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Quick, What's Wrong With a Tax Cut that Shortens Work Hours?

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Everyone knows that a policy that makes sense has no chance in Washington, but let's try. As we sit here with an economy that is throwing 20,000 people out of work every day, there may be some interest in trying policies that the geniuses running things had not previously considered.

Just to get our bearings, we are in a recession caused by lack of demand. People are not unemployed because we lack food, oil, computers, skilled labor, or anything else. People are out of work because we are not spending enough money.

This should make the public furious because it is not hard to spend money. The suffering that the public is experiencing right now is entirely because of a combination of ideology and ineptitude. If we increase demand (yes, we can print money), then there will be jobs, and the unemployment rate will tumble.


The tax credit for shorter work hours is so simple that even an economist can understand it.

The deal is that if an employer reduces work hours by providing paid time off in some form (e.g. paid parental leave, paid sick days, paid vacation, or shorter standard workweeks), then they will get a tax credit from the government to compensate for the reduced time, up to 10 percent of annual pay, not to exceed $2,500 per worker.

The logic is that companies will still be seeing just as much demand as before the tax break goes into effect. Workers' pay will not have changed; therefore they will be able to buy just as much as they did before the tax break took effect. If demand is the same, but the average worker is putting in fewer hours, then firms will want to hire more workers.

For example, if employers of 50 million workers cut hours by 10 percent, and then seek to replace the lost hours with additional workers, they would need to hire 5 million workers. If they got a $2,500 credit per worker, this would cost the government $125 billion a year.

There seem many benefits to going this route, and no obvious disadvantages. First, it can be put into place immediately. The day Congress passes the legislation employers can begin adjusting work schedules to benefit from the tax cut. In other words, this proposal is as shovel ready as it gets.

Second, there is no risk of wasted spending, firms will offer paid time off in contexts where it makes sense for them and their employees. Companies will make adjustments that make sense given the structure of their workplace. In some cases, the best route could be shorter workweeks, in other cases, paid parental leave or sick days may offer the best route. The companies will decide for themselves which method, if any, works best.

Third, there is little risk of fraud. Companies would be getting the tax break for cutting back work time through some specific mechanism. The condition of getting the credit is that they post the work time reduction on the Internet. Workers will know whether or not they are getting paid family leave or whether or not they get overtime pay for working more than 36 hours a week. This should provide a very good check on efforts by employers to fraudulently claim the tax credit.

It is very difficult to see a downside risk in this story. The plan would be that the government would provide these credits for two years with the expectation that the economy is on a path to recovery by 2011. At that point, if workers and employers like the new work schedules then they may opt to keep them in place even without the tax credit, but that would be their choice. They would always the have option to return to the prior system.

If there is an obvious flaw in the working of this sort of tax credit, it would be interesting to see someone identify it. The fact is that millions of people are now unemployed because of the incredible blunders of the folks determining the country's economic policy. This tragedy will be intensified if these workers remain unemployed simply because the current crew of economic policymakers can't think beyond their standard game plan.


16 Comments

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You are aware that it costs $11,000 to buy health insurance for one employee who has a family, right? After subtracting that from $22,500 (9 times $2,500, after you aggregate 9 reduced time employees (90%)), that leaves $11,500 for pay (ignoring the employer's share of FICA plus other mandatory benefits such as workman's compensation).

So, how is this going to work, again?

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The vast majority of employers do not pay for family health insurance policies, welcome to the 21st century.

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Let's deconstruct that: (1) Some pay for the employee alone ($8,000 or more) leaving pay of $14,500 or less (still minus 6.5% for FICA, and about 2% for workman's comp and UI) or roughly $13,300. and (2) Those lucky folks who don't get any health benefits can earn roughly $20,600 (FICA and the other stuff), but, of course, they have no health benefits (unless they are parents in SCHIP households where the state is paying for the health insurance).

The problem with all the proposals to help with the economy are they are like peeing over Niagara Falls, trying to raise Lake Ontario to the level of Lake Erie. We need something more vigorous.

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Marquis,

The benefit cost story, referred to as 'quasi-fixed costs' in the literature, is a canard. There's no intrinsic necessity for benefits to be budgeted on a per-employee basis. That's simply an accounting convention. Conventions can be changed. Actually, one of the factors contributing to higher health insurance premiums is stress from overwork. So shorter hours cuts that feedback loop.

I've heard every objection in the book to Dean's idea and all they amount to "but the moon is in Capricorn!" It can't be done because... well, it hasn't been done before therefore it must not be possible! Hey, in the 1830s Nassau Senior said all the profit of business was made in the last hour of a 12-hour day. Cut the day to 10 hours and factories would go bankrupt throwing everyone out of work. Didn't happen.

For nearly a century, the economic textbook objection to shorter hours was "it's a lump of labor fallacy!" Turns out the so-called economic fallacy was a figment of a National Association of Manufacturer's public relations campaign.

I can understand the kind of wishful thinking that assigns too high a probability to good things happening. What I find astonishing is the wishful thinking that things must be harder to do than they actually are. But... but... but...

Dean's idea is terrific. Not only that, it's absolutely necessary. Without it (or something like it), there won't be a return to anything close to normal employment levels for many, many years. And full employment? Forget about it!

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Well, the tax credit idea is probably worth more study and advocacy. However, the benefits costs are evidently still a factor. The National Coalition on Health Care provides these numbers:

# The percentage of people (workers and dependents) with employment-based health insurance has dropped from 70 percent in 1987 to 62 percent in 2007. This is the lowest level of employment-based insurance coverage in more than a decade.4, 5
# In 2005, nearly 15 percent of employees had no employer-sponsored health coverage available to them, either through their own job or through a family member.6

This stuff is at http://www.nchc.org/facts/coverage.shtml

On top of that, benefits are important to workers and I have seen studies that show that when an employer pays more and offers benefits, that company will out perform the competition. Lots of businesses do not follow that, but it probably has merit.

So, how about this? We have the tax credit, but not pay for benefits. To make up for an accounting nightmare of keeping track of benefits expense that total up to about 30% of the payroll, the government could reimburse businesses that train new workers or upgrade existing worker skills.

We need a new foundation for the economy other than something built upon a bubble house of cards. So, I advocate that we try to redirect the focus of our economy and encourage long term and stable business growth built on solid plans and worker skills; not upon short-term participation in a bubble business.

More is better, so what do you think of making it a combo package deal?

Bob Spencer

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Actually, there is no reason that the credit should not apply to benefits. This is a non-issue.

I was just pointing out that few employers pay for family benefits now. Benefits are on average equal about 22 percent of wages.

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But your cap is still too low. Rather than possibly paying for benefits, until such time as we have universal single payer public health insurance it would be more beneficial to mandatorialy cover health care(for all employees guaranteeing that these employees actually have health care benefits). Spend enough to do something constructive.

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As I note below benefits are 1/3 of total costs. When divided over the wage part, that would be nearly 1/2.

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I misused "nearly." It would be 1/2.

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What portion of employers are confident of making a profit in 2009?
What about non-profits and government?

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Actually, Benefits are 1/3 of total costs...

http://www.bls.gov/ncs/ect/sp/ecsuptc7.pdf

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Hey!

What do we do to start pushing for something like this? I know of a couple of large foundations that say they want to help the status of workers. Somebody could do a pilot or just jump right in and make a plan to push it.

Bob Spencer

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But such a program would take all the fun out of firing people. What's in it for the sick and sadistic elites and middle managers?

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You're treating the government as an infinite supply of real money. Since you're doing that, why not just give every household $10,000/year subsidy to stimulate demand, with the only restriction that it be spent domestically on consumer goods (no putting it in the stock market, no paying for services)? If there are 150M households, that would add $1.5T of demand to the domestic economy. Then let people put their ordinary wealth or income into services or stocks or paying off their inflated mortgages. Or buying houses.

What's wrong with negative interest rates, anyway?
If China can have negative real interest rates, why can't we have negative nominal interest rates?

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Quick, what's wrong.

The fly in the ointment that I see is employers who are ready to lay off workers simply reducing the hours of existing workers, taking the credit, and doing no new hiring.

Any ideas about how to prvent that? Perhaps make it a condition of taking the credit? You tell me, you're the economist and I'm at the end of one workday about to start my second shift.


That being said I think that it is an interesting
idea.

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I agree with Sam. You'll be paying business to reduce employee hours. I'd add that to enjoy a tax credit, the business has to be making a profit, incurring taxes. So for businesses that aren't already profitable it's a useless provision.

In short, the businesses that are profitable don't need this... and the ones that aren't, get no benefit from it.

Let me suggest that instead of approaching this as a numbers problem, look at it as a psychology problem. What is going to change the psychology of economy? My opinion is to reduce uncertainty.
People can deal with adversity much better than the unknown. Kill the zombie banks with a flourish as a symbolic exorcism and extol the virtues of the American Spirit.

It may sound superfluous and a bit corny, but it's how people feel about the future, that defines the economy.

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