Friday Poll in Israel shows Majority/Solid Support for Settlement Evacuation
Every Friday, the Israeli papers publish a national poll catching a snapshot of the public's mood. This week's poll is unequivocal in showing major public support for an end to the settlement foolery. This gives Bibi Netanyahu the political cover he needs, if he wants to transform, but as the Friday commentators also point out in the Israeli papers, whether his own personality and personal history trap him in the paradigm of the past is the question of the moment....as one top Israeli commentator says, if he doesn't respond to Obama's program, the current government is on a collision course that puts it on a trajectory for toppling and soon....the right politician in Israel (with help from Israel's friends) can capture the current mood and make progress --Here is the poll:
Yes, We Can Surrender
Yedioth Ahronoth (p. 4) by Sima Kadmon / Dahaf Polling Institute --
Q: Should Netanyahu acquiesce to Obama's demands or reject these even at the
cost of sanctions?
Acquiesce -- 56%
Not acquiesce -- 40%
Q: Should Israel agree to the establishment of a Palestinian state as part
of a peace deal?
Agree -- 55%
Not agree -- 41%
Q: Is Obama's policy good for Israel?
Not good -- 53%
Good -- 26%
Q: How would you rate Netanyahu's performance since being elected prime
minister?
Good -- 47%
Not good -- 45%
Q: Are you satisfied with Netanyahu's conduct in addressing the crisis with
the United States?
Satisfied -- 34%
Not satisfied -- 47%
Q: Will Netanyahu eventually agree to the establishment of a Palestinian
state?
Will agree -- 44%
Will not agree -- 50%
Q: Of whom Obama is being more considerate: Israel's security needs or the
Palestinians desire to establish a state?
The Palestinian's desires --51%
Israel's needs -- 22%
Q: Who is responsible for the crisis with the United States?
Obama -- 28%
Netanyahu -- 16%
Both parties -- 50%
Q: Are you disappointed by Obama's policy towards Israel?
Disappointed -- 51%
Not disappointed -- 41%
Q: Should Israel freeze settlement construction?
Yes -- 52%
No -- 43%
Q: Should the illegal outposts be evacuated?
Yes -- 70%
No -- 25%
Q: Should the birthrate in the settlements be taken under consideration and
therefore allow construction for the sake of natural growth?
Yes -- 54%
No -- 42%
Q: If the government decides to halt construction in the settlements, should
Yisrael Beiteinu leave the government?
Among the general public:
Yes -- 36%
No -- 41%
Among Yisrael Beiteinu voters:
Yes -- 23%
No -- 60%
Q: If it is decided to freeze all construction in the settlements, should
Kadima join the government?
Among the general public:
Yes -- 41%
No -- 43%
Among Kadima voters:
Yes -- 52%
No -- 41%
Q: If it is decided to evacuate the settlements, will you join those
resisting this?
Yes -- 12%
No -- 85%
The poll questioned 501 people. The margin of error is 4.4%. In
questions where figures do not amount to 100%, the missing percentages refer
to those who chose not to reply.
. . . the right politician in Israel (with help from Israel's friends) can capture the current mood and make progress . . . .
Names!
We want names!
June 5, 2009 9:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
this poll does not show the kind of enlightenment suggested in the header -- after all, which settlements are "illegal"? In my opinion, most or all the settlements of those moving into the occupied territories w/o the consent of those who live there since Israel's conquest of them in '67 could be said to be 'illegal'.
To acknowledge that something is "illegal", it isn't difficult to "solidly" support "evacuation".
The headline should have included the word illegal to avoid being misleading
also many other apects of the poll suggest a high degree of hawkishness
June 5, 2009 9:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Correct. The header is not completely wrong and these people are obviously confused, but correct.
Similarly to what you say, sure, they mostly want a "freeze"? What kind of "freeze," though? From the answer to another question we can see it's a "freeze" with natural growth. In other words, a *mockery* of an actual freeze. So they don't know what the heck they want (a bit like in USSR at time of its collapse BTW), and they sorely need leadership.
Obama intends to provide it, from what I can see.
June 5, 2009 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
i agree. the poll doesn't even ask about abandoning or evacuating actual settlements. and no one but the hardest right settlers are particularly invested in the "outposts."
a misleading headline for a poll result that isn't there. maybe israelis do favor evacuating some of the actual settlements but a poll that shows that a majority endorse the settlement freeze isn't news.
June 5, 2009 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Especially if by endorsing a "freeze" they are allowing that the settlements can still grow, which is no freeze at all, though they can pat themselves on the pack for having answered in a PC way.
June 5, 2009 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Add to this the actual process of removing settlers. Many support removing settlements (with the mile wide loopholes you mention) as a concept. However, I think support would drop like a stone when the news cameras show soldiers removing Israeli citizens like they did a few years ago.
To be cynical, my guess is that Israel will remove a few of the far flung outposts in response to the pressure. The news and the government will emphasize how traumatic the process was with all sorts of dramatic interviews and footage. Then they'll wave that in the face of everyone who asks them for any more concessions, talking about how much they've sacrificed, even though they did very little as a practical matter.
June 5, 2009 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Arrogance giving way to pragmatism - OMG! What next?
June 5, 2009 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you once again Jo-Ann, for choosing dialogue over fireworks.
June 5, 2009 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Q: Should Israel freeze settlement construction?
Yes -- 52%
No -- 43%
Q: Should the birthrate in the settlements be taken under consideration and
therefore allow construction for the sake of natural growth?
Yes -- 54%
No -- 42%
So... there's an overlap of 10 respondents to this poll who say that settlement construction should be frozen... unless it inconveniences people popping out babies as part of the land-grab...
June 5, 2009 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I said the same above, didn't notice that you had beaten me to it. These people are directionless and need someone to show them the way. It ain't gonna be Bibi.
June 5, 2009 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
By and large, most people are definitely leaning toward the "good," I think, with probably a sizable chunk of support for the settlements existing not so much for the settlements themselves, but them as sort of a proxy for a general requirement for security in a two-state solution.
From these numbers and my personal seat-of-pants analysis, I would say the number of Israelis who would be satisfied with dismantling settlements (given an otherwise reasonable security situation) is at 60-65%. Unfortunately this is not reflected well in the policies of Israel, the state, but the situation is not so dissimilar from the dear old U.S. with the vocal taliban-conservative minority disproportionately affecting the nation's policies.
There are, however, problematic signs such as this:
As was pointed out in another entry, this generally means supporting established and enlarged (from original) settlements -- and presumably their retention; another interpretation would have this question conflict with the answers to some of the others (and there already are some dilemmas between some of the numbers.)
June 5, 2009 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
i'm not entirely sure where you're seeing the potential for such a huge number. if the results about illegal outposts and settlement freezes are encouraging, the clear unhappiness with obama's mildly critical tone seems to show that more serious pressure would be met with a lot of public opposition over there. but then again, both of us are just speculating :P
June 5, 2009 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, as someone who lives here, I can say that Karl is right. In 2005, more than 60% of the population supported the evacuation of all the settlements in Gaza, and move that became possible very much thanks to firm US support. With the right diplomacy and work, these numbers will be there when time comes to evacuate the West Bank too.
June 6, 2009 12:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder what the response would be if the poll asked if neighborhoods in Jerusalem, including the Jewish Quarter of the Old City and the Western Wall, should be subject to any development freeze? I suspect support would drop way down if these questions were posed.
Also wonder what the response would be to the question of whether Palestinians, as part of any final accord, should be required to recognize Israel as the Jewish state?
When the noise clears, it is these that will be the central issues in any talks.
June 5, 2009 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
This poll shows more evidence of the disturbing radicalization of Israeli society. Some things to note:
The "illegal outposts" comprise in Israeli jargon only a tiny portion of ramshackle wildcat settlements that have not been approved by the Israeli government. Almost everyone in Israel is opposed to these illegal outposts, even those who favor continued "legal" expansion of settlements, so that question isn't very important.
Only 52% support so much as a freeze of settlement activity. 43% want not just to keep the settlements that already exist, but to continue building more settlements. That's a bit shocking given that we have been assured for years that ordinary Israelis dislike the settlers and are opposed to the settlements.
Nowhere on the list above do we see a question such as, "Do you support the evacuation of the settlements?" Given that only 52% support a mere freeze on settlement expansion, one suspects that support for outright evacuation is low.
And indeed, here is the Ynet article describing the poll. Note the following passage:
A majority of 53% said Israel should not agree to evacuate all settlements, even if a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians depended on it, while 41% said they support evacuation.
The good news, if the decision is made to evacuate the settlements, only 12% say they will join the resistance against it. The bad news: 12% is over 800,000 Israelis.
Israelis clearly don't like Obama's policies, which is in fact the theme of the article, and appear to feel they are being forced by Obama into doing something that they would prefer not to do. They do say Netanyahu should "acquiesce" in Obama's demands, if the alternative is sanctions.
June 5, 2009 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Given the answer to the question Jo-Ann Mort omitted from the list, I would say the title of this post, Friday Poll in Israel shows Majority/Solid Support for Settlement Evacuation, is blatantly false.
The chief takeway from this poll is that Israelis don't like our popular president and his policies, which is further evidence they are not on our side.
June 5, 2009 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, if only life be so easy. Do remember, though, that your former president, for 8 years, told Israelis that they can go on building settlements with no restrictions, encouraged them to go to military operations, sabotaged peace talks with Syria, and publicly promised Sharon annexation of the large settlements in any future agreement. So while I very much welcome Obama and his pressure on my government, it is time for the American Left to understand that your government has a huge part and important responsibility for the conditions that create the opinions is such polls. Your government's share in the violent realities of this region does not allow you to decide that one day someone is on "our" or "their" side, not after telling people for 8 years that being "on your side" meant exactly the opposite of your current policies. It is exactly this kind of thinking that brought us to where we are.
Yes, the numbers in the polls are bad - but those numbers can change. They were different before the last wave of violence, and they might be different again with the right diplomacy in the future. But they will change only if both our societies would take responsibility for what both our government did for years and are still doing.
June 6, 2009 1:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
This was a *really* badly constructed poll by the way, for reasons a number of us have pointed out above.
The "illegal outposts" question is getting toward the realm of, "Should convicted bank robbers be compelled to pay for their crimes?" It is sufficiently clear to show us that those polled don't know what the hell they want, which again, provides and opening for a talented leader.
June 5, 2009 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
RE: "Friday Poll in Israel shows Majority/Solid Support for Settlement Evacuation"
BUT ALSO SEE - "Max Blumenthal: Feeling the Hate In Jerusalem on Eve of Obama's Cairo Address"
(EXCERPT) Max Blumenthal writes: On the eve of President Barack Obama’s address to the Muslim world from Cairo, Egypt, I stepped out onto the streets of Jerusalem with my friend Joseph Dana to interview young Israelis and American Jews about their reaction to the speech. We encountered rowdy groups of beer sodden twenty-somethings, many from the United States, and all eager to vent their visceral, even violent hatred of Barack Obama and his policies towards Israel. Usually I offer a brief commentary on my video reports, but this one requires no comment at all. Quite simply, it contains some of the most shocking footage I have ever filmed. Watch it and see if you agree. (Warning: this video contains profanity and material offensive to just about anyone.)
VIDEO - http://www.philipweiss.org/mondoweiss/2009/06/max-blumenthal-feeling-the-hate-in-jerusalem-on-eve-of-obamas-cairo-address.html
June 5, 2009 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
In what way is that different from a video taken in racist strongholds around the US? Does the fact that there are extremist fanatics come as a surprise to you? The fact that they exist does not mean they cannot be overcome.
June 6, 2009 1:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is interesting information, but it very badly needs to be appreciated, and stated, and acted upon that as far as U.S. policy is concerned it should and ultimately must be a matter of fundamental indifference what Israelis or Palestinians, in general, and their respective terrorist and settler lunatic fringes, in particular, think, want or care about. America has its OWN interests in the region, a land-for-peace compromise being first and foremost, and it is LONG PAST high time for our country to stop being a patsy for foreign fanatics of any stripe. What feuding foreign maniacs will ACCEPT, not what they scream for, MUST be OUR focus.
June 6, 2009 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
The most illuminating stat is that most Israeli would support much more accomodating policies IF DEMANDED BY USA than in the absence of such demands.
It makes me wonder what Obama will actually do. He is playing the situation pretty slowly: is he making appearances for the sake of appearances, as some despair, or is he playing chess, moving the pieces to their positions etc., as the others despair (and I hope)?
Actually, I would also commission a poll asking Americans how many months of doubled/tripled gasoline prices they would be ready to accept for the sake of decreasing a threat to Israel (if bombing Iran for the latter reason would lead to a blockade of Persian Gulf and the former effect).
June 6, 2009 10:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
This week's poll is unequivocal in showing major public support for an end to the settlement foolery.
It shows nothing of the sort. The "settlement foolery" include the Kibutzim of the jordan valley, large "neighborhoods" whose residents are not always event aware they leave in the OPT, and more.
When one considers the settlement project in its totality, not just the freaks of Tapuach, and when one conducts scientific polls with precise questions, it becomes clear that a majority of Jews in Israel consistently reject a two states solution based on rolling back the settlement projects in any degree compatible with a viable Palestinian state.
see
http://jewssansfrontieres.blogspot.com/2009/01/jewish-israeli-public-supports-two.html
June 7, 2009 7:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting stats. Probably will never hear them quoted by MSM.
June 8, 2009 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ha. J Street poll can now take a back seat.
June 12, 2009 10:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm referring to
today's poll
56% support Jewish revenant residents in Judea & Samaria
June 12, 2009 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink