Getting Lehman Wrong a Second Time
There are few economists who would defend the decision to allow Lehman Brothers to go bankrupt last September. Its collapse induced a worldwide panic that sent stock markets plummeting and caused credit to freeze up. In the subsequent months, the downturn went into over-drive, with the United States losing almost three million jobs from October through February.
This set of events has led almost everyone to conclude that the trio who let Lehman go under - Treasury secretary Henry Paulson, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke and the then-head of the New York Fed, Timothy Geithner - erred badly in this decision. That seems a reasonable judgment.
However, the conventional wisdom includes a corollary that is much less obvious: because the Lehman bankruptcy was a disaster, US taxpayers must honour in full all the debts of all the banks.
This corollary could put US taxpayers on the hook for trillions of dollars in commitments that the Wall Street boys apparently made on our behalf. Before we cough up the dough, we might want to consider whether Paulson, Bernanke and Geithner were not quite as stupid as the current conventional wisdom would imply.
The problems that followed from Lehman did not just stem from the fact that the government was not honouring Lehman's debts. This was an uncontrolled bankruptcy of a huge investment bank in a world where the official line was still that everything was under control. The Washington Post had even run a column the day before Lehman's collapse ridiculing those who were making negative comments about the state of the economy.
In this context, an uncontrolled bankruptcy of a major investment bank was sort of like a sledge hammer in the face: a rather rude and unexpected blow. The most immediate consequence was that Reserve Primary, one of the largest money-market mutual funds in the world, suddenly could not pay its shareholders in full, because it had tens of billions invested in Lehman. In the wake of Lehman's bankruptcy, Reserve Primary did not know how much, if any, of this investment it could recover. In the post-Lehman world banks could suddenly no longer trust each other, and the interbank lending rate went through the roof.
But now we have had six months to adjust. The Fed and Treasury are now guaranteeing deposits in money-market mutual funds. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation doubled the size of the bank accounts it guarantees, and non-interest-bearing accounts of any size are guaranteed. In addition, the Fed is now lending hundreds of billions of dollars directly to non-financial corporations, establishing a channel of funding that goes outside the banking system.
These and other measures have restored some measure of stability to the financial system. Now that we have these measures in place, is it still true that we can't subject Citigroup, Bank of America or Goldman Sachs to a managed bankruptcy (aka "nationalisation") without the world coming to an end?
With a managed bankruptcy, all the insured deposits would be fully covered. However, the government would only repay bondholders a portion of their investment, depending on how severe the banks' losses are. By not compensating bondholders in full for their losses, the government could save taxpayers hundreds of billions, perhaps even trillions, of dollars.
In addition, a managed bankruptcy would also help to address the problem of moral hazard created by the bailouts thus far. Investors did not pay adequate attention to the health of banks and other large financial institutions like AIG because they assumed that the government would bail them out if things went badly. If the government makes these investors eat some of their losses, maybe they will put more thought into their investment strategies in the future. This could also let some big investors make some of the "sacrifices" for which fiscal conservatives - including some big investors - are so eager.
The silence of the fiscal conservatives on the vast sums going to the banks is hard to understand. After all, how can someone get so upset about the prospect of $200m being spent to re-sod the National Mall in Washington, but be unconcerned when $160bn - almost 1,000 times as much money - goes out the door to AIG?
The sums of money going to bail out the financial industry dwarf the waste and pork that get John McCain and other budget hawks excited. Yet they are strangely calm about the bailout money. In fact, the amount we spent patching the financial system could well be large enough to make the Social Security system fully solvent over its 75-year planning horizon, yet we barely hear a peep from the Peter Peterson Foundation and its merry band of anti-Social Security crusaders.
The only answer we ever get in response is that we have no choice. But just six months ago, Henry Paulson, Ben Bernanke and Timothy Geithner thought we could make a much more extreme choice. They were wrong then, but they are not stupid. We should go back to the bankrupt Lehmans and see if we can do it right this time.




















I'm not sure it was a mistake to let Lehman fail. They could have organized a more orderly sale to Barclays but I don't really believe that Lehman had any legitimate claim to taxpayer money.
As for the failure of the Reserve Fund -- that fund shouldn't have been investing in Lehman debt in the first place. The Reserve Fund's managers went chasing returns and they were wrong to do that. Their investors suffered because of it. But them's the risks. The failure of the Reserve Fund is no more important than the failure of my beloved Fidelity Contrafund to successfully navigate this bear market. Us Fidelity investors lost money too but nobody seems to care about us.
March 16, 2009 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
If there is no risk for bond holders in these large financial institutions, then they are not investors but beneficiaries of a federal welfare system, and we are no longer a capitalist country. It's past time to take AIG apart. Financial institutions which are too big to fail are too big to exist. I'm just a country boy, but I know when to prune the orchard.
March 16, 2009 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Concise and to the point. People kept their money in banks because it was safe, but now we learn if our money was invested with the right firms, it was equally as safe. NICE!!!!
March 16, 2009 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is considerable fine print behind that guarantee. Only money market funds which chose to participate by paying a premium to the Treasury are insured -- so you have to check to see whether a given fund is participating. And then ONLY MONEY THAT WAS DEPOSITED IN THOSE FUNDS PRIOR TO SEPTEMBER 19, 2008 is protected!
So if you cut your losses in the first week of October, and moved your money into a money market fund, you're not guaranteed anything.
And those bond holders, who would lose money if we let another institution fail, I'm afraid some of them might be money market funds.
Nevertheless, I agree with your overall point, Dean. We should stop saying "never again", and start letting those who assumed the risks take the hits, rather than putting it all on the backs of the taxpayers.
-- ARG
March 16, 2009 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
. . . Lehman Brothers . . . collapse induced a worldwide panic that sent stock markets plummeting and caused credit to freeze up.
Prove it!
N.B. Correlation does not prove causation.
March 16, 2009 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
IIRC there isn't even correlation to support the claim.
The S&P 500 closed at 1251.70 the Friday before Lehman collapsed. It closed at 1255.08 the Friday after Lehman collapsed. So much for "stock markets plummeting."
March 16, 2009 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. Prove it, Dean.
A few months ago, I read in an online business news article the opinion of a nationally known economist, whose primary work involves investigating large-scale systematic fraud (forgot his name), regarding the credit freeze-up, and this man said he thought that collusion among the banks was a much more likely explanation of what happened.
He was cautious in his wording, so as not to appear too indicting of the banks, but he did say he believed the freeze couldn't have happened without systematic collusion.
Otherwise, and in nearly all other instances, I wholeheartedly endorse Dean's analyses and conclusions.
March 16, 2009 11:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree
Posted by NewsNag in reply to a comment from Ellen
Take me now, sweet Jesus, it's the end times! Signs and portents! Impossible things present themselves to our eyes as if real!
March 17, 2009 12:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
I was going to post a comment along those lines. I basically agree. What Lehman did was to start a small chain reaction which was waiting to happen. Lehman going under did not cause the recession, we now know that started 9 months earlier. What Lehman did was to suck a lot of irrationality out of many stocks. That is, it hastened a drop which was inevitable. Would the drop have been less if Lehman had been saved. Probably yes, but at what cost both in final dollars and in moral hazard, given that one reason Lehman (Fuld) didn't listen to Paulson over the summer after Bear Stearns.
The fact is that Lehman assets went for like 9 cents on the dollar when auctioned off in the fall.
Your 1 week window is too narrow, btw.
I'm not clear on what Baker is after, with all his words. I think he's trying to advocate managed reorganization of other firms. But he's being coy about details.
Worthless.
March 17, 2009 6:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Baker's argument is a classic -- one of those "Given that everything you say is true, your conclusion doesn't follow."
In other words assuming you're right that Lehman almost brought down the world financial system, that was then, this is now. Facts and circumstances have changed.
It's a cagey way around the fearmongering "Oh! but look what happened when Lehman was allowed to fail" cries of the bailouters. Very crafty.
My concern, though, is that the argument gives up too much ground. By agreeing that disaster stared us in the face we add weight to the bailouters' argument.
I think we should attack the premise (if we think it wrong) rather than agree with it and then, try to change the subject -- as Baker does.
March 17, 2009 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
I still don't get what Baker is after (on about, aiming at, ...). Until I know his objective I can't but nitpick his methods.
I think the real world isn't as simple as "either or" when it comes to accepting or challenging premises. There's usually a bit of both going on except for the dogmatic idealists (or ideologues). Thus I'm inclined to analyze before I synthesize a response. I do admit that sometimes "better to ask forgiveness than permission" can apply.
March 17, 2009 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Said it before,I'll say it again. This is the greatest heist in history.
March 16, 2009 6:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope you're wrong, but I fear you are right.
March 17, 2009 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Lehman bros collapse finally woke up the investor class to the fact that there was too much debt -- ie not enough earnings in society to pay interest. Too many decided at the same time to get their money out of debt creating the panic.
It seems the underlying fact of too much debt remains. Investors can either take their losses or the tax-payer can make them whole. There is little the government can do to change the underlying reality. It is either bankruptcy or bail-outs. To say that letting Lehman fall was a mistake, seems to be saying that bail-outs are the answer.
I vote for bankruptcy. That is an ugly process and frequently involves panic as money begins to move quickly. Maybe the government could bring a little order to the route, but should really not do any more.
It is frustrating to see that we are going to continue with the bailouts. This route is not just unfair, but why does anyone believe that it will work? Isn't this the political process that leads to hyper-inflation? What was worse for Germany -- the 1920s hyperinflation or the GD?
March 16, 2009 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
If investors take their money out of failing firms, where does it go? Some other firm. Perhaps a firm that is doing better then the rest and more deserving of the money. The problem is that these businesses feel they are entitled to the money and have done nothing to deserve it. We need a merit based market, not a good old boys club. It has failed.
March 16, 2009 7:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Take a look at credit unions. Their failure rate is much lower than that of the commercial banks, not to mention the former investment banks.
March 16, 2009 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Credit unions have always had a special place because they have made the clients the shareholders. It's much more transparent and tends to be above board because of that.
March 17, 2009 1:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
The first bear market rally (post-Bear Stearns to May 19) was one of those hope-springs-eternal "This isn't a bear market; we were just going through a correction" type rallies.
But after May the market slid slowly and steadily down -- 12% in the next four months. And then, after Fannie and Freddie and Lehman and AIG, investors finally figured out that it was "Oh, my God!" a bear market and Katy bar the door.
Reality can be a bummer.
March 16, 2009 10:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
"There are few economists who would defend the decision to allow Lehman Brothers to go bankrupt last September. "
There are few economists who know how to think. Ninety-nine percent of the time, economics is neither a science nor an art -- it is BS.
March 16, 2009 7:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
To truly understand why we have reached this financial tipping point in time, take a moment to read this brief article that was recently published.
Here’s a snippet….http://www.opednews.com/articles/GRAND-ILLUSION–THE-FEDER-by-Jim-Quinn-090310-732.html
Don’t Know Much About History
The First Bank of the United States was created in 1791. Alexander Hamilton, the first Secretary of the Treasury, proposed this bank and convinced a hesitant President Washington to agree. John Adams and Thomas Jefferson were against the concept. It favored the moneyed classes of the North versus the agrarian South. The bank was given a 20 year charter and President James Madison let it expire in 1811. He then renewed the charter in 1816. The wise men who took unprecedented risks in declaring independence from England’s tyranny, feared the tyranny of bankers equally: President Jackson’s honesty and anger at the bankers should resonate today, as bankers have again brought our country to its knees.
Gentlemen, I have had men watching you for a long time and I am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter, I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves. I intend to rout you out, and by the grace of the Eternal God, will rout you out.
A President with Jackson’s strength of character would put the blame where it belongs today. He would rout out these criminal bankers, rather than give them more taxpayer money to squander. A President with a moral backbone would put an end to the disastrous 96 year experiment of the Federal Reserve. Instead our last two spineless Presidents have put Goldman Sachs bankers in charge of our national Treasury. An examination of inflation throughout the history of the United States proves that from the beginning of our nation through wars and the Industrial Revolution, the country experienced virtually no inflation as our currency was backed by gold. The creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913 and the closing of the gold window in 1971 unleashed a tsunami of inflation that continues today.
March 16, 2009 8:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very interesting.
I've completely accepted that the lesson learned from Lehman was not to do that again. Whereas Dean says the lesson learned was that it was a failure last September. Full stop.
Thank you, thank you, thank you.
March 16, 2009 9:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
"In the wake of Lehman's bankruptcy, Reserve Primary did not know how much, if any, of this investment it could recover."
Why blame Lehman for what Reserve Primary did. According to reports, Reserve Primary was holding $785 million in Lehman paper in a fund valued at $64.8 billion, a whopping 1.21%. That is probably less than Reserve earns in total management fees. They did not have to break the buck because of Lehman. They chose to. The question is why.
March 16, 2009 9:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent question.
The simplest answer is that Reserve purposefully underpriced -- by a large amount -- its holdings of not only Lehman debt but other debt, as well.
Immediately before its break-the-buck announcement Reserve Prime had been the subject of a run (it was the most speculative large money market fund around), and once they leave they don't come back. How to keep them from cashing out? You can close the gate but only for seven days. How else?
Easy! Show your investors they'll get $0.97 now but closer to $1.00 if they wait around -- and probably not that long.
Result: run ends because most investors will hang around for the extra two cents.
March 16, 2009 10:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Reserve Prime had priced its holdings honestly -- say $0.99/share -- no one would stick around.
There'd be no upside to make sticking around worthwhile.
March 16, 2009 10:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
My guess is that Reserve had problems in its brand new Treasury and Repo Fund (Lehman paper may or may not have been involved) but used the leverage of its Primary Fund to get bailed out.
The financials on Reserve's site are interesting for what they don't say. I haven't looked at the SEC reports yet.
March 16, 2009 11:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, I don't mean leverage in the financial sense but in the better hostages sense.
March 16, 2009 11:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
As far as I can remember the financial crisis started when the Lehman Brothers declared their bankruptcy and everything catastrophic follows. A lot of small and big time businesses collapsed too. To combat the recession most business does their every means to save company. Lucky for those who were able to cope up. With this economic stability I think it will help if some will repair their credit. You have to be diligent when trying to repair your credit. The effort to repair your credit is a noble one, but while doing so you must be careful not to add any more debt. Interest rates can be killer, especially on any credit cards, so getting debt help through debt consolidation or other means is a good idea. If you come up short at any time, you'd be better off using an online cash advance instead of the plastic, which may have gotten you into trouble in the first place. If it means mortgage loan modification or refinancing, it's all good if it helps you to repair your credit.
May 3, 2009 10:58 PM | Reply | Permalink