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The mother of all deals

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I arrived in Moscow from Washington highly optimistic, a day after the vigorous, historic handshake between President Medvedev and President Obama in London. I left--after visits with officials and colleagues--more than a bit concerned. My optimism was not based on such cheerful gestures as pushing reset buttons, although such tone-setting steps have their place. I believed that a major deal between the two countries could be made, one based not on identical or even complementary interests of Russia and the United States--but one that would build on profound differences in saliency.

Allow me to explain. When Party A has some things that Party B deeply desires but Party A does not care much about--and Party B has some things Party A keenly wants but Party B is not much invested in, a mother of all deals is plausible. The fact that this notion has some legs became clear when the Obama Administration, which is far from invested in building a missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic while Russia is rather troubled by it, offered (in effect) to trade it in. That is, exchange it for Russia's help in encouraging Iran to give up on its nuclear arming program. As the US sees it, an Iran with nuclear bombs would gravely endanger America's allies (not just Israel but also Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan) if not the United States itself; that is, Iran's nuclear program is highly salient for the US, but Russia seems not to have a great stake in a nuclear armed Iran, to put it mildly.

In addition, it seemed that another such exchange could be built into the mother of all deals: The Obama Administration's interest in expanding the membership of NATO in the foreseeable future is far from salient, while this issue matters a great deal to Russia. At the same time, the United States is much interested in accelerating the Nunn-Lugar programs that aim to neutralize fissile material from which terrorists can make nuclear bombs and further improve the security of tactical nuclear arms, matters which Russia has little reason to oppose. Voila, the conditions of a major deal seem to be in place.

Why did I leave less optimistic, much less optimistic? Both sides seem to have decided to pile on a large number of additional items, some of which have a rather different profile of needs and interests than those mentioned above, including items that gravely concern both sides, especially the quantity and quality of nuclear arms to be maintained. In addition, Russia seems keenly interested in changes in trade and economic policy, such as the additional opening of American markets to Russian products and membership in the WTO and OECD, issues that are particularly difficult to deal with currently given the recent tendency to increase rather than lower national barriers to trade. Half a dozen additional items have been raised, ranging from the incentives Russia seems to have provided to Kyrgyzstan which led it to move to close a major supply line for American troops in Afghanistan to helping Russia secure its "territorial integrity". (Still other points were raised in a recent editorial by President Medvedev in the Washington Post.)

The escalation of ambitions and expectations are by no means one-sided. President Obama's trademark is thinking big and moving on many fronts at once. Up to a point, one cannot but admire such a drive not just to remake the United States internally, but also to build a new global architecture, with a partnership with Russia as a key element. However, such ambitions become problematic when they pay little mind to matters of relative saliency and respective pace.

Thus, it is rather obvious that the more items that are thrown into the mix, the more complex the negotiations will become and the less likely they are to succeed, especially as they involve items of similar rather than different saliency. Even more detrimental is the fact that some of these processes and policies have internal clocks that run at very different speeds.

This is especially true when one considers Iran's nuclear arming program, which may well cross a red-line within a year, while matters of trade or even those concerning the conflict in Afghanistan have a significantly longer trajectory. It would be much better to focus first on those items that have hard and short deadlines rather than mixing them up with those that do not. Finally, all items that require action by the US Senate--such as approving treaties or changing laws (e.g., Jackson-Vanik)--must be assumed to face a slow journey, even given the Democratic majority.

I have not lost faith in the dawning of a new era in the Russian-American relationship. I am especially encouraged to find mountains of goodwill (mixed with some residue of feelings of distrust). I just hope that matters that need to be and can be settled in short order will not be undermined by those that cannot and those that must be allowed time to be worked out.

Amitai Etzioni is Professor of International Relations at The George Washington University. For more discussion, go here, and see his book: Security First: For a Muscular, Moral Foreign Policy (Yale, 2007) Email: icps@gwu.edu


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I know this might sound unreasonable, but I think it would actually help stabilize the region if Iran had a viable nuclear weapon.

I also think Iran and the US would have to go through a long process of raproachment before you even begin talking about disarmament. You've got these bitter enemies with grievances stretching back to 1979 or even 1953. Relations are ice cold - 50 below zero, and then we're going to have a Spring thaw in say two years? I just don't think you can go that fast.

Think about what a nuke would do for Iran's standing. If you were Ahmedinajad, basically what's the downside? If you get nukes, suddenly your in the "club" of movers and shakers. So what if they get some trade deals or are "welcomed into the family of nations" or whatever.

I see the 'upsides' to caving into Obama as exceedingly limited - especially for Iran elites who are making the decisions.

The most damning argument Iran elites have is the example of the US and Israel. Especially Netanyahu with his saber rattling. If you have a (VIABLE - not N. Korea 'pretend') nuke I mean no one is even going to talk about bombing you - let alone do it.

And what would have happened in 2003 if Iraq had nukes?

To put it in Dr. Etzioni's words, Iran has something it wants VERY badly, and the US is offering it things ("Become a member of the family of nations!") that it has proven it can easily live without.

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Thats a thought provoking comment. I would like to see more posts exploring the ramifications of a nuclear armed Iran.

I'm not on board but you make a good point that it might bring some stability to the region. M.A.D. was certainly successful in largely maintaining peace throughout the Cold war. In the early 1990's a simular thinking seemed to come into play in the world allowing Pakistan a nuclear weapons program to counterbalance India's program. Not that that has completely been successful, but like Iran, Pakistan is a very complicated political figure.



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Thats a thought provoking comment. I would like to see more posts exploring the ramifications of a nuclear armed Iran.

I'm not on board but you make a good point that it might bring some stability to the region. M.A.D. was certainly successful in largely maintaining peace throughout the Cold war. In the early 1990's a simular thinking seemed to come into play in the world allowing Pakistan a nuclear weapons program to counterbalance India's program. Not that that has completely been successful, but like Iran, Pakistan is a very complicated political figure.



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I guess I'm not saying I'm 'for' a nuclear Iran, but when you look at it from their perspective, it seems like they would be fools to trade the ultimate security trump card ("We will ANIHILATE YOU if you attack us") in return for Most Favored Nation trade status or an autographed basketball from Obama saying "Welcome to the family of nations."

Sure, dropping trade sanctions would help ordinary Iranians quite a bit - but then ordinary Iranians aren't making the decisions.

And US and Israel "sticks" are actually worse than the carrots in the sense that if Netanyahu bombs them, then they can go to the people and say "See! This PROVES we need an A-bomb."

US arguments also come down to a humiliating kind of paternalism ("You Purzians ain't gonna be able to handle nookular weaponz 'cause you ain't got the s'phistication fer it.") that doesn't apply to the much more unstable Pakistan, simply because Pakistan already has a nuke.

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an autographed basketball from Obama saying "Welcome to the family of nations."

What if he signed it in his native Farsi?

If you get some time, do a post-its worth talking about.

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Not to be flip, it's just that if you're trading a genuine national security pillar - and in the context of mid east where you are surrounded by nuclear powers, you're going to want a hell of a lot more than just "good will" to trade away a nuclear weapon.

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Oh, I don't find that flip at all. I fully agree with your sentiments.

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This article contains a bald-faced lie:

"This is especially true when one considers Iran's nuclear arming program, which may well cross a red-line within a year, while matters of trade or even those concerning the conflict in Afghanistan have a significantly longer trajectory. "

What nuclear arming program?

The professor has confused Israel's nuclear program with Iran's. Zionists frequently make this mistake.

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Slightly off the subject, but I wonder if anyone else gets the impression that Medvedev is starting to exercise a bit more power than we anticipated he would have, or that Putin intended to grant him?

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The issue of Iran and nukes is, er, overblown.

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