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Too Early to Call

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Right now, there are hundreds of thousands of Iranians demonstrating in Tehran, Rasht, Orumiyeh, Zahedan, and Tabriz. The mostly non-violent demonstrations are the largest, and most evocative, of the 1979 revolution against the Shah that Iran has seen. The pictures coming out of Iran are amazing and focus attention on what is really at stake in this conflict - just how much of a Republic is the Islamic Republic of Iran going to be?

We believe this is an existentially important moment for Iran - perhaps the most important one since the Revolution. The odds are always with whoever has control of the army and airwaves. People can be forgiven for already assuming that the hundreds of thousands of people demonstrating today in Tehran will fail in contesting the election results. Perhaps they will. But then again, perhaps they won't. Mir-Hossein Mousavi has a lot of people on his side and we don't just mean the throngs in the street. He was accompanied today in his appearance in Tehran in front of his supporters with former President Mohamed Khatami and the other rival presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi. Even the right wing candidate (to the right of Ahmadinejad), Mohsen Razaee (a former leader of the Revolutionary Guard), has contested the election results. And these aren't necessarily soft touches.... Each was involved in the revolution that brought down the US supported monarchy and still remembers how that went.

Of course, this is not a fight to overthrow the Republic - for many of the demonstrators, this is a fight to save the Republic, such as it were. It is an indicator of a strong level of support in Iran for the system of a constitutional republic, if not with the limitations that have been placed on it. It shows a remarkable politicization of the Iranian middle class that must be causing shudders throughout parts of the Arab world, just as the overthrow of the Shah did almost exactly thirty years ago. If for no other reason, this attempt to demand accountability by those convinced they were denied their vote is supremely admirable. It also shows that while there has been significant trust by masses of Iranians in the system itself (if in fact it is true that over 80% of eligible voters turned in their ballots), it also shows a significant lack of trust in those institutions which head the system.

Frustrating as it is, the United States should avoid getting involved. This is an Iranian fight for Iranian freedoms, and that struggle is noble enough to win our hopes even if we are in no position to affect its outcome.

The Iranian elections and the resulting popular discontent inside Iran have generated some inside the beltway arguments already. Our colleagues at the New America Foundation, Patrick Doherty and Flynt Leverett, in two separate pieces have argued that the elections in Iran were legitimate and that all the evidence leading up to the election showed that the incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was going to win. Flynt and Hillary Mann make the cogent point that the US has to learn to deal with Iran as a state and not individuals and will have to come to grips with addressing the underlying issues on which we disagree, but on which there is general unanimity among Iranian politicians - such as the right to pursue nuclear energy. While we agree with the conclusion - the US has the same general challenges facing it regardless of whether Ahmadinejad or Mousavi is the president - we disagree with the assumption that the elections were fair based on past polling which indicated a plurality, but not a majority, selecting Ahmadinejad.

While we can't be certain, there are some very compelling arguments suggesting that the results as declared by the Iranian interior ministry are flawed. Juan Cole in his blog entry "Stealing the Iranian Elections" provides an excellent summary of those arguments which include the surprisingly low levels of support for Mousavi in his home region of Tabriz, the overall low numbers for Karroubi and Rezaee (especially when compared to Karroubi's numbers in the 2005 elections) and the alleged majority in Tehran for Ahmadinejad. Cole also debunks the class and culture wars argument being made suggesting that the reform movement is really a narrow and elite-based northern Tehran effort. He argues that, whenever tested, its roots have been proven to be socially broader and deeper.

In addition, we ourselves would ask if there were such broad public support for Ahmadinejad, why has there been such a concerted government attempt to shut down media and communications networks? The government isn't acting with the assurance of one that has two-thirds of the public behind it.

The real question for the United States is not to decide on behalf of the Iranians who really got elected, but to prepare for the aftermath. We have a shoddy enough history in interfering in other people's electoral politics without getting involved in this one.

Reuters quotes a retired 61-year-old teacher who gave his name only as Ali who said the rally recalled the 1979 Islamic revolution. "We used to protest against the shah in this street. I'm so sorry that now we have to walk the same street to preserve our rights."

The fact that Iranians are making that march again is a remarkable accomplishment in and of itself - regardless of what happens tomorrow.

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Amjad Atallah and Daniel Levy co-direct the Middle East Task Force at the New America Foundation.


8 Comments

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Based upon pictures I've seen, it sure seems that Iranians turn out better to protest a stolen election than Americans.

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I'd like to know why your colleague at the NAF published an OpEd in the WaPo this morning saying that Ahmad had a "2 to 1" margin in their "scientific" poll three weeks before the election (and one week into the campaign season) without pointing out to the tens of thousands of readers that lead was 33-14. This idiotic meme of "2 to 1" is now making the rounds in other media (at least I heard it on CNN). Your foundation has done a great disservice to the Iranian democrats through Mr. Doherty, and you should do more than cordially disagree with someone who was willing to mislead so many people on a day that blood was running in the streets of Tehran.

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33-14 is a 2 to 1 lead. There's no way to tell how the rest would vote, but it does suggest that the 2 to 1 lead in the reported results is plausible. Given how the government is behaving, I lean towards the idea that the election was stolen, but a lot of people are acting like they know this for certain.

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I am willing to accept the argument that a 33-14 makes it plausible that Ahmadinejad won. What I don't like is the way that the inference was conveniently smoothed over for readers who didn't read to the sixth paragraph of the OpEd and the fact that there were huge undecideds. This was Lying with Statistics 101. If you're going to make an argument on the editorial pages of a major newspaper on a critical day, you should make it honestly.

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Conversation with Grandma after Iran’s elections

"Some 48 hours following the stress and distress of the Iranian election results, a chat with my most trusted news source for inter-Iranian affairs: my grandmother. The force of right-wing populism didn’t die with Bush the Second. (My translation from original Persian.)

What on earth is going on in Tehran?
It was pretty quiet until the election results came in. It’s true that everyone was riled up and engaged in shouting matches at the voting stations — your grandfather voted for Mousavi but it took him 2 or 3 tries, it was so crowded — but it was run fairly.

What about you?
Well, there were 180 candidates. I figured, why should only 4 be given a chance to run? I didn’t vote in this election. It was illegitimate in my eyes. You can be illegitimate and fair at the same time.

How did the debates affect the outcome of the election?
They had a huge effect. First of all, personally speaking, I’ve watched every single debate, talk and analysis in nearly every waking hour since this all started. I go to bed at 1am or 2 am most nights.
There was a before and after effect for a lot of people. Before the debates, Mousavi had a strong chance, at least in Tehran. But it was like a see-change. After the debates, a lot of people who were going to vote for Mousavi came out for Ahmadinejad. A lot of people.

Why?
Because of Mousavi’s Rafsanjani connection. And you have to understand something. [Ahmadinejad] sways people. He says certain things — he says certain truths. He is not a thief. He is a horrible, horrible person, but he is not a thief. He says things directly."
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The Iranian Street is like 3-0 going into this latest political revolt.

They prevailed twice during the 1950s in the Mossedegh episodes, (first to allow him to stay in, and then when he was trying to concentrate power on himself, they forced him out, with a little underhanded help from Britain and America) and again in 1979, when they chased the Shah out of Iran.

The bigger the crowds get, the more I'm convinced it's over for the establishment. The big question is whether they'll get a new constitution and if it will have the religiosity stripped out of it. The Supreme Leader, having said that the election was God's judgment, has, cost God in government, some credibility. They may then come to the conclussion that anyone and everyone can manipulate God to their sides, and thus resolve to keep him out of politics.


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Was the election stolen? Was it legit? Nobody is quite sure right now but all evidence points to the former.

US should definitely stay out of it directly. There is enough international pressure on the regime in Tehran right now on top of the internal pressures that nothing more is needed.

What strikes me is that whether Mousavi prevailed or not is secondary to what is actually happening on the streets of Tehran and other major cities in Iran. This kind of mass protesting hasn't been seen since the Islamic Revolution. The reformers are standing up to the Supreme Leader and defying him. And the regime is apparently powerless to stop the protests, just to keep them in check and harass them a bit. I never thought I'd see the reformers stand up to the regime like this. Though there is no way to know how this will eventually play out I think right now the reformers have a little bit of a upper hand in this. Amazing...I wish them well.

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This has all the earmarks of a media-inspired and driven velvet revolution, aka those in eastern europe after the fall of the wall. However, the eastern block countries were european in their culture, with european values, democratic or not. I don't think I would count on a european solution to the political crisis in Iran. It also appears (though I would love to see the Iranian Mullahs thrown out of power) that there is a lot of anecdotal wishful thinking being attached to the reports surfacing in the west. Maybe we should wait and see what actually transpired, just in case Ahmadinejad might actually have won the vote. I can remember how excited some people were when Iraqis surfaced as great democrats after the invasion, only to turn out to have a few less than democratic issues of their own, or how about the Pakistani democrats who were discovered to have committed various forms of political and financial fraud in previous incarnations as Pakistani politicians. As a matter of fact, how much do we actually know about Mousavi, aside from the fact that he's against Ahmadinejad ?

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