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G20 Summit: Obama Takes The Lead

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With our myriad banking problems, rapidly rising unemployment, looming political battles over the budget and much more on the pressing domestic agenda, is the G20 summit in London (dinner Wednesday and meeting Thursday) really worth all the time and effort that the President and his team have devoted to it? And, granted that President Obama has to attend this heads of government meeting for protocol reasons, is there much that this summit can realistically achieve - i.e., are there actions that will be taken as a result of the summit that would not otherwise have happened and that can really make a difference to the parlous state of our economy?

These are all reasonable questions. And the answer is simple: in terms of the obvious major issues of the day, this summit is unlikely to achieve much.

But every global economic recovery has to start somewhere and it probably has to begin small. And there are some slight glimmers of hope because (a) President Obama is taking a global leadership role, (b) he is doing this in a creative way that might seem surprising, but which should reduce the chance of a further global meltdown.

To be clear, President Obama's team tried to turn this into a constructive meeting that would contribute in a major fashion to a global recovery. They pushed hard for further fiscal stimulus around the world, but were rebuffed by the Europeans (for some of whom - e.g., those who speak German - fear of inflation trumps all other sensible considerations). There is no real summit-related progress on that front - just the usual kind of official window dressing. But it was worth a try and the topic can be reopened in future discussions.

Obama's team didn't push quite as hard for expansionary monetary policy elsewhere in the world, to match what Ben Bernanke and the Fed are now doing in the US, partly because there is an unfortunate anachronistic notion that central banks are "independent" and should not be discussed by heads of government. This leaves the European Central Bank with a deflationary policy stance (in large part, again because it is dominated by the Germanic anti-inflation obsession); this is dangerous for that whole continent and - given they comprise around a quarter of the world economy - for all of us.

No one made much progress with financial regulation. None of the G20 governments really seem to have got to grips yet with the implications of having created large financial institutions that are too big to fail - and which derive great economic benefit and, in some cases, political power from this status. At least the US is beginning to think harder about how to regulate the system, but the positive signs along this dimension are quite limited and nothing to do with the G20.

If the summit will make essentially no progress on the big three topics of fiscal, monetary and regulatory policy, how exactly is President Obama showing leadership and making a difference? Here's the creative surprise - it's by raising a great deal of money for the IMF and proposing fundamental changes in the way that organization operates.

The IMF currently has about $250bn to lend; this is not enough to really make a difference in a world of trillion dollar problems. The Europeans proposed to raise this to $500bn, which seems still low - particularly as it's mostly European countries that have a pressing need to borrow; you guessed it, the Germans don't want to put up more. The Obama Administration is pushing for closer to $1trn in total IMF funding and, after a lot of hard work, seem likely to get close to this target.

In essence, this is a clever way to force the Europeans to help themselves. The Europeans won't do it with fiscal or monetary policy, and their regulatory changes - even if meaningful - won't help the recovery. So the US has persuaded other countries to stuff the IMF full of cash and line it up as the lender of last resort to European economies that now find their property markets collapsing, their currencies under pressure, and their budget deficits increasingly hard to fund.

But that's not all. The masterstroke is simple and also brilliant. The US is pushing for - and likely to get - the Managing Director (known as the MD) of the IMF to be selected through an open, competitive and merit-based selection process.

Why is this a big deal? Governance of the IMF has been for too long dominated by Europeans - by convention, every MD has been European since the founding of the organization; the results have been questionable. The MD has enormous power and great discretion on almost all questions - the IMF is subject only to its own rules and its executive board is dominated by... Europeans. This combination wore thin with much of the rest of the world a long time ago.

Deeper governance reform and de-Europeanization of the Fund (e.g., Europe is massively overrepresented in terms of board seats) is long overdue, but the Europeans have been strong enough to slow down the process in the past. As a result, middle income and poorer countries rightly question if the IMF really works for them or just for the Europeans (and, it must be said, for the United States.)

By forcing open the leadership selection process of all International Financial Institutions (e.g., so this means no more guaranteed job for an American as President of the World Bank), the Obama team has jumped over major roadblocks around IMF governance. It has also formed a natural alliance with large emerging markets (Mexico, Brazil, India, China, South Korea, South Africa, etc), who are also members of the G20; the natural next step would be to support a new MD from one of these countries. Emerging markets lending to struggling Europe, through the IMF, is something we should all get used to thinking about.

Arising directly from the G20 process and this summit therefore, the IMF gets a large amount of cash and the real opportunity to establish broader legitimacy - this should help convince countries that loans from the IMF will come on reasonable terms in the future, and this in turn should serve as a buffer against further downturn.

How much difference will this make? We don't know, but it's a sensible step. Global leadership pushing hard in the right direction is surely much better than what the world experienced before Barack Obama became President.


22 Comments

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Hmm...

Well, according to this piece the Americans are wise and far-seeing and sound, while the Europeans are silly and blinkered and locked in the grip of reactionary obsessions. Is it really that easy? How did Europeans suddenly grow so uniformly dumb, and incapable of looking after their own interests?

Instead of fixating on whether the Great Obama is able to exercise "leadership" over the benighted Europeans, couldn't we get a bit more attention on how to put our intercontinental heads together, engage in some give and take, and work on an agenda that takes the sometimes competing priorities of different nations into account?

The French are pushing a bold internationalist plan for global financial market regulation. Is that just another dotty European obsession? Comments?

Couldn't it be that the European approach is self-interestedly rational, since they are counting on us to do most the heavy stimulus lifting, and to pull the world out of recession? Why should they add government debt and inflationary pressure, if they can just sit back and wait on us to get it done?

Could it be that Europeans, with a stronger safety net built on more prudent saving, have less to worry about in terms of unemployment and dislocation, and are thus more inclined to ride out the crisis as a necessary readjustment, with less hair-on-fire panic?

Europeans, with some reason, blame the United States, or the "Anglo-Saxons", for creating this mess by turning a mighty financial system that everyone formerly relied upon into a giant Ponzi scheme. The vast bulk of the toxicity lies in the United States. Isn't the Great American Leader going to have to eat some serious crow before we can get to a more cooperative approach?

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Simon seems to ridicule the ",i.the Germanic anti-inflation obsession.

My reading of German history is that between 1919 and 1924 inflation completely destroyed private and public pension plans that impoverished the middle classes. We all know where that ended. I happen to have much respect for the German fear of inflation. Given the political repercussions in that country, I think the great depressions and deflations that affected the rest of the world were minor. The other great inflation of the 20th century (in a major economy) was in China between 1946 and 1949. We all know how that turned out.

I wish there was a little more fear of the inflation disease in this country, just because we have been spared its ravages so far does not mean we are immune. Given what happened in the 20th century we should worry.

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They are afraid, their population is declining and growing very old......

I think its a European thing, I mean just check that pic of Obama and the Queen

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Actually, I believe Hungary post-WWII faced the worst inflation ever. The pengo was so devalued after 1946 that the new forint was issued at a rate of 400 octillion pengo to one forint. Yes, that's octillion, as in 10 to the 29th power. A forint was set at 11 to the dollar.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peng%C5%91

Makes Zimbabwe look like a model of sound monetary policy.

Many people believe that Communists in the central bank deliberately flooded the market with pengos in order to destroy the value of the property-holding class.

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So, Mr. Johnson, are we going to open the World Bank chairmanship to an open election process as well?

Call me back, or write another essay, when you're down with that.

As for commenters further down the list -- Germany, at least, doesn't calculate doesn't calculate unemployment the same way we do. Stop falling for an American right-wing argument. (For example, if you work for a temp agency, in Germany, you're considered unemployed, not employed, like here. Armed forces don't count in employment. And, they don't lock up 1 million or so marginally employable drug users.)

And, Dan, and Dr. Wu, are spot on. Wu, especially; I suspect Johnson would like to apply IMF "austerity" here at home if he could... ie., "reform" entitlements.

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Forgot to add, on the employment issue:

If you either add 2 percentage points to the US side, or knock 2 points off the German side, you'll be closer to right. As for 20 percent unemployment in parts of Germany, tis true that in some old areas of the former East Germany, it does run about that high. But, what about inner-city Detroit? DC a couple of miles from the White House?

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1) Just to point out the obvious, Germany 2009 is not Germany 1919. Things change. From my reading, in 2009, outside of Zimbabwe, almost all the current macroeconomic pressures are deflationary. Especially in the Eurozone, where fiscal policy has been hyperconservative for decades now.

2) More fear of inflation? The Fed has hardly thought of anything else for the last 30 years. What planet are you living on?

By the way, fear of inflation has long been a watchword of the folks trying to hold down working people's wages.

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Maybe we have cash bubble? That is, the Fed has pumped trillions into the money supply but consumer prices are mixed and threatening to fall in many areas.

So there are two parts to inflation. If the cash bubble collapses will the CPI inflate or deflate? On one theory all that cash out there should eventually compete for goods and services, and it could also generate up to 9x more debt.

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Well. This is interesting. Any lawyers in the house?

As of 5:31 a.m. today, March 31, 2009 A.D., the United States officially declared insolvency as to its obligations allegedly payable to theFederal Reserve Banks.

See Delivery Confirmation information below, as provided by the USPS Track & Confirm Internet system of notification via email.

The fully hyperlinked version of that DECLARATION OF INSOLVENCY is here on the Internet:

http://www.supremelaw.org/cc/fox2/insolvency.htm

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It means nothing. This is just some bogus filing by a guy (not a lawyer) who claims to be acting as a Private Attorney General on behalf of the government. Needless to say, a private citizen can't act on behalf of the government and declare it to be bankrupt

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Angela Merkel


You gotta' rub her back--*everyone knows that...


*Included in the secret instruction note left in the oval office desk....

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The Europeans proposed to raise this to $500bn, which seems still low - particularly as it's mostly European countries that have a pressing need to borrow; you guessed it, the Germans don't want to put up more.

It's interesting to compare this episode to the peso crisis in '94, when the Europeans basically told Rubin and Summers that Mexico was their problem, not the IMF's.

Shoe's on the other foot now, and I'm glad to see that Obama isn't taking the position that turnabout is fair play. The stakes are too high for that.

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That's an awfully quick and easy dismissal of the Europeans' regulatory agenda at the summit. I'd very much like to see someone at TPM (or elsewhere) take seriously the French-German proposals for multinational financial regulatory uber-agencies. Good idea? Bad idea? Please address them on their own merits, rather than just giving the usual condescending American back of the hand.

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A couple of commenters have stated it politely, but I'll say it simpler: The US broke it - let the US fix it.

Europe (except the UK) has tighter regulations of the financial sector, health care for all, generally generous unemployment insurance/benefits, in short: social safety net entitlements making sure spending increases automatically when employment is up, and so on.

So the European economies basically don't need "Obama leadership". And please stop pretending that Obama has anything but the US interest in mind here.

Obama is great in many ways, including knowing what his job is. And it is not caring for Europeans. Pretending that he is, is insulting your readers' intelligence.

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Esteemed economists have debunked this notion that Europe has safeguards so don't need to worry about recessions/depressions.

I think considering parts of Germany have 20% unemployment and youths involved in violent hate groups, it may be worth their while to be a little more concerned about the coming economic pain.

Also, as far as the US "causing" this. Really? Why then is Iceland bankrupt? Why did Eastern Europe's housing bubble burst? Why did Deutsche Bank and Swiss UBS get up to their eyeballs in CDS?

The global commodity and real estate bubble knows no national boundries. But it is not surprising that Europe, which tends to blame all of their problems on others, continues with their tiresome old ways.

But more importantly, this crisis shows that the EU doesn't work well. The whole of the EU is held hostage by recalcitrant Germany and its conservative assholes (Angela Merkel & Co).


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You raise several questions, which make me want to ask back: Which "esteemed economists" do you refer to?

Also, I don't say Europeans "don't have to worry", but there can't be any doubt that the social safety system has a certain level of automatic increased spending built-in at rising unemployment. Higher unemployment benefits were considered crucial in the US package, so I guess it is a good thing in the European context, too.

Iceland went bankrupt because they had three fairly large banks (fairly small banks by US standards, I guess), which were leveraged badly in the US sub-prime securities. The banks went under, they were not bailed out. Iceland as a country (population 300 000) was bailed out by Denmark, Norway and Sweden.

Several large European banks bought into bad investments in the US, too, that's true. Which is my point. All (or, I'll concede a little: Way more than 90 %) of the troubled assets are in the US housing / sub-prime bubble, they were backed up by US rating agencies, and so on. The housing bubble and the sub-crime crisis happened in the US, for lack of or misguided regulation. Sure, there are other problems around, but this was the big one.

So, yeah, I think it is fair to say that the global economic downturn is a ripple effect of the US housing bubble / sub-prime / housing derivative-securities / credit-default swap scheme.

I acknowledge that you see it differently, but I don't understand why.

EU has its own set of big proglems, which I could go on and on about, but the thesis above was that Obama was acting altruistically, to "save Europe", in making the Europeans to do certain things.

Honestly, I think Obama is looking after US interests here - which is what I would expect him to. If he weren't people should be crying wolf.

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This seems a v thoughtful report, the best sum-up of the conference I've seen. Particularly interesting on Obama's IMF push. Thanks for posting.

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Recognize Simon Johnson for what he is: a cheerleader for "anglo-saxon" capitalism. Moreover, he feels that if our economy listened to the geniuses at MIT (where he is) rather than to the best and brightest at Wall Street (usually Harvard MBA's) we'd be in much better shape. That's a close call-- I think they both destroyed the country. Why? Wall Streeters flip paper and make or made a huge buck that way. They lied, cheated, gambled and untimely lost big time.

21st century technologists have given us just what, compared to say, electricity, engines,oil of the early 20th century? Sure, mathematical geniuses at MIT and the University of Chicago recently figured out securitizing subprime mortages would spread risk and would never fail. These Nobel geniuses were wrong!

Capitalism has finally developed its own economic weapons of mass destruction: cdo's, quants, credit default swaps, securitization, mega-million dollar salaries. Combine this with the usual greed, fraud and avarice and you have a killer system. Except it will kill itself.


Is there a way out? Possibly. Energy wars have been and will be our undoing. That and our continuing policy of salvaging banks that are too corrupt to exist. Three simple ideas: cut our energy use in half, cut our military in half (we already have a nuclear submarine fleet that is armed with enough nuclear weapons to destroy the world many times over AND these subs are impervious to a first strike)and let the BIG BANKS go down the tubes.

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Japan agrees with the US/UK-- Germany is being stubborn and wrongheaded.

I'm also amazed that their hardline absolutist "Nein" has precluded some kind of quid pro quo -- more fiscal stimulus by the EU in exchange for more financial regulation along the lines that Germany and France want. That would be win-win, but I fear that the hardline by Germany refuses any compromise.

It's funny that China is a far more cooperative international actor at the moment.

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One more thing to consider about Angela Merkel -- a stubborn rightwing free marketers ala Boehner/Cantor -- she is not in a good political position to cooperate with the US.

She risks being criticized from the left and looking weak, in comparisons to the more anti-American left who could easily go populist on her.

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While Merkel certainly isn't in a political position where she has a lot of room to maneuver, it is important to keep in mind that Europe as a whole is clearly to the left of the US spectrum.

Most of the socalled conservative parties in Europe is to the left of the democratic party in the US, certainly to the left of the blue dog types. Every Western European country has natioanl, single-payer health, since 50-60 years, much higher tax rates than Massachusetts, strong labour protections, and so on.

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It's funny that China is a far more cooperative international actor at the moment.
Get used to it. Thanks to the events of the last 30 or so years, the US and China are in many ways one big, tangled (and in many ways massively fucked-up) economy. They own our huge debt; we buy the consumer goods that fuel their growth, which keeps their gov't in power.

The Europeans, Japanese, Indians, etc, are pretty well entangled in that web too, but the US and the Chinese have by far the most power and the biggest stakes.

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