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The United States in Comparative Perspective: Income and Geography around the World

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Are the differences in political attitudes between red and blue states unique to the American political system, or are they a more general result of the interaction between where voters live and income?

In our book we try to put the U.S. in comparative perspective by analyzing recent presidential elections in Mexico, in which there was also a profound regional divide between high-and-low-income states and a huge controversy over the votes of rich and poor voters. We also took a look at income and voting in other countries in Latin America, Europe, and Asia.

In a nutshell we found that the Northeast and West of the United States is like Europe, and the South is like Mexico. In other words, the rich states in the Northeast and West, along with much of Europe seem to have moved toward what might be called a postindustrial politics in which voters of liberal and conservative parties tend to differ more on religion than on income. In contrast, the poorer states in the South and middle of the United States seem to look more like Mexico, with a more traditional pattern of votes of the rich and the poor.

So, is the U.S. exceptional in terms of voting patterns? Here's what we found:

  • Mexico shows regional voting patterns similar to the United States but there are important geographical differences some of which are associated with Mexico City (which is richer than any state but with a voting patterns typical of lower-income states).
  • In general, income predicts voting more strongly in the United States than in may other countries of the world.
  • The United States is far from unique in the importance of religion in voting

Now, what do all of these findings mean anyway? First, each country has its own political history (and yes, the United States and Mexico are very different from each other, just as both are strikingly different from Canada and Argentina). But, just about everywhere there are huge regional divisions and important differences between states within regions, and these differences shape people's voting preferences.

It is not just geography per se, it is how it interacts with voters' relative position in society. In other words, a person's political, social, cultural, and economic environment is made of both the people and the institutions that structure their daily interactions. As a consequence, as we suggest in our book as well as Nolan's work; people's voting decision is going to be shaped by both their socioeconomic status (aka income) and the composition of the local setting.


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Thanks. Could you give us a brief overview of voting patterns in Mexico by geography, class, and racial/ethnic background?

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In a nutshell we found that the Northeast and West of the United States is like Europe, and the South is like Mexico.

Anybody who wants to annoy the militant extremist GOP could have come up with that little zinger without any need for elaborate social-scientising.

Happy days.

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Texans tend to have more in common culturally than other Americans with Mexicans.

Thus, George W. Bush's warm relationship with Texas's Mexican-American community. Bush and Texas's Mexicans tended to be sympatico. Bush's sister-in-law, Jeb's wife, is a former illegal immigrant, and her son George P. Bush-Garnica was seen by GWB as the most likely of the next generation of Bushes to win the White House someday.

Similarly, Karl Rove's big electoral strategy was to make Republicans dominant for a generation by turning Hispanics from Democrats to Republicans through immigration amnesty and laxer mortgage credit standards, which would make Hispanics into homeowning conservatives.

Unfortunately, the Bush-Rove mortgage plan foundered in California and its satellite states of Arizona and Nevada. In California, time-consuming environmental restrictions on home development means that the housing supply lags far behind increases in housing demand, causing giant spikes in home prices, which brought about the Housing Bubble and the Mortgage Meltdown.

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Could you give us a brief overview of voting patterns in Mexico by geography, class, and racial/ethnic background?

The northern and western states on average tend to support the conservative party (PAN) at higher rates than poorer states. However, once you unpack the vote by state and counties there are no definite regional voting patterns. For example, if you collapse the electoral results since 1994 by region you will find that aggregating multiple states into large regions entails significant loss of information that otherwise may uncover sharper and quiet revealing differences in voting patterns between rich and poor states as well as rich and poor individuals within states. On average, then, the PAN tends to do better in the richer states, while the PRD (leftist party) does better in the poorer states and the PRI seems to do better in a potpourri of rich and poor states.

In all states, the PAN does better among higher-income voters, but poor voters in richer states tend to support the PAN at higher rates than
poor voters in poorer states. That is, income is less important as a predictor in rich states than in poor states.

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Steve, I am not sure about "Texans having more in common culturally than other Americans with Mexicans". I guess it depends on what do you mean by Mexican-Americans. Do you mean those that have been in Texas before 1848, or those who arrived at the country after the Hart-Celler Act of 1965? I think there are important differences (a wonderful book detailing the dimensions and the tensions between Mexican Americans and Non-Hispanic Whites is "Walls and Mirrors by David Gutierrez).

Changing gears... I think that Republican strategy was more subtle: their approach to the Latino community was very simple, yet very powerful: you (Latino) and me (the GOP) have more things in common than you think: family values, work ethic, conservative positions on some social issues, etc. In my view, this strategy with the fact that Bush knew how to eat a tamale (not like Ford) was very appealing to Latinos, maybe another blimp just like 1984 with Reagan.

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Richard Nadler wrote an article to debunk Steve Sailer's take on Bush's share among Hispanic voters here:
http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/nadler200412080811.asp
Here are his numbers for the increase in Republican vote share in Hispanics for each election compared to the one before:
1976-1980: +9
1980-1984: +4
1984-1988: -7
1988-1992: -9
1992-1996: -4
1996-2000: +10
That puts Bush's first election 3 points above Ford, but six points behind Reagan's first. Bush improved 3 points in the next election (not shown in Nadler's table), but Reagan improved by 4. Bush was a lot better than Dole (and his father), but that's not saying much.

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This information is very useful! Thanks!
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Si vous etes interesses par le dossier, ou desirez en savoir plus, contactez-moi par mail, et je vous mettrai en contact.
Best regards,Jane, CEO of database high availability

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