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How Republican and Democratic Voters Differ

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Our book is mostly descriptive, not so much giving theories as laying out some facts about public opinion; briefly:

1. The pattern of income and voting varies geographically and demographically in the population. In particular, income predicts Republican voting more strongly in red states and among frequent church attenders, while income is only weakly associated with voting patterns in blue states and among non-attenders.

2. Or, to put it another way, the differences in political attitudes between red and blue America are concentrated among the upper middle class and do not show up so strongly among lower-income voters.

3. These patterns have largely arisen in the past thirty years, during which voting has become more issue-based.

We connected these facts to misconceptions about voting in the news media. In particular, we point out that the major media are concentrated in places such as New York, Maryland, Virginia, and California where individual income is less associated with conservative attitudes and Republican voting.

What I think will be more interest to the Talking Points Memo discussion, though, is not these bare facts but the questions of how these voting patterns arose and what they mean for American politics. We offer some speculations in the later chapters of the book, but, as we say in academia, further research is needed. Some key issues include aspects of political polarization among political officeholders and among ordinary Americans; the extent to which the electoral system favors political moderation; the sources of the political changes that have moved West Virginia from the Democratic to the Republican column and Vermont in the opposite direction; and the ways in which asymmetric bases of support for the two parties influence policy.

Our reason for writing this book was to get some basic facts out there--some facts which have not always been apparent even to well-informed journalists, because understanding them required us to analyze survey and election data more elaborately than is usually done--and to get people thinking about how Republican and Democratic voters differ. I welcome discussion of these issues.


17 Comments

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Just wanted to say, I'm glad you doing this discussion. I did not have a fan's reaction to your book -- but I like your questions and expect to learn from this.

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. . . not so much giving theories as laying out some facts . . . .

Uh-oh.

A fact-based discussion? You mean you have to have read the book?

Looks like it's gonna be a quiet week here at the Ole Cafe.

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Given: The sole purpose humans expend energy to gather facts is to support those preexisting opinions and judgments in which they are invested.

Proposition: This human characteristic is not a bug; it's a feature.

Debate!

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I think Simon and Garfunkel put it well---"A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest".

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Starting with the book cover, in order to be correct with the thesis, shouldn't 'Rich States' be in blue and 'Poor States' be red?

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If you normalize "average income" for states by the cost of living per state, does the same conclusion hold?

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Good point Merrill. You too, Ellen. Every once in a while we are surprised when somebody announces a "breakthrough." That's when the facts are so at odds with a theory that even the person holding the theory can't deny it.

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I second the "good point."

One's wealth is a function of the amount of "discretionary income" one can deploy.

In Kansas anyone with a dollar in his pocket is wealthy. After all there's nothing in Kansas anyone could possibly "discress" on.

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On the other hand and according to Forbes, Kansas does have "economic freedom."

Then again, Nick Gillespie says, "economic freedom's just another word for nothing else to do."

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Ellen: Reading the book would help, but we have posted on our blog many of the facts that we found.

Dave: We actually debated this issue when putting the cover together. Consensus was that the more accurate color scheme would make a less attractive cover. Also, I wished we'd changed the subtitle from the grandiose "Why Americans vote the way they do" to the more descriptive (and, to my mind, more interesting) "How Americans are polarized and how they're not."

Merrill: Cost of living makes a difference but doesn't do much to change the rankings of the states (see graph on page 67 of the book).

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As an aside allow me to say that I appreciate any statistician who's willing to try to speak to those of us who are statistically-challenged.

We are flooded with studies and surveys which depend upon the quality of the statistical methodology employed which we innumerates are not capable of judging.

And, too, meta-studies make my brain hurt.

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Thank you for the reply.

The electoral map of 1896 closely resembles the map of 2008. Obama won all the states that McKinley won except for WV, KY and ND. With his larger margin of victory, Obama also won NC (barely), VA, FL, CO, NV and OR.

The election of 1896 was fought over the gold standard versus bimetallism. The winning gold standard advocates were more motivated by international financial integration, but with protections for Northeast and Midwest manufactures. The losing silver advocates were more interest in avoiding the deflationary impact of the gold standard, and in free trade to enable exports of the farms, mines and forests while importing cheap manufactured goods.

The economic interests of equally wealthy people may differ across regions depending on the source of their wealth and the positions of the parties on issues impacting those sources.

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Lol, that's what I thought. Thanks for answering and being so forthright--it's refreshing for a change here!

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I think................
Democratic Voters have rights to vote their favorite leader but Republican Voters not so much.

Adam
http://www.antiagingplan.net/

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I've got news for you all, given the fact that the democrat party has regressed back to it's roots as the party of slavery, the klan and Jim Crow, helped in large part by the fascistic far left, it's going to get it's hat handed to it, in the mid terms. This former extremely liberal dem, is now an independent. From the surveying I took on April 15th, I'm not in the minority, many democrats have realized that the party has left them, a long time ago, that it doesn't respect or represent them. They will be voting strategically against democrats, and for republicans who reach out to them.

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I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I don't know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog.
I will keep visiting this blog very often.

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It is fact-based discussion and expect to learn from this.
I think
How many Voters are to be involved in politically that differs the voters.

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