It's Prime Minister Netanyahu
In the end, Bibi Netanyahu will become prime minister. And, unfortunately, he will include neo-fascist Avigdor Lieberman in his government.
Tzipi Livni can take some personal gratification from her showing but, in the end, she can't make it.
Basically, one has to view the Israeli body politic as split into two camps, right and left. No matter that there are a few dozen parties. At the end of the day, every party that gains a seat in Knesset either leans right or left.
Today the rightwing coalition won a clear majority. It is, I believe, inevitable that President Peres will give Netanyahu the first shot at forming a government and that Bibi will succeed.
Everything depends on Obama. It is the President, not the Prime Minister, who will determine what happens now. If Obama has the will -- and I think he does -- he can push Bibi to the peace table, just as Clinton did. And, drawing on Clinton's experiences with both Bibi and Barak, Obama can go all the way.
It is just a matter of will.
MJ: If Obama wants to continue to show he's serious, he needs to call for a Palestinian vote. Abbas's term has expired. If Obama continues to treat the expired-PA President as the actual PA president, then he is just as contemptuous of democracy as Dubya.
February 10, 2009 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the Palestinians held a vote, would the U.S. honor the results?
February 10, 2009 8:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
What are the chances Netanyahu uses the possibility or siding with Lieberman to entice Tzipi Livni into a coalition with him where he would be the PM. And would Livni rather do that than allow Lieberman too much influence in the government.
February 10, 2009 8:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Meanwhile, Israel's Arabs continue to call for Israel to become a real democracy with a real constitution:
http://www.adalah.org/eng/constitution.php
On the tenth anniversary of its founding, Adalah is issuing “The Democratic Constitution,” as a constitutional proposal for the state of Israel, based on the concept of a democratic, bilingual, multicultural state. This proposed constitution draws on universal principles and international conventions on human rights, the experiences of nations and the constitutions of various democratic states.
In recent years, Israeli groups have put forward several constitutions for the state of Israel. However, these proposals are distinguished by their lack of conformity to democratic principles, in particular the right to complete equality of all residents and citizens, and by their treatment of Arab citizens as if they were strangers in this land, where history, memory and collective rights exist only for Jewish people. It is no coincidence therefore that these proposals have been preoccupied with the question of, “Who is a Jew?” and have neglected the primary constitutional question of, “Who is a citizen?”
Thus, we decided to propose a democratic constitution, which respects the freedoms of the individual and the rights of all groups in equal measure, gives proper weight to the historical injustices committed against Arab citizens of Israel, and deals seriously with the social and economic rights of all. If “The Democratic Constitution” succeeds to underscore the enormous gap between it and the other proposals, and to create an objective public debate and dialogue on the nature of rights and freedoms in this country, then we will have taken an important step forward in the issues of racial equality, freedoms and social justice.
February 10, 2009 8:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Israeli Arabs (Palestinians, actually) are being unreasonable. Lots of people are signing my loyalty oath to America as a White, Roman Catholic Republic. What's the problem?
February 11, 2009 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
he can push Bibi to the peace table, just as Clinton did.
Excuse me, but didn't Netanyahoo stop the Oslo process while in office? Clinton let him get away with it.
February 10, 2009 9:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
What a waste of time for our new president. He can delegate it to Mitchell.
The war in Pakistan, people, is about fifty times as important as this little side-show. The Afghan war has spread to Pakistan no matter how much we pretend otherwise. India is rather deeply drawn in already, running around Afghanistan, antagonizing Pakistan there ... a very grave situation getting worse rapidly.
The Israel/Palestine problem is firmly in the hands of those who hate and those who like to fight and kill. They will hate and fight and kill no matter what any peace-wishers do.
Does it hurt anyone's feelings that out country's attention needs to be elsewhere ?
February 10, 2009 9:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I think its obvious what should happen; Yisrael Beiteinu should be declared a terrorist organization, and Avigdor Lieberman and his terrorist henchmen must be targeted for assassination. They are the obstacles to a real peace solution, and therefore, must be eliminated in order for the peace process to move forward.
Just a thought experiment, to see what it's like with the tables turned.
February 10, 2009 11:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hardliner = Israeli bigot and terrorist
Terrorist = Palestinian hardliner
Rinse and repeat.
February 11, 2009 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
I just can't see how you can maintain your cheerful optimism in the face of a Netanyahu win, MJ. Haven't you been reading some of the things he's said recently? He's looking at relegating the Palestinians into life in permanent bantustans; he said the conflict is economic, not political; he vowed to keep the Golan Heights; he said that Jerusalem should be "undivided" (and by that he means undivided and under complete Israeli control, not "undivided" in the sense of being an international holy city, open to all). One might chalk it up to the pressures of the election, but Netanyahu has always been out there.
Jeez, you know how he is, MJ. This spells the end of any real peace process, with the only possible chance to revive it being if Obama is willing to threaten the withdrawal of U.S. financial/military support. The only silver lining is that is something that is much easier to do with an extremist like Netanyahu at the helm. Of course, he'll go on all the U.S. cable news stations and pretend to be reasonable, but I don't think he's as smart as Obama, so I don't know if that will work this time, even with all the help he'll be given by folks like Wolf Blitzer - not after the Gaza debacle got such widespread attention. And there was the Bob Simon interview...
But I think I'll stick to my original reaction. Americans are too worried about the economy to want their President wasting time, fooling around with Israel, especially with an intransigent PM and when the Israelis don't really want peace anyway (they wouldn't have elected Netanyahu if they did). This is just about the end of any hope of a two state solution. :(
February 10, 2009 11:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wordie - I agree Netanyahus election can delay the 2 state solution but it surely doesnt end any hope of it. In fact i think it says a lot that Kadima beat out the likud and achieved the most seats in the knesset. No matter how right wing MJ wants to describe Tzipi Livni - Kadima has stated clearly over and over that there goal is a 2 state solution. Whether they really mean it, doesnt matter, because the people voted for Kadima simply for that reason. If there is one clear distinction between Likud and Kadima its that Kadima says it will work towards a 2 state solution and sees that as an ultimate Israeli interest and goal.
Governments change and with that so do policies. In Israel especially we seem to like elections. The Israeli voter sways a lot. After Lebanon and Gaza and having to deal with 1000's of rockets flying into civilian towns the Israeli people swayed to the right. But not everyone wants to completely lose hope (thus Kadima still won so many seats and this despite its failures and criminals among its party members). When there will be quiet they will sway back to the center and left.
But i definitely dont have MJ's optimitism that Netanyahu would give anything up. He cant. No matter what Obama says. His right wing government wouldn't allow it. If there is quiet and Obama puts enough pressure to make Bibi look like the one stalling peace the Israeli people will turn again and put back someone they think can negotiate peace. If there wont be quiet it will be harder for Obama to put pressure on Bibi and Bibi will continue to maintain the full support of the people in the "fight against terror".
February 11, 2009 10:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for your reply lh, but I don't even have your level of optimism, much less that of MJ. The Palestinians just don't have the luxury of the time it might take to wait out another change of governments in Israel. Illegal settlement has increased so much over the last years, that there's little hope of a viable Palestinian state even as it is. Did you see Bob Simon's piece on 60 Minutes? He just confirmed what anyone watching the situation could clearly see anyway: the two-state solution is pretty much dead. Too much illegal settlement and no hope of an Israeli government that would be willing to stand up to the extremist settlers, even though they know they should go.
And now the death knell of the two-state solution has been wrung by Netanyahu's election. :(
February 11, 2009 6:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cole leads:
http://www.juancole.com/2009/02/right-wing-sweeps-israel-racialist.html
February 11, 2009 4:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
The two-state solution has been a rotting, stinking corpse for a while now. It's long past time to bury it. Those who keep trying to resurrect it are either holy fools or diabolical necromancers.
February 11, 2009 7:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
It expired with Abbas's term of office. How come our government hasn't noticed?
February 11, 2009 10:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hard to find grounds for optimism in these Israeli results. The biggest bloc was that of the 1/3 who didn't bother to vote. Barak, the only major candidate with any "land for peace" track record, finished so poorly he is not even mentioned in the New York Times lead article on the election. Even Barak, who had in the past opposed Ariel Sharon and his policies of brutal oppression against Palestinians, ended up adopting a similar (though obviously less successful politically) approach in helping orchestrate the recent senseless slaughter in Gaza. Hard to see any "right" versus "left" divide in a country where all the major groups are perfectly okay with slaughtering children for no reason. Not "ends" justifying "means" but means justifying means while Orwellian New-speak propagandists in Washington find deceptive sound bites of the week to feed their mouthpieces in the US Congress.
The only candidate with any kind of workable plan seems to be Lieberman. He would grant independence to a Palestinian rump state and force Israel Arabs to cut or fish bait in the sense of either signing a humiliating oath, or emigrating (e.g. to that new rump statelet). But can anyone trust him? Wasn't Hitler in September, 1938 basically saying all he wanted was to bring all territories with ethnic German majorities together under one Reich while Jews and other unwanted minorities left peacefully for some other country?
Obama has a more than full time job grappling with the financial mess and economic recession, Mitchell is an intelligent and well-meaning Sisyphus, and Hillary Clinton has not much experience dodging sniper fire overseas or taking 3AM calls.
I appreciate your fine reporting and commentaries, MJ, but Obama is not superman. In democracies such as Israel and the US, at some point, voters have to take responsibility. Please do continue to inform us, as you have been doing forthrightly, clearly, and skillfully, but don't dump responsibility for years of prior apathy and hypocrisy onto Obama's plate. ("Everything depends on Obama"). That assignment has already been claimed by the Karl Roves of the world, and Obama will anyway have plenty of future opportunity to make mistakes for which he SHOULD be held accountable.
I know, virulent anti-communist Nixon shook hands with Mao, and Irgun terrorist Begin shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Sadat. But they had help. The key roadblocks to peace in the Mideast today are (a) the silent acceptance by the overwhelming majority of Arabs, Moslems, and various and sundry "progressives" and pacifists around the world that suicide bombing cafes or rocketing apartment buildings equals "resistance to occupation" and (b) the less overwhelming but still widespread silence of Jews in America to the unrelenting idiocies uttered on Capitol Hill lest a supposed Jewish third rail electrocute its craven and hypocritical inhabitants.
February 11, 2009 4:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ya know MJ youre nice , moses says no frogs for mossad juss yet.
Congrats on election whatever the result delivers in the mix of diabolism..duzzent matter, unless we do.
you glow on one branch focus..abit duller than fossfor us .all branches see dna diversity does not need to resolve , death forwards resolve to inert nothing
smile my friend and dont ride and dont same time morebrush up the easy wave of any threat to your personal under stand or your served picture. Dont serve that or do up anted into the onto clash of rhetoric on any TPM poster .You are smart enough to find,
So option some doubt to yourself; respect vehement nonmilitary conviction no matter what you preclude it to be in terms of total. Out the lttlevoice of yours , the same that hides in us all , but not the daughters of the palestinian surgen who was cheapshotted by the Label ISRAEL, Go there speak nonviolently and fully shamed and defined; part of the present diabolical extravagance as it spills ,do that with your craft and you are not subscribing to intellectual exodus ~/- regards from Moses
February 11, 2009 7:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
The corpse of the two-state solution is in rigor mortis and icy cold. Obama, Clinton, Mitchell pretend to not notice it. The air is filled with the sweet incense of peace talk masking the foul smell of the decaying body.
The difference between Bibi and Livni is that Livni wears lipstick. With either one the settlements will continue, the checkpoints will expand, the disproportionate use of force is policy, the transfer will be initiated. Bibi and Lieberman make their intentions known up front. Livni, on the other hand, will do the same except she wears the cosmetics, the makeup of peace to entice Obama and Abbas to dance a tango with her. As they dance around the corpse she will whisper into their ear "Isn't it beautiful?"
February 11, 2009 8:59 AM | Reply | Permalink