Turning Points, Palin, The Debates -- and "V" for Viral

Thanks for all the postings so far, which are all interesting, and wise, especially about some of the limits of "new media" in the post-campaign period.
Some, however, have misread my initial postings. I never wrote that Bill Clinton hitting the campaign trail was "the" turning point in the race but only "a" turning point. I never said his offensive statements alone were the reason millions of African-Americans suddenly switched from Hillary to Obama but only that they really helped promote that process.
As for the economic crisis, not the Palin pick, dooming McCain: Polls showed that McCain had tied the score with Obama very briefly during the GOP convention but when details about Palin's background and complete lack of national or international experience quickly emerged, Obama took the lead again and never looked back. Yes, the economic crisis sealed McCain's doom but, in my view, he would have lost anyway because of Palin (along with the Bush legacy and the "change" motive). The one thing McCain had going for him was "experience" and he threw that away with the Palin choice.
Also, fitting into my earlier theme about the influence of new media: As someone who helped spread the first reports on Palin's background, which emerged from the Anchorage Daily News in Alaska, I can assure you that in campaigns past that would have been much delayed and truncated. No one, of course, receives that paper in the lower 48. The reports, day after day in the early going, appeared on the newspaper's Web site, which got record traffic. More importantly, people like me and dozens of others were madly linking to them and spreading the Palin facts far and wide, where they were quickly picked up by the mainstream. The message was always: The people who know her best know she is unfit for higher office.
This is in turn pushed forward the Charlie Gibson interview and even the Tina Fey impressions. Yes, those would have occurred eventually, but coming so quickly they knocked McCain for a loop before he could get going. And, along with the Couric interviews, they were viewed by millions on the Web who in the old days might have missed them. The mockery factor was multiplied. There are dozens of examples of this kind of Web-related impact in my book that have perhaps already been forgotten.
Just one example: I mentioned earlier the profound change last fall in the media spin on the four big debates. In each case, most of the mainstream anchors and pundits called the debates pretty much all even, often saying that McCain "did better than expected" or (laughably) that Palin "really held her own.." In the old days, this would have probably given the GOP some "momentum" and a bump for a week or two until, maybe, polls came out that showed little gain (or maybe the positive spin would have helped create a real GOP gain).
But last fall, that all changed. In fact, it was embarrassing to watch one network star after another call the debates a draw and then watch as the poll results and focus groups weighed in half an hour (not two weeks) later on the same channels showing that actually, viewers and uncommitted voters gave each of the debates to the Democrats OVERWHEMINGLY. Doh! And then that news was spread far and wide on the Web. "Momentum" stopped - spin reversed.
The reason Obama won? No, but a contributor, like all of the other things I have mentioned.




















I definitely agree that the reality-based media countercurrent helped to limit any chance of a rebound for McCain, and may have increased the margin of Obama's win. Those black boxes showing audience response on the debates, I think, also helped show that Obama and Biden trounced their GOP opponents, and there was no spinning it after that. "Say it ain't so, Joe" was NOT Palin "holding her own!"
March 4, 2009 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mr. Mitchell,
You wrote above:
"I never said his offensive statements alone were the reason millions of African-Americans suddenly switched from Hillary to Obama but only that they really helped promote that process."
Please forgive any misundestanding but you did write the following in your first post:
"He also managed to swing millions of African-American voters behind Obama in one two-week period."
Sure looked to me (and others I think too) as though, in your first post, you were implying very heavily that the cause of the mass movement of black voters to Obama was Bill's statements.
Also, I understand your opinion is that Obama would have won the election without the economic collapse and that may be, but that still is just your opinion and not something you or anyone can know for sure.
No one can say with any certainty that McCain would have lost "anyway." There is no way to support such a claim with any fact or set of facts. Is it likely Obama would have won anyway? Yes. Certain? Hardly. Particularly with the anemic, Kerryesque response of his campaign to the relentless Republican attacks. Obama could easily have won a number of other states where the voting was close if he had stood up for himself and counterpunched but his campaign chose to be docile I suppose because they thought they could win without defending their candidate and his character or his positions ont he most important issues. Obama could also easily have lost some of the states that he won had the collapse not come when it did. No one can say definitively that Obama would have won or lost had the economic crisis not occured. What we know, however, is that prior to the collapse, winning was still within the realm of possibility for McCain. After the collapse, it was not. Thus, without making assumptions about things we can't know it seems logical to conclude that the key event in the general election was the economic collapse.
March 4, 2009 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oleeb, you're on the case again!
I am reminded that John Kerry was "winning" until he lost. That Al Gore was "winning" until he lost.
As my memory serves, and perhaps polling expert Nate Silver at 538.com still has the data handy, but Obama/Biden's post convention bounced was stepped on the fake suspense surrounding the Palin and the GOP convention. As Pat Buchanan has shouted incessantly, Obama/Biden spent a little time BEHIND McCain/Palin due to their convention bounce.
While Palin's mainstream media meltdown was big chatter in the blogosphere, it was not nearly as damaging as suggested. There were only a few Republicans who were willing to openly criticize the Palin pick. Rush Limbaugh was busy at work even then. But the damage to the McCain/Palin was done when the economy began tanking. It was McCain's phony campaign "suspension," his ineffectiveness in DC at formulating a bailout, and his sorry debate performances that sent him out to pasture.
Palin's job was to feed the base and keep them in McCain's corner, as the base did not consider McCain "conservative enough." Her problems were not because of her incompetence; she could have been a Dan Quayle with breasts. The problem was with McCain looking to them suddenly very old, very feeble and very vulnerable, Palin didn't bring anything solid to the ticket.
It was McCain's failure on the economy that allowed Obama to overtake and then pull away from McCain.
At least that's how I remembered it going down.
March 4, 2009 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I appreciate the post and much of what you say. However, your "as I remember it" may be slightly off. The ABC News poll just before the economic crisis broke the week of the first debate showed that Obama had ALREADY surged to a 9% lead. Palin had been exposed in the previous two weeks and -- main cause or not -- Obama had already taken a lead he would never relinquish. As I have said twice, the economic collapse meant McCain had little or no chance to catch up -- but by then Palin had already done her damage....
No one argues that she firmed up the base. But she ended up turning off the independents and "moderate" GOPers, spelling doom for McCain -- since he could never win with just the base. And didn't.
March 4, 2009 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
well said.
i really believe the so called palin bounce was because a lot of people were looking for a reason NOT to vote for Obama.
he was wet behind the ears ,,blk. the rev. thing...etc.
but palin was sooooooooooooo bad none of that stuff mattered anymore.
there is no question that mccain was never winning with palin.
in fact i was one of the very few that predicted her collapse as i watched the people especially over at Kos, make themselves sick worried over the short bounce in the polls.
there is no question the interent has changed everything.
March 5, 2009 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
The "new media" seems to get facts out there quicker. The turning point for Clinton was her claim to have been under fire in Bosnia. Within days that was debunked thanks to u tube. Same with Palin within minutes it was pretty easy to show that most her claims were false and that she had some real problems. Plus the mocking videos spread really quickly now again thanks to u tube.
Many things that would have won the news cycle and not been challenged until they were "old news" were debunked within the same news cycle.
March 5, 2009 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink