Do the Math: Three Scenarios
Do the math, given these results (more or less):
1. To get the president's mandate to form the next government, Benjamin Netanyahu, who has fewer seats than Tzipi Livni, will need to lock-down a majority of Knesset members, which means a coalition of:
Likud+Lieberman+Shas+various ultraOrthodox and ultraNationlist parties.
This he can almost certainly do, and, given his victory speech, intends to, although Lieberman and Shas despise one another. And Netanyahu will find himself in Obama's Washington and the mainstream media about as popular as Rush Limbaugh.
2. For Tzipi Livni to get to a majority, she would need:
Kadima+Labor+Shas (or Lieberman)+Meretz (or Arab parties).
Shas (or Lieberman)+Meterz+Arab parties? Forget it.
3. Netanyahu or Livni or both could work toward a "national unity" government:
Kadima+Likud+Labor (or Lieberman, or Shas).
Netanyahu would (in one version) have to concede the prime minister's chair, as the major party with fewer seats--which he would be utterly opposed to, since he could form a rightist government of his own.
Or Livni would (in a second version) concede the prime minister's chair and lose the chance to anchor a fighting opposition, with Labor in opposition, and Netanyahu busy alienating the world.
There is talk of a rotation agreement, as in 1984.
MY BET IS that Netanyahu will form a rightist government, and take his chances with Washington, the collapse of relations with the PA, and riots among Israeli Arabs.
Brace yourselves.
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Bang on, I'm afraid.
February 10, 2009 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bernard say:
"MY BET IS that Netanyahu will form a rightist government, and take his chances with Washington, the collapse of relations with the PA, and riots among Israeli Arabs."
Yeah, right. Pelosi will go to the wall to protect Palestinian human rights.
February 10, 2009 7:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am still in awe that the Israeli voter, more educated and astute than their US brethren, are so ignorant in their voting and the ramifications of same! What gives?
February 10, 2009 7:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obviously not.
The US electorate had their dalliance with this level of stupidity in 2004, but Israeli voters have made these same mistakes again, and again, and again.
I think the Israeli electorate's motivation can be summed up with a single word, DENIAL.
Israelis all know what the problems are, Israelis all know what the answers are. Once again, the Israeli electorate has proven the are not brave enough to stand up to the settlers and make the hard decisions that are necessary.
February 10, 2009 7:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
IMHO, some mix of the following:
1. Israeli Jews are not notably more educated than Americans. It's hard to get exactly comparable statistics, but a quick check of the Statistical Abstract of Israel makes clear that less than 30% of Israeli Jews have a 4-year college education, very similar to Americans. I'm guessing you are assuming Israelis' demographic profile is similar to American Jews' or projecting from Israelis you may have met here -- very different. See Avishai's post yesterday for a reasonable outline of Israeli political sociology. As for astute . . .
2. Educated people, including Americans, are sadly quite prone to bizarre views, self-delusion, extreme stubborness, etc., and frequently don't vote in a "reasonable" fashion.
February 10, 2009 7:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
What gives? Just imagine if the US suffered a terrorist attack every week, what our government would look like.
When people are driven by their fears, eventually their education and sophistication doesn't matter, because that's not the part of their brain their thinking with. They vote for whomever they think will keep them safe - and they don't really care how they'll do it.
The tragedy of Israel is how their fears about the future have become a self-fulfilling prophecy. At a time when they need leadership that is visionary and clear thinking, all they have are thugs like Lieberman.
February 10, 2009 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's a shame that, despite the shocking and encouraging victory by Kadima, that the same bad outcome will result--Netanyahu as PM again.
February 10, 2009 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
afraid of obama and the US media?
that some kind of a joke?
February 10, 2009 7:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
"ISRAEL MOVES TO THE CENTER"
That's what a quick look at the headlines on my Yahoo and Google homepages tells me
So what it really tells me is that the Israel Lobby has done its job
The US media, not to mention the US public, have a cartoonish understanding of Israel past, present and dark future
February 10, 2009 7:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Israel Moves To the Center" ?
From where? Are they pretending that as of today Kadima is now the "Center" as opposed to yesterday when it was something else?
What bollocks.
I despise our media. They can't even report honestly on Israel's election results.
February 10, 2009 8:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Israel is done. This cooks it, unless Bebe is not the man he has proven to be in the past.
If he is prime minster, this puts them at the cross roads of -
A) Committ genocide on the PA- Cut off all supplies and bomb them.
B) Do a version of South Africa where all Arabs are forced out of Israel, or are forced to further non-democratic conditions
C) All of the above, and worse.
We really can't continue to prop up Isreal if they continue to treat the Palistians the way they are, and under Lukid, they don't have any plan or choice to do otherwise.
More death, more fighting. Eventually, the demographics are on the side of the Arabs, and they will lose, unless they find peace now.
February 10, 2009 7:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
B) Do a version of South Africa where all Arabs are forced out of Israel, or are forced to further non-democratic conditions
An expulsion doesn't have to happen all at once, like 1948, to be effective. Ask yourself this question: If Iraeli policy were to be to make Palestinian life so miserable that the Palestinians emigrate in sufficient numbers to solve Israel's looming demographic problem, in what way would Israeli actions be different from what they are now?
February 10, 2009 8:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wait, I'm sort of confused by your math.
Going over the numbers now, Kadima + Labor has the same vote as Likud + Lieberman. The two right wing parties add 11 to the right, but then Meretz and the Arab parties add 14 to the left.
It seems like it all comes down to Shas, and what Shas wants. Or rather, which side has coalition members Shas hates more.
February 10, 2009 8:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is going to add fuel to the fire of anti-Israel commentary, but there's no escaping the fact that Israeli political coalitions have never included the Arab parties and a coalition that depended on Arab parties to maintain a majority would be unthinkable. There are both good and bad reasons for this, but that's the reality.
February 10, 2009 11:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Arab parties were an unofficial part of Rabin's coalition and Sharon bought/relied on their support for several key Gaza-withdrawal votes, but yeah, as a rule you're right.
February 11, 2009 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is very depressing if indeed Netanyahu is the next PM. Keep in mind last summer during Obama's visit to Israel, Netanyahu's insufferable condescension when speaking to Obama, lecturing him that Israel can do nothing with regards to a peace process until Iran is no longer a threat.
To which Obama replied, "I don't agree with that sequence".
Hoo boy, Obama's going to have to learn to wield the stick with Israel, and FAST. He's also got to do it with enough diplomatic skill so as to not to piss off the AIG.
He's got a full plate of foreign policy ahead of him if/when he ever gets out of Washington dealing with the rethug obstructionists.
February 11, 2009 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
What would should of done is what Sweden did when faced the same problem: nationalize the banks, nurse them back to health and then sell them to the highest bidder.
In terms of Obama, I am growing tired of watching him try to make friends with RNC crime family. I will reserve a verdict until I see what he does to pursue prosecutions for past crimes (war crimes, the attempt to dismantle our rule of law through the politicization of the Justice Department, spying on Americans).
He has the mandate of the people and we are pissed.
February 13, 2009 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink