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Axelrod And Emanuel Were Right (On The American Bank Oligarchs)

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When you cut through the technical details and the marketing distractions, sorting out the US banking fiasco comes down to one, and only one, question. How tough are you willing to be on the people who control the country's large banks?

One option is to be gentle with them and adopt only ideas that they pre-approve. This route involves complicated schemes to purchase, lend against, or otherwise "wash" toxic assets out of the banks using taxpayer subsidies. This will be expensive (for the taxpayer), will be messy politically, and - most likely - will not work, in the sense of restoring the banking system to something close to its normal mode of functioning; check with Hank Paulson for details.

Alternatively, you can be tough and take steps towards really assessing which banks are insolvent when you use market prices to value their assets. These banks can be taken over in a scaled-up FDIC-type procedure (no golden parachutes!), and controlling stakes in fully recapitalized banks can be sold off immediately to new private owners. The new private owners can handle, under proper anti-trust supervision, the break up of the banks. This approach will be cheaper for the taxpayer (but nothing is free at this stage), easier to explain to the electorate and their representatives, and it will work - this is in fact the standard prescription because it always works. But it will not make powerful bankers happy.

So which way is the Obama Administration heading? We honestly don't yet know; the signals are mixed.

Indications that we are rolling over for the banker lobby are: (1) weak executive compensation caps, announced last week; and (2) insufficient money available or yet sought to back up the recapitalization that should follow the "once and for all" stress test of the banking system. The math on point (2) is: there is only $320bn left from TARP, of which - we learned today - $100bn is to go in further support for the securitized credit market, $50bn for housing support (and this could end up higher), and at least $50bn for private-public toxic asset purchase/loan scheme (this is my inference from the statement that this bank should be $500bn going on $1trn total). The $120bn or so left over is probably not enough to recapitalize one major troubled bank, let alone the entire system.

But there are also more positive signs. Secretary Geithner was much more critical of bankers and their compensation schemes than officials have been to date. And President Obama is clearly angered by bankers' arrogant bonuses. The Administration's messages of transparency and accountability are refreshing and exactly on the mark. And I liked this line from Geithner (from CNNMoney),

"These banks need to understand that access to government resources is a privilege, not a right. It's not for the banks. It's for the people, and companies depend on that."

Do the banks understand this? Read Lloyd Bankfein's article in Monday's Financial Times, and tell me if you see any such indication from the CEO of Goldman Sachs.

So how do you get the message across? Obviously, we need the comprehensive stress test immediately and it has to be transparent and very tough. And this is where David Axelrod and Rahm Emanuel have apparently been exactly right in the past 10 days. According to press reports (NYT yesterday and WSJ last week), both have pushed for tougher symbolic and substantive actions that would hurt bankers' pocketbooks and weaken the largest banks.

Remember, weakening the big banks and their bosses should not be seen as an unfortunate side effect of beneficial medicine. It is exactly what we need to do under these circumstances. Unless and until these banks' economic and political influence declines, we are stuck with too many people who know exactly what they can get away with because their organizations are "too big to fail."

And weakening these banks (or actually having some of them go out of business and be broken up) as part of a comprehensive system reboot - with asset revaluations at market prices and a complete recapitalization program - will help return the credit system to normal.

For reasons that are not obvious, Axelrod and Emanuel have not prevailed on the degree of toughness towards the American Banking Oligarchy. But this may change. Let us hope it does soon.


48 Comments

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A better reason to fairly evaluate the banks is that is the best path to recovery of the financial system.

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Obama is not as smart as he thinks he is, that's for sure. He knows fuck-all about economics and finance. His great talent for picking good people also failed him or, rather, was sacrificed to his obsession with kissing the ring of every power center in Washington, including the Clintons, which he did by filling his economic team with Clinton retreads.

Barack needs someone to tell him that the people who created this mess, which includes Summers and Geithner, are not the ones to rely on for advice now. Their motivation is to prove themselves right, not do the right thing.

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And your qualifications for making such an assessment is......?

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Rich,

um, he can read?

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Good points all!

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I wonder if the Obama administration realizes that the past 8 years of plutocracy and imperial misadventure have pushed a lot of otherwise run-of-the-mill liberals pretty far to the left. So far that, right now, this constituency is watching Obama very carefully, and completely prepared to back a third party candidate in 2012--a candidate who could milk the inevitable lemon socialism backlash and pick up a few million disenchanted Obamanauts in one fell swoop--vote-splitting be damned.

I would call myself a member of this constituency. I used to roll my eyes at the Nader supporters. Now...I'm not so sure.

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If by "backing a third-party candidate" you mean work towards reconfiguring from top to bottom one of the (two) parties that have a snowball's chance of actually winning the election so that that party might actually put forward someone who will actually present a truly radical challenge to the status quo, then absolutely, go for it.

If on the other hand you mean what is usually meant, that is, divide your natural allies and be (temporarily) embraced by your natural enemies, "this constituency" would at least do less harm if it just stayed home, sank into its respective sofas, and threw one empty beer can after another at its TV's.

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Ha ha ha ha . . .

That sounds like a great plan to hand the reins right back to the rightwingnuts for another 4 or 8 or 12 years. Just what the country needs - Palin as President and Romney as VP. With Mr 9/11 as Sec of Defense.

Ha ha ha ha. . .

You know, knee-jerk reacting is not REALLY thought process. Even thought the Red-staters think so.

.

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Ha ha ha ha . . .

That sounds like a great plan to hand the reins right back to the rightwingnuts for another 4 or 8 or 12 years. Just what the country needs - Palin as President and Romney as VP. With Mr 9/11 as Sec of Defense.

Ha ha ha ha. . .

You know, knee-jerk reacting is not REALLY thought process. Even thought the Red-staters think so.

.

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This situation reminds me of the Churchill quote: 'You can always count on Americans [in this case, Team Obama] to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else.'

Of course, we're only in the first inning here, and Obama has shown flexibility. So my fingers are crossed.

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Nine months from now, "the right thing" will be too late and we'll be stuck in a deflationary trap.

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So, just so I understand you: the best way to fix the banking system is to...weaken the largest banks? And not only weaken them, but also arbitrarily force a couple into bankruptcy so they can be nationalized and auctioned off? I'm guessing it doesn't really matter if we kill off a solvent or insolvent bank, right? So long as the example is made.

I wonder, wouldn't it be easier (and cheaper!) to just summarily execute a couple dozen top management guys instead? I mean, following your logic, that would get credit flowing again in no time!

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The zombies must die...because, this being very analogous to a bad B horror movie, if you don't the living will become the zombies next victims.

Plus if we don't there will be no disincentives to make sure we don't end up here again in the future. "Well they took care of us last time so why change the way we operate?"

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Do you have evidence that credit is not "flowing"?

But before you present that evidence (and just so the relevance of that evidence can be judged), perhaps, you could say what you mean when you employ the metaphor "flowing." How you determine when credit is or is not "flowing."

As an aside do you, also, say that the "flow" of credit is "choked"? That it's been reduced to a "trickle"? Become "frozen"?

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Well, taking a look at what you've written I would have to conclude that, in fact, you do not understand what the author of this post was trying to convey in terms of weakening the banks or having some of the insolvent ones disappear. Go back, read it and you'll see your interpretation distorts what was written and what was meant by it.

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Weaken them politically, yes.

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I wonder, wouldn't it be easier (and cheaper!) to just summarily execute a couple dozen top management guys instead?

Works for me. If we can't get rid of them as a class, we need to have some way of deterring them from doing this again.

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There is a big difference between recognizing the existence of a bankrupt status in a bank and forcing one into bankruptcy. If they can avoid bankruptcy on their own, more power to them. No one drove them into bankruptcy. They did it on their own.

There's not a bankrupt bank out there that hasn't gone bankrupt on its own hook, either by operating badly or by participating in a crooked system of their own making, a system which the failure of some banks is now taking down for all of them. Banks are in the business of taking measured risks and saying "no" to the bad risks. They failed to say no to too many bad risks and should have known better. Way too many bankers let high fees and great personal gain blind them to the risks they were accepting. Their managers let them and encouraged them to take those risks with other people's money. Now the piper demands his due.

The alternative to recognizing they are bankrupt and acting on that recognition is for the taxpayers to bail out the stockholders of their bad investments and the profligate executives for their bad business decisions.

The rules of the free market and justice say that bankrupts are NOT bailed out by the taxpayers who are forced to pay taxes. That's called justice.

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I advocate giving Obama a little more than the three weeks he's already taken to solve these problems. I know, I know, three weeks is a long time to resolve a teeny problem like this, but I want Obama & Co. to relax (a little) and think things through, so that we have a higher quality plan.

I don't even think the Obama administration has all its people in place yet.

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Very funny, but Geithner's been involved in this crisis from the beginning, he has had time to think about what needs to be done, he's been throwing up trial balloons like its his birthday, and given the lack of detail or significant justification, there is a lot of uncertainty about how many days this idea is going to stay on the table until he thinks of something else. Its incompetence on so many levels.

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Obama said that he would filibuster the FISA Bill, then he didn't.

Obama says "nobody is above the law" buts he wants to move on, doing nothing about the law breaking - so Obama will not address the torture of the Bush Administration. Obama talks about the shame of Wall Street bankers, but it's the same story. Obama won't do anything. So by now we know that Obama is all talk and no do, and yet we're all about to hand him this huge stimulus bill - it's won't do any good because Obama can't stand up to the thugs on Wall Street.

Obama said a depression won't "happen on his watch" but he keeps not doing anything that he says he is going to do.

It's looking bad, it's looking real bad. We need to put back food for families because we going into a depression and these poeple in those towns where the lay-offs are bad, can't get enough food to eat. Obama isn't going to stop these depression. Obama can't say no to the Wall Street mafia, he won't do anything, and Obama has no problem telling Americans he'll fix it, but he not fixing anything.


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Wow, you're so right. People are starving in the streets. Is there any way we can convince Hilary to stage a coup?

Or here's a better idea. Why don't you crawl back under your rock, stop representing anecdote as data, and let the Obama administration have more than twenty days to fix the problems that Bush compounded over eight years? Obama has repeatedly shown that he is in it for the long haul. Part of the process of winning in the end is knowing when a tactical retreat is the smart move. Making prosecution of Bush officials a top priority right now would only look like partisan retribution to a whole lot of people, just at the time when Obama needs widespread public support. Because of his skill at marshalling public opinion, Obama today managed to pass an $800bn stimulus package that focuses largely on benefits to lower and middle income families. Twenty days into his first term. In addition, he reversed or put a hold on a huge number of poison-pill executive orders issued by Bush in the waning days of his administration; he removed the anti-choice gag order on international clinics that receive U.S. aid; and he issued executive orders that require all U.S. government personnel to comply with international conventions against torture. All of these were things he promised to do. Grow up.

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Banks that are too big to fail are too big. Period.

What is needed is quite simple. Wipe out shareholders, nationalize them, and break these monopolies apart.

If there are institutions that are absolutely critical for the proper functioning of society that the bankruptcy of any one of them will lead to the collapse of the nation, then those institutions are too important and/or too big to be in the hands of a few private individuals that don't have to answer to the public.

This should be like a bandaid; just pull the damn thing off in one swipe. This slow killing of the banks is only going to prolong the pain.

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Everyone should read or listen to Dean Baker's The Conservative Nanny State. Read the book and watch the scales fall from your eyes. Link hear: http://www.conservativenannystate.org/

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"The Citigroup bailout was a good deal for Citi shareholders (who wouldn’t appreciate a big transfer from the taxpayer during this holiday season?) and a great deal for Citigroup management. But it also has three global implications that perhaps have not yet been fully thought through."
-Simon Johnson, Dec. 2008

Where was the outrage two months ago?Everyone is in punitive mode - kill all the bankers. No one mentions the Boards of Directors. These men and women serve their masters, who theoretically serve the shareholders and bondholders and employees and customers. Punish everybody? It's happening.

There is a lot to praise in the Geithner plan, and I believe the critics are far too harsh in claiming there are no specifics. $100 billion in TALF to be leveraged to $1 trillion for education, credit card and auto loans, for example. This has got to help.

Geithner was forced to take the middle road because of the opposition of Republicans and the parade of know-nothings on television spewing nonsense. "The public" knows nothing, absolutely nothing, about the financial crisis, as do many "experts" and if politicians are going to determine policy because of ignorami, we are in worse trouble than a mere financial crisis. We all know that.

The greatest mistake in the current financial debate is trying to link the value of all assets to the "market price" as if the market price is always right. The market price can't be trusted if there is no market, if paper and assets aren't liquid and don't trade. Nobel Prize winners and academics can be wrong, and frequently are.

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There is a lot to praise in the Geithner plan, and I believe the critics are far too harsh in claiming there are no specifics.

Read Yves Smith and tell us why she's wrong.

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"Thus Geither's belief that government can't manage assets is sheer projection of his own inability to deliver."

She (?) lost points with that one. Not only does she not spell his name right, but "sheer projection" is ignorant or sheer projection on her part.

She does bring up some decent points later.

It is possible that G. is incompetent or too biased. It is also plausible that the situation doesn't yet call for detailed plans. "Timing is everything" might apply.

"But they do not have the ability to have much of an independent view of the risks in derivatives exposures, CDS, CDOs. These take a lot of specialized skills within the product area."

If the risk uncertainty is significant in this area, then caution is good. I've been calling for more info and "forced unwinding" in this area.

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"Thus Geither's belief that government can't manage assets is sheer projection of his own inability to deliver."

She (?) lost points with that one. Not only does she not spell his name right, but "sheer projection" is ignorant or sheer projection on her part.

She does bring up some decent points later.

It is possible that G. is incompetent or too biased. It is also plausible that the situation doesn't yet call for detailed plans. "Timing is everything" might apply.

"But they do not have the ability to have much of an independent view of the risks in derivatives exposures, CDS, CDOs. These take a lot of specialized skills within the product area."

If the risk uncertainty is significant in this area, then caution is good. I've been calling for more info and "forced unwinding" in this area.

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Not only does she not spell his name right . . . .

Hmm. Does she extra credit for the 11 times she spelled his name correctly on that page?

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And while you're at it, you might want to answer Martin Wolf's question: "Has Barack Obama’s presidency already failed?"

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You may be able to get to the Wolf article without registering via this Google.

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And finally kindly explain how a relatively charmless, stature-challenged (cf. Paul Volcker), career bureaucrat who, as past head of the New York Fed, has his ink stained fingers all over this disaster could sell any policy or program whatever to the American people.

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"Geithner was forced to take the middle road because ..."

Nonsense.

I don't know that 10:1 leverage will help, esp. if the perceived risk of bad loans exceeds 10% failure. He's just doing the "90% loan guarantee" thing as given to BAC and Citi, in reverse. He's giving a 10% hedge instead of a 90% hedge.

The BAC and Citi loan guarantees should be rescinded or severely modified.


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"Geithner was forced to take the middle road because ..."

Nonsense.

I don't know that 10:1 leverage will help, esp. if the perceived risk of bad loans exceeds 10% failure. He's just doing the "90% loan guarantee" thing as given to BAC and Citi, in reverse. He's giving a 10% hedge instead of a 90% hedge.

The BAC and Citi loan guarantees should be rescinded or severely modified.


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Could we please stop talking about "the banks" and "the bankers" as if these were meaningful collectives?

Commercial banks range from behemoths like Citigroup and BoA through regional banks to very small entities. Wall Street houses are a whole different species. On the front page Josh Marshall is referring to Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs as banks. Those two didn't even register as bank holding companies until the crisis forced them to; they have very little in common with the lenders choking on bad debt that we're talking about these days.

Some commercial banks appear to be insolvent. Some surely aren't. Some were to blame for the crisis and some weren't. Focusing all of our feeling into a generalized hatred of "bankers" is not a productive way to get out of this mess.

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Maybe we should all agree that on this board "banks" means "big Wall Street banks" or the 5, 10, or 12 "systemically significant" banks (SS Oberbanken).

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We shouldn't refer to them as "banks" or bankers", we need to use the names of the cretins involved in running these institutions into the ground.

The headline shouldn't read "Morgan Stanley etc." it should read "John Mack's Morgan Stanley etc..."

nor, "Citigroup etc..." but "Robert Rubin's Citigroup...."

not "Goldman Sachs", but Henry Paulson's Goldman Sachs..."

"In 2004, at the request of the major Wall Street investment houses, including Goldman Sachs, then headed by Paulson, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission agreed unanimously to release the major investment houses from the net capital rule, the requirement that their brokerages hold reserve capital that limited their leverage and risk exposure." Wikipedia

Out the SOBs.

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Since the taxpayers are going to take possession of the toxic paper the banks are holding, should not the executives who's bonuses were enlarged by the initial purchase of these losing investments be forced to give back that portion of their bonuses connected to this toxic waste?

heh heh heh

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The top 20 US banks have about $13 trillion in assets. The smallest of these is Key Corp with about $101.5 billion in assets. These are the banks that will be subject to the "stress test".

Then next 30 US banks have about $1.1 trillion in assets. The smallest of these has about $13.7 billion in assets.

Banks farther down the list don't really matter much to the economy, either individually or in the aggregate, except as a source of employment and political contributions.

See http://www.ffiec.gov/nicpubweb/nicweb/Top50Form.aspx with adjustments for the National City, Wachovia, and Merrill Lynch mergers and the conversion of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to banks.

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"should not the executives who's bonuses were enlarged by the initial purchase of these losing investments be forced to give back that portion of their bonuses connected to this toxic waste?"

Every time the NYTimes runs an article on this, the comments are positively flooded with commenters arguing just that (and more).

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analyzing this from a more right-brain angle: why is it that Obama has such faith in, such a soft spot for bank executives (most recently Wolf, Lew and Froman)? Could be because of his deep attachment to his grandmother, who was a career bank executive. In fact, Geithner, in his interview with Brian Williams last night, even looks a little like the late-age picture of Mrs. Dunham that appeared in one of Obama's campaign commercials.

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soft spot


Too fuckin' deep....if Ken Lewis takes to wearing a babushka and batting his eyes while he testifies, we'll know that something is up...

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maybe you should stop using that side of your brain...

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"Could be because of his deep attachment to his grandmother, who was a career bank executive."

Interesting point. This just is like so much else that is put over by/ about Obama--like how his mother was on foodstamps. His mother was on foodstamps because she was a perpetual student, duh.

You can tell some people anything.

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Unless and until these banks' economic and political influence declines, we are stuck with too many people who know exactly what they can get away with because their organizations are "too big to fail."

Simon Johnson is the first person I've seen in print who understands the primacy of the political struggle here -- instead of treating this as some sort of technocratic exercise to be worked out by the "experts."

My working assumption, bolstered by something I picked up from a friend in the industry, is that Geithner/Summers et. al. have concluded that effective nationalization (i.e. Johnson's "scaled-up FDIC-type procedure) would be an unacceptable blow to the prestige of the US financial system and leave the government permanently or semi-permanently emeshed in the business of running banks.

Obama hinted as much yesterday when he complained that those favoring the Swedish model (full nationalization followed by reprivatization) were ignoring the fact that Sweden was dealing with a total of five banks.

But the real issue isn't number, it's scale. In other words, when Sweden nationalized its banks, it changed some of the players. But if the US or the UK nationalize their banks, it will change the entire game in ways that won't be easy to unwind.

Another friend, who covered the 1997-98 Asian crisis as a financial journalist, also argues that in the end, no matter how much a nationalizing government promises to "clean house," the big banks ultimately end up back in the hands of the same guys who blew them up -- the skills and insider intellectual capital required to run a major financial institution (even recklessly and incompetently) not being in great supply. So what's the point of going through an elaborate "scaled-up FDIC-type procedure" to end up more or less where we are now?

I don't think I entirely agree with that argument: I think it can be useful, if only for deterrence sake, to take a bunch of greedy bankers out and shoot them (or at least, ruin their careers) as a warning to the rest.

But breaking their power entirely? It may not be possible.

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"Simon Johnson is the first person I've seen in print who understands the primacy of the political struggle here... ...Geithner/Summers et. al. have concluded that effective nationalization (i.e. Johnson's "scaled-up FDIC-type procedure) would be an unacceptable blow to the prestige of the US financial system"

Yes, but I think that their assumptions are overly convenient. You can just as readily argue that what the international community would expect is that a government would come in, clean it up thoroughly, and evict the untrustworthy parties--who colluded in mortgage and securities fraud and sold the garbage to *them*-- not that a government should coddle the criminals they can't trust.

Unless, we're saying that international finance interests are all equally corrupt, and what they really want is to be free to toss it right back at you with equal impunity.

Is that what we're saying? Because I think there is *no possible way* the US can do otherwise than go in and thoroughly clean it up. We're causing political problems all over Europe.

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Please tell me that you are not so stupid to believe this garbage:

"So how do you get message across? Obviously, we need the comprehensive stress test immediately and it has to be transparent and very tough. And this is where David Axelrod and Rahm Emanuel have apparently been exactly right in the past 10 days. According to press reports (NYT yesterday and WSJ last week), both have pushed for tougher symbolic and substantive actions that would hurt bankers' pocketbooks and weaken the largest banks."

rahm emanuel being tough on wall street? what a bunch of complete nonsense. but you know, some anonymous chicken**** white house official that won't give their names out say they say so, so I guess so, huh?

But somehow rahmbo, who takes great pride in never losing a fight goes down with a whimper. could he be taking a dive?

"For reasons that are not obvious, Axelrod and Emanuel have not prevailed on the degree of toughness towards the American Banking Oligarchy. But this may change. Let us hope it is soon."

keep hoping mate, something tells me rahm will keep on trying reeeeeeeal hard, but somwhow won't be able to quite get it done. at least that's what anonymous white house officials will say so it'll have to be true, right.

I can't believe people still fall for this nonsense or know and think that we'll keep falling for it.

WAAAAAAAAAAKKKKKKKEEEEEE UUUUPPPPPP!!!!!!!!

Z

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Geithner seems the same cloth as Paulson . . . in the category of rich financiers . . . makes me very nervous. Despite the obvious situation of being uncharted territory, we cannot use it as an excuse and rush into a plan until there is some assurance that this money will be returned.

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