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Anxiety And Engagement

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My new book is a series of case studies in US and NATO relations with a Muslim country or movement, and I feel vindicated that I chose well. I talk about Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, all of which are in the headlines as the book appears in bookstores. These areas in particular pose dilemmas for the Obama administration, and I have a lot to say about how we got where we are and how we might get out of the serial morasses bequeathed us by eight years of Bush-Cheney.

I believe that the United States and its NATO allies are destined to have more and more to do with the Muslim world over the coming decades. Some estimates of world population growth suggest that it will level off about 2050 at 9 billion or so. Nearly a third of humankind at that point may well be Muslim (the proportion is more like one-sixth to one-fifth today). Muslims will be the labor pool of the 21st century. And while we all wish that we could wean ourselves from fossil fuels in only ten years, likely a majority of our energy will still be being generated by them in 2050. The deepest known reserves of petroleum and natural gas are in Muslim-majority regions such as the Persian Gulf and Central Asia. As the shallower reserves elsewhere run dry, or as the populations of those countries with limited reserves begin using these resources themselves, industrialized nations will become even more intimately intertwined with the Muslim producers. Ironically, these hydrocarbon producers may also be the ones who have the capital to partner in trying to move to solar energy, the only real solution to the crisis (and one that should be attractive to the Muslim world, which has a disproportionate amount of sunlight and deserts).

Despite this growing relationship of production and consumption, of supply and dependency, relations between the two worlds are rapidly worsening. That combination of increased need for one another and increased distrust for one another could be explosive. The Muslim world has America anxiety, because of the recent history of coups, interventions and outright invasions, and because of Washington's one-sidedness on the Israel-Palestine issue. The US and to a lesser extent Europe have Islam Anxiety, because of al-Qaeda and other terrorism, because of perceived intolerance and tendency to theocray, and because of what is seen as an irrational anti-Western sentiment. I argue in the book that Muslim terrorism is a significant but definitely fringe phenomenon, and that it resembles the far right of gun nuts and white supremicists in the US. We have to see things in proportion to make good policy.

Muslim publics are forthright in saying what they want. They want the US out of Iraq and Afghanistan and they want the Palestinians to cease being stateless and oppressed by a foreign military occupation that is expropriating them and/or depriving them of basic rights of life and property. They also would like more actual civilian development aid rather than grants of F-18s to their generals. And they want more easily to be able to travel to and learn from the United States. I think the Obama administration could hope to give them a majority of the things they say they want from us, and I think doing so would lay the groundwork for progress on the other outstanding issues. We don't, in other words, have to be at war or to recreate the cold war, this time with the Muslim world instead with international communism. Muslims like democracy and private property way too much to be good stand-ins for the commisars.

This book came together for me because of the prospect that Bush and Cheney were on their way out of office. The departure of Blair in the UK and other changes in European politics also held out the possibility that these states and their publics might be open to new policies toward the Muslim world and more specifically the Middle East. Putting forth plans seemed pretty futile as long as the Bush administration was in power, because they were incredibly stubborn and unbelievably insular.

I felt a strong responsibility to write the book because I have lived in both worlds. Altogether, I probably spent about a decade in the Muslim world. I still travel there a lot, and keep in close touch nowadays through the internet even when I'm back here. I also have a lot to do with the American Muslim and Arab communities. I can't tell you how upset I am about the bigotry and racism I see deployed against Muslims, at home and abroad, by rightwing pundits in this country. It is having an effect. I mean, a very large proportion of Americans has begun questioning the loyalty of American Muslims to the United States. In one poll, a quarter of Americans said that they would not want to live next to a Muslim.

That sentiment is ugly, especially if you know the history of race relations in the US. There were laws about where people could live based on race. The racial segregation of neighborhoods in Los Angeles, e.g., was carefully plotted out, as my colleague Scott Kurashige has shown, and had legislative and judicial backing. Japanese suffered from it, as well as African-Americans Even the 1948 and 1953 Supreme Court rulings that struck down restrictive racial covenants only made it impossible to enforce them in the courts, but did not stop whites from informally continuing the practice. When you say, in the US, that you don't want to live next to a person because of his or her ancestry, you are buying in to a very powerful history of bigotry and social control. It used to be Jews, Blacks and Asians who were targeted for such residential restrictions. At least in some Americans' minds, it is now apparently Muslims.

Inasmuch as I am a historian, I view this book as a species of contemporary history. Although my main focus is on the present, I think knowing both Middle Eastern history and the history of European and American relations with the region is essential to formulating good policy. Recognizing that most Iraqis viewed their country as the victim of British colonialism, and that much of twentieth-century Iraqi history was about gaining independence from London, would have told us that most Iraqis would not greet invading Western troops as "liberators," however happy they might have been to see Saddam Hussein overthrown. Understanding that both the Eisenhower and Reagan administrations strove mightily to build up Wahhabi Saudi Arabia as the central leader of the Muslim world allows us to see the irony of present-day American politicians' denunciations of the alleged pernicious influence of the Saudis on their coreligionists.

Now it may seem trite to insist that America Anxiety and Islam Anxiety can be overcome by better information and more intensive dialogue and negotiation, but I just want to point out that these steps are not the ones that have been being taken during the past 8 years, so we don't know how effective they could be if pursued seriously. Actually the most dramatic example of showing respect to Muslims and working to get them on the side of the US versus radicals was the Awakening Councils in Iraq, where Sunni Muslims went on the US payroll to fight what Washington calls "al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia." The American Right keeps lauding the success of this program without seeming to recognize that they oppose similar policies with regard to other, much less virulent movements. They don't even want us to talk to the nonviolent Muslim Brotherhood. Why?


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Great post, Juan. I look forward to reading ENGAGING THE MUSLIM WORLD.

PS Change that "...9 million..." to 9 billion.

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Juan Cole describes the Mslim Brotherhood as non-violent, and that's all. A careless reader might think the Brotherhood has no other program except non-violence, but that isn't exactly true.

From "Toward the Light" in Five Tracts of Hasan al-Banna, trans. by Charles Wendell (Berkeley, 1978), ISBN 0520095847 pp.126f...

al-Banna writes: "Following are the principal goals of reform grounded on the spirit of genuine Islam... Treatment of the problem of women in a way which combines the progressive and the protective, in accordance with Islamic teaching, so that this problem - one of the most important social problems - will not be abandoned to the biased pens and deviant notions of those who err in the directions of deficiency and excess... a campaign against ostentation in dress and loose behaviour; the instruction of women in what is proper, with particular strictness as regards female instructors, pupils, physicians, and students, and all those in similar categories... a review of the curricula offered to girls and the necessity of making them distinct from the boys' curricula in many stages of education... segregation of male and female students; private meetings between men and women, unless within the permitted degrees of relationship, to be counted as a crime for which both will be censured... the encouragement of marriage and procreation, by all possible means; promulgation of legislation to protect and give moral support to the family, and to solve the problems of marriage... the closure of morally undesirable ballrooms and dance-halls, and the prohibition of dancing and other such pastimes..."

Although the official doctrine of the Muslim Brotherhood remains non-violent, the Brotherhood has a long history of generating violent splinter groups like Al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya (The Islamic Group) and Al Takfir Wal Hijra (Excommunication and Migration), and of course al Qaeda itself, whose second in command, Dr. Ayman Muhammad Rabaie al-Zawahiri, joined the Muslim Brotherhood at the age of 14, and Hamas, which was founded by another former member of the Brotherhood, Sheikh Ahmad Yassin.

In general, the Muslim Brotherhood has approximately the same relationship with violent Islamic groups as exists between Sinn Fein and the Irish Republican Army. The Brotherhood maintains a non-violent public representation of itself, with the intention of of forming parliamentary parties wherever it can, and meanwhile the violence implied in its general program for a return to medieval sharia law is carried out by "former" members and splinter groups, an artifice that allows the brotherhood to maintain "plausible deniability" for violence intended to impose its reactionary program.


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Although it may appear that most of my post above is taken from the book by Charles Wendell which I cited, the quoted material ends after one long paragraph, and the rest is my own summary of information from various sources, none of which relies on partisan sources like Daniel Pipes or Bernard Lewis, or Juan Cole. (The blockquote didn't show up very clearly in the preview.)

The only part of my summary that's takes more than one step away from evidence readily available on the internet is my comparison between the Muslim brotherhood and Sinn Fein, which friends of either are likely to dispute.

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Comparing the Muslim Brotherhood to Sinn Fein has some validity but it is important to make some critical distinctions.
Unlike the nationalist orientation of the Northern Irish fight, the Brotherhood has a different political profile in different nations. Their experience in Syria and Egypt, for instance, is very different. While they have been brutally treated in both places, the attempt to wipe them off the face of the earth in Syria is very different from the horse trading that has been a part of Egyptian politics for decades.
Seeing that the organization has survived in both of these countries suggest that they are non violent to the degree that they don't renege on deals they make with the regimes running those countries.
While I would like to see Mr Cole give an answer directly to your challenge about "non-violence", I submit that the question about whether they are a group worth talking to is another matter. After all, if they are to be seen as a "Sinn Fein", isn't the fact the fact that Sinn Fein negotiated a power sharing agreement a support of Juan Cole's argument?

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So?

I daresay most Americans who would recognize the name "Muslim Brotherhood" do not have a terribly nuanced view of who they are or what they do.

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So...

This is where you get a more "nuanced view" of the Muslim Brotherhood, but not from Juan Cole.

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What a mouthful!

Arab-American historical relations, Muslims in Europe, South and Southeast Asia, neoconservatives, oil wars, American ghettoization -- Jeesh.

Hopefully, we can take these issues up a bite at a time

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Dr. Cole, Informed Comment has been an important blogging resource for me for years.
Good luck with your book. You are correct to cast many of the issues in psychological terms. So much about war and prejudice is so very irrational. Thanks for the good post.

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"Some estimates of world population growth suggest that it will level off about 2050 at 9 million or so."

I believe that's supposed to be 9 billion, unless they know about something really bad that's going to happen before then.

I look forward to reading your new book, Professor Cole.

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I don't think anything whether it be markets or population "levels off." We are clearly in overshoot wrt resources. The consequences lead to the usual four horses of the apocalypse and imminent severe population decline.

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The reason U.S. Citizens have any problem with their Muslim neighbors is because of the Liberal Press. The Liberal Press has no good words to say about Muslims.
The most recent press was about the Muslim owner of a U.S. Television station dedicated to promoting Muslims. This Muslim U.S. Television station owner got mad at his wife and cut off her head with a sword. It was an honor killing.
There is just too much news about Muslims strapping bombs and killing dozens of innocent bystanders. Why do they need to keep telling us about Muslims shouting Ala Akbar and killing innocent people that they don't even know?
Why do they in the press keep telling us about Muslims in France setting automobiles on fire and burning down large areas of major French cities?
Why did the Liberal Press tell us that Muslims crashed planes into the World Trade Center Twin Towers killing thousands of U.S citizens?
If the Liberal Press would hide those facts, everyone in the U.S. would feel much better about their Muslim neighbors.

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Well clearly if those reports were "suppressed" the world would seem to be a much more peaceful place, because clearly no Christians, Jews, Hindus, Atheists, or any other non-Muslims have killed any civilians or committed any violent acts in the time frame in question, right?

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I do think the Arab nations are pro Democracy but the United States in promoting Democracy has to work from the bottom up. What this means is that US policies should be consistent with Democracy, for example, the US can take a stand against corruption in a nation but that Democracy full blown is going to have to picked by the people of the various Arab nations. Promoting Democracy via a gun barrel is to be avoided. The military is there to fight terrorism. (Of course, once there the military best avoid setting up dictatorships.) Promoting Democracy by piece meal reform, which could be just be about competent government but which by 'happenstance' are demands of a democractic governement is the way to go. Of course, Iraq and Afghansitan are special cases and elections etc are best backed by the US.

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Welcome Juan!

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Welcome to TPM Cafe, Professor Cole!

I agree with you that the bias against Muslims in this country is ugly and deeply troubling. The first wave of it occurred several decades ago, at the time of the Iranian hostage crisis (my Iranian friends at the time actually feared for their lives), but of course, was exacerbated by 9/11, and fanned even further by those who found it politically expedient to focus on the small minority of violent Muslims ("Islamo-fascists" - what a horrible term). There apparently is a significant portion of the American public who has generalized the concept of Islamo-fascism to the entire Muslim world. How sad, but perhaps this is a inherent facet of human nature - fear of the stranger - one that has perhaps an evolutionary basis for it's existance, but one which we must constantly be aware of and challenge when we see it applied inappropriately.

We clearly need more people such as yourself, who know the Muslim world, speaking out and bringing us a clearer picture of the majority of peace-loving Muslims, so I'm especially glad to see you posting here at TPM Cafe this week.

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I also welcome you to TPM, Professor Cole.

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Me too.

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Me three!

Welcome, Prof. Cole. I've read some of your other books, but not this one yet. Looking forward to it, really.

I wish Barnett Rubin and Robert Crews had also been invited to comment. I would have liked that, along with an Arab commenter.

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Thanks Prof. Cole!

I think your suggestion is the proper one because the predicate for dialogue and information is respect. The relationship, such as it is, between the west (especially the US) and the Muslim world has been characterized by an unbridled disrespect on our part for them.

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