If Economists Knew Arithmetic, We Might Waste Less Money on Banks
There is no doubt that the economy would be better off if most of our banks were not insolvent, but only those who are really bad at arithmetic would think that repairing the banking system will restore prosperity. The economy would still be faced with a massive shortfall in demand with the unemployment rate soaring into the double digits.
The basic problem is that the economists who missed the housing bubble (EMHB) somehow still don't understand how the bubble drove growth earlier in this decade. There were two main channels:
Residential construction expanded from its average of 4 percent of GDP to more than 6 percent of GDP at its peak in 2005; and
Consumption boomed based on ephemeral housing bubble wealth, as the adjusted saving rate turned negative over the years from 2004 to 2008, compared to a post World War II average of 8 percent.














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