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Strongest Statement Yet: US Military Opposes Israeli Attack on Iran

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The neocons should not let their victory in the Chas Freeman matter go to their heads.

On their number one issue -- the issue over which they struggled successfully to defeat Freeman -- they are batting zero.

Last week, just prior to Freeman's stand down, Dennis Blair, Director of National Intelligence, told the Senate that he did not believe Iran was on the brink of going nuclear. And now, Admiral Michael Mullen, head of the Joint Chiefs, says that the US opposes Israeli military action against Iran.

Mullen could not be more emphatic. The United States is against Israeli military action. Period.

I wrote last week that the neocons' apparent victory over Freeman was an empty one. This proves it. Why? Because the main issue the neocons care about is not settlements, not Gaza, not Israel, itself, in fact. It is Iran. They want the Iran nuclear question resolved militarily not diplomatically. And they want the regime brought down.

I guess they will have to wait for the Palin/Wurzelbacher administration. Obama will focus on diplomacy.

****
By popular request, here is my letter on Chas Freeman that led off the New York Times' letters column.


50 Comments

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Are U.S. brass foreswearing an attack on Iran because they think it's a bad idea - or because they know we can't afford it? There's no question we would be swept into this debacle, even if Israel flew the sorties; we would have to participate in the mop-up, at least. If the meltdown hadn't occured, and we were still bubbling along economically, where would official U.S. policy be then?

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Either way, I'll take it for the time being.

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The "nuclear question" is itself a construct of the Neo-Cons and the pro-Israeli lobby. Iran has a perfectly legal nuclear program that goes back to the days of the Shah, when it was set up with the assistance and encouragement of the United States. After 7 years of intensive scrutiny and hype, not an iota of evidence of a prohibited nuclear weapons program has emerged. That's why Iran's accusers have resorted to using vague, open-ended accusations against Iran, ie that Iran seeks a nuclear weapons "capability" (whatever that means) or has the "intent" to build nukes at some indefinite point in the future.

The fact is that Israel sees a rapprochement between the US and Iran as a threat to its strategic value and interests, and is working hard to prevent that.

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Who are these "neocons" working for? America or Israel? At what point does looking out, and advocating, for the interests of a foreign country become treason?

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That's the issue, isn't it? Where is the line?

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Boy, it really pays to do some fact-checking on these posts.

Here's the Haaretz article he links to:

Asked by interviewer Charlie Rose of PBS television what would happen if Israel attacked Iran, Mullen, referring to the frequent statement that "all options are on the table," said such an "option generates a much higher level of risk in terms of outcomes in the region and it really concerns me."

From this, MJ derives the statement that "The United States is against Israeli military action. Period." as if the US had made an absolute, categorical statement to that effect.

Now to be clear, it is apparent that there is a lot of skepticism about a military response and a strong fear that an Israel action in Iran could cause widespread instability. But that has always been the case. That's the case in Israel too. In other words, nothing substantive seems to have changed.

What's more, the article even says Mullen explicitly left open the military option if diplomacy fails:

Mullen commented favorably on President Barack Obama's plan to begin a dialogue with Iran, but said that if this dialogue fails and Iran acquires nuclear weapons, the U.S. might take military action.

And here's another distortion: MJ cites the quote from Dennis Blair saying that the Iranians are not on the brink of going nuclear, clearly implying that the Obama Administration is more skeptical about this that are Israelis. But in the same Haaretz article, Mullen is quoted as saying that the US and Israel are in agreement about Iranian nuclear capability:

Mullen said that he and Ashkenazi are "by and large" in agreement on Iran's progress toward obtaining nuclear weapons - namely, that it will not happen before 2010 - and that any discrepancies between the Israeli and American estimates are insignificant. He said the two men have been in agreement on this issue for the "better part of the last six months or so. There was a time that we weren't, but we've actually worked pretty hard to understand where we both are and so I think generally, we're in agreement."

Now this of course says nothing about what the right course of action on Iran should be. But what is so annoying is that nothing MJ writes here can be taken at face value. It has to be fact-checked. Can't we agree that regardless of where you stand on this issue, we should expect posts with more integrity than this one?

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Sorry, Brad. If you could read Hebrew, you'd know that I am reporting it precisely as it is being reported in Israel.
Of course, he Ha'aretz piece is in English so you must be reading something else.

Had you only been around in the 1930's, you would have been such a good reasoned defender of the Moscow trials. You are utterly brainwashed.

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"Had you only been around in the 1930's, you would have been such a good reasoned defender of the Moscow trials."

Ooo, that was cold, M.J.! :)

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Well, I do find the "Israel is always right" crowd very reminiscent of 1930's Communists. Each turns on a dime to reflect the views from on high.

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On a more serious note, BTD is continuing the neo-con policy of fixing facts around policy. When Obama reaches out to Iran it does threaten the Isarelis. As the British proved last week taking excessive offense at Obama's perceived slights, nation states feel very threatened when their centrality to Superpower policy erodes.

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So let me get this straight.

The substance of the article you link to in your post, which does not support that post, is not what is being reported in the Hebrew-language press?

Really?

Now I'll admit my Hebrew is not up to verifying this one way or another. But let me ask a simple question: Since Adm. Mullen was interviewed in English, shouldn't we take the quotations in English as definitive in terms of conveying what he meant? It seems pretty clear that while he is rightly skeptical about military action against Iran, he hasn't ruled anything out.

Sorry - your shots at me, while creative and no doubt amusing to your fans, don't change the fact that you wrote an inaccurate and dishonest post. And I say this as someone who happens, on this particular issue anyway, to agree with you (i.e. I think an Israeli strike on Iran would be a disaster).

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Great letter in the Times, M.J., and great rebuttal to BradtheDad's comment.

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Good punch letter in the Times! Straight, no chaser!

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sorry, "punchy"

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Well, the juxtaposition with the following letter by David Harris of the AJC was priceless (What Israel Lobby? Why didn't Freeman defend his views publicly?). Who says irony is dead?

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"What I worry about in terms of an attack on Iran is in addition to the immediate effect, the effect of the attack, it's the unintended consequences," Mullen said. "So I worry about the responses and I worry about it escalating in ways that we couldn't predict. So that kind of option generates a much higher level of risk in terms of outcomes in the region and it really concerns me."

Let me try to amplify on Adm. Mullen's comment:

The casino is closed - and we're stranded in the desert, wearing a barrel, without a pot to piss in, but still yapping about "all options on the table" until the cows come home, the sky falls and the balmy Mojave glaciates.



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Obama wants to make a deal with the Russians. He wants to exchange a missile defense shield that does not work to stop nuclear weapons that don't exist. What a deal! The Russians are rightly saying 'net'. After all it was Bush who uni-laterally ended the ABM treaty which would have prevented the development of such missiles in the first place.

The Attack-Iran drones are living in fantasy. There are no military solutions.

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There is a photo of the president of Iran walking through a set of centrifuges - the photo has been widely circulated - take a look at the centrifuges - they are no taller than a man.

Those centrifuges are OLD and outmoded. The current design is a much, much taller machine. I think the Iranians are not serious about their project. They like to pretend they are serious.

And the Americans like to pretend the Iranians are serious. Therefore this whole issue is a puppet show.

A puppet show is put on to gull the rubes. Oh, look, Mr Citizen - a bad guy with a beard might get a weapon !!

Read Maj. General Smedley Butler, War Is A Racket.

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Thanks for that link. General Butler is worth reading.

The current puppet show is about Iran-has-the-bomb. It is astounding that anyone can take this seriously. The same liars are making up this lie that made up the other lies that gulled most people.

Anyone who had been following the 'aluminum tubes' story before the invasion of Iraq was forewarned. The 'aluminum tubes' story had already been debunked before the US revived it as a casus belli.

So before the invasion it was easy to see that the highest US officials were lying outrageously - lying every day; escalating their lies every time they were questioned. Once they had the news organizations on board, they just made lying a full time occupation.

The news organizations should clap a stopper over these capers. What is wrong with the news industry ?

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You might have already seen this documentary, but it's a must see that will answer some of your questions about the media:
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/btw/watch.html

It's also worth noting that the O.S.S. had strong operational ties with our media during WW2, and it was a point of pride for reporters to help out with the war effort. This relationship continued with the creation of the C.I.A., and it survived the JFK coup.

It started to break down as the Vietman war dragged on, but likely picked back up with the media consolidation of the 80's.

Also google Operation Mockingbird, Henry Luce, and Philip Graham (of the Washington Post.)

Google Cord Meyer Jr, the principle operative of Operation Mockingbird whose wife was longtime friends and suspected mistress of JFK.

There are some Operation Mockingbird documents available on the internet that give talking points to the many C.I.A. participants in media on how to handle and dismiss the high number of suspicious deaths of witnesses in the JFK murder, including Meyer's ex-wife and suspected JFK mistress, who was shot in '64.

Have a field day!

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A short while ago, I heard a "breaking" on MSNBC that it has been confirmed that the U.S. shot down an Iranian drone well within Iraqi airspace on February 25.

I just checked google news and the print reports on it started to come out an hour or so ago; here's Reuters for one example.

This should mix things up on topic somewhat, no?

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U.S. military say they think it went off-course. Nothing to do with nuclear delivery systems, much less nuclear devices.

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so comments have to be approved before appearing on this particular posting?

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Did you try to post a comment with more than two links in it? If you do so, you get a message that the comment is being held for review by management. It's an automatic spam filter. In the experience of many other users, such a comment will never be published, as no one here in management appears to check that hold file. You should resubmit, and if you have more than two links, break them up into a comment and a reply to the comment.

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that's what happened, I had three links in the comment. I didn't save it though. Don't have the energy to re-create the whole thing, then post separate comments because of the link rule.

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Beware that other sites have this too. One example I recall is that it happened to me on The Atlantic when Yglesias was there, exact same announcement and everything. No manager geek types ever seem to think that users might need a warning about it above the comment box, it's just one of those many secrets users are supposed to figure out, I guess.

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I learned the "three links and you're out" lesson the hard way. Hopefully, you saved what you had to say somewhere.

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That which you cite suggests to me that Obama has decided to continue with the Bush plan, as advised by Gates. See especially the bold paragraph:

U.S. Rejected Aid for Israeli Raid on Iranian Nuclear Site By DAVID E. SANGER Published: January 10, 2009

White House officials never conclusively determined whether Israel had decided to go ahead with the strike before the United States protested, or whether Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of Israel was trying to goad the White House into more decisive action before Mr. Bush left office. But the Bush administration was particularly alarmed by an Israeli request to fly over Iraq to reach Iran’s major nuclear complex at Natanz, where the country’s only known uranium enrichment plant is located.

The White House denied that request outright, American officials said, and the Israelis backed off their plans, at least temporarily. But the tense exchanges also prompted the White House to step up intelligence-sharing with Israel and brief Israeli officials on new American efforts to subtly sabotage Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, a major covert program that Mr. Bush is about to hand off to President-elect Barack Obama.

This account of the expanded American covert program and the Bush administration’s efforts to dissuade Israel from an aerial attack on Iran emerged in interviews over the past 15 months....

Mr. Bush was extensively briefed on options for an overt American attack on Iran’s facilities, he never instructed the Pentagon to move beyond contingency planning, even during the final year of his presidency, contrary to what some critics have suggested.

The interviews also indicate that Mr. Bush was convinced by top administration officials, led by Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, that any overt attack on Iran would probably prove ineffective, lead to the expulsion of international inspectors and drive Iran’s nuclear effort further out of view. Mr. Bush and his aides also discussed the possibility that an airstrike could ignite a broad Middle East war in which America’s 140,000 troops in Iraq would inevitably become involved.

Instead, Mr. Bush embraced more intensive covert operations actions aimed at Iran, the interviews show....

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Thanks for the fine to-the-point NY Times letter.

Looking forward to hearing more about the neo-cons and Iran. They were beating the bemoses out of that drum a year or two ago and, for once, George Wetbehindtheears Bush was NOT suckered in. As incurably addicted to deception as the neo-cons are, the Iranians (in this particular respect) are even worse, so BS detecters need to be fully activated in multiple directions.

That said, it would be highly interesting to learn more about which neo-cons are hyping the Iranian situation, what they are saying, what they hope to gain, how many of them have meanwhile donated money towards the $3 trillion cost of the Iraqi escapade they cheerled, how many of these rabid hawks or their family members have ever served in the US military, etc.

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I find myself in the unfamiliar, somewhat uncomfortable position of agreeing with Brad: MJ is overhyping what Mullen said.
And why argue over the English vs. the Hebrew editions of Haaretz? As Jon Stewart would say: "Roll tape."
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/8981
What Brad and MJ both seem to miss is the extent to which Mullen is expressing personal opinions in the Charlie Rose interview, specifically where he and Ashkenazi agree on the timeline for a possible Iranian nuke of 2010-2015.
But, as Mullen concedes, that's only IF Iran moves to reprocess all its low-enriched uranium into highly enriched uranium.
It could not happen secretly, and so it is not going to happen. Period.
Mullen says he "believes" Iran is seeking a nuclear weapon. As Gates has made clear, the evidence does not back him up.

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I wonder if the world would be a safer, more stable place if Iran already had nukes.

If not that, I strongly suspect the world would be more stable if Israel gave up its nukes, creating more military balance in the region.

I would be much more sympathetic to Israel's intentionally exaggerated concerns if they didn't already have nukes, and wanted to maintain balance, instead of trying to prevent balance.

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Mullen wants to keep his job.
He cannot be quoted giving controversial opinions.
He cannot keep his job if he has powerful enemies.
He is quite replaceable.

It would be surprising if he let his views stray in the slightest from the deniable.

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Although we may disagree, you are afaircanuck.

I am not well-versed in these matters, but I would not be so certain that Iran is not planning on reprocessing its low-grade uranium. Seems to me that Iran might be holding out on this last step both for domestic political reasons as well as to gain concessions from the West. The fact that Iran suspended its weapons program while continuing its nuclear efforts is not terribly reassuring. One must ask why Iran is interested in reprocessing at all given that they are sitting on a good portion of the world's oil reserves.

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Unlike Israel, Iran is a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
The processing it is doing, under international monitoring, is precisely the kind permitted to all members of the NPT. In fact, Iran began its civilian nuclear program -- with U.S. backing -- under the shah in the 1970s. The argument he made back then (and it's true today) is that the oil will eventually run out.
Does Iran want concessions? Yes, it's demanded a non-aggression pledge from the U.S. It won't give up the right to enrich in return, but it would accept even stricter IAEA inspections.
You worry about Iran taking the "last step" of enriching its low-grade uranium to weapons-grade.
That is a higher step than the Iran-war party pretends it is; if Iran started right now, the average estimate is it could have enough material for a single bomb in mid-2012.
But, as I said, it can't be done secretly. Openly going for a weapon would give the bomb-Iran faction all the international justification they want. And lots of time in which to do it.
Contrary to the hype, the Iranians are not insane. They are not going to bet everything on building one nuclear device in order to threaten countries that have stockpiled hundreds if not thousands of them.
I blogged earlier to the effect that Canada is closer to a bomb than Iran:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/acanuck/2009/03/red-alert-canada-has-ability-t.php#comments
Fair warning.

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One must ask why Iran is interested in reprocessing at all given that they are sitting on a good portion of the world's oil reserves.

Although they have large reserves, they don't have refining facilities (for some reason I'm not clear on). The Iranians actually have to re-import refined fuel for domestic use. They could build some refineries rather than nuclear plants, but apparently in the ME nuclear is seen as a more "modern" type of energy; it's got some sort of cachet that oil refineries just don't have.

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Actually, Iran is running out of oil. It has great oil reserves but is also a great consumer. Currently it consumes 40% of its production -- and rising. That's why the US encouraged Iran to go nuclear in the first place.

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the point is simple.
of course israel wants to attack and destroy as much of iran as possible.
iran is the last country willing to stand up to them and the usa.
but they need to use their shills in this country to do the fighting.
any attack on iran will be a catastrophe for this country and the middle east .

israel as is their m.o. does not want their fingerprints at the scene.

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The neocons should not let their victory in the Chas Freeman matter go to their heads.

Neocons?! Bouncing a guy from a an intel job that has been on the payroll directly or indirectly of both the Saudis and the Chinese should be the obvious move to anyone.

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Since when are Chait, Goldberg, Pelosi and Schumer neocons? Is their goal a military strike against Iran? Calling all of Freeman's detractors "neocons" or part of a coordinated "Israel Lobby - is no less accurate than accusing those who take a contrary position "anti-semitic." Both are copouts that only stifle debate.

The debate over Blair's words illustrates why Freeman's foes did themselves no favors, though not for the reasons MJ posits above. As Fred Kaplan explains in Slate (http://www.slate.com/id/2213468/):

"Chas Freeman is a high-profile figure. He became one by his own design, through public speeches, some of them deliberately provocative. Making him NIC chairman would—unjustly but unavoidably—hurl all intelligence, and all policy based on intelligence, into the fray of fractious politics.

However, this is where Freeman's foes misplayed their hand. Had they let Freeman step into the job, they could have used him as the whipping boy for all foreign-policy measures they don't like—especially those involving the Middle East and China—and it might have been easier for them to rally opposition. But now it will be indisputably clear that the president is the one making policy. They're left with Barack Obama as their target—and one thing that's clear, so far, is that those who sling mud at Obama wind up hitting themselves."

Finally, with respect to the NYT letters, as the esteemed artappraiser pointed out on my own (humble) blog, the NYT letters often hit the crux of an issue as concisely as threads that take days to play out. The four letters on Freeman sketched the contours of the debate that unfolded over weeks here at TPM Cafe. Props to the editors on this one.

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Schumer has no particular views, one way or another. It's just politics. But the others all take the neocon view on the Mideast so they are neocons.

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I would be extremely surprised if any of them supported the Likud platform or favored the type of aggressive military response to Iran that the real neocons are pushing. As you must surely recognize, many of those who came out against Freeman oppose the right-wing agenda on Israel.

I was agnostic about Freeman, not because he had the temerity to criticize Israel (sometimes IMHO fairly, sometimes less so), but because his criticisms struck me as exclusively one-sided, without any recognition of the very real dangers and aggression Israel has faced. And although I was not part of the debate, I am definitely not a neocon!

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Right. Nancy Pelosi. Neocon. I'm sure that will be good for a laugh in her office.

I think it's pretty clear what MJ's definition of a neocon is: anyone who disagrees with him on Israel.

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Mystery solved: There are neo-cons and there are spineless Congresspersons who are afraid what happened to Freeman might happen to them. Hypocrisy and cowardice make strange but common bedfellows.

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If Israel attacks Iran, Iran can't help us in Afghanistan and we need their help there. The Iranians helped us when we initially invaded Afghanistan and their help was invaluable. Their assisstance dropped off after a certain 'boy-king' labeled them as part of the 'axis of evil'.

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There is no such thing as neoconservatism. There is no such thing as neoconservatism. There is no such thing as neoconservatism.

Walt and Mearsheimer made it all up. Walt and Mearsheimer made it all up.Walt and Mearsheimer made it all up. Walt and Mearsheimer made it all up.

It was about China and not just Israel. It was about China, and not just Israel. It was about China, and not just Israel.

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Oh My!

During a visit to Washington, D.C., Ashkenazi met with Dennis Ross, the designated U.S. envoy to the Persian Gulf, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to discuss the Iranian issue. The IDF chief told Ross that Israel would not tolerate a nuclear Iran. He said that a diplomatic approach to Iran's contentious nuclear program must be taken first, but said Israel must also prepare for other possibilities. --- Haaretz

In other words, you can try diplomacy, but only for a short while. We know it's going to fail. So can we start a war after that, pretty please!

This is delusional. Israel is living in a fantasy world where they always win a war or replay the last one done better. The Israeli leadership thinsk they can attack Iran and, within a short time after that, go on as business as usual. The Israel leaderes are blinded by the lust for war. Its actions will unleash a catastrophe for the region, for itself, and for the US.

May sanity prevail!

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