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A Second Price Revolution?

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Despite Middle Finger Mary and a few others, respondents seem more interested in economics than politics, so I'll head back in that direction - more specifically towards inflation and the possibility of a second price revolution. Indeed, perhaps I should say economic history as opposed to economics.

My subject matter in this week guest chair -- "financialization" -- had its genesis when I used that word in my 1993 book Boiling Point: Democrats, Republicans and the Decline of Middle Class Prosperity. I had thought I used it first in a 1994 book, Arrogant Capital: Washington, Wall Street and the Frustration of American Politics. But when I Googled the term, Boiling Point was credited. Some time this month, the financialization sections of Boiling Point, Arrogant Capital and Wealth and Democracy (2002) will be scanned onto the Bad Money website (Bad-Money.com). Those interested can trace the crystallizing perception of the phenomenon and its dangers.

Readers will see that my fear of financialization was informed by the history of related excesses in the prior leading world economic powers, Britain, Holland and Spain. These I had pursued earlier. In 1982, both through commentaries and in an early book, Post-Conservative America - so named to identify the radical origins of the California tax revolt and supply-side economics - I raised the possibility that the inflationary and unsettling period from the Vietnam War to 1981 marked the beginning of something akin to the "price revolution" upheaval of 16th and early 17th century Europe.

Let me underscore. This is no minor historical backwater. The New Cambridge Modern History even splits the 16th Century volume's title: The Counter-Reformation and the Price Revolution, 1559-1610. In his preface, the volume's editor noted that "We no longer regard the 'price revolution' as solely the product of the sudden influx of silver from America" but also as a reflection of "deeper and longer-term movements of population, of trade and of finance."

Twenty-seven years after lightly raising a potential U.S./global parallel in 1982, I decided to pursue the analogy - the case for a second Pri ce Revolution based on the rise of Asia instead of Europe - in some depth in the new 2009 edition of Bad Money. Based on an April 8 interview on the new material, Reuters ran an April 9 story which headlined my sense of the inflation threat but did not give any detail. That's fair enough, because I didn't try to describe the thesis as set out in 6-8 pages. Basically , and admittedly over-simplified, it's that the rise of Asia since the 1960s, including oil and commodities pressures and broader military conflicts and economic rivalries, has set in motion another 50-70-year round of off-and-on price inflation beginning in 1965-66, continuing to 1981, then with a suspension in the 1980s and 1990s, but then resuming in the 2002-2003 period. It may run through 2025-2030. The doubter may look at the CRB Commodity Price Index (a chart appears on page lviii of the new preface).

In mid-2008, while Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and his FRB sidekicks were still pretending that public inflationary expectations were "anchored," the International Monetary Fund - less wrapped up in U.S. statistical pretenses -- described the trend as the "broadest and most buoyant commodity price boom since the early 1970s." If this overview is correct, and I think it was (and is), then the commodity price implosion that jogged along with the recession from the winter of 2007-2008 through 2009 will probably give way to renewed upward price pressures in 2009 or 2010. Readers may want to look at p. lx of the new Bad Money preface to see how commodity prices plummeted during the 1973-75 recession period and then bounced up again in 1975-80 during the stagflationary recovery as the commodity up-cycle resurged with the economy. Not a few commodity traders already see a winter 2008/2009 bottom in commodity prices taking shape.

During the 1970s, this pattern prevailed despite - and here again we should underscore - ongoing deflation (especially in price-adjusted terms) in stocks and bonds. No such historical analogy is ever altogether complete, but it is certainly intriguing. Let me add that the notion of a global price revolution centered on the rise of Asia can be supported indirectly by the post-1950 history of how so many economic circumstances of the United States were Asian - wars in Korea and Vietnam and the latter's inflationary outcome, the OPEC (Persian Gulf-centered) price jolts and recessions of 1973-74 and 1979-80, the Gulf War (1990-91), the Asia and Russian crises (1998), the Al Qaeda Twin Towers attack of 2001, the U.S. military imbroglios in Afghanistan and Iraq, the 2003-2008 commodity price surge and the related strategic gambits of Russia and China. In 2008, Asian nations had the highest inflation rates, and probably will again for the twelve full months of 2009.

If so, alas, the embarrassment of central banks worldwide will be keynoted by the pre-eminent culpability of our very own Federal Reserve.

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Kevin Phillips's 2008 bestseller Bad Money was released in a new and expanded (paperback) edition on March 31.


12 Comments

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How do you think we can avoid runaway inflation given the extraordinary debts of the US now and how the Fed is printing money like there's no tomorrow? When oil prices rise again as they surely will and you combine this with all the debt and trillions in newly printed dollars what's to keep us from ending up in an inflationary deathspiral like that of the Weimar Republic?

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Interesting. This thesis is backed up by Jim Rogers, the Austrian-minded ex-partner of George Soros. He finds stock prices more or less inversely related to commodities prices, running in 16- to 18-year cycles. Hence commodities were the place to be from 1966-1982, stocks from 1982-2000, and commodities again since 2000. (And he's still long commodities, the downdraft in late 2008 notwithstanding.)

The forecast of rising prices through 2025-30 sadly jibes with the forecast of Strauss and Howe in The Fourth Turning, seeing a crisis window extending to roughly 2025 and likely entailing a "Great Devaluation."

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Not intending to restrict the topic ---

. . . the commodity price implosion that jogged along with the recession from the winter of 2007-2008 through 2009 will probably give way to renewed upward price pressures in 2009 or 2010. Kevin Phillips

Look at the fertilizer stocks since last November: Potash, up 72%; Agrium up 65%; Mosaic up 100%; even Monsanto, that GM devil, is up over 25%.

Signs of a coming commodity boom?

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And copper looks to have put in a low.

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Silver is interesting, however. Lots of industrial use (as well as investment/inflation hedge interest). Well off it's December lows, but still seeming to lag somewhat.

Some have argued that there is "market manipulation" in silver. Do you have any opinion about that, Ellen?

I've been planning to shift a fair chunk of my retirement money into metals, especially silver, to protect against inflation. And I have a little physical silver at home now. But I am not 100% confident, especially regarding the timing (ie. will we see a deeper "bottom", due to deflation, before the inevitable inflation takes over?).

-- ARG

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You must excuse me for not responding.

You see, certain of my commodity positions are so large that I must constantly be on guard against some web spider picking up one of my comments and thereupon, some algo acting upon it to my great loss and perhaps, a worldwide Armageddon.

I could never forgive myself.

P.S. "A fair chunk"? At least wait for inflation to raise its head -- if, rather than to participate in a recovery in industrial production, you're reason for investing in silver is to protect your portfolio from the effects of inflation.

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"At least wait for inflation..."

Oh, I'm waiting. That's what has me in knots -- trying to decide when to pull the trigger. Commodity prices will jump long *before* official inflation figures rise.

The stock market is a wasteland. My 401(k) money is sitting there, waiting to move into something that will appreciate. I think metals will be the first thing to move (and ETFs give me that option). But when?

I understand your reluctance to tip your hand. So many of us out here hang on your every word. It must be such a burden.

-- ARG

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Kevin, do you feel that this "Second Price Revolution" is inevitable, like the tide rolling in, or is it happening as a result of the (perhaps predictable) actions of the Federal Reserve and other central banks.

In other words, is there an alternate course, and (if so) what would that be? Or are we doomed to go down this path?

Thanks!

-- ARG

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Governments often pay war debts through currency inflation. I don't see why that wouldn't be repeated now.

As Kevin pointed out in his first post, we've entered the 'crisis' stage of finacialization and there are an array of threats which would seem to besiege the US currency.

1. OPEC threat of pricing oil in Euros instead of dollars would decrease dollar demand.

2. Real Commodity price increases as Kevin points out.

3. Asian nations may abandon the 'beggar thy neighbor' policy of buying up dollars to boost the ability of Americans to import goods. If a creditor nation like China didn't have to buy oil in dollars the process would accelerate.

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China has already begun the process of freeing the Yuan for international trade with several asian countries, and more recently, Argentina, so that there will be no need to pay China for its goods in U.S. dollars.

The clock is ticking on the U.S. dollar and inflation in the United States...

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Kevin, I can understand your point of view regarding the political side of this financial train wreck. However, unless those in politics that control much of what happens with their banking brethren are open to new solutions, what change can we look forward to? Obama seems to have created a firewall around him with holdovers from Christmas past.
Like many, I tend to lean towards the Austrian school of thought in that endless financial ponzi schemes just don't work just as no fiat currency backed by nothing other than hot air has ever survived. I do believe that after the G-20 everything changed and this changes is being driven by the Chinese and others.
I came across an interesting piece by Jim Willie not too long ago which seems to hit the proverbial nail on the head.....

"It is my firm belief that the Chinese controlled the G20 Agenda totally, with direct coordination from the Russians".

"To Obama and the US Financial players, they might have said something like "the USDollar is dead; we all know it; we reject it. The Chinese Yuan will be a global reserve alternative fully within 12 months. Go ahead and play your glitz games in London and spin to your heart’s content. We demand an agreed upon IMF alternative with SDRs for functional usage temporarily. Let the world call it a constructive consensus, whatever. But we will proceed with spreading the Yuan worldwide in full view under your current broken system. Have your fun, but the game is over." In follow up, a revolt is a more suitable description. The Straw Man provides a primary embryonic alternative, which is a psychological diversion. A few analysts have figured out the importance of the Straw Man concept".

"It is a highly important transitional device to draw attention away from the US Dollar without putting new attention on the actual next global reserve currency platforms in the making now. A friend in Costa Rica who was in conversation with me a week ago made an interesting comment. From his position as a Board Member of Jupiter, the highly secretive financial organization, he confirmed all the above after my introduction of the London G20 Marketing event. The process has begun. It will continue with Arab and Russian followup when they introduce other global reserve currencies within the next year. Many believe that these new currencies will be backed by a basket of precious metals".

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Economic History of Europe (especially Spain) seems to attract two different interpretations on what caused the Price Revolution era there, from ca. 1520 to ca. 1650. Some said it was the influx of gold and silver into Spain from the colonies.

Now we don't have an influx of species currency into the US at this time that I know of. So the only other plausible reason to expect a price revolution is through the debasement of our currency (dollar). I suppose it is the latter that you mean to say will be the problem for us. But why bring in Europe of the 16th and 17th Century as having any significance in what we face today?

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