TPMCafe
« Broadband Stimulus | Home | Political Contributions and the Reform of the Criminal Justice System »

No Social Security Deal, Ramesh

user-pic

Ramesh Ponnuru of the conservative National Review proposes a deal for Social Security reform in which Republicans and Democrats each "will have to give up at least one cherished goal." For Republicans, that concession would be to accept that "Mr. Bush's dream of letting individuals invest Social Security funds is dead." Democrats, in return, "will need to take tax increases off the table."

Ponnuru's proposal is about as reasonable as Bernard Madoff offering his former investors a chance to get in on his next deal for only half the fees they used to pay. Why would Democrats even consider compromising over the future of the nation's most successful government program, which is playing an important role in softening the blows of the current economic crisis, when Congressional Republicans have already demonstrated that "saving" Social Security is the last thing they want to do?

President Bush's proposal to privatize Social Security, which was endorsed by the lion's share of Congressional Republicans (as well as Ponnuru), would have greatly weakened the program's existing protections while massively increasing the federal debt -- underscoring the hollowness of conservative rhetoric about fiscal responsibility. That effort collapsed as the public came to recognize that the idea simply made no sense, a realization borne out as investment markets subsequently crashed.

Ponnuru's op-ed doesn't include a single number or fact about Social Security's future. Here are a few: if absolutely nothing is done, the latest projections of the Congressional Budget Office show that the program will be able to continue paying promised benefits in full until 2049. After that point, payroll tax revenues from future workers would be sufficient to pay 84 percent of scheduled outlays. So the long-term financing challenge would be to close that relatively modest gap in the distant future. An increase of just 1.06 percent in the payroll tax, or a combination of minor tax and benefit adjustments adding up to that amount, would solve that problem.

Given the collapse of housing values and investment markets, which have greatly weakened the personal finances of families approaching retirement, a much more logical debate over Social Security would focus on a consideration of benefit increases rather than cuts. Even on a temporary basis, boosting benefits would help to stimulate the economy; studies show that older Americans are more likely to spend additional money they receive. In any case, since Republicans have demonstrated that they can't be trusted to look after Social Security's future, there's no reason to try to adopt ideas for the program that would make them happy.


25 Comments

| Leave a comment
user-pic

The Republicans lost. Let the go away.

user-pic

Democrats should have figured out what the multiplier effect of increased SSN benefits would be and put it in the stimulus bill.

I'd be more than fine with means testing that. How come no one thought of it?

user-pic

The trouble with means testing is that the Republicrats start claiming it's welfare, and then use this to try to get rid of the whole thing.

user-pic

A better idea would be to quit taxing social security benefits. Right now, they are taxed three ways: (1) Your social security tax is a tax, that is paid out of (2) taxable income (so you pay income taxes on the social security tax (at least, I think so)) and (3) many retired people pay income taxes on a portion of social security income.

Getting rid of the tax on social security income would be much the same as an increase in benefits.

user-pic

. . . if absolutely nothing is done, the latest projections of the Congressional Budget Office show that the program will be able to continue paying promised benefits in full until 2049.

Except that lot's will be "done"!

In the next few years we'll be adding $5-6 trillion to the national debt. Thereafter, as inflation begins to bite the interest costs on the federal debt (includes the SSTF's special issue debt) together with the inability to roll the SSTF debt over at anything like a reasonable cost will insure that Congress will change the program.

Bush may not have destroyed social security as we've known it during his term of office but he laid the groundwork to force us to do so in the future via eight years of incompetent, anti-middle class economic policies.

user-pic

Any modification of Social Security Benefits to reduce them will reveal the lack of an honest link between Social Security taxes and the benefits they "insure." It is a retroactive tax increase (payroll taxes) on the poor and middle class.

The only way to avoid this effect is to raise taxes on the wealthy to tax those assets they protected while the payroll tax was generating surpluses.

user-pic

Well, I don't disagree with Ellen. The Bush years and policies were good for the super rich, okay for the wealthy, okay for the very poor and terrible for anyone in between.

Of course, I don't view that as a case for increasing SS benefits; its a case for rolling back things he did do, not doing things he didn't.

And declining house values may be a fact of life but they were a windfall while they lasted; values are collapsing back to where they should have been anyway, not to zero.

And the idea that Social Security is the most successful federal program ever is a joke. The Interstate Highway System beat it (and probably anything else, ever) by miles.

user-pic

Strains to determine what "successful" means. Interstates were successful at emulating Nazi Germany's Autobahns, making us dependent on cars and trucks while weakening rail, depressing the smaller towns that helped travelers, and making it hard to transition away from automobile culture.

user-pic

seriously. the interstate highway system is an ongoing national DISASTER!

user-pic

Here are a few: if absolutely nothing is done, the latest projections of the Congressional Budget Office show that the program will be able to continue paying promised benefits in full until 2049.

That is assuming that the government takes the money to make up for SS deficits from the "Social Security Trust Fund." The problem is, that the "trust fund" represents no net assets of the government, because for every penny of assets in the fund, the general fund has a penny of obligations.

So the "continued paying of benefits" is premised on the general fund having the money to pay out future SS deficits.

user-pic

That claim is not technically correct. The GF is only one of two sources (assuming no change in payroll taxes) to pay off the SSTF debt obligation from the GF. The other source is borrowing with Treasury Bonds.

In any case, the GF should be easily repaid from the assumed increased productivity in the private sector generated by increased capital investment when the already wealthy were allowed to keep their tax obligation in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s (offset by payroll taxes that were used to build up the Social Security surplus) and invest that wealth. If the private sector is so excellent, we should have a surfeit of taxable wealth available to solve this problem.

user-pic

We liberals often think of the SSTF as a sacrosanct promise the government made decades ago and upon which the average American has relied -- the "full faith and credit" argument.

And there's justice in this position, because the SSTF funded the income tax reductions of Clinton and Bush II which principally benefited high income earners. Liberals have, as well, argued that the SSTF was established to fund the retirement needs of the Baby Boom generation.

But the history of SSA commissions and legislation suggests that the growth of the SSTF was unforeseen and unexpected. If Congress didn't intend to establish the SSTF in the form it has come to have in the minds of liberals, then, Congress can alter it.

In the late 1970s the social security program regularly threatened to become insolvent because payroll receipts did not rise as rapidly as Congressionally mandated COLAs to benefit rates. Congress kept changing the FICA rates, but inflation was so severe that the new rates quickly fell short of producing the revenue that the program required.

The Greenspan Commission of the early 1980s was tasked with solving the problem of these biennial emergencies - to solve the political problem of members of Congress having to revisit the minefield every few years. It was not tasked with solving the Baby Boomer problem which might appear 40 years later.

Based on the recent history of very high inflation the Commission recommended and Congress adopted a large increase in FICA rates. The increase was understood to be more than required in the early post-Commission years and the excess was to be returned to the general fund, the SSTF receiving special issue debt in return. But the SSTF's life was expected to be limited -- 10 years or so until inflation ate up its holdings.

But it didn't happen that way. Inflation fell steadily and the SSTF was no longer fulfilling its initial role, but Congress not wanting to give up a cash cow never changed the Greenspan scheduled rates.

If there's a point to my history it's that we shouldn't rely on the "promises" of a Congress which didn't know it was making them and which we've created in our own minds based upon subsequent history.

user-pic

Regardless of your account, failure to use the GF or other government funds to reimburse the SSTF will result in a retroactive endorsement of massive regressive taxation consequent of raising the payroll tax, offsetting the GF, and reducing taxes on the wealthy. When the TF needs the money, the wealthy will have to pay it back.

user-pic

Otherwise, the middle class will have a clear message that no one in Congress cares the least about them.

user-pic

What Middle Class?

The rich ate it, then spit it out.

Now there is the poor, the rabble, the mob. And the rich don't want to pay the bill. It's not "their" problem.

user-pic

Whenever you hear anyone propose social security reform, there is one and only one reform to support:
1. Raise the ceiling on the the payroll taxes (eliminate it) and expand it to non-payroll income.
2. Continue the benefits under current practices (as if the ceiling were not eliminated).
3. Use the surplus thus generated to solve the health care finance problems.

user-pic

Memo to Ponnuru and all conservatives:

You lost. The American people over the last 2 election cycles have clearly rejected your ideology. So any notion that the politicians the people chose to lead us should try to implement any of the conservative ideology would go directly against the wishes of the American people. Taxes should be increased on the wealthy (upper 10%) to fund any potential shortfall in SS. The wealthy, who were the beneficiaries of the deregulation boom which has caused this economic mess, should be the ones who now have to sacrifice along with everyone else (if not more) to help us get out of it. All tax breaks for anyone making over $250,000 per year shouldn't be taken off the table, they shouldn't even get near the table to begin with.

Conservative ideology = the root cause of our problems.

user-pic

Not one cent more for Social Security or entitlements. When it comes to questions of federal policy, why is it that the "needs" of seniors outweigh every other policy alternative, again and again and again? I for one am sick of that lack of fundamental prioritization of sustainable long term growth policy. We should never borrow money to fatten seniors or any other sector of the population, instead if we borrow, we should borrow to fundamentally invest in the long term growth of our economy. That means investment in new jobs and whole new indsutries, not additional handouts to seniors! Talk about putting the cart in front of the horse.

user-pic

The only reason we borrow is that we have a fundamentally defective tax system developed to appease the lapdogs of demagogues. Social Security is a fundamental component of society.

Where did all these right wingers come from?

user-pic
Ponnuru's op-ed doesn't include a single number or fact about Social Security's future.

Must be because Mr. Ponnuru wrote that in a xanax and martini haze. Must have. Seriously. He'll be hanging on to the National Review and its hollow ideology like a captain going down with his mast.

Facebook

The rich ate it, then spit it outparça kontör

Facebook

ehliyet sınav sonuçları user-pic

Whenever you hear anyone propose social security reform, there is one and only one reform to support:
1. Raise the ceiling on the the payroll taxes (eliminate it) and expand it to non-payroll income.
2. Continue the benefits under current practices (as if the ceiling were not eliminated).
3. Use the surplus thus generated to solve the health care finance problems.direksiyon sınav sonuçları

Facebook

bağkur borç sorgulama

With all the sites out there with information on them with a ton of junk it's nice to find a blog whose admin takes the time to create good material. TY for the good post.

sgk

Facebook

emekli sandığı

I used to be very pleased to discover this site.I needed to we appreciate you this great read!! I definitely enjoying every amount of it and that i have you ever bookmarked to look at new belongings you post.

araç sorgulama

Leave a comment

Advertisement
Please disable your adblocker!
Ads are how we pay the bills!

Subscribe

The Coffee House
TPMCafe's regulars

House Brew
From Your Cafe Editor

Special Guests
Big names and big brains

Special Features
Pressing topics and trends

Table for One
An expert's week-long talk.

All Reader Posts
TPM readers discuss.

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address