The Specter That Haunts the Dems
Without a doubt, Arlen Specter's switcheroo makes sense for him. Yes, it's a tribute to the shrinking base of the Republican Party. I gather that the Dems lack a can't-miss candidates of their own to throw into the Senate race of '10.
Even this big-tenter is not thrilled that another anti-EFCA vote hops into the big Democratic tent. I wonder if Dem bosses (that's Fast Eddie) have procured a promise that a Dem Specter will vote with Senate Dems on cloture, and reconciliation, to weaken the filibuster. Even if so, I wonder what such a promise is worth.
I hate to spoil the party, but a boost for the Bayh-Nelson-Lincoln-Pryor-Landrieu wing of the Democrats where something better ought to have been possible strikes me as a decidedly mixed blessing.
A cheer and a half, then. Maybe one-and-three-quarters.
OK a couple of things. Specter was for EFCA before he was against it for political reasons. Next, he really cannot switchback again with out really looking like a pure political opportunist. ( I know ) However, he doesn't need to, all he has to do is flip on cloture and EFCA gets passed with 50 votes. This would be a win win for him.
April 28, 2009 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
He said last night he wouldn't vote for cloture on EFCA.
April 29, 2009 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. I'll take the cloture vote, but it's hard to warm up to anyone whom rubberstamped 95% of the failed Reagan/Bush era.
April 28, 2009 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
...and when can we finally seat Al?
April 28, 2009 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
You must not be a big fan of Reid and Pelosi then....
April 28, 2009 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Surely they've opposed more than 5% of it over the years... ;^)
April 28, 2009 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
a very mixed blessing indeed. in fact, had specter not switched, and been beaten by a troll RW GOPer in this overall political climate, we might have had someone from the 'Democratic wing of the Democratic Party' -- as Howard Dean in an erstwhile incarnation put it -- in the Senate in his stead.
Here are some issues the press should grill Specter (whose characterization in the movie JFK by Garrison(Kostner) I find compelling) on:
Climate Change
Health Care plans
EFCA (already probably a lost cause w/him)
Openness to further stimulus plans
etc
One way to look at the situation is that, for a soul devoted to opposing authentic progressive politics at every turn, throughout his career, this is a strategic retreat to what is now the key battleground -- between the Al From/Clinton/Ferraro etc Democrats and the Lamont/Boxer/Mel King/Serrano/Kucinich Democrats. (There are also some who straddle the divide (Obama, leaning towards the Clinton side, at least for now, and now Dean) and fakers in the progressive wing (Frank). Specter coming over should be seen for what it is -- reinforcement NOT for Democrats battling the GOP so much as for Al From Democrats battling Lamonters. (As a socialist pragmatic enough to have voted for the Democrats, not only in 08 but in 04 and 00, and even in 96 and 92, I strongly favor the strength of the Lamont wing; I insist that progressive leftists who otherwise frequently have their heads up their rears make a bid at the mass base for those grassroots Lamont Democrats, uniting them in opposition not just to particular wars but to imperialism, to support for a unified progressive alternative economic plan, and for a really vigorous greenhouse gas policy, which 80% reduction in GHGs by 2050 is NOT).
It might seem that this is a minority plank, even within the Democratic Party, but over time, the possibilities for progressives increase, IF WE WILL ONLY SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY EVEN IN THE FACE OF UNDERGROUND REPRESSION
April 28, 2009 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed, I am wary of trojan horse DINOs. I feel we just lost a big pick up opportunity. Just more Center right BS.
April 28, 2009 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
trojan horse DINOs
Would you trade for getting universal health through in June as opposed to post October 15 on a reconciliation motion? Or, maybe cap 'n trade through the Senate as opposed to not until post 2010?
Just askin'.
Not that the good scenario is guaranteed, but it seems possible--also, Dems will save a ton of money on the Pa. race that can be spent elsewhere.
Plus, look at (the aptly named) Specter; odds on he snuffs right after the election and we get a different dem replacement...
April 29, 2009 5:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have to believe any reasonably competent Dem could have beat Toomey. Although it is Pennsylvania. You remember the famous old joke, "Pennsylvania is Alabama, bordered by Philadelphia and Pittsburgh."
April 28, 2009 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
My concern is over the possibility of a primary defeated Arlen leading to the specter of another Lieberman.
April 28, 2009 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
AdAb, you're a pretty sharp pencil. Surely, you don't believe Specter would have moved without assurances from the Godfather (Rendell) with regard to the Democratic primary. I'm pretty certain that detail was part of the negotiations.
With Easy Ed (and, by extension, the PA Democratic Party) behind him, Specter won't have to worry much about a primary challenge...especially since Rendell himself would likely be the strongest candidate against Specter.
April 28, 2009 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
For those lamenting this switch, you should keep a few things in mind.
(1) Specter would have been favored over any Democrat in the state not named Ed Rendell. And Rendell has given no (as in zip, zilch, zero) sign that he's interested in running.
In fact, Ben Smith over at Politico has turned up Rendell - on *video* - promising Specter an unopposed primary if he switched.
(2) The best chance of getting Specter (R-PA) out was via the primary. And he was looking at some tough primary numbers. However, Toomey's own candidacy came with a problem: Peg Luksik, another wingnut, is running. That would at least somewhat fracture the winger coalition, making it harder for Toomey to beat Specter.
Now, Toomey becomes the favorite in the Republican primary - though this very prospect might motivate PA GOP leaders to find some moderate - ANY moderate - to run against him, lest the general election be a foregone conclusion.
(3) This is NOT a lost pickup by ANY means. Specter's defection is the dingleberry on top of the moose-pie sundae Republicans have been making for the past 8.5 years. Now, if we can get Franken seated before summer's end, reconciliation won't even be necessary on the fall's big budget battles. That's very important politically.
Frankly, I think this makes Democrats' jobs a LOT easier all the way around. The DSCC doesn't need to pump money into the race, Specter's clout transfers to the caucus immediately, and the Republicans are left to stammer angrily in front of FOX cameras. I see it as a win all the way around.
One last thought. I strongly opposed keeping Joe Lieberman in the fold - to the point where I wrote Bob Casey, imploring him to vote against. However, with Specter's move, I have to say that retaining Lieberman in the caucus was pretty good.
April 28, 2009 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Boyd Reed--you seem to be the only person among the TPM bloggers today that actually understands politics.
Getting Specter is HUGE.
April 28, 2009 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's huge for the same old boys (and girls) in the same old club making the same old deals for the same old establishment and it will have the same old results.
April 28, 2009 9:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
bluebell--you seem to be the only person among the TPM bloggers today that actually understands politics.
April 30, 2009 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
For liberals, it would have been much better if Specter stayed Republican and lost the primary giving a real Democrat a strong chance to win. But . . . from a political perspective this is fabulous news for the Democrats and it's terribly demoralizing for the Republicans. If Specter's defection turns out to be infectious and Snowe and Collins follow his lead, the Democrats will have won a giant victory over the Republicans. Not sure that's good for real liberalism (the Democrats are already unreliable supporters of liberal positions without three more DINOs in their ranks), but it's a crushing victory for the Democratic party over the increasingly irrelevant and looney Limbaugh land that passes for an opposition party.
April 28, 2009 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Collins and Snowe may have a different equation in ME. They don't face as many urban voters & Collins cruised to her win last fall. In PA there were many registrations switched from R to D last year - Specter's voters. He was Primary-vulnerable, even before supporting the stimulus.
Which R's remain livid about. Real shame, that... ;^)
I find comical, several aspects of the current GOP muckmuck. You had to laugh at those Teabag dolts sent out there 4/15 by Wingnut radio. Prior to that, they had made the strategic choice to stonewall the stimulus and cart out the same red herrings they'd used on Bill's '93 budget. The polling blew up on them. (Mitch, with millions on the verge of financial ruin after failed Trickle-Down policies you rubberstamped, uhm - we'd like some action now. OK?)
And then you think about their ideological black hole, named Ronald Reagan. They can't get out of it, and it renders them void and bankrupt going forward. They have to abandon his Cut Taxes / Cut Regulation platform - that dog is dead for about 75% of America now. Pretty much only Teabaggers remain, clinging to it in denial.
But they can't abandon it. They just can't!
;^)
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April 29, 2009 12:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
I keep having this image of a sinking ship running through my head . . .
April 28, 2009 9:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
The RNC Titanic, of course...
I used that moniker a lot hammering R's on the news sites the last few years, since the GOP wheels began to come off - 2005 by my estimation. This Bud for you, Cindy Sheehan... ;^)
April 29, 2009 12:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think it is fantastic news!!! What a body blow for the GOP. He had to be one of the longest tenured GOP senators in office. He was one of the 3 remaining northeastern moderates. I might not have agreed with him on everything but he has never been an ideologue and was one of the few Republicans left on the national stage who had my respect...especially now that Lincoln Chafee is gone.
He has been for EFCA in the past and I hope he decides to support EFCA again. He is pro-choice as opposed to his fellow democratic senator from PA who is pro-life. In fact I think he might be more liberal than Senator Casey on a whole host of issues...
It really is about so much more than how he will vote on any individual issue. He was a high profile, nationally known republican leader...and he is now a democrat. The message it sends to America speaks volumes. The GOP has for all intents and purposes been reduced to a marginalized regional fringe party of the far right which is out of touch with the 80% of the American people.
Welcome to the political left Senator Specter...even if we don't always agree on every issue at least you are part of a movement looking to make progress for the better rather than 'conserve' all the worst of the past.
April 28, 2009 10:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Based on what I've heard, the strongest Democrat in Pennsylvania is Auditor General Jack Wagner.
Wagner originally appeared to be lining up for the governor's race -- as was Pat Toomey before Specter voted for the stimulus -- but there was speculation that Wagner could be a senate candidate.
After today's events, I doubt it.
The others in the mix have very regional support but very little name recognition.
Now, there is speculation that GOP state leaders are turning to former governor and homeland security director Tom Ridge as a possible challenger to Specter.
Like Specter, Ridge is a social moderate and won elections in 1995 and 1999 when PA was a 50/50 state.
Today, PA is closer to a 55/45 state favoring the Dems.
April 28, 2009 11:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sure Ridge's celly is burning up at this very moment. But I don't think he'll jump in, for several reasons.
(1) Ridge is VERY moderate - in fact, almost as moderate as Specter himself. There really isn't a lot of political difference between them, so a negative campaign would be harder to run.
(2) After serving as governor and as DHS secretary, what I hear is that Ridge really likes retired life, and doesn't especially want to go back to Washington. Of course, the general election wouldn't exactly be a shoo-in either, and he'd be starting behind the 8-ball on fundraising.
(3) PA is probably not quite 55-45 Dem. I'd say we're more like 53-47. But that's a LOT different than it was when Ridge won his second term in Harrisburg. The climate really doesn't favor Republicans.
Having said that, I was kinda hoping for a big-boy battle in PA in 2010 (was thinking maybe Specter-Rendell; now hoping for Specter-Ridge). Part of *that* is pure economics - Obama and Clinton brought a LOT of business to the state when they were here last April.
April 29, 2009 6:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Arlen Specter has been on my S*** list since he backed Clarence Thomas for Supreme Court Justice, and went on the attack on Anita Hill. Clarence should probably be impeached for perjury during his confirmation hearings.
Specter's change of party is purely opportunistic -- he would lose in the primary if he stayed in the Republican party.
The only good news about this is that it is another sign that the right wing of the Republican party is taking the party down the rat-hole. Too bad some more moderate Republicans do not stand up to the right wing. Even John McCain did not have the courage to stand up to the "base".
April 29, 2009 5:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. I'm pissed about that too now that you bring it up.
Samuel Alito should as well have failed his confirmation, for lying that he didn't know much anymore about touting on his '80's resume to the Reagan admin, about his membership in the bigoted Concerned Alumni of Princeton. Bullsh*t, and the Judiciary Committee knew it.
Still you keep your eye on the ball, which is Progress. You get it however you can manage IMO. You take the switch because it delivers cloture on some future Senate business, that might otherwise get blocked by obstructionist R's. The Party Of No, turned inert. That should get you a few wins...
Poor Mitch! ;^)
April 30, 2009 4:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Specter's defection aside, the real news is that the GOP continues to shrink geographically, demographically and ideologically a la the Whigs. As a life-long lefty I lament the loss of a viable opposition party because it bodes ill for our democracy. Remember, power corrupts.
Unless and until the GOP achieves some more centrist equilibrium it will regress ever further into a nativist, jingoistic and know nothing faction devoid of coherent thinking and rational arguments. And that, my friends, could result in a cycle of hubris and arrogance for the left. The founders knew a thing or two about how to balance competing interests in pursuit of worthy goals through consensus and compromise.
I hope that Specter's patently self-serving epiphany will not serve as a road map for the likes of the Ladies from Maine or Dick Lugar. But on the bright side I marvel at Mitch McConnell's ability to throw Sen. Bunning under the bus albeit soley in the name of expediency.
April 29, 2009 8:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you want opposition, Jacks45, oppose from the left.
April 29, 2009 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Power corrupts, agreed. And yet in the Big Tent, there are always bickering factions.
This reminds me of the Pearl Bailey maxim, being rich was better than being poor... ;^)
The GOP has to divorce Reagan, as I mentioned. But it cannot, relegating them to a future of discredit in the broad electorate. They're clueless about even what has happened, much less what change-up they need to compete. It's comical, like Jethro Bodine was... ;^)
April 30, 2009 5:11 AM | Reply | Permalink