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Why Elections Will Continue to Lean Left Due to the Web

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Perhaps like some others, I've run short of time this week, trying to keep up (at Editor & Publisher, and via Twitter etc.) with what's going on in Iran, including the media crackdown. So just a few words for now.

First, I've read Eric's book and can certainly recommend it. I was especially keen to read it as my own recent book, Why Obama Won, highlights Web/blog influence and claims it one of the real keys to his victory. So rather than take a broader look at the future of liberal blogging, as some have done here, let me briefly return to the campaign and try to guess what will happen in future elections.

I guess I feel that the uprising on the left side of online, pushed also by generational and demographic changes, will keep the country at least somewhat to the left for many years. And you can quote me. In fact, I predicted that last year even before the current rise of Twitter.

I could go on and on, but let me just mention one reason for feeling this way: fact-checking and instant counter-punditry online. And I'll just cite one dramatic example.

Last fall's four major candidate debates could have swung the election, narrowly, to McCain. Obama's lead was not strong and we've seen before what can happen, with Reagan in 1980, Clinton in 1992 and Bush in 2000. Indeed, the performances by Obama or Biden in the four debates were not particularly strong. But the ticket won going away. For several reasons, of course, but I'd argue that online activity around the debates had a lot to do with it.

Why? You may recall that each of the debates ended with the TV commentators, by and large, claiming the Republican candidates (even Palin) surprisingly "held their own" and maybe even gained an edge. In elections past, this likely would have given the GOP a nice bump in the days that followed and led to a deadlock in the next polls.

But this year that "momentum" was blunted, even reversed by one big factor: the Web. Popular liberal sites immediately fact-checked the Republicans' statements and analyzed why those candidates had, in reality, lost ground. Even more importantly, this time around, various news organizations sponsored scientific instant polls and focus groups - and in every case (even over at Fox), they showed a landslide of public opinion in favor of the Democratic debater. Not even close. Palin, for example, had "held her own" against Biden only in the minds of the pundits.

The results not only came quickly, they were disseminated quickly via the Web, so the next day's news summaries all had to cite them.

It must have been humiliating for most of the TV pundits. One minute they were assuring viewers that McCain and Palin and held their own or more -and within a few minutes they had to cite polls showing that their analysis had been wholly wrong. Whoops.

Of course, I'd have to add that the work of Nate Silver and his 538 team all year often provided balance to the runaway claims of mainstream pundits.

I could go on, and on, but Iran beckons.

Greg Mitchell's latest book is Why Obama Won. He is editor of Editor & Publisher and his Twitter feed is at GregMitch.


5 Comments

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This analysis seems to assume that the right is inherently stupid and will not respond with smarter candidates whose remarks stand up to fact-checking; or that the leftward side of the political establishment is incapable of producing dumb and destructive policies that voters will punish them for.

My guess is that the pendulum will swing back rather quickly.

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No, I don't think so. The D's are doing what the R's did, grooming a "farm team" -- like Denver Mayor Hickenlooper who put on a showcase convention and could easily replace Gov. Ritter, who is term-limited after 2010 or step up sooner and run for the Senate if appointed Senator Bennett falters. Meanwhile, as has been written in these pages, President Obama is showing his political brilliance by bringing some key Republicans into the federal space through appointments -- sending a credible GOP challenger, Gov. John Huntsman, halfway around the world, elevating one of the "endangered" Upstate New York reps to Army Secretary, and coming very close to lifting New Hampshire Sen. Judd Gregg out of his seat to run Commerce.

Meanwhile, the GOP itself is silencing most voices of reason, or we're seeing once-perceived reasonable office holders, like Sen. John McCain, join in the belligerence.

Lots of demographic factors are going to weigh down the Republicans, too, like an electorate more driven by the young, rebounding of unions (with or without EFCA), a fair census and redistricting, and the delayed, but inevitable, immigration reform that will just kick the living crap out of them.

The pendulum will inevitably swing back, but not for a long, long time. Just ask Sen. Arlen Specter (Canary -- Mine Shaft).

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Well, I agree that the left is capable of passing stupid laws. But as it stands now the right does appear to be inherently stupid, and if they have smarter candidates out there, I'd be curious to know who they are. Can you name one?

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So long as Major Media -- Daily papers, TV News, and the like is as "sick" as it is, I suspect the innovation and depth blogs are capable of offering is just an inviting open door. The real question is whether Progressives can organize and find the means to put into the field true news gatherers -- as distinct from analysts -- who taken together can reinvent actual reporting. We are still mightly dependent on the thining ranks of beat reporters supported by the slowly dying corporate media, and we need to figure out how to replace those who do this function, but who do it in new ways.

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Until the right-wingers let go of the religious Right, the country will be in Democratic hands for awhile.

People 30 and younger in America (as in Iran) are socially liberal and have grown up seeing 2 different Americas emerge (the ultra wealthy and everyone else).

But I also agree that facts play a part.

Remember this:

Reality has a very well known liberal bias
or is it,
Liberals have a very well known Reality?

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