The Need for Cooperative Economic Policy

The second question at the end of Ahamed's introductory essay asks if we are at a point similar to the 1930s when an absence of global economic leadership made the Great Depression much worse:
Charles Kindleberger ... attributed the 1929 collapse to a failure of global economic leadership. In his view a well functioning world economy required some country to act as the leader, in effect to do more than its fair share ... recognizing that smaller countries will freeload off its efforts... But the leaders of the U.S. were too parochial and insular to seize the opportunity. ...
Has the US been so weakened by its accumulated current account deficits, its banking debacle and its foreign policy disasters that it is incapable of bearing more than its fair share of the burden?
As I noted here, I think we are in a situation where we were more than big enough to break the U,S. and world economies, but are not big enough to fix the problem on our own - particularly after absorbing the costs of financial collapse onto our domestic balance sheets. However, while crisis has made it clear that we cannot fix the world economy by ourselves, I don't think the crisis is the fundamental reason for this, the distribution of world economic growth in recent decades would have led to this outcome with or without the crisis.
Though we can't fix the problems by ourselves, we are still big enough to have a large influence on the global economy, and we need to do our share, but that influence will become more diluted with time. Unlike in the past when we could expect a single country to emerge and fulfill the role of providing global economic insurance, the world will continue to grow, and that growth will be balanced enough to ensure that no country will have a large enough share of world output to serve as the "supplier of capital of last resort" for the global economy.
If that's the case, then we must cooperate internationally and develop institutions that are capable of producing a shared and common response to economic difficulties. With no country big enough to save the world on its own, no individual country will be willing to take strong action in a downturn without assurances that their neighbors will also act. This is because money spent domestically in an attempt to stimulate the economy can leak across borders, and to solve this countries will either impose protectionist measures to ensure the spending remains with their borders, or they will not respond with full force, if they respond at all.
This is not an imagined problem, we've seen the difficulties in coordinating monetary and fiscal policy across countries in response to the present crisis, we've seen moves toward protectionism, and I hope we can find a way to improve and do collectively what Kindleberger would have had the global leader do. That will require, for one, that the US realize that it must be part of a team rather than the person in charge giving all the orders, and giving the rest of the world the respect it deserves in formulating these decisions. There have been some encouraging signs, notably the decision at the recent G20 meetings to enhance the resources available to the IMF, the meetings themselves seemed to move toward a more cooperative governing structure, something that certainly wasn't hurt by having a new US administration, and some common views on global financial regulation emerged. But at the same time there was little cooperation on fiscal policy measures, and many of the initiatives were more show than substance. So we shall see.

















It seems to me that before you ask everyone to take the same medicine you better be sure they're all suffering from the disease.
The Anglo-American economies are suffering from a debt crisis on the private side. The proper solution is massive direct government payments to the debtors -- principally, to households.*
The Germans, the Chinese and the Japanese suffer from excessive trade surpluses. They probably need government infrastructure investment and as to the Asians, establishment of a generous safety net cum the New Deal to reduce the necessity of families saving so much.
Developing European economies need to convert their foreign currency denominated debt into domestic currency.
Nobody but the French knows what the French need.
Since various economies require different solutions, why do we think there could be coordination?
* Fairness dictates that payments be made to all households, debtor and non-debtor alike.
April 15, 2009 5:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ellen wrote It seems to me that before you ask everyone to take the same medicine you better be sure they're all suffering from the disease.
That’s' a good illustration.
I would like to add one of my own.
Obama keeps talking about everyone making a sacrifice. Okay with me.
I am skeptical though.
A pig and a chicken were walking by a church where a charity event was taking place. Getting caught up in the atmosphere, the pig suggested to the chicken that they each make an offering.
"Great idea!" the chicken replied. "Let's offer them ham and eggs!"
"Not so fast," said the pig. "For you, that's an offering. For me, it's a sacrifice."
In our Nations crisis I don't think everyone is being required to taking, the same amount of the Bitter medicine; especially those who brought about the contagion.
Sacrifice is a good idea but is it really, a shared one?
April 15, 2009 5:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
What?
April 15, 2009 6:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
WHAT? Would you have preferred Chicken Wings?
April 15, 2009 9:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
But hang on, what's really happening here is that, by our willingness to issue massive amounts of debt the US is taking the principal lead in the banking bailouts AND in the global stimulus. Other economies, including developed economies like France and Germany are no doubt freeloading off of our efforts and I think that needs to be addressed somehow.
I know I harp on this but a lot of the money we've put into AIG has allowed the insurer to make good on CDS contracts given to foreign banks who should have been left to deal with the consequences of the counter-party risks they took knowingly. If Deutsche Bank or Societe Generale were in danger of failing because it bought too many CDS contracts from AIG, then it was up to the European Central Bank to either bail them out or let them go. Instead, by bailing out AIG, we picked up the check.
Our stimulus plan will no doubt benefit foreign manufacturers and service providers, even with very weak "buy America" provisions that had even so called progressives up in arms when they were included in the bill. But Germany and France refuse to spend a dime to help us.
Make no mistake, we're picking up the tab for this unless you believe we're going to default and leave the bill to China, which I don't.
It really isn't fair though. Our citizens are sacrificing a lot, especially down the road in the name of bailing out a Wall St. that was really not a domestic industry and you don't see the foreign banks showing up to contribute from all the profits they exported throughout the decade.
April 15, 2009 7:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Has the US been so weakened by its accumulated current account deficits, its banking debacle and its foreign policy disasters that it is incapable of bearing more than its fair share of the burden?"
WTF - The US Media has failed to report all the "bailouts" being conducted by foreign nations?
Could that possibly be that those foreign nations are not bailing out anyone?
It is criminal that amost all of the AIG bailout money plus the money bailing out other "U.S." financial institutions has gone to foreign investors.
April 15, 2009 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
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