Rethinking Can't Happen Fast Enough

Thanks for joining this book club conversation about The Tyranny of Dead Ideas. The book is about how we get trapped in old ways of thinking that end up really hurting us -- about the threat now posed to our economy by the things we think we know. Look at the last 18 months and you'll see how this explains much of what's happened. The failure to explode a Dead Idea -- that Financial Markets Can Regulate Themselves -- got us into today's economic ditch (as even Alan Greenspan, the chief apostle of that perverse notion, now admits). But unless we now expose and move past the other Dead Ideas at the heart of the book - on health care, taxes, trade, schools, and the very idea of capitalism being an economic meritocracy - we won't find our way back to a durable prosperity.
When it comes to how we think about the world, I believe we're in a situation like 1928.
In 1928, if you had asked people whether the federal government should take aggressive steps to fight economic downturns, or to help senior citizens avoid poverty in old age, or to ease the pain until jobless Americans could get back on their feet, most would have said no. "Rugged individualism" was the ethic of the age. By 1940, however, these propositions were considered common sense. The climate of opinion had been transformed by events.
We're not going to have another Great Depression; with government throwing trillions in spaghetti against the wall via new stimulus and bank rescue plans, enough will stick, however imperfectly, to avoid calamity. But the current crisis has nonetheless brought us to the cusp of another revolution in the way we think about economic life, and thus in how we view the role of government, corporations and much else in a global era. This rethinking can't happen fast enough. The trouble, of course, is that many of these Dead Ideas are sacred cows (for example, the idea that "Taxes Hurt the Economy" and that "Schools Are A Local Matter").
You can't open the paper these days without seeing these Dead Ideas colliding unsustainably with new realities. The shocking AIG bonuses, and the whole corrupt culture of compensation on Wall Street, for example, has exposed the limits of the Dead Idea that "Money Follows Merit" - that is, the notion widely held among the educated class in America that under market capitalism, people basically end up, economically, where they deserve to. As we see outsized fortunes going to people not through the rewards of the "free market" but because of rigged systems that reward mediocrity or failure as much as success, it's opening our eyes to the myth of this link between merit and financial reward. As we turn our eyes from the undeserving rich to everyday Americans, I believe the death of this idea will awaken our empathy to the way millions of struggling families are being buffeted by forces beyond their control in ways that inspire fresh progressive efforts to bolster opportunity and security in a wealthy nation like the U.S.
Or take taxes. Last Friday's report from the Congressional Budget Office showing deficits likely to be trillions higher than the already epic red ink being forecast by the Obama team underscores an undiscussable fact in our political life: after this recession is past (and it will pass), taxes are going up over the next decade no matter who is in power -- and not just on the "rich." Taxes have to rise because we'll be retiring the baby boom, and that means doubling the number of people on Social Security and Medicare. There are already $50 trillion in unfunded promises in these programs. The math simply doesn't work at current levels of taxation. One of the Dead Ideas in the book is that "Taxes Hurt The Economy (And They're Always Too High)." I say that because even though higher taxes are inevitable, the economy, for reasons I go into, will be fine - something neither party will discuss today for obvious political reasons. Yet the inevitability of higher taxes gives us an opportunity to change the way we raise the revenue we need in ways better for American prosperity. In my view this means such reforms as cutting regressive taxes on payrolls, and raising them on dirty energy.
Anyway, these are some of my thoughts to kick things off. But I'd be curious what others think. Do you agree that the ideas I call dead in the book are truly dead? Which seem most important to bury? How can we put them out of our misery in ways that help us get the traction we need on long term economic renewal? Are there big Dead Ideas I've missed? And how will this play out? I argue in the book that the pressure of events - both from today's crisis and the continuing march of globalization and technological change - will force changes in our national mindset on all this in the years ahead. Does that feel right? Or do we need new political coalitions to take these Dead Ideas on, and what might that look like?
I appreciate my colleagues (and TPM Café readers) who've taken the time to engage on the book's ideas and look forward to our discussion.




















I think this is one of the most pernicious "dead ideas" (it may be more of a Frankenstein idea that was once dead but wasn't buried deep enough). Instead of taking this idea off life support, we hear more about how social security and medicare need to be scaled back.
I read recently that the top nine countries in per capita GDP are the "Norse" countries (Switzerland, Norway, etc.). They're all socialist to greater or lesser degrees and have relatively high taxes. But the quality of life is increased by magnitudes when government ensures quality services and safety nets in communal areas health care, education, unemployment, retirement, etc.
March 23, 2009 4:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
As we turn our eyes from the undeserving rich to everyday Americans, I believe the death of this idea will awaken our empathy to the way millions of struggling families are being buffeted by forces beyond their control in ways that inspire fresh progressive efforts to bolster opportunity and security in a wealthy nation like the U.S.
Let's not just pin our hopes on the force of empathy. We now face a tremendous opportunity to address problems of gross inequality and economic waste and opportunity cost, as manifested for example in our absurd salary structures, on the score of economic rationality. For too long we have let conservatives portray themselves as the guys who best understood the cold but effective engineering of wealth and economic product, while liberals were content to see themselves as offering a a more compassionate alternative that accepted the conservative picture about strict economic efficiency and rationality, but worked in some kinder and gentler touches that softened the rough edges.
That is wrong. The conservative approach is not optimally productive and efficient, even leaving aside the humane concerns about the harshness of life in a free market system. A move to the left will not just be more compassionate. It can result in greater economic efficiency, more aggregate prosperity, and improvements in sustainability. There is a vast store of untapped economic potential that needs to be liberated from the conservative fetish for free markets, decentralized groping, and endless faith in invisible hands and emergent benefits. We have come nowhere near to meeting our potential, because we have neglected national strategic economic planning and organized public investment. These have a vital role to play. We need a better balance between organized social effort, on the one hand, and decentralized and unplanned individual initiative on the other.
Many people were formerly persuaded that whether or not people at the top "deserved" or "merited" their pay, nevertheless there were good utilitarian reasons from maintaining a system that allowed them to make and keep that level of compensation. It had been argued that these arrangements are economically efficient. The story was that the wages reflect the free market price for their services; and that those unregulated prices are the best means to manage the allocation of economic resources, including the resource of managerial talent. It was held that only with those extravagant incentives could we be assured of getting the right people in the right places to produce the benefits that flowed down to everyone.
This is now much harder for the average person to believe. And with good reason: because it is false. It seems fairly clear that the setting of wages at the higher end in our society is some kind of cooperative racket in which the wealthiest assist one another in siphoning wealth out of the system for unproductive and wasteful enjoyments at the margin. The money that is wasted on this parasitical behavior could be plowed back into investment in the firm, or used to compensate lower-paid employees who would derive higher marginal value for their consumption. It also seems more plausible to everyone now that these uber-earners at the top of the scale are grossly over-incentivized, and that we could get similar, or better, performance out of individuals who, while well-paid, would draw a significantly smaller salary. Finally, we can now see pretty clearly that the extravagant salaries actually generate perverse incentives for excessive risk-taking and Ponzi behavior, producing a class of flim-flam artists who create economic messes, but are clever enough to cash out and sell them to suckers, so that others pay the bill.
The means the wealthy use for extorting these resources are complex, but they include the threat of going elsewhere. Public policy needs to put an end this racket. Salaries in any firm should be legally maxed-out at a fixed multiple of the firm's lowest paid employee. This ties managers to the well-being of their firms, and makes sure that the only way they can raise their own salaries is by raising the salaries of everyone up and down the pay scale.
March 23, 2009 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
What Dan said.
March 23, 2009 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would like to see the "party of the left" in this country recover its old left-liberal roots, which were a fusion product of socialism and liberalism, and throw off the excessive left-libertarianism that has dominated Democratic politics for three or four decades, and is based on the pursuits of personal gratification and self-expression and liberation. These are good things in themselves, but we need a better balance.
We are not just a gang of free agents, united only by our common desire to compete for what we want, or to free ourselves from obligations to other people. We can be an actual community or society bound together by mutual obligations, a compact for sharing the common wealth, and a democratic desire to preserve a self-governing society of political equals. I think there is a yearning among many to be part of such a society of fellows, and to escape from the individual sphere of isolation and struggle that dominates so many lives in this country.
March 23, 2009 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I enjoyed reading this book but for the sake of a more directed discussion, it might be nice if each idea is presented on a different day.
March 23, 2009 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I must start by admitting that I haven't read the book -- only material here at TPM Cafe.
But on taxes, one idea I have long advocated (which I would be VERY interested to know if it is explored in concrete detail in the book) is "socially beneficial" taxation. There is a long tradition of taxing 'bads' like alcohol and cigarettes -- so called 'sin taxes'. But the general idea here is to bring it to a whole different level.
Taxes on pollution and scarce resources are key. For example, if IN ADDITION TO and not instead of having legal limits on mercury emissions, whatever emissions there ARE were heavily taxed, it would encourage not just barely meeting the existing standards, but bringing levels down as much as possible wherever cost effective. The same could be said for toxic pesticides and other agrichemicals(in addition to banning or strictly limiting a la DDT those where the information is sufficient to move legislators and/or bureaucrats). But those where there is uncertainty, or issues like nitrogen runoff. Some have suggested a carbon tax, but in the mainstream the notion (which I suspect is wrong) that cap-and-trade is economically more efficient holds sway.
On resources, CA could both raise revenue and significantly decrease water usage by a significant tax on massive water use (over one-acre foot per year). At 40 million acre feet (much of which is in smaller units), a tax of a mere few hundred dollars PER ACRE FOOT on water would raise billions every year, and discourage the growing of crops like rice and cotton that need a lot of water. It would encourage conservation in other areas. A tax of 100% or even more on redwood wood that is cut would reduce demand, making it easier to enforce the selective cutting method and provide a revenue stream to buy up virgin acreage as well as restore (on top of penalty money) ruined land.
The list goes on, but this is something that could be a huge part of what I see as properly the next stage of industrialization -- state led though not necessarily corporate capitalism abolishing (being realistic) "eco-industrialization".
There are also taxes I have seen suggested like the STET (Securities Transaction Excise Tax) and taxing derivatives (and taxing corporations heavily for the amount of remuneration over say $500,000 for any employee (or subcontractor equivalent). Also a cause of action could be established for shareholders to sue a corporation for overcompensating its top brass.
March 23, 2009 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
March 23, 2009 8:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does it change the argument much to substitute "wrong" for "dead"? Granted that The tyranny of wrong ideas isn't as zippy a title, the trouble is that these ideas are not dead, but they were always wrong. There are truly dead ideas, no doubt--but because they are really and truly dead, nobody knows what they were. Lots of the past is dead in that way, as well. There are zombie ideas--hanging around, but not taken seriously except by persons on the fringe. The earth is flat would be a good example of a zombie idea. http://www.theflatearthsociety.org/ I think what might be a good work would be to first identify wrong ideas and then zombify them
March 23, 2009 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
It seems to me that you are stretching and distorting things in every paragraph in order to make them fit into the framework of your argument.
First off - you assumption is that "alive" or new ideas are be definition better than "dead" or old ideas. Eugenics, communism and command economy were all bright new ideas in their time destined to replace the old world that didn't work anymore.
Secondly, you make a deliberately false statement when you claim that "financial markets can regulate themselves" is actually an established "idea". The actual "idea" is that any market in a capitalist economy will self-adjust and there is a world of difference between the two interpretations. The latter deals with supply and demand and goes beyond just the financial market, while the former deals with government regulation.
In any case, the issue of regulation in this country is not all or nothing, as you, again falsely, imply. The only difference between republicans and democrats is the degree and the substance of regulation, not the fact of it, per se.
Then you move on, to "money follows merit". Sounds great and watching the flow of the $$ during the Dem primaries I would whole-heartedly agree. Except when you, once again, twist it to conveniently mean that it's either the survival of the fittest (republicans, cemetary of dead ideas) or the brotherly love (democrats, fountain of alive ideas).
An on and on it goes - if your post is any indication of what the book is about then it's lost any serious credibility by the 2nd paragraph.
No idea, political or economical, dead or alive, can be evaluated without an honest discussion of the competing ideologies behind it, because none has the monopoly on truth. Notwithstanding your exploitation of the painful topics of the day - that's a very very old writing trick and a truly dead idea.
March 23, 2009 9:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
The failure to explode a Dead Idea -- that Financial Markets Can Regulate Themselves -- got us into today's economic ditch . . . .
I suspect that this conventional wisdom will become another "Dead Idea" in the future.
We're in "today's economic ditch" -- however deep it is or isn't -- because consumers and especially, the 45-54 age group (the traditional "big spenders") are saving their money as they work to repair their balance sheets.
That a bunch of bankers and financiers may be doing poorly is a mildly interesting but ultimately irrelevant observation.
March 23, 2009 11:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
A couple of debt charts (bottom of the article) showing why the consumer has gotten religion, finally.
March 24, 2009 12:47 AM | Reply | Permalink