Why Is Lockheed Throwing in the Towel on the F-22?
Budget analysts across the political spectrum expected Lockheed Martin to put on a full-court press in Congress to reverse the recent decision by Secretary of Defense Robert Gates to cancel its lucrative, $350-million-per-plane F-22 combat aircraft. But now the company's chief financial officer says the company will accept the Pentagon's decision and "move on." Has the military-industrial complex lost its nerve, or is there something else going on here?
First, it should be noted that the decison by Gates not only to end the F-22 program but to cancel or sharply cut back more than a half dozen other programs marks the first time since the end of the Cold War that any administration has made such sweeping cuts in military procurement and R&D. Progressives should support these cuts while pointing out others that would also make sense.
But before we give Lockheed Martin a medal for accepting the reality that Gates and the Air Force aren't likely to budge on this issue (and therefore will not help them lobby for a reprieve), it should be pointed out that the new Pentagon budget offers plenty of good news for them to counterbalance the F-22 cut, from accerated development of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter to more C-130 and C-5 transport planes, to an increase in funding for the "Littoral combat ship." A company that brings in $26 billion a year from the Pentagon has plenty of options.
As for the Lockheed Martin work force, many of them work at the same factories that will benefit frrom the F-35 and transport plane increases. So much for the company's fraudulent claim that "95,000 jobs" were on the line if the F-22 was canceled.
The larger question is why -- given the cuts announced by Gates -- the Obama Pentagon budget is still coming in at 2 to 3% more than the record post-World War levels reached during the last year of the Bush administration. The biggest reasons involve spending on people -- mililtary health care, pay raises for troops, and increasing the Army and Marines by tens of thousands of personnel. These are expensive propositions, but other than the troops increases -- which are only necessary if we intend to fight future Iraq-style wars -- its better to spend on miiltary pay and benefits than on weapons we don't need.
So where is our best hope for achieving actual reductions in military spending? We need to see real reductions in our $12 billion per month commitment in Iraq, or overall miitary spending (the regular Pentagon budget plus special allocations for Iraq and Afghanistan) will not come down in any meaningful way. So, while applauding the weapons cuts, we also need to revive the debate about getting out of Iraq sooner rather than later -- a topic that has been missing in action in the press as the economic mess and Afghanistan/Pakistan have grabbed the headlines.




















Mr. Hartung,
re: "sweeping cuts in military procurement"
Do we know that this is the case? Do you have the numbers, year-to-year?
April 23, 2009 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where is our best hope for achieving savings?
The first and best idea would be to do what businesses, state, and local governments often do which is simply tell the managers that they need to cut their spending by X percent within a certain time frame and force them to identify and get rid of what is not necessary. Announce to the military that the Pentagon budget will be reduced by 50% in the next 4 years and have the Generals come up with what should be cut. That would take us back to a pre 9/11 level of insane and obscene military spending.
Some specific items that could be cut?
End the war in Iraq as soon as possible. No residual force left in country at all.
Cancel every star wars and star wars related program. Completely abandon the idea of a missile shield and start getting serious about eliminating nuclear weapons, getting nuclear proliferation under control and securing supplies of all the materials required to build nukes around the world.
Cancel every weapons and R & D program that is not immediately necessary for defending the United States.
Stop the practice of "improving" every existing weapons system to the point it becomes nothing but a gold plated boondoggle.
Completely abandon the idea of American empire and focus our military efforts on defending the United States instead of our imperial interests.
These ideas are just for starters, but the goal should be a mimimum 50% reduction in the existing military budget in a relatively brief period of time. There is no threat on this planet that justifies anything remotely close to the wasteful and obscene amounts of money being given to the military to spend on destroying society through war. It's absolutely nuts.
April 23, 2009 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Close every base outside the United States and its territories. That would put a serious dent in the beast's budget.
April 23, 2009 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even if was just half it would be a big help in more ways than one.
April 23, 2009 6:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zeno,
correct. Imagine bringing all or most of our troops home and stationing them here. The boost to the local economies would be impressive.
April 23, 2009 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
We already have all those rotting bases we riffed in the 1990s. I say use them as a way to perfect green renovations on older buildings and communities. A win-win for everyone involved.
April 24, 2009 8:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Great post. I think we could and should shut down most of our overseas bases. We need to adopt a Treaty of Westphalia type approach to foreign policy, do no harm, seek win-win outcomes between sovereign nations. I do think that is premature to think nuclear weapons are going to disappear any time soon. Would I like to live in a n-weapon-free world? I would and I'd like that for my daughter (and her generation, and those to come) most especially. But I recognize that there are dangerous viruses loose in the world, of violent extremists of all ilks as well as nation-states that question our real intentions, following a very checkered, sometimes positive, but mostly negative imperialistic actions (wars) all around the world in the post-war period. We've had a policy of "blooding our troops", continuous wars that keep a live, institutional knowledge of warfare logistics, tactics and strategy (haven't done too well with the third item since WWII) instilled in the military organizations. The logic of the national security state launched by Truman and the ever-widening maw of the military-industral-congressional-presidential complex has meant an inexorable expansion in resources, far exceeding our real defense needs.
We should draw back on all that and partner with the other major economies of the world, like China, Russia, India, Japan, etc. on creating a new, equitable world monetary system, one committed to righting past wrongs. We will all need to rebuild our own economies, but we should commit to great projects, like infrastructure investment of power systems and railway links in Africa to help it develop its agricultural capabilities to feed itself and more. The colonialism and imperialism that FDR intended should end at the end of WWII, did not end and took other forms because Truman betrayed FDR's intention, and put us back in bed with the decaying British Empire, except now we were the bully-boys on the beat instead of the Brits. Along with Africa, Ibero America has had more than its share of unwanted European and American interventionism. Again, great projects to promote their economic and social development. We should build a world-wide high speed rail system connecting us all together. Think of all the high paying, high skilled jobs required to upgrade the infrastructure of the entire world.
This is how we build ourselves out of our present existential crises. Stop the foolish wars in SW Asia, deal with the nihilistic terrorists and then get busy building and better, more just world.
April 24, 2009 12:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
This comment needs to be a blog all on its own. Lots of food for thought in here. Strongly seconded.
April 24, 2009 8:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks. I had a glass of the grape last night and was feeling a bit elegaic. Perhaps its seems naive and simplistic to say that our choices are so binary, but really, it is time for humanity to grow out of our childhood and mature. War is an outmoded way to settle our differences. In the 30's we faced a similar economic breakdown crisis due to letting the financier oligarchy run wild, unbounded. Then, many on Wall Street and the City of London backed fascism and austerity as solutions, as do their ancestors today. We have to break the power of these types permanently in order to peacefully develop the planet for all humanity's benefit. Otherwise we face insane resource wars, pandemics and massive depopulation; in short, a new dark age. I don't think Obama sees things in such stark terms, and his policy of bailing out these predators, if continued, will consume us all. I think he has the right intentions, but having odious characters like Larry Summers craft our economic policy is self-dooming to the nation and the world
April 24, 2009 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
On Chicago Public Radio's "Worldview" last week there was an expert who was decrying the fact that the F-35 wasn't eliminated.
His take was that the f-35 is a kind of white elephant, originally concieved to replace several different types of aircraft and 'save money' (haha) - but the fact of it's being a compromise of widely varying fighters/bombers it doesn't do any task particularly well.
April 23, 2009 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) will soon make manned aircraft obsolete.
Pilots are now coming out of undergraduate pilot training to assignments as UAV pilots. The number of UAV pilots will skyrocket by 2012, outnumbered only by F-16 pilots, according to the Air Force Times.
The MQ-9 Reaper UAV has a 950-shaft-horsepower turboprop engine, and with two 1,000 pound (450 kilogram) external fuel tanks and a thousand pounds of munitions has an endurance of 42 hours. Try that with a pilot, who is also sensitive to G-loads that don't affect the Reaper.
In 2008 the New York Air National Guard 174th Fighter Wing began to transition from F-16 piloted planes to MQ-9 Reaper drones, which are capable of remote controlled or autonomous flight, becoming the first all-robot attack squadron.
Retired U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff General T. Michael Moseley said, "We've moved from using UAVs primarily in intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance roles before Operation Iraqi Freedom, to a true hunter-killer role with the Reaper.
The Reaper costs about $6m, a fraction of the cost of manned aircraft.--Wiki
But the Pentagon corporate welfare program must be sustained. Congress-critters depend on the money flow for profits, contributions and employment in their districts.
April 23, 2009 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was under the impression that one of the big benefits was that they DIDN'T have to train pilots like in the Airforce to fly the UAVs.
I thought they were taking 19 year olds and basically transfering their video game skills to a real life warmaking function.
April 24, 2009 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
When WWII ended, we had a huge war industry, which was soon decimated. Then N. Korea did that industry a favor by invading S. Korea. From that day on the war industry, renamed defense industry to make it more palatable, has grown. But, even that wasn't enough for the war industry, so we quickly began another war to use up most of the accumulated supplies and generate a need for more and better supplies. When that ended, after tens of thousands of Americans were sacrificed to keep the war industry profitable, still more, but smaller "wars" were generated to maintain the industry.
But, then the USSR folded, and we learned that it was more like a feral house cat than a tiger, the war industry was in trouble. Enter George Bush, and you can finish the story to date very easily.
I suspect that more lives are in greater danger from opposing the war industry than from our current enemy - them terrarsts.
April 23, 2009 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well said hoppy
April 23, 2009 6:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
We get in wars because we can.
How have we benefitted from the following wars;
Korea, Vietnam, Grenada, Panama, Desert Storm, Afghanistan, Iraq?
What would we have lost by not engaging in those wars?
April 23, 2009 7:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
It depends on who "we" refers to. If "we" refers to the war industry executives and big stock holders, the answer should be obvious. If it refers to the former government employees who "retired" to lucrative jobs with that war industry, the answer is equally obvious.
April 24, 2009 10:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
hoppy,
all of the above and the 'ready to send others to war' gang on the right.
People like;
Dick, 'I support the war I just don't want to fight in it' Cheney.
or,
Sean, 'I support the Troops I just don't want to be one' Hannity.
You get the idea. :)
April 24, 2009 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
The military industrial complex fills the role of the monastery in today's society. [Except they had the additional advantage of not reproducing themselves.]
You have hundreds of thousands of the highstrung, most brilliant people happily puttering away with their computers, making drawings, calculating, building prototypes, testing, documenting. They are kept out of contact with regular society and kept from interfering with the regular leadership class that runs things.
[Don't you just hate the smart-alecks pointing out the flaws in your plans?]
So what would you do if you had no place for them?
They're too smart to just sit around, they'd be up to mischief of some kind.
Universities would fail from lack of demand for science and engineering enrollment. We'd have way too many people with math skills. We'd have to send green-card workers back to where they came from.
Another point, if we weren't demonstrating our military power every so often, we'd soon have hoards of Canadians, closely followed by Siberians, crossing our borders.
April 23, 2009 11:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hoards of Canadians?? Now you have done it! I may never get through a night without nightmares again. Is hockey the advance wave?
April 24, 2009 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
As Garrison Kiellor calls them "Icebacks."
April 24, 2009 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
F-22s.
"Also, the other U.S. advanced stealth alternative, the F-22 Raptor, is not available on the export market per Congressional law. Even in the unlikely event that this law was revoked by the Obama administration, production on the aircraft is set to end in 2011, thus causing its unit price-tag - already estimated at $146 million in 2008 dollars - to escalate even higher and making its cost even more prohibitive than the JSF."
http://www.defpro.com/news/details/6865/
April 24, 2009 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
The following is from MarketWatch Week-end, on F-22/Raptor crashes:
"It's too early to determine if the crash will have an impact on production or the government's decision to purchase more of the high-tech planes, said Paul Nisbet, an analyst with JSA Research. A redesign is possible if the investigation concludes there were systemic problems with the aircraft as opposed to pilot error."
It appears that even though the plane came into service in December 2007, Lockeed continued to charge the Defense Department for R & D. Perhaps they are aware that there is a design flaw, and "a redesign is possible."
I remember during MACH ONE testing, they discovered that at a certain velocity, the air passing over the wings and the air passing under the wings intersected right over the flaps and ailerons, a happenstance that froze the controls, hence, causing the pilot to lose the plane. That "design flaw" was rectified in that the wings were redesigned to allow the above-wing and below-wing airflow intersections to occur beyond the wing control surfaces, which solved the problem. And MACH ONE was achieved thereafter.
This is from F-22Fighter.com"
"The "fins" of the aircraft are divided into two types: the horizontal (which control vertical movement) and the vertical (which control the horizontal movement). The horizontal fins (located at the rear of the aircraft) not only provide the plane with extra maneuverability etc... , but also act as a heat shield for the exhaust of the engines, so the thermal trace of the F22 is at a minimum. The vert. fins are angled in the similar fashion of the F-22's body, to help reduce its radar signal. These also contain many internal antennas inside the body of the fin itself, as a way to conceal them and help maintain the stealth abilities of the aircraft."
It is possible that there is a design flaw in the tail embodiment where "the angled vertical fins" are too thin to sustain draft and resistance to airflow vortices being created in the tail end of the aircraft. Perhaps these vertical fins ought to be at 90 degree angle rather than being "angled in the similar fashion of he F-22's body."
I keep remembering the initial problem with MACH ONE test flights and wonder whether an analogous problem might exist with the F-22-Raptor, at the tail end embodiment.
The website continues:
"The F22 Raptor’s airframe is comprised mainly of four (4) large “chunks”, or pieces that are produced by separate companies (see illustration below for part and manufacturer)." Those four companies are Pratt & Whitney, Boeing, Lockheed-Marietta, Lockheed, Fortworth. Could it be that these four different companies needed to coordinate their design blueprints or drawings in order to finetune aerodynamic specifications for exactness, precision and performance in the finished products?
Indeed, if these crashes are not due to human error, then perhaps they are due to engineering and design flaws, such as aerodynamics and materials integration.
April 25, 2009 8:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Correction: "rather than being "angled in the similar fashion of the F-22's body."
Thanks. LEO
April 25, 2009 8:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Correction: "...December 2007, Lockheed continued to charge..."
Thanks. LEO
April 25, 2009 9:10 PM | Reply | Permalink