President Obama's Implied Future For Derivatives
If you've worked on economic policy formulation - or in any large bureaucracy - you know how to get your boss to make the decision you want. The key is to frame the options in such a way that he or she feels that your preferred course of action is the only plausible direction. Alternatives need to be undermined or discredited.
Smart bosses know this, of course, and they seek out sources of information or analysis that are not managed by their subordinates. The problem is that, traditionally, most such sources are not sufficiently well informed, at a detailed level, to be really helpful in the decision-making process. The format of most mainstream media - 800 words for the general reader, 4 minute stories, etc - does not allow engagement at the technical level; and, to be honest, technocrats are very good at manipulating the information flow to even the best journalist (who is usually a generalist). And while there are always outside technical domain experts, research papers appear with a lag and op eds usually have a broad brush (again, a format constraint).
Seen in this context, President Obama - on the face of it - has the role of blogs exactly backwards. But perhaps he is instead telling us something more profound.
In Sunday's NYT, the President is quoted as saying (at the end of the story),
Part of the reason we don't spend a lot of time looking at blogs is because if you haven't looked at it very carefully, then you may be under the impression that somehow there's a clean answer one way or another - well, you just nationalize all the banks, or you just leave them alone and they'll be fine.
Blogs relax previous format restrictions. Length can vary, as can technical content. Comments allow immediate feedback, clarification; debate is healthy for ideas. Experts can now express a view or an endorsement immediately to a broader audience - and get pushback, as appropriate.
And, on the President's point, experts can now talk directly to other experts at a very detailed operational level, and the results of that conversation are now public - and again attract public content (let's be honest: sometimes experts are way off-base and they need to be told). This is very threatening to official technocrats, both because their monopoly on expertise crumbles and because a broader set of people become skilled at criticizing their ideas. These technocrats would much rather have their boss read newspapers and weekly magazines.
There is a good reason that the IMF is not free to speak candidly about the United States; it is full of experts who know what they are talking about.
But the President knows all this, which suggests another interpretation for his remarks. Perhaps the financial situation - e.g., in and around derivatives - really is too complex for anyone to understand, unless they have the inside knowledge of regulators. This would mean, of course, that going forward no one can question Treasury about anything important.
But that, in turn, makes congressional oversight impossible - even if we move to closed door hearings. And it raises the question: if our financial system has become so economically complex that President Obama is right, then is it also too complex to be politically sustainable?
Big financial players now know they have a colossal potential put or bailout option. They can also construct interconnected structures that no one can understand, except possibly the Treasury. So every 10-20 years (or more often?) we will experience a crisis of current proportions?
There is a growing consensus that large banks should be broken up; no more "too big to fail". But the President's implied point about economic/political complexity suggests that derivatives - for all their obvious potential benefits - are too dangerous to be allowed at anything like their current scale. Who will be willing down the road to let Treasury, without outside comment or oversight, repeatedly provide massive amounts of resources to financial system insiders?
Derivatives have the potential to create a rent-seeking structure that is unparalleled in human history. No society can afford to allow that kind of financial system to operate. Either we figure out how to make it much more transparent - and amenable to outside review - or the re-regulation process currently in the hands of Senator Dodd and Congressman Frank needs to consider more radical alternatives.




















much more transparent
I suppose the creation of a dedicated exchange
where these shards of risk are traded could produce this if properly structured and given a monopoly on the right to consummate derivative transactions eligible to be enforced by legal collection mechanisms if necessary.
March 9, 2009 6:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
I nominate Simon Johnson for Deputy Treasury Secretary
March 10, 2009 1:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
No shit.
I've heard him on N(ot) P(rogressive) R(adio).
It's rather a tooth-grinder to hear about the "staffing problems" hampering the construction of a working treasury department, given that there are any number of academics who never had a chance to accrue tax problems who are exponentially more competent than the insiders who have crawled out from between the sheetrock of the Federal Reserve Bank structure.
March 10, 2009 2:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
As far as I can tell one main reason for a lot of what exists in our present system is there for the sole reason of generating profits. It's like a never ending game of chess, with chaotic rules, where the players gain and lose position but can never actually win or lose.
Wherein lies the problem is the players are in true fact leveraging a range of assets many of which ought not be exposed to high levels of risk but because of the overall structure in fact do have that exposure. People who have 401K and IRA investments are theoretically conservative investors but still have equivalent high risk exposure and have most certainly suffered huge losses in all of this. When 401K and IRA were invented that level of risk wasn't presented as part of the deal. Quite the opposite actually.
The fact is the game has changed and has introduced this risk where it once was minimal. Where laws were changed it was with an eye on profits with only passing consideration to risk. Between the tech meltdown of 2000 and now this an entire generation of workers have their retirements seriously compromised. The consensus among boomers is they have been scammed big time. There is a broad recognition that this cannot be fixed at the ballot box. Which leaves a broken and floundering system looking for leadership but which is unwilling to swallow the medicine that is the only practical remedy.
March 9, 2009 7:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
. . . every 10-20 years (or more often?) . . . .
Enough already with this oh-so-serious long-term analysis!
What are we going to do about Obama's demand that we trust him and allow him to keep pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into the "derivatives market" -- all in secret?
March 9, 2009 10:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Considering that there is a 4-volume, 4700 page description of derivatives, they are probably complicated. See Satyajit Das "The Swaps & Financial Derivatives Library: Products, Pricing, Applications and Risk Management, 3rd Edition Revised (Boxed Set)".
I once worked on embedded software in an organization managed by electrical engineers who had not done any software development. Later I worked on server and web software in an organization where the managers were all former mainframe software developers.
In any fast-moving industry, the managers tend to be old and clueless. Few managers have the continued intellectual capacity or have the discipline to devote the required effort to keep up.
The Senate would be a good example of very old and very clueless managers.
March 9, 2009 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Did Mr. Das mention somewhere in those 4700 pages that if you buy your derivatives from some bucket shop in London you shouldn't expect to get paid when you turn them back in?
March 9, 2009 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
The four volume set would appear to be orthodoxy.
However, Mr. Das appears to have fallen away from the true faith in his blog Fear and Loathing in Financial Products, and in his book "Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives".
From the blog:
There is widespread recognition that the benign conditions of recent years encouraged a sharp increase in the leverage within the financial system. The build-up of leverage this time around entails a number of surprises. New financial techniques have supplanted lending as the primary source of liquidity and leverage creation reflecting Will Rogers’ droll observation: “You can't say that civilization don't advance; for in every war they kill you a new way.”
March 9, 2009 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Right.
The math Mr. Das deploys is far above my pay grade. But ---
Today's question is whether Goldman Sachs, which bet on AIG's continuing solvency, should be "made good" by the taxpayers when its bets turned sour.
March 9, 2009 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for that link Merrill
March 9, 2009 10:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
hmmm, re: managers, young/old, clueless/not,
it sez here on the front page of my New York Times today:
Treasury Officials Scrambling
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is scrambling to address problems in the economy with just a sketleton crew of senior advisers. Page B1.
Think that could have something to do with it? Any chance we can get a basic level gummint (young/old, clueless/not, tax forms in order/not) to attempt to handle those hundreds of billions going out the door in an orderly fashion somewhere along the line? When is a crisis a crisis enough to treat it as a real crisis? Or is the plan to continue with the "take every day by the seat of our pants" method?
March 9, 2009 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Really, if this is a "all hands on deck" situation, that which the article describes is the adequate manpower for a dinghy:
Without even a nominee? But there is time for p.r. trips around the country on the stimulus?
The world's economy
is on hold for things like p.r. operations with two dozen police recruits in Ohio?
March 9, 2009 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
After initially declining to comment, Treasury spokesman Isaac Baker e-mailed a statement saying 50 political appointees at the department already are hard at work.
"Any rumors of vetting problems or delays in the process are simply not true," Baker’s statement read. AP March 6, 2009
The Secretary would appreciate it if you, artappraiser, would cease and desist spreading these unfounded "rumors."
March 10, 2009 1:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
"As far as I can tell one main reason for a lot of what exists in our present system is there for the sole reason of generating profits."
Not just profits (with which there is nothing wrong in principle) but trading profits (with which there may indeed be something wrong in principle). If you read some of the articles on securitization of subprime mortgages, you hear that the great proliferation wasn't about people suddenly wanting to pay more than they could afford for housing, it was about the financial sector realizing they could make a bundle packaging, underwriting, selling and trading these securities. And they couldn't do that unless there was a huge continuing supply of underlying mortgages.
Same thing for the CDS market and many other derivatives: there's a lot of money to be made packaging, underwriting and trading, so there's a demand from the financial sector for a continuing supply of new securities and new financial instruments, regardless of whether the meatspace people and businesses on which the tower of derivatives is piled need or want them. (Oh, yeah, and if the new instruments find loopholes in the regulations so that sellers can benefit more than usual from information asymmetry and the resulting mispricing, that's all to the good too.)
Perhaps we all should have known as soon as someone coined the standard acronym for the combination of Finance, Investment and Real Estate. Excellent servant, terrible master.
March 9, 2009 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Professor Johnson,
First of all thank you for your contributions here. Your analysis without blinders or rose-colored glasses is appreciated by me and I'm sure many others here as well.
A few questions for you...
If the economic situation is so complicated that nobody can understand it shouldn't our top priority be to prevent allowing this to happen again in the future?
Is it not becoming increasingly clear that dumping the hundreds of billions into the financial system without at least getting rid of those who screwed it up (not to mention prosecuting them) one of the worst possible courses of action? If any of these giant companies were to be taken over by another private firm in order to salvage it wouldn't the first order of business be the dismissal of the people who ran the company into the ground?
Do you believe the President is erring by allowing his top economic advisers to be among the major players in the whole debacle to begin with? In other words, are Gaithner, Summers, Bernanke, et al in any position to actually fix this problem when they didn't even see it coming and actually contributed to creating it? At the very least it appears to me they are far too close to the people and institutions involved to approach the situation objectively or from the point of view of protecting the taxpayer's money. Their view seems to be exactly the same view as that held by the perpetrators here which is whatever is good for them is good for the taxpayer and I don't see how that is true.
Are the President and his advisers too ideologically wedded to the way things were? Do you think they need to rethink their faith in business leaders and their ability to do what is right versus what is most profitable for them right now?
Thanks again.
March 9, 2009 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oleeb, you ask some very important questions there. I, too, want some answers to those questions. And, how is the derivative market different from the varied gambling games in Las Vegas, where you can bet on the winner, the leader after one quarter of the game, the point spread, the leading scorer, the number of fouls called by one referee, the number of cowbells ringing after 10 minutes, the drops of sweat shed by the cheerleaders, etc. In both cases it is all about luring people to pay the the house for the "privilege" of betting/investing.
March 9, 2009 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think there's any difference at all Hoppy except that in Vegas they aren't lying about what they're up to. They tell ya up front they are there to take your money and that you're risking every penny you put on the line that isnt' an even money bet. In other words, there's no fraud involved. In Vegas they steal your money up front, you know it's unlikely you'll win, but if you do you'll get a nice payoff.
March 9, 2009 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
My questions, too, Oleeb. I'm particulary concerned about Geithner who at the very least should not have been put in a public role in the administration. He may, or may not, know what he's doing, but he does not inspire confidence that he really does have a plan.
March 9, 2009 7:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
The latest numbers available indicate the derivatives market is on the order of $1.4 Quadrillion which dwarfs by what, 20X the total amount of the globe's traded equities and bond markets. But, nobody really knows...
And let's be clear, the overwhelming vast majority of these instruments are CASINO BETS against an asset or revenue stream where the issuer and the counterparty are not directly involved in the asset itself--hence the term 'derivative.'
Simple swaps are not necessarily bad in that they reduce the risk to the actual buyer/seller of the gamut of equities/bonds that exist. But, all the rest is a bunch of drunks with computers leveraging their ass off and using technology 'innovation' to evade the rules--to the extent the rules exist and are enforced.
And thanks to Allan Greenspan there is no regulation of this marketplace in partucular the shadow finance houses that have sprung up as a result.
Obama should declare any derivative not owned by an 'involved party' illegal. But, to do that he needs buy-in from the rest of the major financing and banking sectors otherwise capital will simply abandon the US Market. This partly explains why we're propping up AIG and their major counterparties in Europe.
I hope Obama is negotiating a global solution behind the scenes but even with his skills he might not be able to continue dancing on the head of this pin. The numbers are too staggering, the problems too intractable and the forces involved too powerful.
While there are many similarities to '29 the depression may have just been a prelude to the 'big one.' Egads, think i may have to start drinking again...
March 9, 2009 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
. . . capital will simply abandon the US Market.
Don't confuse the transaction "maker" with the "transaction," itself.
The transaction may take place in London (Dubai?), but there's not a snowball's chance in hell that "capital" will "abandon the US Market." What market do you think it will be invested in if not the United States? Iceland?
March 9, 2009 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
US Markets represent what, 30-35% of the global total. Investors (and traders) could simply sit in cash--Euros, Pounds, Francs, Renminbi, Yen or make their bets in other global exchanges, energy markets and the like.
'Abandon' is hyperbole but a significant outflow and/or reluctance to buy US Federal Debt would be pretty damaging...
Iceland may not be such a bad place to invest just now... ;-)
March 9, 2009 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
In times like these money looks for the safest place to hang out. Despite our flaws we are still the strongest economic power with relatively favorable demographics. And if things get really bad- well we are the worlds' military with an army sitting atop most of the oil. It may be crude, but it makes us pretty credit worthy.
March 9, 2009 10:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Personally I am hoping some presently unemployed traders will create "Arbitrage" a board game to make all this easier to understand. Tokens could be fashioned after the logos of the investment banks and other LCFI (large, complex financial institutions).
March 9, 2009 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the whole point of how the financial markets have been run is to create information disparities. People in the know can make millions and even billions of dollars given an information edge. For the country at large this system whose purpose is to confuse the many to benefit a very, very few has been a disaster. So this transparency angle hits the bullseye.
March 9, 2009 8:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
The world cannot really abandon buying our debt. First, what has already been bought is bought. Done deal. If China sells some of its US bonds, someone else has to buy them. Our government is not in the situation held by many homeowners - no one can foreclose and demand repayment. Much of the new debt being created is being bought by our own Fed. The Fed is buying this new debt with brand new dollars they created with the hit of a few computer keys
The past few decades, our new debt was bought by investors. That new debt competed on the open market for dollars. That has all changed in the past few months. The Fed is, in effect, monetizing the debt. New dollars are being created out of thin air. None of which, at least for the short term, will cause inflation because the money supply was drastically reduced through the various economic slides we have recently experienced.
March 9, 2009 9:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can the Fed monetize the debt when the real short-term rate is nearly zero?
In other words when currency and debt are equivalencies, is any real, practical substitution going on at all? It sounds like semantics (the word "debt" v. the word "currency" being a distinction without a difference) to me.
March 9, 2009 10:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
see below (this is such a fucked-up interface, I cannot believe it...)
March 9, 2009 11:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
debt" v. the word "currency
Other than a few souvenir coins from the days of silver dimes, my stash appears to consist exclusively of iou's (theyoweme's) from something called the Federal Reserve.
Are you saying I'm holding "mere" paper????
March 9, 2009 11:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, yes and no.
A Federal Reserve Note you hold in your wallet is different from a T-bill you might purchase at Treasury Direct or at auction -- the latter paying interest.
But when those T-bills don't pay interest what's the difference between them and Federal Reserve Notes? Those T-bills are already equivalent to currency; they have already been "monetized" by the market (via the weekly auction) and thus, can't be monetized any further.
Or not?
March 9, 2009 11:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or not
Not.
Because the Treasuries are subject to the miracle of "reserve banking", and thus, like virtual loaves and fishes, they permit each bank manager to lend upon the same tranche again and again.
March 10, 2009 12:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
via the weekly auction
witticisms aside, on the substance, of course, it is at the auction that the action takes place, via the cover.
The Fed can print a bundle of notes, and forklift them over the the treasury on auction day, driving up the price of the securities. The only question for the Chairman is how much overtime to budget for the pressmen.
March 10, 2009 12:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Derivatives have the potential to create a rent-seeking structure that is unparalleled in human history.
Kramer was yammering last week that bank nationalization would mean "the death of capitalism." What Simon Johnson is pointing out is that the current policy is death on the installment plan.
March 10, 2009 12:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
It seems to me that capitalism has impaled itself through derivatives. By spreading it to all quarters we have effectively collectivized any particular individual risk. We're all comrades now.
March 10, 2009 1:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's worse than "death" -- at least for those who put "honor" first.
March 10, 2009 1:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
This article appears in the February 20, 2009 issue of Executive Intelligence Review.
THE CONCLUDING DOCUMENT OF A SERIES:
Now Comes Economic Time
by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr.
February 8, 2009
This is the third, and concluding document of an EIR series written in this author's supplementary response to a question submitted, with an eye to the subject of a new U.S. economic policy, during the course of an international webcast of January 22, 2009, on the current economic crisis. The titles of the preceding two documents of the series are "Nations as Dynamical" and "The Meaning of Physical Time." PDF version of this article.
http://www.larouchepub.com/lar/2009/3607economic_time.html
March 11, 2009 1:57 AM | Reply | Permalink