Leader of the Opposition
Secretary Clinton is tying up our traffic with her motorcade, but is otherwise getting things going here. She might have announced, as some of us had hoped, that she was reviving the 2000 "Clinton parameters"--and has not. But she's done the next best thing, stating four positions in 24 hours, each important in themselves, but also code every Israeli understands, policy positions that directly oppose what Benjamin Netanyahu (and the rightist parties bound for his coalition) ran on.
First, Clinton said that the immediate priority is to get to a cease-fire in Gaza, and she's helped raise $4.4 billion for Gaza reconstruction. She and Obama have also reportedly received a letter from Hamas through Senator Kerry, and has been quietly encouraging talks that might lead to a "unity" Palestinian government. Clinton is, appropriately, condemning the continuing missile attacks, but has also emphasized the need to get the border open. Translation: America will not support a new attack on Gaza, ostensibly for the purpose of changing the regime there.
Second, Clinton's announced that American diplomats were going to proceed to Damascus, and she's emphasized the need to create a regional alliance to counter a possible Iranian threat. Not coincidentally, while she's been in Jerusalem, President Obama's letter to Russia's Medvedev (suggesting a shelving of missile defense in return for help on Iranian nukes) was leaked. Translation: America will deal with Iran diplomatically and will not tolerate any preemptive military strike by Israel.
Third, Clinton contradicted Netanyahu's idea that an economic peace could lay the ground for a political settlement some time in the future, emphasizing (correctly,) that there can be no economic take-off in Palestine without a political settlement--also that Abbas' Palestinian Authority, weakened as it is, is peace's "partner." Translation: America will not tolerate delay in pursuing a two-state solution; that the inertia of the status quo, in effect, plays right into the hands of Hamas, on the one hand, and the settlers, on the other.
Fourth, and perhaps most daring, Clinton announced American opposition to planned house demolitions in Jerusalem as contravening Senator Mitchell's Roadmap--demolitions (as I've written about before) in Silwan. Translation: America regards East Jerusalem as part of a future Palestinian state, and further Israeli efforts at prejudicing Arab residency in Jerusalem as incendiary.
CLINTON'S MEETING WITH Tzipi Livni was, in contrast, all smiles and winks. Livni's Kadima is not the party of peace, exactly, but it is the party of America--of continuing globalization--of preventing Israel's political isolation. In Tel-Aviv, centrist Kadima and the parties to its left defeated the rightists by a margin of about 60 to 40 percent. In Jerusalem, the rightist parties defeated the center by a margin of about 80 to 20 percent. This is the fight; the rest is commentary.
Incidentally--and apropos commentary--the word "rightist" in this post (and in almost every other analysis of the situation) can be a little misleading. Some of my friends in America asked me if it does not feel like 2004, when Bush was narrowly reelected. A better (though hardly perfect) comparison would be to America electing in 1964--after the Kennedy assassination, as the Cold War and Vietnam intensified, and before the country was chastened by the civil rights movement--a government led by Richard Nixon, with a cabinet of George Wallace, Curtis LeMay, Billy Graham, and, strangely, Cardinal Spellman. Oh, and there is no Warren Court because there is no real Bill of Rights, the subject of a future post.
Anyway, Israel is a city-state, not a super-power. And the leader of Netanyahu's opposition is now in Washington.














Wager : one year from now there will be no improvement in that pig pen. Who wants to bet ? The bet does not specify whose fault it would be.
What a waste of time ...
It is completely bizarre that the Americans first provide the white phosphorus and other weaponry to blow the place up then come along with billions to fix the damage.
And the billions have to be borrowed from China.
March 4, 2009 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
What cannot this be said about? Anyway, I have a bigger bet riding on the success of a peace initiative than anything I would contemplate with you. Incidentally, I met Ehud Olmert unexpectedly at a New Year's party, December 31, 2007, and bet him 100 shekels that Obama would win the presidency. He has not paid up yet. But some others, who doubled-down, have.
March 4, 2009 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
My pet thesis is that the conflict is fueled by excess outside attention.
I believe the people living there would settle it if outsiders would stop interfering, sending money, sending weapons, yelling, preaching ...
Note that I do not choose a side. Whoever keeps fighting is wrong.
Meanwhile there is no prospect of peace, odium rules and our government wastes its effort sending high-level people.
NIce bet you made - he owes you 100 shekels.
March 4, 2009 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're right Brian, it is only outsiders keeping it going. But unfortunately the US is controlled by a war machine that needs to keep the mideast in flames to justify its budget and arms sales. The US needs arms sales, now more than ever, and peace would jeopardize American jobs. So the US is going to keep interfering, sticking its nose in where it has no business, and generally making sure peace never happens. Hillary is just talking tough because that's all she knows how to do. But she's a long-time committed warmonger, and is going to keep the war machine going at all costs. But very skillfully, as always, so that the Israelis get blamed. As always.
March 4, 2009 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agree. The arms salesmen and the millennial christians and the war-lovers get away with this because all the blame falls on the you-know-who ...
Why the you-know-who accept this blame is a mystery for another day.
March 5, 2009 1:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Noted. Meanwhile, it is easy to see that the parties in conflict share a belief that they are "fighting back." The key to progress here is exactly more attention, not less, and in the form of investment in constructive commercial ventures that can offer prosperity to the adversaries. Moreso than the arms trade you claim to deplore, and which hardly suffers from your cynicism.
March 5, 2009 9:24 AM | Reply | Permalink