The "Disaster Stage" of U.S. Financialization
Thirty to forty years ago, the early fruits of financialization in this country - the first credit cards, retirement accounts , money market funds and ATM machines - struck most Americans as a convenience and boon. The savings and loan implosion and junk bonds of the 1980s switched on some yellow warning lights, and the tech bubble and market mania of the nineties flashed some red ones. But neither Wall Street nor Washington stopped or even slowed down.
In August, 2007, the housing-linked crisis of the credit markets predicted the arriving disaster-stage, the Crash of September-November 2008 confirmed the debacle, and now an angry, fearful citizenry awaits a further unfolding. There is probably no need to fear a second coming of nineteen-thirties Depression economics. This is not the same thing; the day-to-day pain shouldn't be as severe.
Indeed, for all that the 1930s evoke national trauma, that decade was in fact a waiting room for national glory and wellbeing. World War Two ushered in American global ascendancy, the "Happy Days" of the 1950s and an unprecedented middle-class prosperity.
Today's disaster stage of American financialization - the bursting of the huge 25-year, almost $50 trillion debt bubble that helped underwrite the hijacking of the U.S. economy by a rabid financial sector -- won't be nearly so kind. It is already ushering in the reverse: a global realignment in which the United States loses the global economic leadership won in World War Two. The ignominy deserved by Wall Street after 1929-1933 is peanuts compared with the opprobrium the U.S. financial sector and its political and regulatory allies deserve this time.
My 2002 book, Wealth and Democracy, in its section on the "Financialization of America" noted that the "finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE) sector overtook manufacturing during the 1990s, moving ahead in the national income and GDP charts by 1995. By the first years of the next decade, it had taken a clear lead in actual profits. Back in 1960, parenthetically, manufacturing profits had been four times as big, and in 1980, twice as big." Hardly anyone was paying attention. By 2006, the FIRE sector, its components mixed together like linguine by the 1999 repeal of the old New Deal restraints against mergers of commercial banks, investment firms and insurance, had ballooned to 20.6% of U.S. GDP versus just 12% for manufacturing. The FIRE Sector, now calling itself the Financial Services Sector, lopsidedly dominated the private economy. A detailed chart appears on page 31 of Bad Money. Some New York publications and politicians try to insist that finance per se is only 8%, but the post-1999 commingling makes that absurd.
This represented a staggering transformation of the U.S. economy - doubly staggering now because of the crushing burden of its collapse. You would think that that opinion molders and the national media would have been probing its every aperture and orifice. Not at all.
Thus, it was pleasing to read MIT economics professor Simon Johnson's piece in the April Atlantic fingering financial "elites" who captured the government for the latterday financial debacle. This is broadly true, and judging from my e.mail, even some conservatives accept Johnson's analysis and indictment. After the furor over the AIG bonuses, the public and some politicians may be ready to start identifying and blaming culprits. This would be useful. Having an elite to blame is a often prerequisite of serious reform.
Nevertheless, the extremes of financialization, together with the havoc we now know it to have wrought, represent a much more complicated historical and economic genesis, one which U.S. leaders must be obliged to confront if not fully acknowledge. Elite avarice and culpability has multiple and longstanding dimensions. It has been fifteen years since Graef Crystal, a wellknown employment compensation expert, brought out his incendiary In Search of Excess: the Overcompensation of American Executives. The data was blistering. Over the last decade, New York Times reporter David Cay Johnston has published two books - Perfectly Legal and Free Lunch - describing how the U.S. tax code, in particular, has been turned into a feeding trough for the richest one percent of Americans (especially the richest one tenth of one percent).
The backstop to avarice provided by a wealth culture and market mania from the late 1980s through the Clinton years to the George W. Bush administration, prompted another set of indictments that still resonate: William Greider's Secrets of the Temple: How the Federal Reserve Runs The Country (1987), Robert Kuttner's Everything For Sale (1997), Thomas Frank's One Market Under God (2000) and John Gray's False Dawn (1998). More recently, Paul Krugman's books have been equalled or exceeded in timeliness by his New York Times columns blasting the perversity of the Obama-Geithner financial bail-out and the malfeasance of the financial sector. James K. Galbraith, in his 2008 book The Predator State, has elaborated the valid point that too many conservatives over last few decades betrayed their free market rhetoric by supporting a relentless use of state power and government financial bail-outs to advance upper-income and corporate causes. On the other hand, some conservative economists of the Austrian school make related indictments of liberal bail-out penchants.
This could be a powerful framework. All of these critiques have merit, and ideally they might converge as earlier indictments of elite and governmental abuse did during the Progressive and New Deal eras. But I have to return to whether the public will ever be given full information on the fatal magnitude of financialization, who was responsible, and how it failed and crashed in 2007-2009. So far, political and media discussion has been so minimal that the early 21st century American electorate has much less readily available information on what took place than did the electorates of those earlier reform eras.
Towards this end, my initial emphasis in the new material included in the 2009 edition of Bad Money is on what techniques, practices and leverage the financial sector used between the mid-1980s and 2007 to metastasize early-stage financialization into an economic and governmental coup and, ultimately, a national disaster. Perhaps not surprisingly, I found that the principal building blocks that the sector used to enlarge itself from 10-12% of Gross National Product around 1980 to a mind-boggling 20.6% of Gross Domestic Product in 2004 involved essentially the same combination of credit-mongering, massive sector borrowing, highly leveraged speculation, reckless, greedy pioneering of new experimental vehicles and securities (derivatives and securitization) and mega-trillion-dollar abuse of the mortgage and housing markets that became infamous as hallmarks of the 2007-2009 disaster. During Alan Greenspan's 1987-2006 tenure as Federal Reserve Chairman, financial bubble-blowing became a Washington art and total credit market debt in the U.S. quadrupled from $11 trillion to $46 trillion.
To try to put 20-30 pages into a nutshell, the financial sector hyped consumer demand - from teen-ager credit cards to mortgages for the unqualified - to make credit into one of the nation's biggest industries; nearly $15 trillion was borrowed over two decades to leverage de facto gambling at 20:1 and 30:1 ratios; banks, investment firms, mortgage lenders, insurers et al were all merged together to do almost anything they wanted; exotic securities and instruments that even investment chiefs couldn't understand were marketed by the trillions. To achieve fat financial-sector profits, the housing and mortgage markets might as well have been merged with Las Vegas.
The principal inventors, hustlers , borrowers and culprits were the nation's 15-20 largest and best known financial institutions - including the ones that keep making headlines by demanding more bail-out money from Washington and giving huge bonuses. These same institutions got much of the early bail-out money and as of December 2008 they accounted for over half of the bad assets written off. The reason these needed so much money is that they government had let them merge, speculate, expand and experiment on dimensions beyond all logic. That is why the complicit politicians and regulators have to talk about $100 billion here and $1 trillion there even while they pretend that it's all under control and that the run-amok financial sector remains sound.
This is a much grander-scale disaster than anything that happened in 1929-33. Worse, it dwarfs the abuses of debt, finance and financialization that brought down previous leading world economic powers like Britain and Holland (back when New York was New Amsterdam). I will return to these little-mentioned precedents in another post this week.
But for the moment, let me underscore: the average American knows little of the dimensions of the financial sector aggrandizement and misbehavior involved. Until this is remedied, there probably will not be enough informed, focused indignation to achieve far-reaching reform in the teeth of financial sector money and influence. Equivocation will triumph. This will not displease politicians and regulators leery of offending their contributors and backers.
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Kevin Phillips's 2008 book Bad Money: Reckless Finance. Failed Politics and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism has just been published in a new post-election edition by Viking Penguin.





















"The ignominy deserved by Wall Street after 1929-1933 is peanuts compared with the opprobrium the U.S. financial sector and its political and regulatory allies deserve this time."
Our current situation is almost identical to 1930, except in 1930 the USA was the world's greatest creditor nation whereas now we're the world's greatest debtor nation. Furthermore we have lost our manufacturing infrastructure and skills so we have few tools to use in a comeback attempt.
"Equivocation will triumph."
Yes, for a while. But Washington and Wall Street have strayed too far this time and are straying farther as we speak. There may be no way back.
April 7, 2009 4:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kevin: You're awesome. Thanks for blogging here. I learned about Bad Money from another TPM blogger, and I love it. It's right here next to my computer... (Anyway, will respond in more specifics about the post afterwork...) In the meantime, Welcome. :)
April 7, 2009 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is a great post. Really sums things up with authority. David Cay Johnston is required reading to understanding how business has turned Government tax breaks into corproate subsidies.
Here's Terri Gross's interview with Johnston from FreshAir (so good!). "Wrecking Crew" style GOP governing really starts to look like a Sopranos-style Bust-Out after listening to Johnston's "Free Lunch" discussion:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=17808622
BTW - I think the "Bust Out" episode of the Sopranos is OnDemand this month... Check it out! ;)
April 7, 2009 8:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am either confused or this is a contradiction:
financial bubble-blowing became a Washington art and total credit market debt in the U.S. quadrupled from $11 trillion to $46 trillion.
... to make credit into one of the nation's biggest industries; nearly $15 trillion was borrowed over two decades
The first paragraph implies that at the very least $35 trillion dollars was borrowed over two decades.
This is not just a pedantic point. The total amount of money borrowed since 2003 or so will largely determine the magnitude of the credit losses during this crisis. For example, if those loses are in the $2 trillion range then the money the govt has just given away or promised will cover the losses, but what if the losses approach $8 trillion?
April 7, 2009 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
screwed up html tag. The paragraph beginning with ... should also be highlighted.
April 7, 2009 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Glad to see you back Mr. Phillips!
A couple of questions for you...
Would you agree with Krugman, et al that the crisis is one o fo isolvency as opposed to liquidity?
What do you think of William Black's critique of the financial collapse? He says unequivocally that the Obama administration through Geithner and Summers is simply carrying on the Bush administration's program of covering up the massive fraud that is at the heart of the crisis. He believes both Summers and Geithner are poor choices to bein the positions they are in given their complicity in creating and enabling the crisis. Do you agree with that?
What's your reaction to the idea of setting up a very large, special unit at the Department of Justice to investigate and prosecute the frauds that have occured on Wall Street and which brought about the collapse? Do you think we should be pursuing fraud on Wall Street as a criminal matter?
I hope you'll share your opinions on these questions.
Thanks!
April 7, 2009 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Would you agree with Krugman, et al that the crisis is one [of] i[n]solvency as opposed to liquidity?"
Here is my generous thinking:
Uncertainty as to solvency due to apparent illiquidity of some assets; a facade of illiquidity hiding realworld value differences.
Roubini has alleged about $1.8T in real losses, and it's commonly said that banks had only $1.4T to cover those losses. So as a whole, if Roubini is close, the banking industry is shot to hell. However, note that many banks might be fine while others could take huge losses. Given that a handful of banks (5-10) have the vast amount of exposure here, only one or two going down could relieve pressure on the whole industry.
The problem is that the FDIC is on the hook for covered deposits and the FDIC just upped its coverage limits from $100K to $250K without making banks pony up to cover the added $150K per account which risk suddenly appeared on FDIC books. You can bet that people with lots of cash have been creating multiple accounts at $250K to get better protection.
So there's a whole lot more the FDIC will likely have to pay out if a major bank proves to be insolvent. This is part of Geithner's plan, to have the FDIC lend up to 85% of asset purchase price, BECAUSE it's already on the hook for a lot if the bank fails. There is however no reason to believe that Geithner's plan is a good one much less the best one. In fact, it seems to allow gaming and it doesn't make banks and cohorts take haircuts. Plus the story is that banks will bid up each other's assets.
April 7, 2009 8:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
eds, here is the latest on the FDIC:
Or see the Interim Rule on Emergency Special Assessment at the FDIC website.
April 8, 2009 2:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Basically 2 years of fees... comes to how much?
"The fee brings in about $12 billion a year, said David Barr, an FDIC spokesman. The proposed one-time assessment would raise $15 billion."
That's barely more that one year's amount. Contradiction alert! Also note that it's tiny compared to plausible losses on "toxic assets".
April 8, 2009 2:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
FDIC is mainly geared to taking over and resolving small banks. For example, they have taken over several banks in Georgia this year with a few branches each. FDIC losses on these tend to be pretty small, particularly if they are doing their supervisory job right and closing them before things get completely out of hand.
Larger failing banks are typically combined with healthier institutions who are asked to acquire them for the good of the country. For example, the arranged marriage of Countrywide with Bank of America.
However, last year the Government was unable to find a partner for IndyMac. The result has been a $10.7 billion hit to the FDIC. The new assessment fills that hole. However, FDIC is not capable of handling the collapse of more than one or two medium sized banks without having to go to Treasury for funds, rather than taking it out of its insurance pool.
IndyMac was an offspring of Countrywide.
Why there aren't more managers from these companies in jail is beyond me.
April 8, 2009 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hi Merrill, how does the new $500B FDIC credit line proposed by Dodd fit into this picture? Will it enable Bair to handle a big-bank failure?
April 8, 2009 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. S.541 increases the borrowing authority of the FDIC from the current $30 billion to $100 billion. In an emergency, by two thirds approval of the FDIC Board of Directors plus two thirds approval of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the agreement of the Secretary of the Treasury, it can borrow up to $500 billion.
The FDIC has a current balance of 0.4% of bank assets, which is less than the required statutory minimum of 1.15%.
Credit Default Swaps on bank debt are over 2.0% per year, so if you apply "mark to market" accounting to FDIC, I think it is insolvent.
April 8, 2009 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thank God they're suspending m2m then! ;0P
More seriously, thanks for this!
April 8, 2009 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
You are welcome. Note that S.541 is in a "referred to committee" state. However, it has 12 sponsors from both sides of the aisle, so it may eventually be enacted.
April 8, 2009 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
ok, yeah, I was wondering about its status...
April 8, 2009 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does the FDIC wipe out all creditors except insured deposits before it uses its own funds in a bank failure? I would think so. That is shareholder equity plus bondholder values get trashed, along with other creditors.
Except I vaguely recall something about how FDIC is now going to cover some unsecured creditors too... Could that be an extra significant burden?
Anyway, my comment was directed at the apparent contradiction in the prior comment and its reference. $15B is not over 2x normal fees, and it's tiny in the context.
April 8, 2009 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
They have a Resolution Handbook that details their processes.
They use whichever one of their resolution processes that results in the least cost to the insurance fund.
April 8, 2009 9:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
The FDIC has not collected any fees (really insurance premiums) for 5 years because Congress refused to grant the authority. The One time charge needs to be 4 times what is proposed.
April 8, 2009 9:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh la la!
I bet the reason Congress gave was that times were too good, no reason to boost the insurance amounts.
Just curious, how does the FDIC hold its paid-in reserves, is it all in .... Treasuries, is it funny money, or is it more like a hold on fractional real bank assets?
April 9, 2009 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, and this article mentions 10 years, not 5 (but does say "from most banks").
"is facing a potential major shortfall in part because it collected no insurance premiums from most banks from 1996 to 2006."
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/03/11/now_needy_fdic_collected_little_in_premiums/
April 9, 2009 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
The instability, desperation, and nasty political opportunism occurring during and in the wake of The Great Depression led fairly directly to the extended and unnecessary slaughters and other horrors of the 1930s and 1940s worldwide wars.
What the F.I.R.E. sector has done currently could very possibly lead to worse. Worse.
I think a Financial Nuremberg process NOW could help pre-empt the violence that otherwise most likely will come.
Purge the bastards. Make them examples unto the nations. Worth a shot.
April 7, 2009 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
The FIRE sector of our economy used to serve the real economy. Now, the businesses that actually provide real goods and services are in bondage to the bankers, insurance companies and property owners. The FIRE companies add so much overhead to the real economy, that very few real businesses are now making a profit. And, as a consequence, most of the FIRE firms are also losing money. Everybody is now losing money. This can't go on forever.
April 7, 2009 9:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
To echo oleeb's question above, what are your recommendations, Mr. Phillips, for a remedy?
Thanks for posting this here; looking forward to the discussion.
-- ARG
April 7, 2009 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also worth re-reading is Phillips' American Theocracy. The book is about some-to-come crises in oil supply, the related oil culture, environmental degradation, and debt, with the country hobbled by a millenarian religious right. The only good in the current mess is that the religious right has shrunk.
April 7, 2009 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
All of Phillips' books are worth reading. He has evolved quite a bit since his GOP days of Nixon's Southern strategy.
April 7, 2009 8:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've posted a few times here before that another precedent from the 30's exists that could be duplicated - the Pecora Commission. A few Senators have even proposed convening one (Dorgan and I believe Shelby). Of course, the vast majority of both Democratic and Republican Senators are in the pocket of the "Financial Services Sector" and our new president has wolves guarding the henhouse (Summers especially, Geithner and underlings as well), who are continuing the Bush/Paulsen ripoffs. This is not change we can believe in, or change in any sense. It is insane and immoral, and will destroy Obama's presidency and the country besides unless we demand real reform.
April 7, 2009 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
"This is not change we can believe in, or change in any sense. It is insane and immoral,..."
I agree. There is a bailout protest this Saturday in my town, and I will be there.
April 7, 2009 7:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kevin, I heard about your book on XM radio. I will certainly buy it.
There is an important difference between the 1930's Great Depression and now about which I have not heard much. In the 1930's, most small businesses had very little overhead. They could often tread water with minimum revenues. Today, nearly every small firm has so much overhead that they lose money if revenues drop 20%.
It seems to me that the many small businesses will be folding very quickly. I would think this will add a great deal of stress to the banks.
One example: I know a small business man (8 employess, about 1.25 million in mortgages, equipment loans, working capital line) who hasn't made a payment in 8 months. His bank has not yet gotten aggressive. The banker told him he has "bigger fish to fry."
April 7, 2009 8:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm always amazed at examples like yours, where "businessmen", who one would think of as "capitalists" don't seem to actually have any capital.
Furthermore, they have attempted to reduce their borrowing costs by borrowing short term money, which means they have not matched the maturities of their debt with the expected flow of income needed to pay it off. When their prospects dim, their lenders refuse to roll over the debt and put them out of business.
Another type of situation that one often hears about is the "businessmen" who have used high-balance consumer credit cards as a way of financing their businesses. This often involves rolling balances from one "teaser rate" card to the next. Since the card companies are no longer enabling this, a lot of these people are going to be out of business. Putting business debt on a credit card is just one step short of going into partnership with the Mafia.
April 8, 2009 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Loan sharks, revolving credit, and time value arbitrage!
Also, some businesses use "factors" and pay a hefty premium to pawn off their receivables to what amount to collection agencies.
Time value arbitrage is something banks do.
April 8, 2009 6:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
He is 45, ex-police officer. He was earning 6 figures with a big company. His parents, who are retired military, put up their house to finance his new venture. Everyone believed in him. He made money from day one, and continued to make money for 3 years. It is an advertising/promotions type of company. Then the economy collapsed, and his clients cut the easiest thing to cut - advertising and promotion. After all, advertising in this economy is a lot like fishing when the fish aren't biting. His revenues went down from $110,000 a month to $60,000 then to $38,000. I just don't see any of this as his fault. In my opinion, the so called FIRE economy is choking to death the real economy.
April 8, 2009 7:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or not. The FIRE economy as you called it was precisely what gave the guy a business, and when the FIRE economy failed, the guy's business failed.
April 8, 2009 9:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mr. Phillips,
With all due respect your superficial style from _American Theocracy_ which I just read, is also clear in this post. You are making a poor ad for your new book. That's not only spam, it's trashy.
"To try to put 20-30 pages into a nutshell"
Try again, and this time put your heart in it, don't take cheap swipes at strawman notions. Not only would it make for better reading, it might be a better promo for your book.
"I will return to these little-mentioned precedents in another post this week."
Let's see some logically connected substance!
But thanks for the term 'financialization' which I found in AT. I've used it several times since then.
April 7, 2009 8:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh right, Phillips is "superficial", so I guess your nitpicking here is "deep." Cut me a break.
April 7, 2009 8:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
No break for the wicked.
Attacking me won't earn you anything but scorn.
April 8, 2009 2:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Pointing out that your criticism of Phillips is pointless is not attacking you, it's disagreeing with you.
April 8, 2009 6:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
No it's not. If you disagreed you would substantiate a position with something to show how my position is wrong. You might disagree in your own head, but you haven't done anything to support Phillips or counter my comment except to attack me and my comment abusively.
April 8, 2009 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your attacks on Kevin Phillips on style, and not substance, deserves scorn, and you have earned it from me. You comments here are no more insightful than your calling Dean Baker a liar in one of your posts today.
April 8, 2009 9:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please see my deeper critique in re Phillips' new thread.
And feel free to cut off your own nose to spite your face, anytime, but don't blame me for it.
April 9, 2009 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn Eds, really thought you'd like that book.
Superficial-really? Trashy- I think you're pushing it here.
Admit it, you liked the book and you agree with most of Phillips points you're just groping for a way to tie this to homeowners thievery. Am I right?
April 8, 2009 12:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm glad to see you're not ignoring me entirely. I've replied a couple times in older threads...
No, I found it almost unreadable. He tosses data points around but without being persuasive. It's like he hashed a history and chose only bits and pieces to present to make a case, and then failed to use logic in putting them out like dots without lines.
I almost gave up on it twice, starting with the preface/intro. In the end I skipped to the last part about debt and struggled through that, then since I'm a masochist I skimmed through the first part before flying through the part about religion. I took a few notes here and there, but mostly about things I thought about while reading, not data or ideas he presented.
Trashy is the word. And you haven't said why you thought I'd like it. Maybe he was preaching to your choir?
April 8, 2009 2:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not ignoring, just super busy.
I would confess to being of a phillips bent, and I see your point about jumping around a bit, but I would suspect I read him in a different context. I am an avid history buff, so his leaps often seem logical to me. But I can see how it could be construed as a 'hash' at times. Often they are only accompanied by brief explanations that summarize decades of detail.
I suppose that despite my populist rage (which I do think can be mustered towards a progressive agenda- in fact it is the only thing that usually has in history); I don't really view the hijacking of our economy by FIRE as a new phenomenon, It is what usually happens in the last gasp of empire. See the Italian citystates after the development of the worlds first bond market, or the Dutch tulip mania after their own gilded age began to wane in the 1600s, or the Spanish empire after there vast American wealth lead to inflation and all they had to show for it was war. These examples are scatter shot I confess, but their is a trend that is clear. When the innovation slows, the means of production becomes concentrated, and the markets saturated someone creative comes along with some fancy new instrument to make everything look good, and for a while it works and it provides a new efficiency to the market mechanism. But then the old guys die off, and the young guys get carried away and... Its not really new. We just added computers, advanced physicists, and globalization. That bought us 25 years of craziness.
Phillips often shorthanded references that if one is not familar with then the lack of details is frustrating. A good simple companion book would be Paul Kennedy's rise and fall of great powers (shhh don't tell Ellen), or for his discussion of oil, I strongly recommend Daniel Yergin's seminal history of Oil and power: The prize. I read Phillips with those in mind so to me he appears more as an essayist chronicling our own descent. Kind of like a Lewis Laphim but with graphs and sad stats, and a bit of outrage. The outrage gives me some hope.
I guess I thought you'd like it because his tone often reads like your moralist bent does, and I don't mean that offensively. Better than Grieder, Kuttner or Frank, I think Phillips has a stronger historical bent and his ideology to me seems more evidence based (he was a republican). I suppose I had hoped that some of the evidence he marshals might move you towards pointing your moralist rage at the guys who made the rules and now have all the cash. Thats who I (and most of the caferes around here) moralize against.
P.S. I have enjoyed many of your recent posts, I will try and comment more.
April 8, 2009 5:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think you've mostly got it. For you it's more a reminder of stuff you sorta already know. For me it's frustrating to have him drop half-truths and partial data sets as tho' the rest should be obvious. I'm pretty illiterate and thus ignorant of world history.
I did get the historical patterns (tho' again only weakly for the above reasons). "I don't really view the hijacking of our economy by FIRE as a new phenomenon" -- right, it's a new form but the same idea in a new reality. However, I don't see OTC derivatives as the underlying cause, rather they are an effect as well as being an amplifier of the underlying causes (including a failure of morality at more than one level).
I don't get his moralism as being all that like mine, but it certainly wasn't offensive to me nor is your thought offensive to me. I don't know exactly who it is who made the rules and now has all the cash, that strikes me as simplistic. There are 'de facto' and 'de jure' rules, and as you know, my view is that we need to consider the borrowers who don't pay back loans as being the ones who made out like bandits. Of course when Rahm makes $16M in his first and only two years on Wall St., eyebrows are not all that are to be raised... Or are you intending to keep your attack strictly an abstract one against perhaps money materialism as an ideology?
I'm just starting to look at two Grieder books, and will report my assessment of those somewhere along the line, too. :-)
April 8, 2009 6:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
btw, http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/eds/2009/04/treacle-at-treasury---a-moral.php
Phillips posted another blog on the cafe, so I replied again there partly to show in some detail why I did (and do) not like his writing.
I think "financialization" represents a valid issue (as I said indirectly in my first comment in this thread), but that's pretty slim.
April 9, 2009 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, if you haven't the stamina or intellectual foundation to read the book in order, and just skip around to find the stuff you either like, or on the other hand, dislike, then you may find the reading difficult. However, when I read it, I found the arguments fully supported, and consistent with other history and petroleum focussed writings. Indeed, though Kevin Phillips gathers his facts into complex syllogisms and dense analysis, his work can not in any way be characterized as you state.
April 8, 2009 9:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually it can, and I did.
Your need to continually attack me and defend him is curious. Are you a sock puppet for Phillips??
I've also replied to his more recent Cafe post, with a detailed analysis of his opening remarks there. Feel free to take rational issue with my criticisms there. But please take your personal attacks to the dump.
April 9, 2009 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn. This has to be one of the worst. comments. in. 2009. What bit you? And please, like Saladin says, don't do the abusive borrowers routine. There could not be abusive borrowers without predatory lenders. Regulate the lenders and the abusive borrowers fade away.
April 8, 2009 2:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Your comment is abusive.
When you can refute my points, I'm sure you'll have at it. Merely noting that it takes two to tango, as you do there, only shows that you admit that my point is right on (and shows that you have some kind of a chip on your shoulder for posting out of order here). Too many people only attack the lenders or investors. But the investors are the one's who got ripped off by the borrowers. When you admit this openly, you'll see it mentioned less often. Some small investors got ripped off, it wasn't just billionaires losing money. And no, not me on both counts!
April 8, 2009 2:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
No, not two to tango at all. Abusive borrowers will always be around, and are probably not controllable. But they can only do damage when a lender is willing to lend to them. If lenders return to the standard where loans are based on a borrower's ability to pay rather than a lender's ability to sell the loan off for securtization, the abusive borrower's chance to wreak damage is greatly reduced.
...(and shows that you have some kind of a chip on your shoulder for posting out of order here).
I replied to your post. It follows a 'threaded comments' order per the software. Take your unhappiness up with the programmer, not me.
And no, not me on both counts!
Likewise.
April 8, 2009 4:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Your bias is clear, but is not progressive unless hiding from the truth is now the goal of progressives.
Your comment being out of order has nothing to do with thread order ala TPM software. It's out of order because it was rude and stupid.
April 8, 2009 5:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
You, Eds, call people rude and stupid for disagreeing with you, make generalized and unsupported accusations against posters and writers, and then claim that those who disagree do so without proper support. Sounds more like Karl Rove than any rational discussion.
April 8, 2009 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kevin, you are, no doubt, familar with Michael Hudson michael-hudson.com I think he says that the only solution to this mess is massive debt repudiation, public and private. Hudson has a PHD in economics. Wouldn't that work? Start the whole monopoly game over. Is that too radical? Isn't that going to happen anyway, one way or another? It seems to me the massive debt cannot be paid back.
April 7, 2009 8:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nobody expected industrial capitalism to end up like this. . . . A kleptocratic class has taken over the economy to replace industrial capitalism. Michael Hudson "America's Own Kleptocracy"
And that was written September 20, 2008.
You can also follow Hudson, who publishes infrequently, and Paul Craig Roberts on Counterpunch.
April 7, 2009 9:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hudson says some good things, but he doesn't begin to make the case for "kleptocracy" so the article is kind of a dud to that extent.
Are we back to "Fraudulent Conveyance"? (see his current piece on IMF stuff http://www.counterpunch.org/hudson04062009.html )
April 8, 2009 3:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Kevin Phillips appears to be hoping for sweeping wave of reform, comparable to the Progressive Era of the early 1900s, the New Deal and the post-Watergate reforms of the early 1970s.
But America doesn't do that sort of thing any more. Obama's "change you can believe in" con was only the most recent evidence of that fact. The cancer -- of which runaway financialization is just symptom -- is now far too pervasive and runs far too deep. The patient, i.e. the republic, is a terminal case, waiting for the mercy stroke that will put it out of its misery.
Or, to quote the anonymous, highly cynical Bush aide quoted by Ron Suskind:
"We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality . . . We're history's actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."
His only mistake was thinking that HE and his GOP cronies were the actors, when in fact they were just the props -- to be replaced with new ones when a change of scene was requires.
The real actors don't run the White House; they own it. As Obama, Summers and Geithner are busy demonstrating now.
April 7, 2009 8:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
In my heart of hearts I fear you are exactly correct. I had hoped Obama would grow into another FDR, eventually at least, and take on the economic royalists and push thru the needed reforms on the strength of his popularity. It may still happen as the crisis deepens, but its looks more and more to me, as the disasterous G-20 summit indicates, that he is another empty suit on an ego trip. Pray the man gets a grip on how existentially serious our economic problems really are, grows a pair of brass ones and starts cleaning out the augean stables. His rock-star status will quickly vanish when the collapse occurs in spite of turning over the treasury to the locusts who created the problem.
April 7, 2009 9:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is far too timid and self-interested to morph into an FDR. That might actually entail some risk and leadership by him.
April 8, 2009 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Methinks you are right. Woe be unto us.
April 8, 2009 9:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've seen Kevin Phillips on C-SPAN a number of times, I've always enjoyed his interviews.
April 7, 2009 8:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone who skips reading this article will have no excuse when they wake up one day to find our financial system in complete control of the 5 big banks who control Wall Street and our Government:
"At the time Summers was busy opening the floodgates of financial abuse for the Wall Street Money Trust, his assistant was none other than Tim Geithner, the man who today is US Treasury Secretary, while Geithner's old boss, the self-same Summers, is President Obama's chief economic adviser as head of the White House Economic Council. To have Geithner and Summers responsible for cleaning up the financial mess is tantamount to putting the proverbial fox in to guard the henhouse."
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/KD03Dj02.html
Banks Use Bailout Bucks To Pay Off Dot Com Boom-Bust IPO Lawsuit"
Anyone still question whether or not our system is fraudulent and corrupt to the core? This situation is the equivalent of Geithner, Summers and Obama saying: "take THAT you dumb-ass taxpayers." The folks who still believe that Obama is here to save us are the same people who will become a part of, as Warren Buffet stated so eloquently about 2 years ago, "a nation of serfs."
This news release sums it all up. What it fails to mention is that you can seek shelter from the coming collapse with direct ownership of gold and silver bullion.
"Since many of the defendants, including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, are still funded with billions of taxpayer dollars, the US taxpayer has effectively been made to pay for the case"
http://www.businessinsider.com/banks-use-bailout-
bucks-to-pay-off-dot-com-boom-bust-ipo-lawsuit-2009-4
April 7, 2009 11:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm buying more bullion tonight, in fact.
People, consider silver instead of gold. It has more upside potential. And it is easier to buy in smaller dollar amounts (an ounce or two a week is possible to do).
On the one hand, things move fast in the information age. On the other hand, this whole financial collapse will happen in slow motion. There is still time to take some action to protect yourself.
-- ARG
April 8, 2009 12:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
I like chicken bullion, but veggie bullion can be tasty too!
April 8, 2009 4:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Um... that would be bouillon, not bullion.
But I assume you knew that already...
-- ARG
April 8, 2009 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
I was frankly wondering if Bwakfat would drop by due to the chicken reference and cheap pun.
:-)
April 8, 2009 6:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
...Bit watered down pun.
April 9, 2009 7:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
better salty than sorry?
April 9, 2009 10:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like reading you Kevin. I keep coming to the conclusion that when government tells us this bank or that insurance giant is "too big to fail", what they are really saying is that those institutions are inherently part of our government.
The obvious conclusion is that our government is run by people who are not elected or accountable to the people, only to themselves. So, there is no democracy, just a well marketed oligarchy.
April 8, 2009 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
This cogent insight -- that too-big-to-fail financial institutions "are inherently part of our government" -- deserves some fleshing out.
Is it the case that there cannot (ought not) be a distinction between, say, the GSEs which the government has already taken into conservatorship and the TBTF institutions that demand (require) government support?
April 8, 2009 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. And if we accept the notion that TBTF really means part of the gov't -- which is more than plausible -- then we have to admit that we have lost our democracy, and that what we really have is a form of soft corporatism (aka fascism).
And then, we must ask ourselves, what shall we do about it?
-- ARG
April 9, 2009 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
While I agree with your analysis, Mr. Phillips, I find that you are still lost in the clouds, regrettably.
Contrary to what you say, information on the magnitude and causes of the debacle is readily available to anyone who can read and is interested. I cite as examples (two among multitudes) your article and the Simon Johnson Atlantic piece to which you refer.
The problem is that ordinary folks are just elites without brains and courage. The only thing they're capable of in response to what's happening is destructive rage. You'll have to find a better solution than an appeal to them if you want to improve our system of governance.
April 8, 2009 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
"ordinary folks are just elites without brains and courage"
I'd say that's about as unfair and untrue as can be. Ordinary folks are elites without money and influence and that's the only real difference.
April 8, 2009 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure what "ordinary folks" means, but regardless, it seems you have both too sympathetic a view of the robber baron elite, and too cynical of everyone else.
It's like saying the only difference between sociopaths and "ordinary folks" is brains and courage.
April 8, 2009 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oleeb,
It may be unfair...but it is true. However, pampered professors have been successfully using your line of horseshit to pull down panties for at least a century that I know of...so who am I to tell you to stop.
Anonymous Bosch,
I speak from experience. Yours may differ, but I doubt it. I'm neither sympathetic nor cynical. Just realistic.
April 8, 2009 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Then I doubt you've spent much time with "ordinary people."
Some of the brightest people I've ever met have lived very humble lives, and very, very few of those would I even consider calling cowards.
April 8, 2009 7:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Almost everyone has spent a great deal of time with ordinary people. What separates me from the vast majority is that I've spent a great deal of time with extraordinary people too.
April 8, 2009 9:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
What separates you from the vast majority is your high opinion of yourself which makes you pretty much like most of the egotistical doofs on earth. Impressive indeed!
April 9, 2009 1:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
It is not at all true. You're just generalizing in a way that disqualifies what you've written from serious consideration because it is absurd on it's face.
April 9, 2009 1:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Absurd on its face?
One would logically expect that those at the top of the heap in any competitive endeavor are the best at what they do and most probably generally gifted, intelligent (if intelligence is unitary and there's strong evidence that it is), courageous, tenacious.
So your argument boils down to the claim that the most intelligent and gifted among us are the least moral, the greediest.
Now that's a claim that is certainly absurd on its face.
April 9, 2009 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, this strikes me a funny debate you are having, because it's not absurd if you take "ordinary" to actually mean "ordinary," as in "not special" or "average." If it's ordinary/average intelligence, ordinary/average amount of courage, it can't also be a special, atypical amount of intelligence or courage.
Yes, it's a Bill Clinton, it all depends upon what the meaning of ordinary is.
April 10, 2009 1:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
I just got through reading Thorstein Veblen's "Theory of the Leisure Class" and "Absentee Ownership". This guy, writing over 100 years ago, accurately predicted how the behavior of government colluding with business would bring down our national economy--for the Great Depression and the current debacle. Veblen may be difficult to read and have some other problems--but what he says about how men in power behave is so true to what happened with the financial markets, Madoff, Bush/Cheney (whom he would have referred to as "Kept"), Rove (whom he would have referred to as a "moron") and all of the other oligarchs, that you would swear you are reading the blog of a very smart insider. Both books are on-line at Google Books and once you get into the rhythm of the language you'll catch on to his searing sarcasm.
April 8, 2009 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
So in order to control the government, all you need to do is be able to make political contributions in amounts sufficient to pay for lots of TV ads time, the most effective form of political persuasion.
April 8, 2009 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed, a fantastic piece.
I've long argued that there are strong parallels between "financialization" and so-called "Dutch Disease."
Both result in a skewing of economic opportunity to one sector, at the cost of all others - save non-tradable services (e.g., healthcare).
Both also hollow-out economies, as imports (comparatively cheaper than domestic producers) dominate and domestic capacity is allowed to atrophy.
April 8, 2009 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
The English version of this was Mercantilism, which was as the base of British tax policy and trade restrictions that lit the fire of the American Revolution. Goldman Sachs is our British East India Company, Citicorp our British West Indies Company, and the other banks and investment houses are run under the government charters granted by the Fed and our Congress, just like the colonies.
April 8, 2009 9:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
What about the money available for the financialization of our economy that might otherwise have gone to infrastructure, education and cultural entities via income taxes? If not for the tax cuts begun by Reagan and raised to an art form by GW Bush our public schools might be competitive and our bridges safe.
All that extra money had to land somewhere. The markets and what passed for financial "instruments" were as handy as anything.
April 8, 2009 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Indeed, for all that the 1930s evoke national trauma, that decade was in fact a waiting room for national glory and wellbeing. World War Two ushered in American global ascendancy..."
How come you do not mention the massive social spending the New Deal? The GDP was already on the right track back to prosperity prior to WWII. Yes, WWII sealed the deal, but for close to a decade, it was the New Deal that was working to get Americans back to work.
April 8, 2009 7:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, it was WW I that began the ushering in of American global ascendancy. By the end of WW I, the American gold reserves were large and those of Britain were depleted. Stay tuned for "Lords of Finance" in a couple weeks. The economic turmoil of the '20s and '30s and WW II followed quite naturally. The 1914 through 1949 era needs to be looked at as a whole.
Note that this also means that the current position of the United States is more analogous to Britain 1973-1914, to France under Louis XVI, or Spain under Philip II. These are all dominant great powers which are decaying and losing ground to emerging powers in the runup to total wars that break them. In the case of the US, our demise can be dated from the collapse of the Soviet Union, since that removed the main incentive for other countries to accommodate the US, and passive agressive behavior set in.
April 8, 2009 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't really agree with this analysis, for several reasons. For one thing, things may be bad in the US, but there are many other places around the world wher they are much worse-- this is a global financial disaster, not something limited to the United States. And yes, I agree that the US will not be THE superpower forever. That was an unnatural situation, and one that will soon come to an end. But the US will continue to be A power for a long time to come, but one among many, not the global hegemon. Your citation of France in fact may be close to the mark. Not that I expect a Revolution and guillotines (or Napoleon either), but France remained one of the world's premier powers for generations after 1789, and even today it is not exactly a basketcase.
April 9, 2009 10:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
A number of years ago, Paul Kennedy made the same points about financiaization, in the context of modern Western Civ, in "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers." An excellent book for those who have not yet read it.
And, read "Counterpunch" for more on this line of thinking, and what Obama should be doing, but won't.
April 9, 2009 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink