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Connect the Dots: Cognitive Dissonance
1. A report that 75% of Jewish Israelis, and 40% of Arab Israelis, wish Israel to be a member of the European Union.
2. A report of an economic rescue plan, the major pillar of which is "increasing exports."3. A report by the Israel Export Institute that 10% of 400 polled exporters received order cancellation notices this year, because of Israel's assault on Gaza. (About half of Israel's exports are "high-tech" and about a third go to Europe; most Israeli agricultural produce go to Europe; Israel plays in European sports leagues--need I go on?)
4. A report that the EU refuses to upgrade its ties to Israel, so long as the Netanyahu government will impede a two-state solution.
5. Reports that Netanyahu is telling Obama he will not proceed with any peace process until Iran renounces its nuclear program and recognizes Israel as a "Jewish" state.
Question: Explain the term "Economic Implosion."
Extra Credit: Define "Paper Tiger."
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China's exports are down 27%. GM's sales are down 48%. Spain's unemployment is at record levels. The British pound is teetering. Because of Gaza? Come on man, grow up. We're in a world wide depression that has very little to do with Israel's actions, or the Arab-Israeli dispute.
Cognitive dissonance? You don't know anything about it since you don't know anything about cognition.
April 23, 2009 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
you are misreading. he is stating that, considering that we are in a global recession, the israel economy will take a greater hit not only because of the global economic slowdown but also because european countries are canceling israeli contracts due to the gaza bloodbath. since netanyahu is knuckle dragging the two-state process, the europeans will have justification to downgrade economic and political interactions further weakening the israeli economy.
you are seeing in avishai's post your own ethnocentric, and angry, optics.
got my shield up. shoot your shit.
April 23, 2009 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
"the israel economy will take a greater hit"
That's a factual claim. Has it? Ireland, formerly a high tech center, is now in the same class as Iceland. Is Israel there yet? Is Israeli unemployment at Spanish levels? At Iranian levels? Where's the proof?
April 23, 2009 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
israel is not there yet.
if current negative political trends continue vis a vis europe the israeli economy will be under greater duress due to a reduction of euro imports, more so than it would be just from the global economic slowdown. euro imports account for about half of israel's economy.
there are two stressors: 1) the global slowdown and 2) europe cutting back imports due to political disagreements. the first stressor has legs and the second stressor is just beginning and can be averted if netanyahu makes meaningful, not empty gestures, towards the two-state process.
what will israel's economy be like if there is a global economic pick up but the europeans significantly cut back imports and there are BDS protocols in place by western nations due to israel's refusal to advance the peace process and continue its apartheid policies?
in south africa, the economic boycott resulted in capital flight and inflation reaching 12-15% annually.
April 23, 2009 11:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
In response to the global depression all nations are severely tempted to adopt protectionist policies (that's a real problem recognized by every knowledgeable person who doesn't wish to see a repeat of Smoot-Hawley and the gold standard mistakes). Europeans will attempt to disguise protectionism any way they can.
Israelis will have their own responses. Adaptation to new conditions is the name of the game. Some will succeed, many won't.
Zhabotinsky, in 1923, famously said, in response to Labor's claims, that the Arabs were not a rabble and would not give up their homeland for a promise of a few extra shekels. The same is true of Israelis today. They don't share your view of the "peace process" and will not give up their country because Europeans - who they see as primarily motivated by fear of Muslims rather than moral considerations - deny them a few dollars.
April 23, 2009 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
"They don't share your view of the 'peace process' and will not give up their country"
israeli are not being asked to give up "their country", only the west bank and gaza along the 1967 lines and a sharing of jerusalem. this is the internationally agreed consensus.
April 23, 2009 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
The "international agreed consensus" isn't worth 2 cents.
April 23, 2009 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
# IMF (April WEO) expects global economic activity to contract by 1.3% in 2009 (1.8ppt lower than the 0.5% growth they expected in January) before staging a modest recovery (+1.9%) in 2010. Advanced economies are forecast to contract by 3.8% in 2009, with the U.S. economy shrinking by 2.8% and the euroarea by 4.2%. Emerging and developing economies will see positive growth of 1.6% in 2009, bouncing back to 4.0% in 2010.
# The IMF scaled down its growth outlooks for all major economies and regions since January 2009 and expects global economic activity to be 1.8ppts lower than it did in January (0.5%). and 3ppts less than it expected in November (1.7%). Global GDP growth was 3.75% in 2008 and 5% in 2007.
Go to Roubini's RGE Monitor for the rest of it.
I think modern Lefties don't even rise to the level of ordinary garbage. You're toxic waste.
April 23, 2009 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
no need for petulance or animosity. you can make your case without being a prick. wait, that's not possible for modern right wingnuts. my bad.
April 23, 2009 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
"no need for petulance or animosity. you can make your case without being a prick."
True. I'd be better served if I held my temper. Unfortunately, I'm no Daniel Patrick Moynihan and certainly no saint.
April 23, 2009 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right now you're hovering around "lower life form" - care to try for fungus?
April 23, 2009 11:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
ordinary - I just returned from Israel last week and your attitude would fit right in with most of the people I spent time with. Are you ready to tell the world to F#@K Off?
If Netanyahu persists in delaying or sabotaging or just paying lip service to a two state solution, the economic pain for Israel might increase substantially. Even significantly short of South Africa style sanctions Israel could be hurt badly. Remember it's a very small country and it would not take much to tip the economy into the negatives. The diaspora would keep Israel going for awhile but not indefinitely.
I would suggest you get off your high horse vitrol for the sake of Israel's future. You are not going to win friends and influence people with that kind of anger. Peace will be difficult enough without Israeli friends like you.
April 23, 2009 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
"your attitude would fit right in with most of the people I spent time with."
Glad to hear I'm not alone. Never thought I was.
"Are you ready to tell the world to F#@K Off?"
It's not the whole world but...yes.
"might increase substantially...could be hurt badly"
Might, could, etc, etc. The world is a dangerous place. Always has been, always will be.
"Peace will be difficult enough without Israeli friends like you."
Better friends like me than friends like you.
April 23, 2009 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
are you an actual Israel supporter?
April 25, 2009 4:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
At the moment the European Union is unlikely to expand to include Israel or other Mid-East countries.
In fact, expansion of the EU may be pointless, and better integration within the Eurozone may be the correct focus of attention.
The Darling budget of the UK ensures that the UK will not meet the "convergence criteria" for decades. This makes their Maastricht Treaty exemption essentially permanent, and the UK cannot become economically integrated with the rest of Europe.
At some point, the 16 member Euro Group may effectively supersede the far more unweidly and uncooperative 27 member EU.
April 23, 2009 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Anecdotal evidence @ #3:
In Berkeley, CA (which could be considered an American outpost of EU mentality), a leading grocery store tried to sell Israeli hothouse/organic tomatoes. (For non-gourmets, this combo is rare and well prized by foodies.) And they rotted on the shelf. Other reasons for this aside from political might be: 1) the 'buy local' movement, and 2 $4.50/lb! (both important to myself). These factors aside, the quality of the produce (they were the most beautiful tomatoes I'd seen in a while) would ordinarily trumped them enough to sell SOME produce. But the label "Israeli," contemporaneous to the Gaza misadventure, doomed them to the food bank and/or fertilizer. Enough repetitions in Europe and Israel will feel it.
April 23, 2009 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
From the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights:
Everyone is equal before the law . . .
Any discrimination based on any ground such as sex, race, colour, ethnic or social origin, genetic features, language, religion or belief, political or any other opinion, membership of a national minority, property, birth, disability, age or sexual orientation shall be prohibited.
Consonant with the idea of a "Jewish" state?
April 24, 2009 7:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
No, but my book explains that the charter is compatible with a Hebrew Republic.
April 24, 2009 8:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Though I've only read bits and pieces of it, I can confidently and strongly recommend Bernard Avishai's Hebrew Republic.
I realize that in conversations with Purple State and others I tend to go on about the concept of "national self-determination." But it should perhaps be reiterated that I do not understand national self-determination in the manner of laissez faire statecraft. Indeed, no nation is entirely self-sustained nor can it get very far, if even survive at all, without alliances and cooperation with other nations. Meanwhile, it is as true for Israel as any given nation that diplomatic, economic and cultural exchanges can certainly be pursued in the interest of diminishing the chances for war and other lethal competitions, without diminishing its own national heritage and character.
April 24, 2009 9:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bar: Self determination presumes a certain level of cultural success....but it is not self-justifying. America has an Anglo-Saxon predominant culture, but you don't have to be an Anglo-Saxon to thrive here. President Obama anyone?
If Israel can only keep its Jewish character by fiddling with the numbers of Jews, that tacitly admits that Jewish culture cannot survive competition. And Jewish culture most certainly can. America is filled with Jews quite happily thriving in a predominantly non-Jewish culture.
And if the Jewish character of Israel can only be preserved by violence, then what value is it?
A Jewish state may be a laudable goal, but not by any means. Exceptionalism in all forms is a trap.
April 24, 2009 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
mythbuster,
I reject the premise that the state of Israel's Jewish character can only be preserved by violence as firmly as I reject the notion that an independent Palestine can only be established through the violent elimination of Israel.
April 24, 2009 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
You say: "I reject the premise that the state of Israel's Jewish character can only be preserved by violence as firmly as I reject the notion that an independent Palestine can only be established through the violent elimination of Israel.'
Apples and oranges. An inconvenient truth about the necessity of violence to the Zionist project is reality of settlements. When Palestinians are conquered and collaborationist--i.e., Abbas--settlements continue. They continue with peace. They continue with strife. But they continue and continue and continue.
On National Public Radio this morning, they had a report on how Israeli border police showed up at an Arab home in East Jerusalem and gave the family five minutes to collect their possessions before demolishing their home.
Think about that: Five minutes.
What a revealing incident.
April 24, 2009 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course, for the lack of detail provided, the incident may reveal a sickness in Israeli society. Nothing about your report contradicts anything I have argued here. Americans don't have to travel very far to understand that social progress nearly always lags behind political (ie, judicial or legislative) progress. As the best of American ideals are more often (albeit not always) found in case law than on the streets, examples like that of the Kaadan case in Israel may be every bit as revealing as the implication in your example of insecurity run amok.
April 25, 2009 9:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Possibly, but only if this Hebrew republic allows its Arabs an equal hand in shaping the future character of the republic, whether that character be Hebrew, Arab, or something new and unique emerging from the combination of these cultures.
April 24, 2009 10:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
A report by the Israel Export Institute that 10% of 400 polled exporters received order cancellation notices this year, because of Israel's assault on Gaza.
It's hard to know if such cancellations really have been due to this year's Gaza events.
It's probably true that a steady growing proportion of the foreign consummers have tired of Israel's actions against Muslim and Christian Arabs (a.k.a. Palestinians), but would that really translate into sudden order cancellations? That can be doubted.
Visiting Israel, one experiences how the Israeli society decade after decade digs deeper and deeper trenches against peoples considered as treacherous as the Europeans. By now, there is a profound disappointment on both sides, that seems as a much worse obstacle to admission into the European Union than anything the Turks have to overcome.
April 24, 2009 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't underestimate the revulsion in Europe against Israeli killing of hundreds of unarmed women and children in Gaza which is part of the reason why the EU will never approve the membership of Israel but, on the contrary, is very likely to abrogate existing trade agreements by reason of the gross breach of Israel's specific undertakings.
The time has surely come for the international community to come to terms with the scam of the last century. Israel was intended by the UN to be a small agricultural state in Palestine that would co-operate with its neighbours and be a good dog that would wag its tail for its UN/US master. Instead, it turned out to be vicious pooch that bites the hand that feeds it.
April 27, 2009 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink