Republicans Cut 500,000 Jobs Out of Stimulus Package
Let's extend our congratulations to Senators Susan Collins and Ben Nelson for having negotiated a stimulus package that will produce 500,000 fewer jobs than the one passed by the House. Who knows, if the House had its way, the unemployment rate might never cross 10 percent.
There seems to be a real problem with how the folks in the Senate think about stimulus. We have an economy in free fall right now. The data show us losing almost 600,000 jobs in January and the true picture may be even worse.
To counteract this downturn, the federal government has to create demand by spending money, lots of it. The amount of money that we want to spend is a function of the weakness of the economy, which seems to deteriorate by the day.
Trying to save money on stimulus, is like finding a short cut for your jogging route. We can do it, but it undermines the whole point of the effort.

















Absolutely correct! So apt it needs to be reprinted everywhere. But it's not just the Republicans. According to TPM tonight, Harry Reid seems like he wants to cut Republican tax cuts to match, or at least offset, concessions that the Democrats make.
This compounds the problem. The Democrats shouldn't give in to the spending restraints in the first place. But, if they do, asking for tax cut concessions just takes even more money out of the stimulus.
The stimulus needs to be a combination of smart spending and smart tax breaks. But, beyond that, it has to be at least 5% of GDP to have any effect at all. Cutting from both the spending and tax cut sides does nothing but shrink the size of a bill that needs to be huge.
February 7, 2009 1:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
So ---
In dollars, how much of the tax cut is going to be spent each year?
And in dollars, how much of the authorized spending is actually going to be spent in 2009? In 2010? In 2011?
"Huge," thou never wert!
February 7, 2009 1:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Harry Reid seems like he wants to cut Republican tax cuts to match, or at least offset, concessions that the Democrats make. This compounds the problem."
Well, it depends on the tax cuts he wants to cut. For instance, the tax rebates on past profits are a nasty piece of work. They go mainly to companies who had outsized profits over the past few years - i.e. the zombie banks who suck up money like black holes. The multiplier on a lot of these is not just low, it's zero.
February 7, 2009 9:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
The one concession that the Senate GOP ought to wring out of the Dems is that all businesses and states that get stimulus money need to be required to use E-Verify to make certain that all of their workers are legally authorized to work here - that could save as many as 300,000 American/legal immigrant* jobs.
*Or other legal alien.
February 7, 2009 1:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm on tenterhooks waiting to see how much better our lives will be in the next 6-12 months. Christmas this year will be the bestest ever.
February 7, 2009 2:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
shooter,
I'm also on tenterhooks wondering IF you will admit life is better if things start turning around in the next 6-12 months.
February 7, 2009 9:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
"There seems to be a real problem with how the folks in the Senate think about stimulus. "
Maybe they are fools and idiots. I consider myself foolish and idiosyncratic if reasonably intelligent, but I believe that if you set out to explain the "real problem" clearly in simple terms, at least one of us would walk away the wiser for it.
Job numbers are in free-fall. What else is there?
"To counteract this downturn, the federal government has to create demand by spending money, lots of it."
You want the government to borrow a trillion dollars (to use a round number), take that money/credit out of global circulation where it's maybe not working very hard, and dump it into a huge pile of "little" programs mostly at the State and Local levels? That will help drive up interest rates, keeping us away from the dreaded "liquidity trap" (which isn't what it seems to be as far as I can tell).
I'm a bit unclear on how and when it gets paid off, and how much bang for the buck each of these 400 or so billion dollar babies can be expected to provide. Or will the government simply have the Fed print up this trillion dollars right away, or in a few years?
Maybe if you could explain that to the Senate, and to me, you would get some more votes. After all, if parts of this bill are supposed to be a stimulus, shouldn't we know if the viagra is safe and effective before we take it?
February 7, 2009 2:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
So it is going to be Ben Nelson's and Susan Collins' stimulus plan for all intents and purposes?
Wow such power for 2 senators to have. They are such experts on the economy that their plan will supersede the president's? Well at least we'll know who'll be responsible if this proposed half-baked stimulus package they want to implement fails...
February 7, 2009 3:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually four senators:
Collins and Snowe from Maine, Spector from Pennsylvania, and the democrat Nelson from Nebraska.
They've cut state aid, infrastructure, tax credits for the poor. They've added tax breaks for car- and house purchases.
Will no one in the MSM call these people out? Hilarious or sad, I don't know.
February 7, 2009 8:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wait just a minute!! Don't you dare forget Joementum! Why the great Harry himself thanked the honorable Joe Lieberman right there on live TV.
Who won the election? The Republicrats. And their economic policy will be as big a winner as was their Iraq policy.
February 7, 2009 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's probably very important that respected economists and others introduce an evaluation method for all of the parts of the bill. In addition, the economist have to be able to communicate their design and findings to the press and anyone else that can influence public opinion.
The recession will last long enough that if this bill helps, then we can continue to add to the parts that work. But, it's important to say before the various programs begin how we can measure its impact.
Bob Spencer
February 7, 2009 6:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes.
February 7, 2009 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know using caps is impolite, but HARRY REID HAS TO GO.
He's a weakling and a fool who seems to think that he's dealing with honorable opponents.
February 7, 2009 6:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
jomiidkay,
I agree. I witnessed another example of Reid's shooting himself in the foot last night while watching the Senate on C-SPAN.
After McCain finished his SECOND vicious attack on Obama and the Democrats, Reid turned to McCain and said he hopes the Senator from Arizona stays on the floor for a few minutes, then Reid went into a babble on how wonderful and honorable John McCain is. McCain puts two knives in Reid's back then Reid kisses McCain's ass.
February 7, 2009 9:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe McCain will buy a couple more houses and that will help create jobs and make scooter242's Christmas the bestest ever.
February 7, 2009 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe McCain did buy a couple of new houses, was unaware that he did, but got a swell deal, because he purchased the real estate at depressed prices due to the credit crisis. The man was soundly defeated at the polls in November, trying to sell the same nonsense that got us in the mess in the first place, and is now pushing the same stuff. At what point do they accept the defeat, shut their big mouths, and get with the new program?
February 7, 2009 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I only hope that the real clunker in the Senate Bill, i.e., the $15K tax credit for buying an (overpriced) house, gets tossed in conference. There are so many better ways to stimulate the economy than to prop up an asset class whose inflated values led to the crisis in the first place.
February 7, 2009 6:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Its actually worse than it looks. As Baker has said elsewhere, it will be actually very easy to game this system, - trade houses with your neighbor - and make a bundle. The cost can be astronomical - much higher than the supposed 15bn dollar estimate that the MSM cites.
February 7, 2009 9:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have a better proposal.
It can cover first time homebuyers and those who are trapped but need to move (job change, retirement, whatever).
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/eds/2009/02/housing-market-liquidity-idea.php
It says that the problem is lack of liquidity or mobility in the housing market. People who owe too much cannot sell the house reasonably. It allows government (or angel investors) to buy into equity in a transferable way.
It is not a gift, because the angel investor holds a second mortgage or takes fractional equity in the new property.
Please comment.
February 7, 2009 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, Dean, there is a way to "save money on stimulus." According to Moody's Economy.com, as posted by Robert Reich, here...
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robert_reich/2009/02/senate-republicans-and-the-sti.php
...we can reverse the Bush tax cuts immediately, at a cost to GDP of only 29 cents for every dollar of new revenue raised, and spend the money on infrastructure, with a GDP boost of $1.59 for every dollar spent.
We'd get a net benefit of $1.30 for every dollar involved in this swap, without spending a dime (net).
Why don't we do this? Ah, yes. Politics.
-- ARG
February 7, 2009 7:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why are Baker and Reich apparently ignoring our good ideas??
February 7, 2009 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
As per customary for longer than I care to consider the senate has sold us down the river for reasons of political expediency which entirely ignores what the nation wants and needs.
Instead of doing things that could have conceivably laid a foundation to resolve the things that are really of consequence, we have a piece of legislation that doesn't come near addressing core issues that would enhance our ability to compete in the global marketplace. I find it particularly shortsighted to have gutted the educational pieces of this package. Tax cuts don't come close to providing the economic benefits that a well educated and highly trained work force would yield. These are stupid people who have again created the framework for a stupid outcome. If they all died tomorrow we could just put them all in a mass grave with a marker that says: Here Lays Stupid. I have absolutely had it with these shitheads where everything they do is politically motivated and have zero to do with this country. Obama should just declare martial law and round them all up as traitors. Because thats what they are. Where every day they place the cost of anything and everything worthwhile out of the reach of the majority, they are harming this country. Stupid. Stupid. Stupid.
February 7, 2009 7:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
If we want to stretch the whole Obama = Lincoln metaphor further, then surely Harry Reid is George McClellan.
We busted our asses to get a near super majority of Dems in the Senate, and Reid just handed that power to 3 Republicans and 1 Copperhead in the form of Ben Nelson.
How long before Obama asks, "If Reid won't use his army then perhaps he could let me borrow it."
February 7, 2009 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Who can be Obama's U.S. Grant, then?
It wouldn't be Durbin (currently next in line to Reid). Who could it be? Jim Webb, maybe?? John Tester? (It's gotta be someone mavericky.)
Can the President even do anything about the Senate leadership of his own party?
-- ARG
February 9, 2009 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
We Lost. There is no other way to look at it. We began this process with a larger majority and more political capital than any Administration could dream. Instead of promoting a bill that was almost exclusively built on stimulative spending (food stamps, infrastructure, aid to states etc.) we started with a bill built on bipartisanship and campaign promises and ended up with a bill that is nearly 48% tax cuts and excludes and reduces the most elemental part of a stimulus.
Many are blaming Reid - and he is to blame - but the real culprit is the Obama administration. They started off to conciliatory and allowed the bill to be hijacked by a group of hooverite Republicans/Democrats wed to concerns of spending reduction.
Obama should have been in control of this bill throughout - ensuring that every Democrat (Nelson included) was on the right page and that the pliable Republicans were given there marching orders.
Much like Cheney and Bush, you should have forced there hands and threatened dissenters electoral futures. They did not do this. Rather, they made to many early concessions that backfired and lost control of the congressional process.
In fact, Reid wanted to call a vote two days ago - believing he had the votes. Instead, Obama decided to simultaneously invite Snowe, Specter, Collins et al to the White House to cut the bill to an imaginary and arbitrary number.
And here is the kicker: This bill - in its current form - will not do nearly enough. Any sentient being knows that tax cuts return less than is spent. This is a loss and will do to little to reroute the economy. This is a problem. No more covering up. We lost.
February 7, 2009 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's right. Obama doesn't know how to use his own base (you know those people who voted for him in the primary while Joementum was having an affair with McCain).
Obama should have gone much farther to the left with the bill. Could the Republicans have howled louder? Would one more Republican have voted against the bill in the House? Would CNBC have filled its programs with more Republicans? Of ourse not, but Obam would have been able to negotiate a better bill and he could have put the fear of God into the right putting them on notice that they'd be negotiating with the likes of Tom Harkin and not cozying up to Nelson and Lieberman.
February 7, 2009 11:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Centrist 'Gang of 20' Senators Took Instructions From Rumsfeld
http://satiricalpolitical.com/?p=6010
February 7, 2009 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
I do wonder what world these people live in--is there some kind of parallel universe that is intersecting with ours in D.C. and New York where the economy can be saved by tweaking at the margins--but I'm not at all surprised by Obama. He makes great speeches, but his politics were always fundamentally Clintonite. He wasn't outmaneuvered, any more than Clinton was on welfare reform.
February 7, 2009 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
The idea that the federal government can solve the US's economic problems by just printing up money and writing bad checks is so off-the-wall and uninformed it's hard to believe that anyone is seriously suggesting it. It's frightening that this idea is even being discussed at all, much less being passed. And any economist that can blithely dismiss years of two-trillion deficits as totally inconsequential desperately needs to go back to school and review the basics. As bad as the economic problems are now, it's absolutely nothing compared to what will happen after a few years of trillion dollar deficits. That's the very epitome of bubble thinking. But I guess people have to live and learn.
February 7, 2009 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is not "just printing".
Consumer and producer debt got us here. Why can't government debt help level the playing field, if used well?
February 7, 2009 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Bush tax cuts didn't spur job growth, but new tax cuts will? I’m not a fan of either party, but the demand for further tax cuts is just the continuation of the Bush policy, which was a failure, since the results of that tax cut policy are what we are seeing now. Although temporary tax cuts can put a few extra dollars in the hands of those who have a paycheck, it does little for those who are unemployed. It’s not in the Republican mantra to lower the taxes of unemployment checks, since their focus is geared more for upper income tax cuts. The Democrats, for their part, wanted to fund everything under the sun no matter the immediate value to the economy and the unemployed. Tax cuts sound good, but are not the answer to steepening unemployment. If I receive a 10% income tax cut, I’ll be saving it and not spending it, and I have a feeling many others would do the same. The result of that tax cut would be greater savings, but little in job creation spending.
Job creation is what is needed and tax cuts won't lead to job creation, or the Bush years would have created more jobs than at any time in history. Take a look at http://layofflist.wordpress.com/ to see the daily carnage of job loss.
February 7, 2009 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tax cuts don't help those without taxable income!
Bush deficit and war spending "created" jobs. But it didn't help keep wages growing at all.
It sure does look like the "recovery bill" is a dead pig in a poke!
February 7, 2009 5:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
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