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Sea Change: Israel Policy Forum Advisers Recommendations on Middle East Plus NY Times On Gaza War Horrors

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Former Ambassadors Sam Lewis and Ned Walker publish an oped in today's Boston Globe which consists of recommendations to President Obama on next steps in the Middle East. They are among America's most distinguished diplomats and are writing as advisers to Israel Policy Forum, which is a mainstream pro-Israel organization and which, incidentally, employs me.

Their recommendations include: an American push for a long-term (at least ten year) armistice in Gaza which will end all attacks on Israel in exchange for an end to Israel's blockade; US support for Israeli-Syrian negotiations and the return of our ambassador to Damascus; an Obama announcement of support for Arab-Israeli negotiations under he umbrella of the Arab (Saudi) Initiative; a total settlements freeze and a crackdown on settler violence. The ambassadors also would reduce America's 3 conditions on changing our relationship with Hamas to just one: end the violence. Totally. They recognize that demanding that they recognize Israel and adopt all previous Israeli-Palestinian agreements prior to negotiations is a nonstarter.

On Iran: within his first 100 days, "Obama should announce his support for broad negotiations with Iran, without prior conditions, on all outstanding issues. These would include Iran's nuclear program, its activities vis-à-vis Iraq and Afghanistan, and its overall stance toward Israel - with specific reference to Iran's support for Hezbollah and Hamas. If there is progress in these negotiations, the president should declare his intention to reestablish formal diplomatic relations with Iran on a reciprocal basis as soon as Tehran is ready to do so."

Additionally, the Israeli media reports that last week Ambassador Lewis shared his views with Special Envoy George Mitchell in Jerusalem. In other words, the IPF recommendations are in Obama's hands.

It's changing. Sea change? We'll see.

PLUS: More Gaza horrors

Excerpt:

"Omar Abu Halima and his two teenage cousins tried to take the burned body of his baby sister and two other living but badly burned girls to the hospital on that Sunday.

The boys were taking the girls and six others on a tractor, when, according to several accounts from villagers, Israeli soldiers told them to stop. According to their accounts, they got down, put their hands up, and suddenly rounds were fired, killing two teenage boys: Matar Abu Halima, 18, and Muhamed Hekmet, 17.

An Israeli military spokeswoman said that soldiers had reported that the two were armed and firing. Villagers strongly deny that. The tractor that villagers say was carrying the group is riddled with 36 bullet holes.

The villagers were forced to abandon the bodies of the teenage boys and the baby, and when rescue workers arrived 11 days later, the baby's body had been eaten by dogs, her legs two white bones, captured in a gruesome image on a relative's cellphone. The badly burned girls and others on the tractor had fled to safety.

Matar's mother, Nabila Abu Halima, said she had been shot through the arm when she tried to move toward her son. Her left arm bears a round scar. Her son came back to her in pieces, his body crushed under tank treads."


32 Comments

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Mostly good first steps, MJ, but I'm afraid there is still a bit of denial or avoidance in this op-ed when it comes to the settlements.

You're not going to get a durable ten-year armistice by just calling for a "freeze" of the settlements. The US needs to make a clear and definitive statement, finally and at long last, that the US regards the Israeli colonies in the West Bank as illegal, and standing on occupied territory, and that the peace the US seeks aims at the removal of virtually all of the colonies. If we just call for a freeze, we will not be able to restore trust. The Palestinians will justifiably suspect that this is yet another US-Israeli stalling and diversionary tactic, and that the purpose of the freeze-and-truce is to freeze the settlements in place. That's not a peace process; it's a trick.

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Yes, the statement about settlements is very tepid.

You have Netanyahu and Lieberman doing a duet with the settlers as backup chorus singing 'This land is our land'. The Israeli public is in the audience clapping along and enjoying the show. All of them looking at the heavens and swaying back and forth to the beat of bulldozers demolishing homes.

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I have to agree on settlements. Unless the US comes out forcefully and unequivocally that the settlements need to go all the other good steps will falter.

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I agree.

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The U.S. needs to strongly demand that Hamas ends the violence.
Hamas steals aid parcels from U.N.

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Dude: They want to hand out the aid. They are not going to let the Dahlan gangs use UN aid to wash away their treason.

Stealing? Smuggling? These are legal words. It presumes that Israel has the right to control everything that goes into Gaza. And opposing Israel is "smuggling." Laughable.

Hamas are the elected majority in the Palestinian parliament. Just because we don't like them, does not make them "theives."

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I think you might have hit it on the head! A strong demand by U.S. to Hamas! That could be the one piece that's missing and needed to end this whole conflict.

Say, you weren't a Bush advisor on this issue, were you? Every morning at some unspeakable hour like 7:30 am they would have a meeting about issues of the day, and advice such as yours was provided just about each morning and they all nodded. (One day, they agreed that Ariel Sharon was a man of peace and a statement by Bush to that effect would be the perfect thing, do you remember?) In case you didn't get in on those groupthink affirmations, if there is just some way you could get yourself back in time and get in those morning meetings, you'll find a *lot* of agreement with your innovative thinking.

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The ambassadors also would reduce America's 3 conditions on changing our relationship with Hamas to just one: end the violence. Totally.

Something that simple could be the cardinal breakthrough to at least begin honest negotiations between the two camps. Israel's demand for recognition essentially presumes to dictate Palestinian foreign policy, and begins the process by humiliating Hamas; provisos to honor previous agreements tie Palestinean hands, and anchor them to past conditions.

That's why such demands are made: To assure committed negotiations never take place. Peace would require some "give" from Israel, including settling the matter of lost Palestinian property from that people's long-ago diaspora, and the future of contested real estate today. It would require changes in the way Israel treats Arabs generally, including stratification of citizenship within its borders.

Making peace from both sides - however temporary - the only prerequisite for talks is the best way to begin this essential process.

That's why it won't happen.

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As a post-script, our negotiations with Iran are a moot point: We'll have to sit down with them. We no longer have a choice. Our exorbitantly priced empire-building has helped bankrupt us. What will we do? Bomb and charge the bill on our China MasterCard?

Doing so Obama will have to cross the Rubicon and do the unthinkable... perform an act so grave and earth-shattering it might just split the sky and jog loose a downpour of toads: He'll have to tell Israel "no".

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Deep Thought. If Bibi is elected, will the USG consider him in compliance with past agreements when he's gone on record saying he opposes creating a Palestinian state?

Bibi is unveiling the 15th (and heretofore secret) Israeli reservation to the Road Map: "We accept the Road Map Unless it Leads to a Palestinian State."

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Ten years mucking around with settlers is plain crazy. They've been freezing the settlements then re-defining what they mean by freezing since God was a corporal.

If want to resolve this, you need bold steps, not temporizing. In other words, you need to take a different path, not warmed-over failed formulas.

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How about a technical solution: counterbattery radar and weapons to destroy incoming rockets from palestinian positions (defense companies have been demonstrating this for 25 years against far more sophisticated weapons than cheap tactical rockets) along with funding constraints that put settlements last on the list for protection. I know it wouldn't satisfy anyone's desire for vengeance, but it would keep actual Israeli territory safe.

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Or how about: Whenever a settler calls in a complaint in Hebron, the IDF should just hang up.

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I think you might have hit it on the head! A strong demand by U.S. to Hamas! That could be the one piece that's missing and needed to end this whole conflict.

Not enough demands or demands that were not strong enough. Lack of demands is so obvious a cause of the problem that it is amazing that no one thought of it earlier.

If it doesn't work, it will merely need to be stepped up to a really strong demand.

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A ten-year armistice or truce or whatever it's called isn't going to bring peace, but the contrary. It will just let the situation fester, and create a situation of constant tension. The world should get out of the way and let Israel end the war once and for all, force Hamas to surrender and recognize Israel. They are quite defeated, and out of options. That's the way wars end, all wars, and that's the only way this one can end: with a victor and a loser. Israel won, has successfully established itself, and it's time people accepted that. Allowing the Palestinians or anyone else ten years to avoid confronting this basic reality and inescapable fact of life isn't going to help anyone. It's not dealing with the situation, it's just punting it down the road ten years. And Israel shouldn't give up any land, not one square inch. That won't solve anything since the Arabs will just see that as weakness and demand even more land. And victors don't give up land, the losers do. That sounds harsh, but that's the way the world works. The Palestinians made a huge mistake 60 years ago when they declared war on Israel. Unfortunately, like everyone who makes mistakes, they have to pay for them, they just don't go away.

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THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH TIME:

Religious Extremists Rising Through the Ranks
An IDF Jihad?
By Jonathan Cook, from Nazareth - February 4, 2009

Extremist rabbis and their followers, bent on waging holy war against the Palestinians, are taking over the Israeli army by stealth, according to critics.

In a process one military historian has termed the rapid “theologisation” of the Israeli army, there are now entire units of religious combat soldiers, many of them based in West Bank settlements. They answer to hardline rabbis who call for the establishment of a Greater Israel that includes the occupied Palestinian territories.......

ENTIRE ARTICLE - http://www.counterpunch.org/cook02042009.html

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mikep: A ten-year armistice or truce or whatever it's called isn't going to bring peace, but the contrary. It will just let the situation fester, and create a situation of constant tension. The world should get out of the way and let Israel end the war once and for all, force Hamas to surrender and recognize Israel. They are quite defeated, and out of options.

Well, Hamas is quite defeated and out of options for at least two years. The question arises why such a powerless movement provokes such a massive massacre. Militarily, Israel won many times over and refuses to acknowledge the fact. Now Israel trembles at the thought that Hamas could do some diabolical stuff if they allowed cement to be delivered to Gaza, and G.d forbid construction materials that contain metals!

This is really "nothing to fear but the fear itself" situation. If you defeat people but you do not exterminate them, they hate you, so you need to keep them powerless and destitute, so they hate you more, so you are afraid more and have to clump down more, and they call you bad names, etc.

Israeli public seems to be to traumatized to be rational. And how traumatized Palestinian public is?

The problem with the last Israeli war is that it was too insane. Israel agreed to a truce, broke the truce (killing 6 Hamas members in a single attack), violated the conditions (blockade) prior to that, refused offers to renew the truce and THEN declare utter necessity to "defend herself". Without any provocation that was not duly provoked by more bloody prior acts.

But Hamas are bad folks, practically Nazis! Moral equivalence is a though crime! Sorry, Israeli government behaved worse than putative Nazis. But Hamas does not recognize gay rights, and is generally retrograde and backward! While Israeli military rabinate preaches Holy War. But Hamas shoots rockets with UTTER INDIFFERENCE TO INNOCENT LIVES, while IDF takes extreme care to avoid collateral casualties. Yet, Israel kills 100 times more people, so that extreme care is not worth very much.

I think 10 year truce with no blockade is a totally necessary idea, and one that hopefully will force and end of settlements. Hamas should be allowed to create prosperous and non-corrupt polity, if they are able to do so. It is a win-win: the governments of Egypt and PA will have to show that they can do better than the backward medievalists, in the case of PA, with Israel's help (or lack of the current obstructions). And if Hamas fails, not so bad either, if they fail without our aid. Now, with settlement expansion it is not possible to create decent life for West Bank Palestinians, and without that, Hamas wins.

What is the alternative? Pretty simple, actually. Maintain the siege, tigthen it, and periodically bomb. Perhaps daily. Keep the population in the state of paranoia. But can it be continued successfully forever? To paraphrase Trotsky, can you maintain paranoia in one country alone? As this insanity is increasingly at variance with reality, its receives increasingly tepid international recognition -- if any.

Recently Prime Minister of Turkey called the President of Israel a murderer of women and children, who revels in murder. Somehow, I did not find any condemnations of Erdogan, at least not of being a slanderer. He was intemperate, his conduct lacked decorum, he should remember what Turkey did to Armenians (and acknowledge that) etc. But nothing about slander. Seems that Erdogan says loudly what friends of Israel think quietly. In time, it may cause problems.

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The U.S. needs to strongly demand that Hamas ends the violence.parça kontör

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