Stiglitz is Correct: Don't Bow to the Dow
In nine short words, Joseph Stiglitz summarized much of what's wrong with most economic reporting and pundrity these days: "The stock market is not a good metric here."
The Columbia University economist, a Nobel Prize winner, was engaged in a conversation with Stephen Moore, a conservative Wall Street Journal editorial writer, moderated by CNN's Anderson Cooper following President Obama's Tuesday night speech.
Stiglitz was saying that a major government stimulus was required to revitalize the economy. With some caveats about bailing-out banks without a clear way to guarantee whether or how they'll lend the money, Stiglitz praised the President's initiative. Investment in infrastructure, he said, offers the most bang for the buck.
Stiglitz said: "The good part of that bill were these investments; these investments are investments that we need. We lost so much money by not investing in infrastructure."
Moore disagreed: " Yes, but Joe why is the stock market down by...
Stiglitz interrupted: "Those are good investments."
Moore repeated his mantra: "The stock market certainly doesn't agree with that."
Stiglitz responsed: "The stock market is not a good metric here."
Moore wasn't buying it: "It's a pretty good..."
Stiglitz explained: " If we give money to the banks, the stocks will go up. That's not what we're concerned about."
Political talk shows on TV are usually just shouting matches among journalists, academics, former politicians and others. Their "debate" is usually filled with clichés, not substance. This is especially true when discussing the economy, which "experts" tend to mystify rather than clarify, as though the economy operates on supply-and-demand auto-pilot, instead of being shaped by the decisions of corporate leaders, large-scale investors, and government officials.
But the debate between Stiglitz and Moore about the stock market -- brief as it was -- was important. And Stiglitz nailed it. The stock market is not a good indicator of the effectiveness of public policy, especially in response to announcements by government officials about new initiatives. The reliance by TV and radio newscasters, newspaper reporters and columnists, and quick-with-a-conclusion pundits on the stock market to assess the merits of a policy prescription, or even the health of the economy, is incredibly misleading.
Yet every night on the evening TV news, on National Public Radio, and elsewhere, we get reports on how the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices are doing -- as though that tells us something about the strength of the economy. All it tells us is how stock traders and speculators are reacting to something they haven't had time or inclination to find out about. It's no accident that, according to the thesaurus, "speculation" is just another word for "rumor" and "gossip."
The obsession with the stock market as an indicator of economic health reflects the problem that Obama identified in his speech to Congress:
"We have lived through an era where too often, short-term gains were prized over long-term prosperity; where we failed to look beyond the next payment, the next quarter, or the next election."
On CNN Tuesday night, Stiglitz pointed out what should be obvious to everyone: "If we had spent a few billion dollars (repairing the levees around New Orleans before Katrina hit) we would have saved over $100 billion" in damage.
Public and private investment in the right things - energy saving technology, medical research and health care, schools and universities, industries that don't pollute the environment and create good jobs, and infrastructure -- grows the economy in ways that are sustainable over the long-term. They lay the foundation for prosperity that can be widely shared. Making those long-term investments requires politicians, pension funds, business people, and others to look beyond the horizon.
That's the lesson that Obama was offering Tuesday night when he said:
"History reminds us that at every moment of economic upheaval and transformation, this nation has responded with bold action and big ideas. In the midst of civil war, we laid railroad tracks from one coast to another that spurred commerce and industry. From the turmoil of the Industrial Revolution came a system of public high schools that prepared our citizens for a new age. In the wake of war and depression, the GI Bill sent a generation to college and created the largest middle-class in history. And a twilight struggle for freedom led to a nation of highways, an American on the moon, and an explosion of technology that still shapes our world. In each case, government didn't supplant private enterprise; it catalyzed private enterprise. It created the conditions for thousands of entrepreneurs and new businesses to adapt and to thrive. "
That is a lesson that the news media (and most Republican leaders) still need to learn. The media's over-reliance on short-term fluctuations in stock prices to evaluate policy initiatives or the strength of the economy is a symptom of that kind of the mindless short-term thinking that Obama complained about.
It doesn't tell us anything about what we need to be looking at to assess our economic well-being: productivity growth, purchasing power, the unemployment and poverty rates, the level of inequality, the savings rate. These yardsticks -- as well as those that measure the consequences of the economy's condition on our daily lives, such as the real cost of pollution on public health, the safety of workplaces, the opportunities available to maintain a middle-class standard of living or move out of poverty - are what reporters and pundits should focus on.
Conservatives like Moore, however, think that "the market" - particularly the stock market - tells all. Moore is a one-man right-wing echo chamber. He has moved in and out of almost every prominent conservative institution over the past two decades, promoting the misleading and now-discredited view (except by Bobby Jindal, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and a their ilk) that giving tax cuts for the rich and allowing big business to regulate itself will bring prosperity. In the 1980s, Moore worked at the conservative Heritage Foundation and the libertarian Cato Institute. Then he served as Congressman Dick Armey's economic advisor when that neanderthal Republican chaired the Joint Economic Committee and pushed for a flat tax and an end to government oversight of the financial services industry. Moore was president of the Club for Growth from 1999 to 2004 and has served as a contributing editor to the right-wing National Review. Now he's a member of the editorial board of the Wall Street Journal, where he writes op-eds about the economy.
Until the 1980s, views like Moore's on the divinity of the stock market - as well as his views on almost everything else about the economy - reflected the extreme conservative wing of American thinking. But in that decade, thanks to idea entrepreneurs like Moore, the rise of a network of conservative publications, think tanks, and talk shows, and sympathetic politicians like Ronald Reagan, Phil Gramm, Dick Armey, Newt Gingrich, Jack Kemp, and others, these ideas took over the Republican Party. They even began to shape the way the mainstream press framed economic reporting. They made heroes of corporate raiders, merger maniacs, and real estate speculators and their lavish lifestyles, epitomized in the 1987 movie, "Wall Street" and its famous line, "Greed is good."
You'd think that the current state of the economy would have humbled some of these ideological zealots, but the speech on behalf of the GOP by Gov. Bobby Jindal, supposedly a rising Republican star, and its defense by the pundits in the conservative echo chamber (with the notable exception of David Brooks) reveals that these out-of-touch ideas now represent the party's mainstream.
One of these ideas is that the ups-and-downs of the stock market represent a good yardstick for measuring the nation's economic pulse. Yet there was Stephen Moore, repeating the blather.
Thanks to Professor Stiglitz for trying to teach Moore - no doubt a reluctant learner - the economic realities.




















The Dow has become one of the instruments, of the well healed.
The blue-collar worker who was sold the idea of 401 K’s has no real alternative for wealth creation or retirement security, because inflation will eat up the more conservative plans.
The workers lacking sufficient knowledge to make critical financial decisions, placing their trust in Fund managers, who are self-serving or servants of the Wealthy investor class.
If large blocks of stocks are sold or shorted, the market can send a message; not one of a consensus, but a skewed result, based upon Special interest group disenchantment.
If the wealthy can create an atmosphere of fear and panic selling at critical times, not only can it be said to be a barometer of their interest, but it also creates opportunities for the day traders who can meet the enormous Pay to play requirements.
They’ve gamed the system. Pass line or Don’t pass line. Only they have the loaded dice.
Having day trader capabilities, along with Short trading, the working class is tossed about on the waves, without control of the rudder, headed for a shipwreck.
February 26, 2009 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you so much for posting this. Every time I hear someone say Wall Street is up/down/happy/unhappy I have tried to explain that Wall street represents one aspect - one very self interested aspect of the total economy. Making Wall Street happy (going up) 24/7 is one of the reasons we are in the 'crisis' we are in.
February 26, 2009 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Purrrfect post. There is the real economy and then there are the gamblers in their casinos. And the media is enthralled about the next big stock tip. Even NPR has "market report" but no "labor report". The media is obsessed with how the wealthy gamble. And insist that we watch too. A fool's errand. So glad that Stiglitz, Baker, Galbraith and others are getting on the boob tube.
We need to set up community credit unions for investment in the real economy. We need worker owned companies that take the profits and divide them amongst the workers instead of giving millions to some CEO who then takes it to the stock market to gamble on which companies will fail. What a scam. It's just repackaged feudalism.
February 26, 2009 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gauging by the replies here, we're in for another round of Dark Ages, where ignorance and superstition crowded out everything else. The stock market is a snapshot of opinions from all over the world. It's as valid as any poll.
More importantly it's a referendum on how any particular thing from Washington will affect the real world of goods and services. You know. It's the area where things are made, profits derived, jobs provided, and taxes paid. In short, it's the goose from whence golden eggs come. Most people would think it to be a good idea to carefully monitor the health of said goose, but that requires foresight, and good husbandry.
Which reminds me, be nice to the rich. You need them much more than they need you.
February 26, 2009 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
A valid point but uninformative. "The market" is an estimate of the aggregate estimate of cash flow in the (relatively near) future of the companies measured in a particular index, given the set of aggregated assumptions about that near future.
Cash flow is itself an aggregate measure that includes all categories of income and outflow in addition to material productivity. However, in the long term, the aggregate value of "an economy" narrows down to measuring only its productivity.
The point of leadership is to provide some direction in order to choose conditions that are likely to open up future opportunities and prepare for future difficulties, neither of which is measured well by classical market indices.
One positive example the complete failure of market indices to predict the explosion of wealth creation associated with internet technologies, which caught the corporate world by surprise. Nobody saw it coming, and no market index showed any sort of lift until the tech boom got going in earnest.
Negative examples abound, usually associated with the execrable record of financial institutions and investors having failed to manage their own behavior: In 1987 (S&L) and 2001 (tech bubble) and the ongoing market failure (systemic risk of overleveraged financials).
So I agree with Stiglitz, that market indices are snapshot measurements of current and very near future conditions, but are uninformative beyond a few years at most. We can assume (correctly) that *nobody* can guess the future with great precision, but if society can come to a basic consensus concerning the tools that contribute to future productivity, then we can at least tilt the odds significantly in our favor.
Market indices tend to be a "leading indicator" representing a short-term forecast of companies' cash flows, but are entirely inadequate as predictors of long term opportunity or of material wealth-building productivity.
I associate "Dark Ages" with a broad-based loss of trust between producers and elites; a lack of educational opportunity for "the masses"; strict controls on economic opportunity for "the masses".
So if you're interested in getting a new "dark age" started up, here are some easy ideas:
1) Minimize educational opportunity for the broad population;
2) Concentrate economic decisionmaking authority in the hands of unelected executives;
3) Increase the social authority of religious leaders (particularly when those religious leaders and current executives' interests are aligned);
4) Establish conditions that discourage broad belief that an ordinary person can "get by" in society without the luck of noble birth or exceptional ability.
February 26, 2009 7:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
You might do well to read Soros about reflexivity and fallibility. He's kinda ordinary but he does have something which could broaden your horizons.
I'd point from my own views that the market has real and imaginary components, so it's quite important to discern which is which given any short term market move (say in response to a political event). Also, short covering can make prices rise but doesn't indicate a bull market starting, only the end of a definite bearish trend. Opinions are pretty cheap and highly variable, so why bother measuring them via market prices??
So it's not as simple as simplistic minds might have it.
February 26, 2009 10:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
To say the poor need the rich ignores history.
Whether it were the feudal Lords who depended on the peasant class to protect he fortress of wealth and privilege.
Think about the taking up of arms by our Fore fathers, Farmers and workers who fought against the might of the British Crown.
It was the blood sweat and tears of the lowly, which brought victory.
To say one is subservient to the other is so wrong.
But to remind those who are rich and haughty enough to think the world is centered on them.
To hear our Government take sides, telling us the working class; that we must preserve the Financial System.
To preserve a SYSTEM that has failed?!!
To be sure banking is a great civilization advance. But our current banking crisis is because of a financial, SYSTEM that should not be sustained.
When the System lost it’s moral compass, not just because of greed, but an attitude of complacency, forgetting the need for a SYMBIOTIC RELATIONSHIP.
http://www.learnthat.com/define/view.asp?id=338
“It is important that each keeps this in perspective, as if one industry tried to exert additional pressure (prisoners dilemma!) then in the short term they may be better off, but the long term survival of the relationship would be put at risk if it meant that the other player may not survive.”
We the People must not defend those who placed the Nation at risk of NON-SURVIVAL.
As taxpayers, do we really want to be forced to prop up a System that really wants prisoners?
Have credit card companies or mortgage companies shown remorse?
Or is continued indebtedness, a designed System?
What alternatives will the benefactors of the current SYSTEM allow?
If government assistance was given to the people, in order to throw off this heavy yoke, will the benefactors of this system destroy if they can’t rule?
How do we overturn the tables and schemes of these modern day moneychangers?
The rich man can sit on his money and it would produce nothing for him. Eventually he might find his gold doesn’t satisfy his hunger.
So to prevent this scenario the rich class has to design a scheme that benefits it’s self serving interest. It designs laws of property rights, and legalities in order to perpetuate the myth, the poor need us.
If the poor “could actually sit, each one under his vine and under his fig tree, and there will be no one making them tremble.” (Micah 4:4) All will have their own homes: “They will certainly build houses and have occupancy . . . They will not build and someone else have occupancy.” (Isaiah 65:21, 22),
(Psalm 72:16) . . .There will come to be plenty of grain on the earth; On the top of the mountains there will be an overflow.
Who blocks that dream? Could it be those who want to enslave others, to a SYSTEM?
A financial system that works for the benefit of one group over another.
Rich over the poor?
February 27, 2009 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
We have gone by day by day looking at the Stock Market as if it is an accurate horoscope. Joseph Stiglitz is absolutely right here. What the President has proposed are long term changes, whose effect cannot be tabulated by immediate market reactions, specifically how certain investors will be affected by it.
We have almost made the investors on Wall Street to be modern day High Priests/Oracles, who we turn to for guidance, when in reality it is just people trying to get the most for their dollars.
But we are to blame because we look for this instant sign of approval or disapproval rather than letting the legislative process do its time.
The Administration stressed this point earlier this week, hopefully it sinks in soon.
February 27, 2009 12:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
February 27, 2009 7:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent article. Redistribution of government dollars is not going to show up in the investment arena for some time and this is why the market is reacting the way it has along with the issues with the banking system. Investments made in infrastructure, education, energy, health care and the shift from the conservative expenditure agenda will provide a great foundation for prosperity down the road. Speculators will eventually adjust and the cycle will continue. Weaning the public from the instant gratification crack pipe will be a difficult task.
February 27, 2009 8:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
How interesting that when Bush was president, the market indicated just how bad a job he was doing, but now that Obama is in, it is irrelevant. Also, yes, investment in infrastructure is important. But Obama's massive Pelosi written bill spends only 10% of the total on infrastructure. The rest is just typical liberal money wasting programs. That's why the markets are tanking. His 2 trilion deficit, the biggest in history, will sink the dollar. We are heading for a Jimmy Carter economy.
February 27, 2009 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is the hangover from 30 years of fiscal retardation not 30 days of a new administration.
February 27, 2009 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
It seems more likely that the markets tanked because insiders knew that the economy did much worse in the last quarter than was let on, with forward repercussions leading to sell-offs.
February 27, 2009 4:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
OMG
CNBC just stated the sky was falling. Everyone to your bunkers!!
February 27, 2009 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Heck, the Dow isn't even a good measure of how the stock market is doing. It's the behavior of 30 enormous firms, massaged by a bunch of not-particularly-justified adjustments that pretty much guarantee volatility. The Dow got a lot of love in the early part of the decade because it did nicely even as the S&P500, the NASDAQ composite and the NYSE composite weren't doing so hot.
And that's even before you get to the notion that the stock market is not a very good indicator for economic conditions relating to people whose jobs don't involve buying and selling securities...
What's sad here is that anyone is pretending what Stiglitz said is controversial.
February 27, 2009 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Then, why do so many mark October 24, 1929 as the beginning of the Great Depression?
February 27, 2009 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Noting a symbol for its symbolic value is not "bowing" to it, unless maybe if you pray to false gods... and correlation isn't causation.
Enuf?
February 27, 2009 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yesterday BBC had a discussion of micro lending. Two representatives of micro lending banks calmly smiled and said that their cash flow is healty with good dependable returns and the whole sector growing. The success is attributed to being closer to "the real economy". This rings true.
Banks are crashing because they've been looking for the big game. Small personal loans have become credit card transactions at usery rates. The markets are in this game too.
All this nonsense has little to do with the long term prospects of economy. Money in the hands of people who work, provide service to their neighbors and deal face to face in their community are (as the successful mico lender said) the real economy. Infrastucture for that real economy to drive on, walk on, get healthcare from, etc. is the path to a productive future.
The financial sector is necessary but must not be allowed to be little more than parasites and predators. This is what deregulation fever has lead to. A symptom of the disfunctionality of "Wall Street" is their gleeful embracing of war. Big bucks to be made there but not for socioty as a whole.
Wall Street needs to take it's medicine but don't expect them to take it with out a lot of screaming and kicking. We will need to sit on their chest and hold their nose.
March 1, 2009 5:24 AM | Reply | Permalink