Obama is working on the greatest political transformation in seventy five years and the right is scared to death that he is going to succeed. Their only hope in slowing down the momentum is to convince you that we are plunging into Great Depression II.

Ummm... but the political transformation is being justified as the only way to avert going into Great Depression II. In fact, one could argue that as long as the US felt generally prosperous, things as abstract as "the culture wars" could be used as a viable platform, but once events become very tangible, real, and practical, the electorate ran immediately into the arms of the Democrats -- because the electorate doesn't trust Republicans on bread-and-butter issues.

Clearly, then, if the GOP were motivated by enlightened self-interest, they'd be doing all they could to say things aren't as bad as they seem. ({ahem} Just like you are here.)

The GOP has never been a bunch for enlightened self-interest, though.

Joe:

Again, I have to play Devil's Advocate.

1. Social Security and other COLA-based incomes went up 5.8& in January. Of COURSE you are likely to see some gains in spending. That increase was the largest in many years.

2. January also saw FAR MORE BANKRUPTCY and GOING OUT OF BUSINESS SALES than other months - and deep discounts in most retail stores. Of COURSE you are going to see revisions upward, given such dire circumstances.

But those trends CANNOT CONTINUE - since they would require more circumstances that, overall, lead to a WORSENING OF THE OVERALL ECONOMY.

In fact, in the very article you quote, many economists predict things will get substantially worse this Spring and Summer.

I think Obama is perfectly correct. We have not seen the bottom yet - and it is going to take 1-2 YEARS before we see substantial improvement in the overall economy.

It is dangerous and disingenuous to take these numbers as any indication of a trend - given the amount of 'artificial money' that has gone to fund them. That cannot go on forever.

I think consumer/investor confidence is important, too. And I hope these early indicators are signs of general recovery. But I also hope we don't forget to close the door after we restock the barn - and reinstall tight regulations over the market. Some of the slow response from the financial sector has been fear that the unfettered era is coming to an end. Let's look one more time at gas-bag Rick Santelli's "rant", specifically:

How about this, President and new administration? Why don’t you put up a website to have people vote on the Internet as a referendum to see if we really want to subsidize the losers’ mortgages; or would we like to at least buy cars and buy houses in foreclosure and give them to people that might have a chance to actually prosper down the road, and reward people that could carry the water instead of drink the water?

Buy houses in foreclosure and give them to people? On the basis of what? From which succulent trees are all these expectantly prosperous folk going to drop down to us? What happens when these happy, promising fresh homeowners are gob-smacked with a skyrocketing adjustable interest rates? Let me translate: We want the government to spend its resources reinstalling the housing bubble, so we can get back to the lend/evict/inflate gravy train that allowed soulless jackasses like the guys around me to shell-game the markets into free-fall. Recovery, in that sector, isn't as important to getting back to business as usual.

I think Whitney has some credibility unless she's been coopted.

There is a clear need to exaggerate. For instance, programs to reduce the impact of a recession are not programs to prevent GDII, yet they are spun that way in this very thread.

That there is more to come on the downside doesn't mean DOW 4000 nor does it mean the end of life as we know it in this country (tho' very many people probably will or have made significant lifestyle changes).

Let's see what those numbers look like after revision. And also let's remember that those are month-to-month numbers. The depression number is peak-to-trough, so the relevant comparison here is to spending in 2007 or early 2008, not to the disaster that was november and december.

while I generally view David Brooks as being smart, for a republican, and I generally disagree with him on everything, in this case while not sharing what may be his anti-Obama trope, I would say the argument is flawed - on your part because in 1929 a larger percentage of Americans were living in poverty and personal credit was the exclusive domain of the aristocracy which meant there were more Joads barely getting by.

Therefore, with a greater number of American living on "monopoly money" than during the lead-up to 1929, the net effect of this latest example of the Great American Ponzi Scheme, may very well prove to be far worse than 1929.

Time will tell.

Jon, your point re: the 'pub's gamesmanship is well-taken. But cherry-picking that one tiny glimmer of light in the economy (yes, I definitely noticed it too), with all the other indicators diving, might not result in an accurate prediction of the future, immediate or long-term.

Are you saying that the nose is coming up, now? We'd all sure like to believe that.

But, would you move all your cash into equities at this point? That would be a real commitment to what you're suggesting...