the priority. Makes no sense at all.
June 24, 2009 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
"all those adjustables are resetting at higher rates than people can afford"
Why are those rates so high given that mortgage rates in general are said to be so low? Did people buy into criminal contracts with no reasonable escape clause and in which the new rates are not tied to current general debt rates??
June 24, 2009 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
"It's my understanding that the Obama assistance program, instead of helping to head off financial disasters for families, only kicks in in cases where foreclosure is imminent and so is provided so late in the process the homeowner is nearly broke anyway."
Your understanding is incorrect. Most borrowers wait far to long until foreclosure is imminent, but the program is available much earlier.
June 24, 2009 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know this isn't even remotely possible but congress or the WH should force the banks to renegotiate every last one of the loans from the bubble period. Without fees. And tell them to go piss up a pipe.
Mortgage lenders precipitated these loans and in all probability knew full well the home values wouldn't hold.
June 24, 2009 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly what I said from the beginning. However, that, like many other viable solutions, would have required them to place a value on their holdings, which would have triggered junk status and led to the collapse of the entire banking system.
We currently have a banking system built upon a foundation of lies. Those lies are known to be lies. They will be allowed to continue to lie for as long as it takes to inflate the next bubble, which, without a complete overhaul, is the only way - I repeat, the only way out they see out of this mess. Any other solution would destroy the system and they won't allow that to happen. It will have to happen despite them to happen at all.
June 24, 2009 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
what are they snorting?
Like dogs, each others' asses.
June 24, 2009 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
In answer to this . . .
Hopefully, Drano® . . .
The fewer there are -- the better for the country.
~OGD~
June 24, 2009 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, re:
They're just jawboning, not actually doing anything. If they were seriously anticipating inflation soon they would be buying TIPS, gold, etc., in substantial amounts.That said, there is a big problem with the Bush debt. (Obama's current spending is not the problem, or not yet at least; it's the existing debt.) There are only two ways to get rid of it: pay it off, or default on it. There are only two ways to pay it off: raise taxes, and/or, cut spending. There are only two ways to default on it: outright, and/or, inflate it away.
All four choices are unappealing, but the amount of "unappealingness" varies from one player to the next. Which one(s) will actually happen, and when, is anybody's guess.
June 24, 2009 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agree with your analysis, ct, except I wouldn't exactly call the inflation option "default" (though I understand your point, and wouldn't quibble).
Given those four choices, my view is that the only one politically possible is inflation. So to me it's not a question of "if" but "when".
I'm mostly in cash now. How much deflation will we have before inflation kicks in? How low will we go? And then what? Equities? Or metals? Or... what??
-- ARG
June 24, 2009 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
"More disturbing is that twice the number of homes sold each month are coming back on the market through foreclosure."
"back"?
That sounds as if these are second foreclosures. Did you mean it that way, that houses sold after foreclosure are now being foreclosed on a second time?
I'm thinking "back" shouldn't be there, that you simply mean that foreclosure activity is roughly double sales numbers.
June 24, 2009 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
The assumption, I think, is that most of these foreclosures are houses purchased relatively recently (within two years, say). Thus, these are houses that were on the market recently and are now coming back on the market.
I don't think there was any intent to imply that any homes were being foreclosed upon more than once.
-- ARG
June 24, 2009 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
A second wave of foreclosures in California . . . .
In July 2008 California enacted a consumer friendly foreclosure law which had the effect of delaying default notices and foreclosure proceedings for several months.
The "second wave" is less than meets the eye.
June 24, 2009 8:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
One thing... I don't think the inflation hawks see inflation RIGHT NOW, except that the run-up in oil from $30 to $70 in a short period of time is worrisome. It's that they don't trust the Fed's ability or will to mop up excess liquidity when the time is right. If Greenpan's willingness to keep rates low even as real estate and the stock market took off again, even as the dollar fell and commodities prices inflated is to be taken as evidence, the skepticism is warranted even if I don't happen to buy it.
June 24, 2009 8:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right. They're full on the gas now, but will they know when to step off? The last guy didn't.
-- ARG
June 24, 2009 11:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
These concerns, in both posts, are very interesting.
Many of the comments on economy from Krugman, Reich, and others, both on the web and in papers and radio, are interesting and point in a similar direction -- there needs to be much more done by way of further stimulus, with a ground-up, aggressive approach by the federal government taking the lead, to stop communities and states, as well as the international economy, from really going into a prolonged depression. Indeed, the notion of worrying about inflation seems to suggest -- when what you do is bail out the banks etc bigtime, once they've gotten what they want, they turn back to the same slump-inducing logic they have always pursued. If the recovery were from the bottom up, with the big institutions getting their larger bailouts indirectly through grassroots economic recovery, they might be less insistent on "anti-inflationary" (1936-37 type premature backoff) economics.
As for this and other charts, my thoughts are the same two that always come to my mind:
(1) What exactly do we need to do about it (and who might draw up plans with sufficient specificity so that it could really be the basis of effective and focused political mobilization)
(2) CLEARLY THE LEFT-OF-OBAMA ECONOMISTS AND PROFESSIONALS NEED TO GET TOGETHER TO HAMMER OUT SOME KIND OF COLLECTIVE PROGRAM, THEN WORKED INTO A OONSENSUS OF THE MAIN PROGRESSIVE ORGANIZATIONS AND LEADERS (eg labor unions) AND THEN BUILT INTO A SERIOUS MOVEMENT. It seems that the pundits are more like splendid gurus attracting personal followings, but without the kind of political impact that goes beyond discussion that ONLY a mobilized and unified progressive alternative movement can make possible
June 25, 2009 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Red Herring.
We understand inflation.
We know how to beat it.
Inflation is EASY.
The threat is deflation.
June 25, 2009 9:06 PM | Reply | Permalink