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The Housing Boom and Bust

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Thanks for the invitation to discuss Ed Andrews' Busted. By way of introduction, I'm an editor at Newsweek, where I've covered the housing boom and bust, and I wrote a book called House Lust that chronicled the irrational exuberance over real estate during the first half of the decade.

I read Busted a few weeks ago in a single sitting. The author's personal story is really gripping and drives it along. Unlike most of what's been written about the housing meltdown, there's a story to Busted, and I stayed up ridiculously late because I wanted to find out how it ended. While Andrews' disintegrating finances (and, notably, its effect on his new marriage) form the heart of the book, he's filled out the story by exploring the supply chain of his loan. (This is the other two-thirds of the book he mentions in his introduction.) While these sections are less compelling than his personal story, I admired the imaginative way he managed to take what is essentially a really good magazine story (ie the excerpt that ran in the Times Magazine) and fill it out to create a book.

I've read a few of the recent books that have analyzed the housing debacle, and I definitely have a preference for books like this one in which the author was a participant. For readers who want to read this story from the other side of the mortgage-closing table, I'd suggest Richard Bitner's Confessions of a Subprime Lender, which gives an insider treatment to what brokers and lenders were thinking when offering dubious loans like the one Andrews signed.

A couple of thoughts on Andrews' tale:

--Throughout the boom and bust I've been struck by how many well-educated people simply don't understand the basics of personal finance. While Andrews' tale shows he had awareness of just how tight his budget would be with his new mortgage payment, the fact that he signed on anyway suggests to me his story is another data point in this educational failure. Schools spend a ton of time teaching kids all sorts of stuff with limited usefulness. (My oldest is currently memorizing the 50 state capitols). Wouldn't we all be better-served if they spent more time teaching how to prepare and live on a budget, the basics of compound interest, fixed versus variable rate loans, etc? Even though Andrews understood better than most borrowers the risks he was taking, he didn't seem to understand them well enough.

--As the author says, his book has received negative attention because he failed to disclose his wife's two bankruptcy filings (one prior to their marriage). My hat's off to The Atlantic's Megan McArdle for the smart spadework on this. Having read the book, I'd tend to agree this is a significant omission, and I'd be curious to hear whether Ed's book and NYT Magazine editors knew in advance that he'd left it out, and if not, their reaction to learning that fact.

--At the conclusion of Busted, it's unclear whether Andrews will be able to keep his house. I believe I've read that Andrews has suggested that Busted will need to be a bestseller (and pay royalties beyond the advance) if he's to keep his home. If Andrews cares to let us know whether anything has changed in his finances since the book ends, whether he's been able to get a loan modification, and his sense of the odds that he gets to keep the house, I'd be interested.

Thanks, and looking forward to the discussion.


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I see people saying all the time that it's amazing folks don't "understand the basics of personal finance." I'd like to suggest that the fact that we keep saying it means that the basics aren't, so, well... basic.

Personal finance, particularly retirement planning and home ownership, is an extremely complex topic (and the two aspects of it I mentioned are related).

Problem 1: returns are not predictable. Averages exist but in major markets for stocks, bonds, commodities and real estate, the averages mask the choppiness of returns. So the stock market gives you an 8% return annualized over the last hundred years but it does that by going up 23% one year, up 18% the next, dropping 30% and so on... Bond returns are smooth if you hold to maturity but there's a risk to that (what if you can't hold to maturity? What if inflation eats the lower returns away?)

Problem 2: Most of us don't have enough money that we can save for retirement without taking some risk now. Usually we do that with equity risk. But real estate risk is another reasonable way to go about this.

Problem 3: In finance, a decision that causes pain in the short run is often the right choice in the long run. You say that Edmund's knew he was going to have trouble making his payments. Okay. Sure. But maybe a year or two of struggling makes sense if you expect the asset to appreciate. Private equity investors do this all the time and they take on debt to do it, they aren't considered losers when things go badly.

Not saying you're wrong about teaching the basics of finance in school. But I'm warning you that the basics of finance are often not all that helpful. Risk is risk. There are no returns without it. Taking a risk and losing doesn't mean you're stupid or a loser. What we're told about the basics of investing (go against the herd, be contrarian, buy when others are selling, sell when they buy) don't actually work in practice as iron clad strategies. This is why we have all sorts of other contradictory slogans like "don't catch falling knives!"

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Judging by the recent remark from CNBC(?) financial code-talkers that Obama's proposed consumer protection agency(?) is the 'worst, most dangerous' of all the Administration's economic fixer-uppers, could it be that "understand(ing) the basics of personal finance" is an understanding highly unfavored by the Street?

Rothschild introducing banking methods into America, "The few who can understand the system will be either so interested in its profits, or so dependent on its favors, that there will be no opposition from that class, while, on the other hand, that great body of people, mentally incapable of comprehending the tremendous advantage that Capital derives from the system, will bear its burden without complaint, and, perhaps without even suspecting that the system is inimical to their interests."

Buying a home has the added dimension of deep emotional investment, which is when Machiavelli's remark that the great majority of mankind is satisfied with appearances as though they were realities enters the purchase process.

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I'd like to suggest that the fact that we keep saying it means that the basics aren't, so, well... basic.
I wonder how that came to be?
Probably the fault of the commies.
Maybe if women were restricted to Nursing and Home Economics in college?
Encourage stay-at-home dads to take Home Ec?
Teach grade-schoolers the basics of Ponzi Scheming?

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Your questions are very good ones, destor.

Part of the reason your questions are so important, I think, is that the average person wouldn't have any concern with any of this as recently as the 70's. (I know, for some, that's like the 19th century.) Back in the 70's, most people didn't/couldn't invest in the stock market and similar things, there was really nothing but savings accounts and government savings bonds, all that other stuff was for "rich people." (I recall when CD's were first promoted at banks, they were big hit when introduced, it seemed to me like anyone with a bit of savings was all of a sudden going "hey, yay, we can wheel and deal a bit with our svaings like the rich people do!")

A home mortgage was not really considered that type of investment, but more like the only way you could maybe avoid paying rent in old age, and you better do it or you will be one of those old age loser renters in some lousy little urban apartment, the kind with the bare light bulb, and the flashing neon lights outside (these kind of apartments were in the TV show "Twilight Zone" a lot, what was that all about?) There were always some average people that "invested" in real estate, buying properties, fixing them up, getting into being landlords, but they were always rogues like your Uncle Joe the successful machinist, the one with the tatoos who didn't want to be a machinist anymore...same as some people fixed up cars and resold them through the want ads for extra money.

For me your question really hinges on whether the middle class gets to play with capital like the rich, or not. I don't think it's possible to put the genie back into the bottle on that. So from now on, the question is how that will proceed once people lose the current fear, which they will inevitably will.

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Oh I forgot an important one: just a bit earlier, in the 50's and 60's, there were no credit cards, there was very little credit of any kind besides mortgages available to most people. Credit, too, was for rich people, as "the little people" couldn't handle it. The department stores had revolving accounts to buy their expensive stuff made by American labor, and the few discount places available had layaway, and the dentist might let you pay in installments. If you went short before payday, you might borrow from your kid's babysitting money....

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And... people had pensions. And the 401(k) was introduced not to replace pensions but to augment them, to give people a little skin in the game. Giving people a tax deferred account and tell them to make their own damned pensions was never a good idea. But that's where we are.

I've just noticed, though, a theme in this discussion -- the "simple rules of finance" theme. It isn't simple and even those who thought they understood the complexities didn't. Just ask Greenspan.

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Just a suggestion . . .

...in the 50's and 60's, there were no credit cards

It may behoove you to look up the following:

1958 "American Express" "Bank Americard"

Our folks had a Diners Club card in '54 ... Yes it was through the business account. I was eight years old.

We were not rich by any stretch of the imagination but we did have a Bank Americard and two gasoline credit cards. When I began driving (legally) in '61 I used the credit cards to fill up my jalopy for $3.25 ... :O)

~OGD~

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With the exception of Bank Americard, which outside of California spread quite slowly, aren't you referring to "charge cards" and not to "credit cards"?

VISA and Mastercard weren't significant players until the late '70s, yes?

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Nope . . .

They were not "charge cards."

~OGD~

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I thought Diners Club was a charge card. Not so?

Also, I thought the original gas cards were charge cards and not credit cards.

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Call me crazy, but I don't think the core problem here is a lack of financial education.
As Dan McGuinn notes, I knew quite a lot about exotic mortgages in 2004 and I knew mine was a huge gamble. It wasn't a lack of knowledge; it was the fever of romance.
More broadly, there's evidence that subprime borrowers were more aware of how their loans worked than people give them credit for. Most subprime loans had teaser rates, which were spring-loaded to jump sharply after two years. But before housing prices stopped climbig, more than half of subprime borrowers refinanced by the two-year mark and more than 70 percent by the 3-year mark.
The bigger problem here was that lenders were making loans that the borrowers had no realistic ability of repaying.
Subprime loans and Option Arms could only be rationalized by assuming that housing prices would keep climbing at a healthy rate.
You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see the dangers of that assumption. Why didn't people? Because the housing bubble was a mania, meaning that emotions overtook reason.
Bottom line: the government needs to step in with rules. Maybe only one rule: require that borrowers document a realistic ability to repay the mortgage, based on the real rate rather than the teaser rate.



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Good points all, but we have to keep the interests of the borrowers and the lenders separate and distinct.

Rising home prices may protect borrowers from a capital loss should they become unable to service their debt (although what loss a zero downpayer will ever suffer is moot). But rising home prices don't help borrowers to service their debt or to remain in their homes. The "nut" is the "nut" no matter what the market value of the home may be.

Rising home prices do, on the other hand, reduce the lenders' credit risk -- that is, if they have to foreclose a defaulting mortgage, the auction or REO price will make them whole.

Easy money and easy lending standards produced a house price boom which fed on itself, and I have a lot of sympathy for first time buyers who had to ask themselves, "Jeebus; if I don't buy now, will I ever be able to?"

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I 100% agree with your statement, and I think this brings to light one of the main forces at work here; namely, the over importance of lifestyle as a measure of success in this country, and the great lengths people will go to attain that lifestyle. Instead of blaming a lack of financial training, maybe we should examine the forces that are driving this need to attain a certain lifestyle at all costs.

I also agree that the banks and regulators were woefully negligent here. Just because someone wants a loan is no reason to give it to them. Just because bond holders are craving more investments is no reason to package crap to sell to them. There needs to be some sense of due diligence to make sure that people are not placed in a position to fail, even if that means they have to reevalute their lifestyles, and investors know exactly what they are being sold, even if that means limiting options for investments.

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How about this rule: The originator of a mortgage has to hold it (not sell it) for at least two years. If the loan has a teaser rate, the originator must hold it for at least two years after the teaser rate has expired.

-- ARG

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Andrews' story saddened me and my wife. Although we've just bought a couple of apartments in San Francisco, we were almost caught in a scam like this a few months ago. Luckily, our common sense told us something wasn't right and we went to a broker friend of us who offered to help.

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It amazed me that Andrews' book has received negative attention due to the fact that he didn't manage to disclose his wife's two bankruptcy filings, because they are judging the facts, not the book in itself. I guess that means the piece of writing has captivated the critics so badly, they became a part of the story. The facts are really powerful presented, they made me be very careful regarding my search of apartments for rent in Toronto, although there is no need to be like that.

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This information is very useful! Thanks!
Best regards, Katya, CEO of windows server 2008 hyper v, iscsi windows 2000

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I was just browsing on Wilmington NC real estate when I found your article.I must say that I really enjoyed reading your article.I found many useful information.I bet there are many people who agree with me.

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Si vous etes interesses par le dossier, ou desirez en savoir plus, contactez-moi par mail, et je vous mettrai en contact.
Best regards,Jane, CEO of high availability solutions

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