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Worst Downturn since the Great Depression

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reed worst downturn since great depression.png

Borrowing this chart from Brad De Long, our most excellent econoblogger and polymath, to make a few points:

The mainstream media don't (doesn't?) talk about work in a way that fits the times. In the 50s, when I was a kid, and well past 1969, after which I needed income to buy food, roof over head, and so forth, in my country less than 58% of adults worked even in good times. The signified premise behind this statistic was what we saw, back in the day, in TV sitcoms: one adult, usually male, supported a family. Over time that adult, with hard work and a little luck, earned increasing income, bought a larger house, saw its value go up at least according to inflation, enjoyed the tax deduction of the mortgage interest and so earned a retirement "nest egg," and worked for the same employer for eight years or even more. The stay at home spouse raised the children. This was the occasionally maligned (especially in novels) The American Dream.

The downturn of 1974-6 marked the end of this particular Dream (just as I graduated law school and had a devil of a time finding work, as did my classmate Clarence Thomas, by the way). The single income earner model was too risky for most families. Women had to join the work force to make ends meet, and the rights revolution was just beginning to open doors for them at the same time. Perhaps their need to work made them bang a little harder on those doors, and possibly the men who needed help in earning the income were a little more willing to see the doors open. But in any event, after that downturn women entered the workforce to an increasing degree - because, among other reasons, families needed the money.

Divorce, families breaking into smaller units, people choosing to live alone, the old growing much older and living apart from the rest of their family members -- these are the other emerging characteristics of our America that contribute to a greater collective need for work. To put the point ridiculously, in a one-person family unit everyone needs to work to make ends meet. So in the good times, when work has been abundant, of the late 80s and the late 90s, the percentage of the population that has gone to work has increased. The high water mark of 2000 registered the remarkable fact that two-thirds of adults were working. The good news was that work was found everywhere; the bad news was that given the unrelenting trend of declining or only slightly rising income for 80% of so of Americans most everyone needed the money.

But since the end of the Clinton era's work-boom and the commencement of the era of indifference to what truly matters (my view of the Bush years), not so many Americans have been able to find work. I doubt very much that they who haven't worked have not needed the money. The current downturn will take the percentage of those working to below 60% for the first time in nearly a quarter-century.

Given the way Americans live now, what should be on television, if we had any true reality TV? What should be in the newspapers, if they weren't written for shareholders instead of income-earners and, sadly, former income-earners? What should be the way politicians describe the plight of our country? Our discourse is lacking. We know what is happening to ourselves, our friends, and our neighbors, but we don't see the truths of these hard times in the media or in the language of many of our leaders. The President, more than anyone, appears aware that in our country two-thirds need to work and yet we are heading rapidly toward the possibility that closer to half are able to find work. His budget recognizes that as the difference between those who need to work and those who can find work yawns greater and greater, it is an imperative to assure decent health care for everyone. It is imperative to keep everyone connected to the communications networks that define so much of our participation in society. It is imperative to create new jobs. These are imperatives because if we are to be a country of decency we must care about each other - but also because we are all better off economically if all those who need work and want work have work.

The stock market will go up, and it will go down. Economists will have to renew their efforts to figure out why, since previous explanations are insolvent. But it's when the opportunities for work rise or fall that Americans see the Dream live or die.

In the longer run, meaning sometime in the very near future, but not today, we have to find ways to create high and rising incomes for most people, and not just the tiny few at the very top of the skills and income and wealth ladders. We need to make investments today in the structural changes that will produce high and rising incomes. We can for example open a huge sector of the economy to long-term steady growth: I refer to the need to create a Green Bank that invests and attracts investment into alternative energy for many years after the stimulus legislation has expired. That Bank should be created in the pending energy legislation being written in Congress. But right now we need to increase greatly the number of jobs available in this country - far beyond the numbers that are possible with the stimulus, as wise and sound as that legislation in fact was.

We need a Congress that is demanding a conference on work. We need many new ideas for new work, work for youths and seniors and women and disabled and on and on. We need agencies that have stimulus money to figure out not just how to spend it quickly, but how to generate more jobs rather than fewer with the forms and methods of spending. We need loans that produce work and not just loans that preserve a handful of broken banks. We need projects, in energy and transportation, that attract private sector money so as to expand the amount of work.

We have a great new secretary of Labor and a fine new Administration that will be even better if it can get its nominees confirmed - and Congress should stay in session every day until that happens. With all this talent, there's no doubt that a relentless focus on work creation will succeed. That requires a microeconomic look at the economy. It requires a focus on markets and market structures. It requires a willingness to accept public-private partnerships, and quasi-governmental entities, and a variety of other flexible techniques to create work opportunities. But the answer to the question of whether we can create opportunities for all who need and want work is: yes, we can.


25 Comments

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Nice head-and-shoulders on that chart!

Where do we put the neckline? 1979?

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"Will Work for Equity" scratched onto a piece of executive stationary, standing there, near any freeway onramp...

If the economy doesn't see any kind of job growth at least sprouting, by this summer, dont be alarmed nor suprised if we don't see the various stages of emotional distraught over job losses (and outsourcing) playing out first as visible angry, then protest, then rioting.

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Americans don't get angry.

Americans go shopping -- at Family Dollar Stores.

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This is just starting --- ain't no big deal yet.

Wait until the full CDS looting scheme plays out.

Theft by "negative externality cost displacement" is an entirely new kind of robbery, that good old Willie Sutton and Charlie Ponzi would never understand, because of its legal hiding IN PLAIN SIGHT. The perfect crime, as Dylan Ratigan of MSNBC knows.

Here's the Titanic finish, short version:

Roughly doing the numbers, AIG has caused negative externality costs that have already cost us (the U.S.) $163B (and more will be needed)

If we estimate that AIG's additional government coverage of their negative externality costs may go to $270B (for easy math), then that would equal 10% of AIG's $2.7T of CDS contracts (and many times what AIG ever made in phony privatized profits).

Scaling up (at the AIG 10% rate) to the whole CDS 'debt bomb' mess (or what Buffett aptly calls CDS financial WMD explosion), this would mean that the entire CDS disaster based on an estimated total of $55Trillion CDS contracts would imply a $5.5T negative externality cost imposition on world governments --- or on the world 'public sector' in order to 'bailout' this privatized looting via production of these negative externality cost creating products (CDSs).

Naturally, if the US ponies up about $270B to bailout AIG's 4.9% (call it 5%) of the world CDS contract base, this also suggests a similar scale-up to 20 times this figure (or $5.4T) to bailout all the CDS contracts known to exist in the world (where ever they are hidden).

Two points:

1. As far as making a little short term, privatized faux profit by creating a product with massively higher negative externality costs --- these financial bandits make the cigarette industry look like pikers, for only killing a few tens of millions of people and causing the health care system to go into systemic collapse.

2. It might be a good thing for public, democratic governments to require analysis and regulation of such so-called 'innovative' products that can be reasonably judged to create massive 'negative externality costs' BEFORE they are allowed to go into so-called production!

The later point suggests that America's founding fathers (having seen the destructive force of the royally chartered East India Corporation) may have had a pretty good idea in starting our country with the requirement that any joint financed corporation be carefully chartered to insure that only a limited and well understood "public good" be pursued, or else the charter for that corporation would be killed off ---- before we would be killed off. Great idea, but it may be a bit late today.


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Good news: the CDS net is now estimated at a mere ~ $30T (vs ~ 60T, or the 55T you used). :-)

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Some of the increase in the percent employed is measurement error. In the 50s and 60s many women still made/mended clothes, baked/cooked the family food, tended gardens/orchards and preserved food, raised small livestock, etc. A rural housewife baking and cooking to feed a crew of a dozen farmhands during harvest was not "employed", while her granddaughter waiting tables at a restaurant would be counted.

A second effect is that economic activity that was formerly vertically integrated has become horizontally integrated. An example would be telecommunications, where in the 50s and 60s the same company did R&D, equipment manufacturing and service provisioning nationally. Now there are hundreds if not thousands of companies engaged in the industry, which implies sales and administration expenses, purchasing and supply agreement negotiations, quality control staffs, standards setting, individual R&D organizations, etc, for each company in a very complex commercial setting. This creates many more white and "pink" collar jobs in the industry, even as new technology and automated equipment have reduced the number of blue collar jobs.

This is true in other industries as well. Consider the auto industries and their supply chains. As the downturn continues, and suppliers fail, the stronger players may bring back more vertical integration and consoldate industries with a substantial gain in efficiency.

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Merrill:

You have an interesting point with the measurement error there. Unfortunately, what that means (since we're no longer operating with all that uncounted labor) is that the employment-to-population ratio is not only worse than the past 25 years, but worse than previous eras as well.

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Another factor is the hours per week worked. For total non-farm private payrolls this was about 38.5 hours/week in the '60s, and it has dropped slowly to about 33.8 during the '00s.

The preliminary data for Jan '09 are 32.9 hours per week.

For manufacturing, the work week tends to expand during good times and contract during recessions.

Note that the decrease in work week is about 4.7/38.5 = 12%, which is a bigger percentage than the increase in workforce participation over the period depicted in the graph.

So we have more people in the work force, working fewer hours.

Would you like fries with that?

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That's the way I remember it too. It seems to me that the economy is adjusting to a future of low carbon imprint and no growth as we attempt to come down into alignment with sustainable living. Our bridges and highways are deteriorating at a rate just about right to end up being useless when the last private car wears out and the fuel is gone. Now is the time to stop issuing driver's licenses to teenagers, and to start cutting back on new driver's licenses for over-the-road truck drivers. Let the current generations fade away. Switch to bicycles and railroads, like back in the 40's and 50's.

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Thanks Reed. You always crystallize things for me in a way that no other smart econo-types can.

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Here is a sobering piece from todays WAPO that gives a brief description of what is happening in Asia.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29524363

This doesn't bode well for a recovery any time soon. Where the big fight willl most come into play is rejiggering how wealth is distributed in order to bring some sense to the inequality that is a big part of why we are in such trouble. I don't know how that will play out because labor is so beaten down and hasn't done a whole lot to better its image. It is evident that cuts for even organized unions have been significant over time. Government needs to step in on this one and really put the screws to industry where they simply decide to close factories left and right and go someplace where they can find people that will work for 50 cents an hour. Developed countries need factories the same as anywhere else but wages and benefits have to reflect the cost of living in each economic unit. That is a tough or perhaps impossible thing to rationalize across so many different geographic regions and cost structures. So many problems. And where there is an investor class that clamors for a piece right off the top the situation is made worse still because their contribution is non-productive. There are clear limits to how many persons can do that. Or they have to settle for less (good luck).

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But the answer to the question of whether we can create opportunities for all who need and want work is: yes, we can.
No problem, every city has want-ads. Besides, I thought the Fuhrer was going to solve everything with the stimulus bill.
With all this talent, there's no doubt that a relentless focus on work creation will succeed.
Yes, I understand that Governments are hiring hand over fist.
We need projects, in energy and transportation, that attract private sector money so as to expand the amount of work.
Well not according to "thepeoplechoose" here.
So many problems. And where there is an investor class that clamors for a piece right off the top the situation is made worse still because their contribution is non-productive.
Perhaps someone could educate this poor fellow about how the business world works. But lastly we have this fantasy from Mr Hundt....
In the longer run, meaning sometime in the very near future, but not today, we have to find ways to create high and rising incomes for most people, and not just the tiny few at the very top of the skills and income and wealth ladders.
No problem. We'll just make minimum wage $100,000/yr.
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That is one way to keep yourself unemployed!

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Media "don't" if you're in UK, "doesn't" in the US.

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ihave been saying for over a year and will say it again.

this is far worse then the great depression and it goings to get worse once our debt is no longer payed for by china.

and there is no point in repeating myself.......

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Odd how normal things seem for some people, just riding around in big SUVs as if nothing is happening. Retired people have lost so much. The pain is only starting as they are made homeless, heatless and without food.

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What with the problems we face, does anyone think it's about time to start ridding ourselves of right wing zealots?

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th, in my country less than 58% of adults worked even in good times. The signified premise behind this statistic was what we saw, back in the day, in TV sitcoms: one adult, usually male, supported a family. Over time that adult, with hard work and a little luck, earned increasing income, bought a larger house, saw its value go u
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